European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

EU poll for Germany:



Keep in mind that there is no threshold set for the election to the EU Parliament.
The parties that each sent one member to Strasbourg in 2014 were:
Free Voters (1.5%), Pirates (1.4%), Animal Protection Party (1.2%), NPD (1.0%), Family (0.7%), ÖDP (0.6%), Die PARTEI (0,6%).

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Today, it's Ireland's and Czechia's turn.

[freek]

So there is a chance that 50+, PVV, SP and PvdD may all not reach the threshold making PvdA making gaining more seats. But that they have to return these seats after Brexit as the threshold will be lower which they will all reach as the there will 29 seats to distribute instead of 26 seats

That will not happen. There is a temporary law for the seat distribution post-Brexit. Next week, there will be a distribution of 26 seats, based on a 26-seat threshold.

After Brexit, there will not be a complete reapportionment, exactly because of the scenario of parties losing a seat after reapportionment (or because of an MEP losing his seat to a lower placed candidate because of the lowered preferential seat threshold).

Instead, there will only be an apportionment of three extra seats, based on the 29-seat threshold, but taking the 26 already apportioned seats in account.

[YL]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1131669660385062912

Looks like fairly blatant expectation management to me - Tories will do badly, but *that* badly??

Yeah, given that their best region (his own) has ten seats they shouldn't actually be wiped out.  On the worse polling figures for them, though, that could be the only seat they get.

Meanwhile the final UK poll for this election - by Survation and taken yesterday - has BxP on 31% and Labour second on 23% (still well ahead of the LibDems)

Someone is going to be wrong.

Given the oddness of this election and the difficulty of working out who was actually going to vote, even pollsters who are right may just have got lucky.

[Donerail]

tories enhancing their credibility on brexit by self-brexiting from the EU parliament. very clever strategy.

[Mike88]

Portugal - Last polling before election day:

Aximage poll:

Vote share %:

32.5% PS (+0.8 ), 8/9 seats
25.4% PSD (-3.6), 6/7
11.4% BE (+3.1), 3
  9.3% CDU (+0.9), 2
  6.8% CDS (-0.9), 1/2
  2.5% Alliance (+1.2), 0
  1.4% PAN (+0.1), 0
10.7% Others/Invalid (-1.6), 0

34.2% Turnout (-6.4)*

Poll conducted between 16 and 20 May 2019. Polled 622 voters. MoE of 3.80%.
*Compared with the last poll. Compared with the 2014 election, turnout is up 0.5%.

Eurosondagem poll:

Vote share %:

35.5% PS (+1.5), 9/10
25.5% PSD (-1.6), 7
  7.6% CDU (-0.5), 2
  7.0% CDS (-0.1), 1/2
  6.9% BE (-0.2), 1/2
  2.5% Alliance (-0.8 ), 0/1
  2.5% PAN (-0.8 ), 0/1
12.5% Others/Invalid (+2.5), 0

Poll conducted between 15 and 22 May 2019. Polled 2,025 voters. MoE of 2.18%.

[DavidB.]

Geenstijl has PvdA 6 VVD 4 CDA 4 FVD 3 GL 3 CUSGP 2 D66 2 50Plus 1 PvdD 1 SP 0 PVV 0 volt 2% denk 1%

Was totally hammered when posting this, but this seems to be the 'final prognosis'.

Left-progressive voters form kind of a continuum and right-wing voters also do, even if the 'supply' side of parties does differ drastically in terms of policies offered. Based on the above prognosis (which might still change as PvdD/50Plus/SP/PVV hover around the threshold), the left-progressive parties D66-PvdA-GL-SP-PvdD received 12 seats, just like in 2014. The center-right/right-wing parties VVD-CDA-PVV-FVD-CUSGP received 13, one down from 2014. 50Plus is in with one and completes the picture. This is not much of a change, but that is noteworthy in itself, since almost all other post-2015 elections have seen a shift to the right. This one didn't.

