European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Zinneke]

I'm thinking we make this thread a general EU-level politics one. I get that there is a psephological argument for seperating what MEPs the countries send to the parliament and the actual conduct of the latter and the other institutions, but there's some big developments coming up before the campaign actually starts that are worth documenting.

The election of the new ECB staff is arguably going to affect Italy and Europe more than their own elections. Yet as per usual it is done in a backroom process of complex intergovernmental interests. While the vice-president is decided soon, the real contest is for 2019 when Mario Draghi, the influential ECB figure behind "saving the Euro at any cost" and expansionist monetary policy, steps down. The frontrunner is German Jens Weidmann, who is far more conservative and potentially disastrous for southern economies that have benefited from Draghi's measures.  

Next thorny issue is the EU budget. As a remind the EU budget is largely used for competences where the EU has exclusive right to act (outside of Member-state interference). It is funded by 1% of GNI, plus the Value Added Tax and tariffs that goes straight to the EU and other miscellaneous resources (fines). Now remember the UK was both a major contributor but also had a rebate/refund mechanism ensuring it "got its money back", to use Thatcher's phrase. Still, the major debate at the summit is replacing the UK hole and if so what with.  

There's also been a general push to make all these decision making meetings more transparent, which raises further controversy. The new portuguese president wants to make the Eurogroup meetings more transparent after the Varoufakis episode where it was basically his word verus Dijsselbloem's as to what actually happened. And the EU Ombudsmann wants to have some comittees and council meetings minutes released. If EU-wide debates like the Greek debt crisis become about "their word versus mine", it won't look good.

It's the question what will happen with ECR now that the Tories will be gone. This group is already a bit of a hotchpotch, with secular-ish conservative parties (Tories, ODS), secular parties that are not even really conservative (N-VA),

That's a bit harsh, N-VA's leadership are more conservative in the European tradition than a lot of self-proclaimed conservatives who are either really social reactionaries with radical change of the European scale, or parties with Christian Democratic traditions. But I think you meant in the American sense. I think they will miss the ECR, because I can't see them joining the Green group with Lamberts at its head, and CD&V might continue to veto their EPP membership. Maybe the Convergents will lobby for them to join ALDE, but Verhofstadt will not like this.

Moscovici and Timmermans has also been touted as candidates, but meh. I don't know if any of the former PMs would be interested. Renzi? Thorning? Di Rupo?

I really doubt Di Rupo will take over even though his career at federal level here is over. Hes swinging the PS towards the eurocritical left, and has very little political capital left at home. He might run as an MEP but he faces an internal election process for this and if he leads the PS to destruction in the locals he'll be gone.

If Renzi decides to stay in PES he might have a go, providing his political capital hasn't extinguished back at home.

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Lamberts will probably be the male candidate, Keller or a high profile national Green politician as the female.

GUE will probably use a national figure with some European platform like last time. Mélenchon as a figure head?


Key questions as to the actual overall EP election result

• Where macron ends up (already alluded to). I think he may have to bite his tongue and form a coalition with ALDE but he clearly would like a coalition similar to his government. left-of-center Social democrats, pro-EU pragmatic Greens, and economic liberals who aren't too keen on identity issues. But looking at the above projection he could be a kingmaker in the EP, which is a powerful position to have
• Turnout, particularly youth turnout. If there is to be any accountability on a European level, and if the Spitzenkandidaten are ever going to work, there will need to be a European demos. The reason the Netherlands have CDA as their largest party in a EU election was clearly turnout, as freek said
• Related to the above, how much the electorates treat this as a sort of national midterm rather than an election on Europe. This varies from country to country. For Belgium for example, we have it on the same day as our federal and regional, but on the other hand we have experience of multi-level governance now, and vote according to competences. Hence why VLD (Verhofstadt) and the Green parties slightly over-performed compared to their federal results. How different electorates treat these elections is ultimately going to decide the outcome

[Zinneke]

I truly wonder for which party I will vote.

[Zinneke]

I truly wonder for which party I will vote.

Lol, I'm pro European Union

Vanne.

depends - do he and Verhofstadt get on?

Verhofstadt's admiration for Macron is what it is given he prostituted himself to M5S for more status in Brussels.

[Zinneke]

I found an article that seems pretty interesting and goes into depth about the backroom deals being developed. One thing that really caught my attention was this:

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Now this would be something.

