UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wild that in the last 72 hours, we've seen key, totemic figures in the Greens, Conservatives and SNP all either announce the end of their political careers, or have them effectively neutralised.

Starting to assume there's a monkey's paw hidden away in Starmer's desk drawer. Either that - or being a party leader in the 2019 election is actively hazardous to your fate. In which case, someone should warn Siân Berry.

Swinson's fate was short and merciful, in that it took place on the night itself.

How is Swinson faring now? What is life like post-politics for her?

[MaxQue]

Wild that in the last 72 hours, we've seen key, totemic figures in the Greens, Conservatives and SNP all either announce the end of their political careers, or have them effectively neutralised.

Starting to assume there's a monkey's paw hidden away in Starmer's desk drawer. Either that - or being a party leader in the 2019 election is actively hazardous to your fate. In which case, someone should warn Siân Berry.

Sian Berry left Green's leadership in 2021 over being stuck with Shahrar Ali in her shadow team.

[TheTide]

Wild that in the last 72 hours, we've seen key, totemic figures in the Greens, Conservatives and SNP all either announce the end of their political careers, or have them effectively neutralised.

Starting to assume there's a monkey's paw hidden away in Starmer's desk drawer. Either that - or being a party leader in the 2019 election is actively hazardous to your fate. In which case, someone should warn Siân Berry.

Swinson's fate was short and merciful, in that it took place on the night itself.

How is Swinson faring now? What is life like post-politics for her?

She has moved into academia (as I thought before I looked it up).

The Lib Dems really should have stuck with Cable (or convinced him to stay on) in 2019 or elected Davey rather than her. They would have almost certainly have picked off a few more (ugh) 'Blue Wall' seats.

[rc18]

Remember folks, this has absolutely nothing to do with Nicola resigning as First Minister, no siree...

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Wow, what a crazy past couple of days in the UK. Johnson resigning from Parliament and Sturgeon being arrested. Insanity.

[LabourJersey]

With this Sturgeon news and the general atmosphere around them, how far is SNP expected to fall in the next general election?

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1667939881731891203

[Torrain]

With this Sturgeon news and the general atmosphere around them, how far is SNP expected to fall in the next general election?

Still up in the air. Polls are tightening, but the SNP are typically still 5-10% ahead. Their vote is less efficient than Labour’s (which is concentrated in the Central Belt), so losses could be anywhere from 5-20 seats at the minute. But it only takes a few percent more for things to be really upended - and allow either SNP or Labour to edge ahead in total seats.

[afleitch]

It does suggest that we may be nearing the point of charges/no charges being made into the investigation. One outcome will certainly rattle the SNP in the short to medium term. Another would probably galvanise support.

I do think in the meantime Sturgeon should probably be suspended from the SNP as a sitting representative.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

JK Rowling having a normal one.


https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/1667936348701966338

[Alben Barkley]

JK Rowling having a normal one.


https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/1667936348701966338

She’s being sarcastic; she despises Sturgeon and opposes Scottish independence.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

That so many Red Wall voters were conned into voting for him in 2019 reveals just how deep the pro-Tory tabloid rot goes.

The press have been hysterically anti-Labour for over a decade (including Corbyn’s 2017 election), the 2019 result was overwhelmingly down to circumstance and his own doing rather than the Sun printing an extra negative headline.

The media was especially anti Corbyn.

Maybe so, but the point you ignored is that was true for both the 2017 and 2019 elections when Corbyn was leader. Since his popularity fell so much in those two elections, it was mainly not the media but his own failures as party leader that caused it.

While the media was certainly not fair in 2017, they were more biased in 2019.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/MichelleThomson/status/1668199640708046849
Sharing because - a) the screenshot is truly on another level, and b) more substantively, Thomson stepped back from the party whip during her own police investigation, which Sturgeon celebrated, while quietly distancing herself from Thomson. So this could be quiet revenge, rather than a substantive move - but she’s the second SNP MSP, after Ash Regan, to endorse this position today.

Worth noting - Yousaf has ruled out removing the whip in the past hour, and defended Sturgeon, leaning in their “long-term friendship”:
https://twitter.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1668228978853675010

[CumbrianLefty]

I would probably take that stance in his position tbf.

Of course if she is actually charged, then that is very much another matter.

[MacShimidh]

Removing the whip from her would have its advantages though - it would allow him to distance himself from the utter sh*tshow surrounding her, and finally enable him to carve out his own political identity (I know he’s only been in the job a couple of months, but he's been almost completely invisible during that time).

That being said, it would also require a level of ruthlessness which just clearly isn’t there. I know it’s a unionist talking point, but the narrative that it’s really the Greens in charge seems hard to dismiss out of hand at the moment.

[afleitch]

I would probably take that stance in his position tbf.

Of course if she is actually charged, then that is very much another matter.

There's less to be lost in taking that position atm on the back of Sturgeon, unusually, publicly stating that she's innocent.

If she's charged, as you say, that's a different matter.

