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I think more likely we could be in an anti incumbency era where incumbent presidents fail to win reelection. Keep in mind this was also the case from 1836-1896 when no incumbent outside Lincoln and Grant got reelected so its not like its unprecedent.

If Trump wins he obviously won’t be able to run again so that would mean we would go at least 12 years without a two term president since we would not have had a president with two consecutive terms.

I just got polled for a Quinnipiac presidential poll.  It was a lot of questions about Israel-Palestine and Russia-Ukraine, whether we trust Trump or Biden more on various issues, a few about Trump's New York trial, and a couple random ones (in addition to and 2 and 5 way toplines).

I hope you realized it was a scam before you gave them your social security number.

I'm sure all blue avatars will just ignore this matter like they did with the millions Clarence Thomas got from his billionaire friends with cases before the SCOTUS.
Amirite?

Portugal poll, from Duplimétrica-IPESPE to TVI/CNN Portugal:   

Vote share %: (Compared with 2019)

34% PS (+1)
32% PSD/CDS/PPM (+4)
10% CHEGA (+9)
  9% IL (+8)
  3% BE (-7)
  3% CDU (-4)
  3% Livre (+1)
  1% PAN (-4)
  5% Others/Invalid (-8)

Poll conducted bewteen 6 and 13 May 2024. Polled 800 votes. MoE of 3.50%.

Doesn't change my opinion of him as being very fair to both sides in this case. I also don't think judges should be prohibited from making political contributions.

https://twitter.com/frankrunyeon/status/1791576159496335807
Paywall-free article: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/complaint-dismissed-against-trump-hush-money-judge-who-donated-biden-2024-05-17/

Why is Trudeau so unpopular among Sikhs?

American tipping culture is out of control.

[the bus]

It's telling that he threw his wife under the bus. Not once do conservatives ever take responsibility, they always find someone else to blame even if it's family.

& quite literally at that!

https://twitter.com/jbendery/status/1791563461639418111

I spoke directly with Justice #Alito about the flag story in the NYT.  In addition to what's in the story, he told me a neighbor on their street had a "F--- Trump" sign that was within 50 feet of where children await the school bus in Jan 21.  Mrs. Alito brought this up with the neighbor.

According to Justice Alito, things escalated and the neighbor put up a sign personally addressing Mrs. Alito and blaming her for the Jan 6th attacks.

Justice Alito says he and his wife were walking in the neighborhood and there were words between Mrs. Alito and a male at the home with the sign.  Alito says the man engaged in vulgar language, "including the c-word".

Following that exchange, Mrs. Alito was distraught and hung the flag upside down "for a short time".  Justice Alito says some neighbors on his street are "very political" and acknowledges it was a very heated time in January 2021.

https://twitter.com/HolmesLybrand/status/1791530761243246685
"Believe me, 'Mrs.' Alito was just so distraught at our neighbors thinking of us as kind & well-liked. The bare minimum requires bringing the c-word into the discussion! Don't they know why I'm such a crotchety old man!?"

I'm honestly kind of surprised that there's belief that the BJP/NDA will lose a significant portion of seats. Given Modi-Shah's tenacity, what we saw in Surat, public fervor over the Ram temple, my expectation is that at worst they match 2019 or even gain some seats. I might be completely off the mark here but that's my feeling.

I could see them losing some ground in Bihar but making it up in West Bengal.

I do think the BJP will lose some seats overall as keep in mind in 2019 the NDA swept Rajasthan, won 26/28 in Karnataka, won 28/29 in MP, won 39/40 in Bihar so I do think its very possible you could see losses here which cant be made up in West Bengal.

Now the question whether the BJP makes gains or not comes down to whether they can make gains in UP or not as the NDA did lose 9 seats of their 2014 totals there(down from 73 to 64) so if they can get back into the 70s in UP then I think its likely for them to make gains.

At this time though I think we will see the NDA finish somewhere in the low 340s as the total which is higher than 2014 but less than 2019