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Only Minnesota is a plausible and conceivable flip. New Jersey and Virginia is just too suburban and too affluent for Trump to win.

Virginia and Colorado are the 2 ex-battleground states that won’t vote GOP again in the foreseeable future in today’s political alignments.

I think Trump gains in the suburbs, but yeah there are no major inner cities in either NJ or VA for Trump to make major gains in.

NOVA does have a statistically meaningful Muslim and South Asian vote, though.  And there's more pro-life presence in the suburbs than NJ or MN.  FWIW he districts in the state legislature where they are clustered are usually like 75D/25R, but they only voted like 65D/35R last year.

I still think the answer's MN because of how close it was in 2016, but the  apparentNorth/South polarization does give me pause.

It is really North/South polarization or just polling underestimating Trump in the Rust Belt again? I mostly see urban/rural depolarization from NYT. In this case MN and WI do not vote that far apart.

What a pity this country has become when the opposition party resorting to impeachment has become a norm.

What choice did Democrats have after his outrageous crimes? You're not seriously suggesting that either of his impeachments were the wrong response?

MN of course, but it would be nice to get some good quality polling in Virginia. I don't expect Trump has any real chance to win VA, but I think the margin to be more like 2016 than 2020.

Only Minnesota is a plausible and conceivable flip. New Jersey and Virginia is just too suburban and too affluent for Trump to win.

Virginia and Colorado are the 2 ex-battleground states that won’t vote GOP again in the foreseeable future in today’s political alignments.

I think Trump gains in the suburbs, but yeah there are no major inner cities in either NJ or VA for Trump to make major gains in.

NOVA does have a statistically meaningful Muslim and South Asian vote, though.  And there's more pro-life presence in the suburbs than NJ or MN.  FWIW he districts in the state legislature where they are clustered are usually like 75D/25R, but they only voted like 65D/35R last year.

I still think the answer's MN because of how close it was in 2016, but the  apparentNorth/South polarization does give me pause.

It was the Jewish fog.

I have a hard time seeing how anyone can seriously argue this point - Texas turnout patterns in 2020 were clearly favorable to Republicans as has been the case for quite a while. The only high turnout Democrat area of Texas is Austin and if you equalize turnout across precincts, you actually get a narrow Biden win. Biden also won precincts worth more people than Trump in TX by a couple million.

I’m saying that the TX turnout patterns were more favourable to the Dems in 2020 than it had historically been in the past, and crucially more favourable than I expect them to be in 2024. By the way, which method are you using to calculate the size of the voter pool in each precinct specifically?

I don't see anything different that Trump does to restore the economy. The unemployment rate is going up, I have neighbors and roommates that don't want to work, but I have an income

What a pity this country has become when the opposition party resorting to impeachment has become a norm.

Kind of getting ahead of yourself there.

Unless Ds win the H in 24/26 which they likely will there won't be impeachment

Only Minnesota is a plausible and conceivable flip. New Jersey and Virginia is just too suburban and too affluent for Trump to win.

Virginia and Colorado are the 2 ex-battleground states that won’t vote GOP again in the foreseeable future in today’s political alignments.

I think Trump gains in the suburbs, but yeah there are no major inner cities in either NJ or VA for Trump to make major gains in.