I don't see Fidesz switching. While they may occasionally mildly criticise Orbán when it's untenable to do otherwise, the EPP has given him so much political cover in practice. Why abandon that?

Hypothetically : Because a wing of the EPP will say to the main players in the party (read : the Franco-Germans) : its either Fidesz or us. And they may have Macron as a bridge to form a more europhile group with some of the ALDE. 

I also think Selmayr and a couple of europhile German MEPs in his camp (led by his mentor/tyrant Brok) are also sharpening the knives on Orban. This is ironic because it was Kohl's CDU that decided that the EPP should just be a broad tent of right-wing to centrist parties rather than exclusively in the European Christian Democratic tradition.

Either way I don't think things are looking particularly rosy for the EPP. French LR might get eviscerated. Forza Italia won't perform in Europeans unless an emerging M5S-Lega government becomes a circus act. And their traditional S&D "frenemies" will be weakened too. If the EPP is left looking for new partners then Fidesz could switch groups and still maintain their influence in Brussels. They'll have just timed their switch far better than David Cameron did.

[Zinneke]

It's hard to divine the intentions behind the movements of the Europarties, but it doesn't really matter because they don't do any campaigning anyway. I mean, it might matter if racists like Geert Wilders and anti-European gadflies like Le Pen were going to win, but they are not.

Agreed, however there is still value in the macro parties in the sense that even some weak form of party discipline is more effecient policymaking than no parties whatsoever. The actual members of the EPP (as opposed to the ones that just sit in the group) for example are well whipped on technical issues that don't make national media enough to have an electoral impact (which is like 80% of the EP's actual power). Some get picked off by lobbying/national interest but eventually even the fanatical lobbyists would enjoy a system where you can walk into one faction leader's office and not 27.

But you're right We'll only see this more clearly if/when the EPP-SnD-ALDE triumvirate of establishment or "pro-Maastricht" parties lose a majority and some more interesting coalitions will have to take place.

[Zinneke]

Also saw this today:
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/996765544459243520
Any other "eco-socialist" parties that could join them? I guess it's doubtful the Portuguese, Greeks and Danes make it in, though...

This must be the Varoufakis project, DiEM25. So his own new party, MeRA 25, will probably run with them as well, but I have no idea whether he will able to win a seat in Greece. I think the Czech Pirates is a part of it, and they would likely do very well. Barcelona mayor Ada Colau has been involved too, but I don't know whether any of the parties backing her could join. Unlike Eurovision, Australia won't take part, so I guess we won't see the Wikileaks Party

Lol, what would this be, the "we used to be famous" group?

Given the Belgian PS looks like it wants to join this movement, yes.

[Zinneke]

GUE-NL might do well. They'll at least have a few (new) seats from Belgium, and also would win a bit in the Netherlands, Sweden and France.

Isn't there now a cold war between FI, UP and Scandinavians in one team and Linke and Syriza in another team? As far as I know Melenchon started some new political pan-European initiative.

Yes, and it will boil over when it comes to selecting the Spitzenkandidaten. FI tried to expel Syriza, and they generally do not get on well with Die Linke.

They´ll most likely stick together though

[Zinneke]

What with the talk about Macron's attempt to create his own European Parliament grouping, everyone seems to have missed that Mélenchon seems to be trying to do the same thing. It seems to be the result of him getting pissed off with GUE/NGL refusing to expel SYRIZA for being sellouts and trying to launch his own Eurosceptic left-wing movement.

Utter vanity though this may be, it's probably still more interesting than what Varoufakis and Hamon are doing, given that it's made up of parties that are actually somewhat successful in their home countries and likely to win seats in the European Parliament. They would, however, need a seventh country for an EP group, and I'm not sure who that could be? Sahra Wagenknecht's movement is the natural missing link, but we're still not even sure if that will even contest elections. The Belgian PTB/PVDA, perhaps (though they might be a little too orthodox), or the Slovenian Left. One to watch, anyway.

Hmm, i believe the Belgian PVDA-PTB might follow FI, because it's very popular currently in French-speaking Belgium, and French-speaking Belgium has of course followed the French presidential campaign in which JLM did very well. Someone even made a new (irrelevant) party that was named Wallonie Insoumise, based on FI (which could ally with other far-left groups / parties in a far-left alliance in French-speaking Belgium to contest the 2019 European, federal and regional elections, just like they've done in 2014). I also believe the Flemish far-left also feels more related to the Scandinavian Left Parties, than of Eastern-European far-left parties. I receive the party magazine every two months, and it has often articles in it, in which they talk with pride about the success of Ada Colau in Barcelona, esp. in relationship with the upcoming local elections here in Belgium.

