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May 20, 2024, 01:45:06 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

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 1 
 on: Today at 01:44:15 PM 
Started by First1There - Last post by DaleCooper
It was great, and a lot more wholesome than you might expect it to be if you haven't seen it before. It also has one of the best sets of sitcom parents ever, in my opinion.

 2 
 on: Today at 01:43:50 PM 
Started by WV222 - Last post by soundchaser
I can't believe this guy lives in Thibodaux, but also, CNN: there's no such thing as "Thibodaux County" (or even Thibodaux Parish, for that matter!)

 3 
 on: Today at 01:43:24 PM 
Started by Obama24 - Last post by Arizona Iced Tea
I've been following US elections for over 50 years and have missed two: 2000, when I predicted the reverse of what happened (Gore winning the EC while losing the PV), and 2016, which a lot of people missed.

At this point I simply don't know who's going to win this year, although I like to think it's a highly informed "don't know" rather than a copout. Wink The race is too close and there's too much time left to predict it objectively with any degree of confidence.  As I've said before, if the election was held today I'd rate Trump as a slight favorite, although far from a certainty; it's certainly within the margin of error.  But there is plenty of time and opportunity for Biden to retake the lead. 

To use a football analogy I've used before, Biden is down a touchdown in the second quarter.  There's plenty of time and the opportunity is certainly there, but he can't just stand pat; he has to actually do the work needed to make up the deficit.
What was it like watching Reagan's landslide in 1984? Were you shocked by him winning almost every state considering it would never happen today or was it considered relatively expected and not a big event?

 4 
 on: Today at 01:41:35 PM 
Started by WV222 - Last post by GeorgiaModerate
New development:



 5 
 on: Today at 01:40:55 PM 
Started by iceman - Last post by President Johnson
What's the sign that Trump gonna lose NC

Your words in God's ear, king.

 6 
 on: Today at 01:39:27 PM 
Started by WV222 - Last post by GeorgiaModerate
Question for our resident lawyers: with the understanding that juries are unpredictable, what's your sense of the trial so far?  Would you rather be the prosecution or the defense at this point?

 7 
 on: Today at 01:39:20 PM 
Started by iceman - Last post by iceman
Georgia is the only state that was remotely close in 2020 where blacks make up a clear majority of Democratic voters. So it would take only a small change in the black vote to flip the state all else being equal. I would look for it most in somewhat integrated areas with a lot of young people.

Could this also make GA-02 in play?

 8 
 on: Today at 01:39:06 PM 
Started by lfromnj - Last post by lfromnj
interesting story.  Don't ask one question as a title and another very different question as the poll question.  It's confusing.

The title question is more open ended while the inside question is just to see if people can tell she's some sort of agent.

 9 
 on: Today at 01:38:22 PM 
Started by BigVic - Last post by wnwnwn
What happened in 1996:
A clear favorite
A lame GOP candidate
A Dem candidate that wasn't appealing to progressives
Not much difference between the candidates' platforms
Lack of foreing policy issue that used to motivate people's fears.
Protectionist apathy?

 10 
 on: Today at 01:38:06 PM 
Started by wbrocks67 - Last post by MR DARK BRANDON
Oddly enough, Biden is getting more Trump 2020 voters than Trump is getting Biden 2020. Turns out barely any Biden 2020 voters are defecting - any of Trump's strength once again comes from - you guessed it - 2020 non-voters

Biden 2020 voters:
Biden 85%
Trump 4%
Not sure/don’t know 6%
Would not vote 3%

Trump 2020 voters:
Trump 69%
Biden 22%
Not sure/don’t know 7%
Would not vote 1%

Did not vote in 2020
Biden 38%
Trump 19%
Not sure/don’t know 16%
Would not vote 23%

https://x.com/blkprofcct/status/1790427325106123239
22% seems hard to believe tbh

It's also a small sample size obv (like n=150) so that could also play a role.

Bigger thing for me is the Biden sample is obv huge (like 1130) and there is little defection to Trump going on.
Fair but I still have my doubts that many voters flip

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