UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[MABA 2020]

Wow he looks impossibly small in this picture

[Torrain]

Ngl, when I first saw this, I assumed Kawcznski was standing next to an undersized cardboard cutout of the PM. Something about just how uncanny it all is.

[lfromnj]

https://news.sky.com/story/royal-air-force-illegally-discriminated-against-white-male-recruits-in-bid-to-boost-diversity-inquiry-finds-12911888

RAF discriminated against white men.

[Torrain]

Zac Goldsmith has resigned from government (he’s been a minister from the Lords ever since he lost his seat in 2019).

He claims it’s fully due to Sunak’s record on the environment (and tbh, he has some real grounds there), but worth noting that he’s doing it within 24 hours of being accused of contempt of parliament by the Privileges Committee.

Full letter here:
https://twitter.com/ZacGoldsmith/status/1674687701834932227

[TheTide]

The timing shows, once again, that he's a useless politician. See also when he resigned and then lost his seat in a by-election and his joke of a Mayoral campaign.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1674736657549991937

[YL]

There are a lot of reasons to be critical of Zac Goldsmith, but the line about Sunak's lack of interest in environmental issues is spot on.

[TheTide]

There are a lot of reasons to be critical of Zac Goldsmith, but the line about Sunak's lack of interest in environmental issues is spot on.

He's an odd character. Originally seen as a fresh, liberal face of conservatism (despite sharing his father's views on the EU) he then ran a baiting campaign for London Mayor. Always been an environmentalist. One of Johnson's most staunch allies. Lacking in charisma and personality despite being telegenic and articulate (in this sense he reminds me of the current Heir to the Throne, who also has an eccentric father as it happens).

[CumbrianLefty]

Goldsmith has apparently said he is happy to apologise for that, and it *is* about green issues.

[Blair]

There are a lot of reasons to be critical of Zac Goldsmith, but the line about Sunak's lack of interest in environmental issues is spot on.

He's an odd character. Originally seen as a fresh, liberal face of conservatism (despite sharing his father's views on the EU) he then ran a baiting campaign for London Mayor. Always been an environmentalist. One of Johnson's most staunch allies. Lacking in charisma and personality despite being telegenic and articulate (in this sense he reminds me of the current Heir to the Throne, who also has an eccentric father as it happens).

And a good reminder that Australian style politics doesn’t always work…

[CumbrianLefty]

He arguably lost that 2016 election by explicitly linking Khan to the 7/7 bombings.

A step too far even for some who might otherwise have been disposed to vote for him.

[afleitch]

There are a lot of reasons to be critical of Zac Goldsmith, but the line about Sunak's lack of interest in environmental issues is spot on.

He's an odd character. Originally seen as a fresh, liberal face of conservatism (despite sharing his father's views on the EU) he then ran a baiting campaign for London Mayor. Always been an environmentalist. One of Johnson's most staunch allies. Lacking in charisma and personality despite being telegenic and articulate (in this sense he reminds me of the current Heir to the Throne, who also has an eccentric father as it happens).

And a good reminder that Australian style politics doesn’t always work…

I don't think it's ever worked, yet is a constant playbook

The Brexit campaign and outcome was textbook British tabloid, forty years in the making.

Though the Tories have now gone transatlantic (lol) and adopting the GOPs midterm losing strategy that will likely not work and tank everyone's reputation in the process.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The whole SADIQ KHAN WILL STEAL YOUR GOLD thing does, very regrettably, appear to have been successful in its main purpose, but because it was so blatant it pretty clearly lost him votes elsewhere.

[Blair]

There’s a rather hilarious piece in the ST about how Rishi has succeeded in everything else in his life and is shocked being PM isn’t working out..

Honestly amazing how little it’s remarked on just how out of touch he is.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

There are a lot of reasons to be critical of Zac Goldsmith, but the line about Sunak's lack of interest in environmental issues is spot on.

He's an odd character. Originally seen as a fresh, liberal face of conservatism (despite sharing his father's views on the EU) he then ran a baiting campaign for London Mayor. Always been an environmentalist. One of Johnson's most staunch allies. Lacking in charisma and personality despite being telegenic and articulate (in this sense he reminds me of the current Heir to the Throne, who also has an eccentric father as it happens).

And a good reminder that Australian style politics doesn’t always work…

I don't think it's ever worked, yet is a constant playbook

It may always fail but this time it will work!…

[CumbrianLefty]

I can't get on Twitter at the minute (thanks to Musk's latest brilliant wheeze of a daily tweet limit) so what exactly is the "Sunak u-Turn" that is currently trending?

[YL]

I can't get on Twitter at the minute (thanks to Musk's latest brilliant wheeze of a daily tweet limit) so what exactly is the "Sunak u-Turn" that is currently trending?

Sunak U-turn on wind farms in England draws wrath of green Tories - Observer story.