PVDA-PTB will most likely win 1-3 seats.

Intersting. I was told the "new" PVDA-PTB (post-Ludo Martens) and Podemos have a same intellectual "godmother" in the form of Chantalle Mouffe, who also influenced Mélenchon's 2017 campaign. and her emphasis on localism is what helped both you guys and Podemos become implanted electorally. No surprise Colau is popular.

I think though that PVDA-PTB never really criticise the EU the way Méluche does. They talk about social dumping, ending neo-liberal hegemony in Europe, etc. But they, perhaps wisely, never commit to anti-European rhetoric the way Meluche does.

EDIT ; and on the subject of the N-VA, I find it hard to see them joining ALDE led by Verhofstadt.

[Zinneke]

Does someone also know why Die Linke keeps supporting Syriza or doesn't join Melenchon's movement,

Die Linke don't like Mélenchon for personal reasons (he tries to run the group like he runs his "party"/movement, and let's be blunt, he's a massive c***) and for the pretty anti-German xenophobic rhetoric - he litteraly wrote a book called Le Hareng de Bismarck where he blames Germany for pretty much everything.  I also gather Die Linke see themselves as more a testimonial party in the European political scene than the French. Add to that the heavy dose of ideological secterianism that runs through the entire European left and its easy to see why they don't see eye to eye.

GUE will not split though. At worst 1 or 2 will leave but money always talks. Even with the far left.

[Zinneke]

Which group shall N-VA join. It does not feel natural ally of Lega.

The Lega are in ENF and the N-VA are in ECR, so they're currently not in the same group in the first place. I think it's not unlikely the N-VA will be leaving ECR after the Tories are gone and PiS will take over the place: the group will be dominated by right-wing populists of a different, more nativist and anti-establishment type than the N-VA. I guess N-VA could join the EPP or ALDE, with EPP being more likely (but CD&V or MR/Open VLD would have to be okay with it, which is why it didn't happen last time; perhaps it's different now that they have been in a coalition for four years). But they could stay in ECR too.

I'm placing my bets on Dutch Forum voor Democratie, who are likely to win 2-3 seats, joining ECR. Their youth movement, JFVD, are already in the process of being associated with the European Young Conservatives, ECR's youth movement. After the UK Tories are gone, it's probably a right fit for FVD. Associating themselves with somewhat less controversial RRWPs like Finnish PS, Swedish SD and Danish DF seems like a good move. Dutch CU-SGP are already in ECR but I don't think the SGP would mind sitting with FVD; the CU representative might be less happy, however, and I don't know if they could veto it. Though FVD arguably fit much better in ECR than CU and will probably bring more seats with them.

If Puigdemont gets on the list and N-VA joins EPP, than Puigdemont and members of PP would both be part of EPP. I believe it won't happen though and CD&V which is called the opposition party inside our government will probably veto it. I see N-VA having more chance to apply for ALDE as a conservative-liberal party just like VVD and PdeCAT. Though, it would still be weird in some sense, because I remember lots of N-VA politicians be critical of Europe in general, and some on the right and youth wings supporting Le Pen in that race vs Macron. But those EU fractions are inevitably a big tent.

Well, the thing is that PDECat might be expelled from ALDE anyways (probably because of Cs pressure). The ALDE gropup seems to be preparing for that at least. So expelling PDECat while including N-VA wouldn't make much sense honestly.  EPP probably wouldn't include them either. Especially if Puigdemont gets on the list (he seems to deny this though)

Apparently N-VA was a member of the EFA for a while. Maybe they can go back there?

I explained in the 2014 thread that back when the N-VA had a single member that was part of the EPP but when the N-VA divorced with CD&V she was kicked out. She was part of the left(ish) wing of the party, pro-EU and voted a lot with the Greens/EFA group, so they let her in. Now the N-VA have a much more right-wing grouping, some of whom aren't necessarily even that nationalist. If Lamberts remains Vice-President of G/EFA and influential he will never allow them to rejoin.

N-VA's main issue is that because EP elections coincide with our federals, every other party in Belgium cannot afford to associate itself with it even on a European level during the campaign.