Removing the whip from her would have its advantages though - it would allow him to distance himself from the utter sh*tshow surrounding her, and finally enable him to carve out his own political identity (I know he’s only been in the job a couple of months, but he's been almost completely invisible during that time).

That being said, it would also require a level of ruthlessness which just clearly isn’t there. I know it’s a unionist talking point, but the narrative that it’s really the Greens in charge seems hard to dismiss out of hand at the moment.

I would have agreed before Sturgeon's intervention. That makes it more difficult in that if what she says is true, and there are no charges, Humza will get no love from his own party. If what she says is true, but there are still charges taken up, she can be suspended prior to any outcome. Which isn't in the slightest bit controversial.

If he suspended her last night, he would get no love from unionists or the SNP rent-a-quotes either. Nothing has been lost in taking this decision. Nothing is gained by doing so.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's not uncommon in complex and sensitive cases for the police to arrest people that they have no intention (on the information that they have) to charge at a later date, the thinking being that it's easier to keep a tighter control of various things that way. That might not be the case in Sturgeon's case, but it could be, and it's the sort of thing that makes speculation difficult.

[Lord Halifax]

It's not uncommon in complex and sensitive cases for the police to arrest people that they have no intention (on the information that they have) to charge at a later date, the thinking being that it's easier to keep a tighter control of various things that way. That might not be the case in Sturgeon's case, but it could be, and it's the sort of thing that makes speculation difficult.

sounds police state-y, is the British public okay with that kind of abuse of authority?

[CumbrianLefty]

Well in most cases I would say they aren't aware that is actually what is going on.

Its only because this case is so high profile that it is even being speculated about.

[Silent Hunter]

Looks like something very serious has happened in Nottingham this morning.

[CumbrianLefty]

Looks like something very serious has happened in Nottingham this morning.

Still not that clear exactly what, though.

[Torrain]

Funny couple of days in Scottish politics, in the aftermath of the arrest:

• SNP MSPs have been a little fractuous. Party establishment have clung to Sturgeon, while those on the edges have been pushing the envelope. You’ve had two (Michelle Thomson, Ash Regan) come out and call for Sturgeon to be suspended from the party for the duration of the investigation – and echo the language Alex Salmond has used on the topic.
• Meanwhile SNP Deputy Leader Keith Brown organised a whip-round amongst MSPs to buy flowers for Sturgeon in sympathy for her arrest. (If my former boss was arrested on suspicion of defrauding our company, I don’t think my mind would immediately turn to gift-giving).
• James Dornan MSP has accused Police Scotland of “some sort of collusion” with the media and questioned whether any evidence existed for the arrests of Murrell, Sturgeon and Beattie, in a rather Trumpian interview with Lewis Goodall.
• And, just as things were calming down, Humza Yousaf decided that he’d stir the pot, with the quite remarkable statement that if MSPs aren’t fully supportive of Sturgeon, they should leave the party.

All in all, there seems to be a confidence amongst SNP MSPs that Sturgeon won't be charged/convicted. Because I just don't see how Yousaf comes back from all of this if she is hauled into court at the end of this mess. You can't describe her as the "greatest politician in Europe for 20 years" (i.e. more effective than Merkel, Blair etc etc), tie yourself to her even after her arrest, and then walk away unharmed if the police decide to press charges.

The only other plausible explanation is that Yousaf simply thinks that drawing a line in the sand here is a way to rebut allegations that he lacks control over his members, and this is where he's decided to take his stand... Which wouldn't seem wise.

Maybe I'm over-focused on this. But Sturgeon's brand was built in no small part on her apparent personal integrity, drawing comparisons with ethical breaches by other politicians, as a way of highlighting her own progressive/ethical credentials. You only need to look at her condemnation of Wendy Alexander (who Sturgeon claimed "brought her own fate upon herself"), to imagine how Sturgeon would be responding if another party leader was in the same place. Which is somewhat ironic, as that play for the moral high ground is essentially out of reach for her successor as long as she's an MSP with the SNP whip.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some incredibly dignified and not in the least bit weird comments from senior officials in the private education industry about Bridget Phillipson have emerged.

[Torrain]

Privilege Committee report has just released - they’ve really thrown the book at him.

90 day suspension recommended prior to resignation, and they also recommend Johnson being denied a former member’s parliamentary pass, effectively barring him from the parliamentary estate like Bercow.

[EastAnglianLefty]

It's not uncommon in complex and sensitive cases for the police to arrest people that they have no intention (on the information that they have) to charge at a later date, the thinking being that it's easier to keep a tighter control of various things that way. That might not be the case in Sturgeon's case, but it could be, and it's the sort of thing that makes speculation difficult.

sounds police state-y, is the British public okay with that kind of abuse of authority?

It's not an abuse of authority, it means that the interview is on the record and you're entitled to legal representation, so the arrestee has the protection of additional structure. It's not unknown for people to refuse to speak to the police unless they intend to make an arrest.