See Zac Goldsmith's comments on Sunak and the environment, again.

[YL]

Warning: this post contains analysis of subsamples of polls.

According to "Beyond Topline" on Twitter averaging the 25-49 subsamples in the last four YouGov polls shows Labour 42% ahead among that age group.  This is not so much less than the Labour lead among 18-24s, and if it's remotely accurate it really ought to be worrying the Tories.

(I won't embed the tweet because of Twitter's current problems.)

[afleitch]

Warning: this post contains analysis of subsamples of polls.

According to "Beyond Topline" on Twitter averaging the 25-49 subsamples in the last four YouGov polls shows Labour 42% ahead among that age group.  This is not so much less than the Labour lead among 18-24s, and if it's remotely accurate it really ought to be worrying the Tories.

(I won't embed the tweet because of Twitter's current problems.)

That's been picked up on before. As is the fact that in some polls the Tories still eke out a lead on 65+ voters (who are effectively client voters at this point). While it would be very strange not to, as the Tories just won that group even in 1997 it does highlight the huge age cleavage in British politics over the past decade.

[Torrain]

I was skimming the Times article about the potential suspension of Chris Pincher, and there was this little detail at the end:

Meanwhile, a group of cross-party MPs are drawing up plans that could force a number of Johnson’s allies to apologise in parliament over attacks on the privileges committee. The government has now agreed to allow MPs to debate a motion about the report on July 10.

Opposition MPs are considering an amendment that would ask MPs to vote to rebuke formally Johnson’s supporters who are named. One suggested they could be required to apologise to the Commons and subjected to contempt proceedings if they refused. They believe there are enough Tory moderates who would vote in favour of it for it to pass.

Presumably some deal will be worked out, but could possibly be a bit of parliamentary theatre, that in turn could lead to another round of investigations if MPs like Dorries and Brendan Clarke-Smith continue to dig their heels in.

[Zinneke]

Warning: this post contains analysis of subsamples of polls.

According to "Beyond Topline" on Twitter averaging the 25-49 subsamples in the last four YouGov polls shows Labour 42% ahead among that age group.  This is not so much less than the Labour lead among 18-24s, and if it's remotely accurate it really ought to be worrying the Tories.

(I won't embed the tweet because of Twitter's current problems.)

That's been picked up on before. As is the fact that in some polls the Tories still eke out a lead on 65+ voters (who are effectively client voters at this point). While it would be very strange not to, as the Tories just won that group even in 1997 it does highlight the huge age cleavage in British politics over the past decade.

Which shows you how weak Starmer is when he backs the Triple Lock, which now amounts to a Ponzi scheme if you're under 40.

[EastAnglianLefty]

There’s a rather hilarious piece in the ST about how Rishi has succeeded in everything else in his life and is shocked being PM isn’t working out..

Honestly amazing how little it’s remarked on just how out of touch he is.

It also contains the suggestion that he's thinking of running the election campaign around the strategy of arguing Starmer (62) is too old to become PM. The average age of a Tory voter these days is somewhat north of that.

[CumbrianLefty]

Warning: this post contains analysis of subsamples of polls.

According to "Beyond Topline" on Twitter averaging the 25-49 subsamples in the last four YouGov polls shows Labour 42% ahead among that age group.  This is not so much less than the Labour lead among 18-24s, and if it's remotely accurate it really ought to be worrying the Tories.

(I won't embed the tweet because of Twitter's current problems.)

That's been picked up on before. As is the fact that in some polls the Tories still eke out a lead on 65+ voters (who are effectively client voters at this point). While it would be very strange not to, as the Tories just won that group even in 1997 it does highlight the huge age cleavage in British politics over the past decade.

Which shows you how weak Starmer is when he backs the Triple Lock, which now amounts to a Ponzi scheme if you're under 40.

Starmer is getting some backing from the left over this - which makes sense if you view the solution as making other benefits more generous, rather than pensions less so.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In the end the basic building block of society is the family unit and everyone also eventually gets old (unless they're rather unlucky). The state pension in the UK is also a (relatively) flat benefit paid out on top of whatever other pension scheme the individual in question has rather than a pension scheme as such, which means that there aren't long-term solvency issues. Besides as far as crude electoral logic goes, the pensioners most dependent on the state pension as a proportion of their income also happen to be the pensioners most likely to vote Labour at present.

[Blair]

There’s a rather hilarious piece in the ST about how Rishi has succeeded in everything else in his life and is shocked being PM isn’t working out..

Honestly amazing how little it’s remarked on just how out of touch he is.

It also contains the suggestion that he's thinking of running the election campaign around the strategy of arguing Starmer (62) is too old to become PM. The average age of a Tory voter these days is somewhat north of that.

Also while the job has aged SKS he doesn’t look old- it use to be remarked a lot how he didn’t look like he was in his late 50s when he ran for leader.