[Zinneke]

According to Le Vif, Verhofstadt made the approach to LREM without consulting MR, which pissed them off. But there have been meetings between Chastel (MR) and Castener (LREM) and although MR have rightened their discourse they are still "Eurofederalist" (as you call it).

Back when he was still popular, There was a general tug of war between MR, cdH and Défi to ride on the Macronista wave. Like Lakigigar said French politics can have a small influence on francophone electoral moods and movements. Its quite important to get Macron's backing, depending on his popularity.

Same for VLD. They know Verhofstadt is an asset. And their electorate really don't tend to be in any way eurosceptic enough to pull the rug out from him.

[Zinneke]

EDIT ; and on the subject of the N-VA, I find it hard to see them joining ALDE led by Verhofstadt.

Didn't they very briefly negotiate with Verhofstadt back in 2014? I swear I can remember Béatrice Delvaux being absolutely furious at the time that he was even considering it.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/eu-elections-2014/news/liberals-embarrassed-as-n-va-joins-ecr-making-it-third-largest-parliament-group/

ALDE were ready to let them in, but this was because of pressure from the Catalans and VVD iirc. Verhofstadt was never enthusiastic about it, and N-VA voted to join ECR, so he probably felt double crossed by this alone. They did it on the basis of freedom of vote, but let's also be honest : ten years ago I could see N-VA easily joining ALDE. Now, even if its just some Northen European neo-liberals who dogwhistle anti-Southern rhetoric (sound familiar?), N-VA would still rather continue to be in a "right-wing populist" group. Like Lakigigar alluded too there are too many people who are sympathetic to the traditional far right in the party now, and Francken's meteoric rise - and he is still rumoured to be somewhere on N-VA's European list - has undoubtedly reenforced this.

In terms of the current campaign, I think Verhofstadt himself wouldn't mind that much if it furthered his European ambitions (he negotiated with M5S ffs). Its his party that would probably not allow it because it undermines the way they distinguish themselves from the N-VA on every level of government.

[Zinneke]

@mileslunn Macron made a deal with Verhofstadt but it will have little effect on the overall ambition of the Alde leader to have a Europe-wide campaign. The "Macron" effect will only be felt in Belgium, and negatively if things continue. Most electorates in Europe care little for the European party configurations and their neighbours politics, even if we are starting to share the same political concerns.

[Zinneke]

It's worth noting that CHUK is up a couple of points in all recent polls, despite their launch having been universally agreed to be deeply unimpressive. Which suggests that a) there's still a good chance of vote-splitting amongst the pro-remain parties leading to them missing out on seats and b) most of the country still isn't paying much attention.

Welcome to the forum.

Is there a risk of Remain parties blocking each other from a lot of seats? I know this is already the case in places like Northern Ireland

[Zinneke]

It's worth noting that CHUK is up a couple of points in all recent polls, despite their launch having been universally agreed to be deeply unimpressive. Which suggests that a) there's still a good chance of vote-splitting amongst the pro-remain parties leading to them missing out on seats and b) most of the country still isn't paying much attention.

Welcome to the forum.

Is there a risk of Remain parties blocking each other from a lot of seats? I know this is already the case in places like Northern Ireland

Since Northern Ireland uses STV, that should basically be the only part of the UK where parties are not really blocking each other in the European elections.

Given there are 3 seats and that the first 2 are essentially SF-DUP lockdowns, the remainers could still get in each others way for the 3rd and UUP slip in. Otherwise Alliance and SDLP wouldn't be deployed such heavy hitters and would be comfortably looking at beating the UUP, although in the SDLP's case its probably their leader's last throw of the dice before he is deposed.

The question is of course whether they should have allied? Change UK does not seem to agree on a whole lot apart from opposition to Brexit, so they were perhaps the keenest on a apolitical anti-Brexit alliance (a Brexit Party opposite). But Lib Dems and Greens are real parties with real policies (who differ quite a lot), so I think it makes sense for them to continue with their own identities.

Oh yeah even I personally think that even "CHUK" shouldn't go into an electoral pact with the LibDems and especially not the Greens, basically because they need to test their overall reach with their current message before a potential GE, and the proportional EP vote (that may or may not be legislation-wise insignificant) is a great way to do that. 