However, euroskeptics lost a little bit compared to 2014. The combined score of FVD-PVV should still be up, somewhere in the 14% range (a far cry from the 21.5% or so in the PS election earlier this year), but the PVV is below the threshold, resulting in a net loss for nationalists. The anti-Timmermans ad by the SP completely backfired on them and might actually have been what won Timmermans the election. On the other hand, Eurofederalist PvdA and GL won. The PvdA's story is mostly because of Timmermans and they're still not getting anything close to 18% in a GE (Asscher was derided for sort-of claiming the victory), but at the same time it wouldn't have been possible without Asscher's work in parliament and as party leader: Asscher did create the conditions without which people would not have been willing to look into the PvdA anymore in the first place. Partly a case of time healing some wounds, but Asscher has done a good job at coming across as nuanced and constructive, which many left-progressive voters value. Timmermans, then, showed that there is a substantial number of people who are actually willing to vote for more EU and, perhaps, also cast a vote against the 'nationalist tide': he was the one who most embodied 'anti-populism'. The Netherlands is one of these countries where the mood on the EU swang the most following Brexit, which is part of the reason why Nexiteer parties bombed. What's more, there's this lesson the PVV learned in 2012 already when making the EU the centerpiece of their campaign: a lot more voters are anti-immigration than anti-EU.

A lot of people are clearly willing to give the PvdA another chance. Which has probably killed off the idea of a combined GL-PvdA list in the next election. GL's gains are good in the light of the PvdA's victory, but in a low-turnout election they should still be doing much better than the GE17 result, not just a little better. They have had a series of disappointingly low gains recently. Still, Klaver's narrative of a slow but steady rise can probably live on.

Another party with disappointing gains was FVD. While the party and its EP leader Eppink have relatively nuanced views on the EU on paper, Baudet, very much a Nexiteer, captured all the attention with his views, his controversial tweets (among which a video by the Austrian Identitarians which he retweeted), and with an essay touching on the negative side-effects of abortion, women's emancipation and euthanasia. The latter is particularly electorally toxic and it probably cost us at least one seat, seriously jeopardizing the narrative of Forum as the party to watch - we're only the fourth party now. Shows that at this point in the party's life, free attention isn't necessarily always good anymore. A valuable lesson to learn for more important elections.

[Omega21]

Geenstijl has PvdA 6 VVD 4 CDA 4 FVD 3 GL 3 CUSGP 2 D66 2 50Plus 1 PvdD 1 SP 0 PVV 0 volt 2% denk 1%

Another party with disappointing gains was FVD. While the party and its EP leader Eppink have relatively nuanced views on the EU on paper, Baudet, very much a Nexiteer, captured all the attention with his views, his controversial tweets (among which a video by the Austrian Identitarians which he retweeted), and with an essay touching on the negative side-effects of abortion, women's emancipation and euthanasia. The latter is particularly electorally toxic and it probably cost us at least one seat, in addition to seriously jeopardizing the narrative of Forum as the party to watch - we're only the fourth party now. Shows that at this point in the party's life, free attention isn't necessarily always good anymore. A valuable lesson to learn for more important elections.

Still a solid result, but I agree, this type of attention is not really something you need, and it only pushes away potential voters...

You know I'm right wing, but I never like very extreme positions, partly because they don't work.

The current polarization in some countries is leading to one side playing with the idea of an EU exit, while the other is pushing for a Federal EU.

If asked to choose, I feel most would choose more EU instead of no EU, even if they don't want to give more power to the bureaucrats. Personally, I would like to see more democracy and swift reform in the EU, and IMO the right should go for that, as it is more realistic, and most likely more beneficial.

As for the women's emancipation and other essays, no need to comment, it's toxic af...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

tbh the most frightening development of the populist right will be when they figure out that their Eurosceptic agenda is much less appealing for the general European public (outside of odd Greek bailout style situations) than their anti-immigration schtick. I would not be surprised if the next generation of the populist right synthesizes cuts on migration/repatriation with pro-EU sentiment or even Eurofederalism (i.e. "the forces of Europe and Judeo-Christian values need to come together to fight against the horde etc).

[Walmart_shopper]

tbh the most frightening development of the populist right will be when they figure out that their Eurosceptic agenda is much less appealing for the general European public (outside of odd Greek bailout style situations) than their anti-immigration schtick. I would not be surprised if the next generation of the populist right synthesizes cuts on migration/repatriation with pro-EU sentiment or even Eurofederalism (i.e. "the forces of Europe and Judeo-Christian values need to come together to fight against the horde etc).

I do think that outside of the UK this has already been realized, and even within the UK traditional politesse allowed the xenophobia to assume a cloak of dignified, sovereignty-seeking brexisteerism. Most far right parties don't even bother with the cloak and only oppose the EU in a refracted way because the EU allows too many dark people in.