It will be interesting though if UKIP slip in in a couple of areas because CHUK and Greens combined didn't reach the threshold when I imagine some of those voters are Remain Labour who want to send a message to Corbyn. They will have done so anyway when the national results are presented, but does not bode well for the EP itself...

[Zinneke]

MEanwhile, the TV debate with all German top candidates were foregathering.
Only the green Power Ranger was missing.

And Sonneborn

[Zinneke]

Lib Dem S U R G E

I hope that this is a more fundamental political realignment, with Brexit Party and the Lib Dems becoming the 2 main parties.

I think it's more likely that the Tories co-opt the values and principles of the Brexit Party (Boris will help with that) with its base in the middle class Midlands and Labour becomes a London-centered globalist liberal party, essentially co-opting the LibDems.

Given the new membership of the party, and its central command, this is wishful thinking. It is London centric though.

[Zinneke]

Any dutch people with a link that I can use outside the NL? dankje!

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1131902885766356992

this is extremely unsurprising. Heck, I wouldn't be bowled over if Labour are lower than the Greens there.

It's their leader's seat though.

[Zinneke]

Who 'wins' where is, honestly, beyond irrelevant. Even more than usually. And it never matters.

It's pretty relevant to those who have previously worked with usually qualified MEPs from the UK, regardless of red or blue and instead have to deal with the Revolutionary Communist Party for 3-4 months . My point mainly being that although this election has no consequences to internal British politics other than grassroots signalling to the two main parties, for the EU institutional maze it's something of a headache when selecting the next Commissioner.

And are you also really saying Corbyn will not be undermined if his base deserts him for Green on one side LibDem on the other?

[Zinneke]

Yeah I remember last time out in the locals it closed at noon. Think a lot of young people were still recovering from the previous night.

[Zinneke]

Junts I suppose.

I believe JxCat has applied to join the G/EFA group (alongside ERC). Not sure if their application will be successful, but it is a possibility. N-VA was in that group for a while after all

Though seeing Puigdemont and Farage belong to the same Eurogroup would be hilarious

N-VA are still a part of the EFA organisation, just not the grouping because they obviously vote differently to the Greens so it helps policy makers and them.

I think Farage and his Kippers have actually always been supportive of Catalonia, he made several speeches. Its Puigdemont who needs to consider whether he would want to be associated with someone like that.

Really disappointed ECR accept Vox though. Zarodil's pan-European ''campaign'' was actually not that bad, a sensible Eurosceptic position a lot like Rutte's. Now they accept bread and butter neo-fascist sympathisers and immature provocateurs.

[Zinneke]

Dacian Ciolos (Romania) wins Renew Europe (ex ALDE) leadership vote. He beats  Sophie In’t Veld (Netherlands, D66) 65 to 41 votes. The third candidate Fredrick Ferderley (Sweden, Centre) withdrew

Not sure it was mentioned but Loiseau was supposed to be a shoe in but cocked up in typical french fashion by slagging off In 't Veld and other prominent members from her own grouping.

[Zinneke]

The Spitzenkandidat system was never going to work out as intended whenever serious coalition building was involved. It would have been more undemocratic to impose Weber when he has the backing of less than a quarter of the parliament. Parliamentary systems in any country involve negotiations between parties when no one has an absolute majority (except in Canada, because Canada is weird and f**ked up).

That doesn't mean it's worthless. It's still good to have a general "first offer" to see where a party stands. And sometime one of them might actually be selected if they're accepted to the coalition partners. That is, again, how normal parliamentary systems work.

What the hell, I tend to be a pretty informed voter and I heard nothing about this process in Portugal, only the programs and stakes for the national parties. The EU has a real problem with communications, it won't be seen as trying to be more democratic in plenty of countries continuing like this.

This.

[Zinneke]

Also very disrespectful to the voters, whom voted for the top-candidates. Weber or Timmermanns should get it.

Don't be ridiculous. The number of European voters who cared or even knew about the spitzenkandidaten are negligible. I'm a political nerd and probably belongs to a group of at most 1% of Swedish voters who even know who Weber or Timmermanns are and even I had to google them to remember what they actually look like. Outside of Germany and the Netherlands I'm pretty sure they're about as well known as they are here and people voted for their national parties because of their policies and their national candidates.

I'm not particularly impressed by Von der Leyen (it feels like its just more of the same terrible Junker-leadership and ideals) but thinking that Weber or Timmermanns has more of a mandate to become Commission President is not grounded in reality.

Then we need transnational lists.