[Lord Halifax]

If asked to choose, I feel most would choose more EU instead of no EU, even if they don't want to give more power to the bureaucrats. Personally, I would like to see more democracy and swift reform in the EU, and IMO the right should go for that[/b], as it is more realistic, and most likely more beneficial.

More democracy on a European level would undermine the power of the nation states, so that's not an advantage for the nationalist right.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1131902885766356992

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1131902885766356992

this is extremely unsurprising. Heck, I wouldn't be bowled over if Labour are lower than the Greens there.

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1131902885766356992

this is extremely unsurprising. Heck, I wouldn't be bowled over if Labour are lower than the Greens there.

It's their leader's seat though.

[DaWN]

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1131902885766356992

this is extremely unsurprising. Heck, I wouldn't be bowled over if Labour are lower than the Greens there.

It's their leader's seat though.

Yes, but the voting patterns in this very odd election won't even come close to translating to a general election (despite how hilarious and wonderful it would be if it did). All it would be is exceptionally embarrassing and be indicative of bigger problems elsewhere, which frankly was always likely to be the prognosis for Labour from this election.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1131902885766356992

this is extremely unsurprising. Heck, I wouldn't be bowled over if Labour are lower than the Greens there.

It's their leader's seat though.

I'm well aware of that. Islington has often has pockets of lIb Dem strength, although more in the southern seat (that of Emily Thornberry), which was a Lib/Lab marginal in the 2005 and 2010 elections (and an SDP/Lab marginal in the Thatcher years). Point is, Islington was always going to be bad for Labour in a low turnout election polarised on the Brexit issue. In a real election, if Corbyn himself is in danger Labour are just being obliterated 1931 style.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Who 'wins' where is, honestly, beyond irrelevant. Even more than usually. And it never matters.

[Serenity Now]

tbh the most frightening development of the populist right will be when they figure out that their Eurosceptic agenda is much less appealing for the general European public (outside of odd Greek bailout style situations) than their anti-immigration schtick. I would not be surprised if the next generation of the populist right synthesizes cuts on migration/repatriation with pro-EU sentiment or even Eurofederalism (i.e. "the forces of Europe and Judeo-Christian values need to come together to fight against the horde etc).

If I remember correctly, Oswald Mosley was quite into something like this in the form of his 'Europe a Nation' policy.

[Zinneke]

Who 'wins' where is, honestly, beyond irrelevant. Even more than usually. And it never matters.

It's pretty relevant to those who have previously worked with usually qualified MEPs from the UK, regardless of red or blue and instead have to deal with the Revolutionary Communist Party for 3-4 months . My point mainly being that although this election has no consequences to internal British politics other than grassroots signalling to the two main parties, for the EU institutional maze it's something of a headache when selecting the next Commissioner.

And are you also really saying Corbyn will not be undermined if his base deserts him for Green on one side LibDem on the other?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And are you also really saying Corbyn will not be undermined if his base deserts him for Green on one side LibDem on the other?

Well it's possible that the mickey mouse elections and the patterns in them might matter a bit in that sort of sense, sure. Otherwise, no. Meaningless.

[Tender Branson]

HUGE enthusiastic crowd at the FPÖs closing event in Vienna right now.

It’s possible that the FPÖ will not lose as much as the scandal would suggest ...

[Tender Branson]

Almost 700.000 postal ballots have been issued, a new record for an EU election.

In 2014, about 444.000 were requested and for the federal election in 2017 about 890.000

Tirol and Salzburg had the biggest increases, with almost double the amount of 2014.

https://www.bmi.gv.at/412/Europawahlen/Europawahl_2019/files/ausgestellte_WK_EW_19.pdf

Usually, this would suggest much higher turnout on Sunday.

[Walmart_shopper]

HUGE enthusiastic crowd at the FPÖs closing event in Vienna right now.

It’s possible that the FPÖ will not lose as much as the scandal would suggest ...

I'm not sure why you think the Ibiza scandal really would suggest a collapse in the FPO. The kinds of people who vote FPO would hardly be scandalized by Russophilia, and indeed would view the scandal as vindication that the mainstream in their country is really out to get them (and obviously they are). The quaint world of the far right is totally self-confirmatory. That's why it's hard to beat them.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Razem just got the biggest amount of media coverage since last parliamentary elections because Pamela Anderson endorsed them on Twitter.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Razem just got the biggest amount of media coverage since last parliamentary elections because Pamela Anderson endorsed them on Twitter.

It's 4,9% time.