Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Pivaru]

One of the justices from the Superior Electoral Court has given Lula 170 of Bolsonaro's spots (it was actually going to be 184, but Bolsonaro got 14 of Lula's). The reasoning behind such decision is that Bolsonaro's campaign had shown some ads which the court decided Lula had the right to respond to. One of the ads said that Lula got 4 out of every 5 votes of people in jail, the other ad called Lula a thief and corrupt.

The situation developed in regards to this. Maria Cláudia Bucchianeri, the justice who initially ruled that all that free ad time should go to Lula walked back on her decision after the Bolsonaro campaign contested it. She now says this will have to be discussed by the whole court. I'm not sure when they'll get around to looking at this, but for now, Bolsonaro has just won a bunch of free ad time back (at least until the case is analysed).

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

So Bolsonaro went on the Inteligência podcast and pulled 1.7 million live views, apparently making it the most viewed Youtube live interview ever. At the time of writing the video already had 14 million views, surpassing Lula's interview with Flow

I find it interesting how much larger, more developed and influential Brazilian "alt-media" seems to be compared with its counterparts in the Anglosphere.

On the topic of whether Bolsonaro can win, Lula's core support sitting just over 51% means he has the advantage even if Bolsonaro drives the margin closer with undecided voters. The only question mark comes from the non-voters and blank voters: it isn't out of the question that some portion of them were soft Bolsonaro voters who were discouraged by the polls or the perception of social unacceptability. Now that they know the margin is closer than they thought and that Bolsonaro has the support of 44% instead of 34% they might go his way after all.

[jaichind]

Modalmais/Futura poll now has Lula with a tiny lead 46.9/46.5

The latest version of this poll has Bolsonaro  ahead 46.9/45.9

[jaichind]

The betting markets seems to have Lula's chances of winning falling to around 60%

[Pivaru]

New Ipec statewide polls:

Rio Grande do Sul
Gubernatorial:
Total votes:
Eduardo Leite (PSDB) - 50% (=)
Onyx Lorenzoni (PL) - 41% (-2)
Blank/null - 5% (+1)
Undecided - 3% (=)

Valid votes:
Eduardo Leite (PSDB) - 55% (+1)
Onyx Lorenzoni (PL) - 45% (-1)

Presidential:
Total votes:
Jair Bolsonaro (PL) - 49% (+3)
Lula (PT) - 43% (-3)
Blank/null - 5% (=)
Undecided - 4% (=)

Valid votes:
Jair Bolsonaro (PL) - 53% (+3)
Lula (PT) - 47% (-3)


Espirito Santo:
Gubernatorial:
Total votes:
Renato Casagrande (PSB) - 49%
Carlos Manato (PL) - 40%
Blank/null - 4%
Undecided - 6%

Valid votes:
Renato Casagrande (PSB) - 55%
Carlos Manato (PL) - 45%

Presidential:
Total votes:
Jair Bolsonaro (PL) - 51%
Lula (PT) - 41%
Blank/null - 4%
Undecided - 4%

Valid votes:
Jair Bolsonaro (PL) - 56%
Lula (PT) - 44%


Mato Grosso do Sul:
Gubernatorial:
Total votes:
Capitão Contar (PRTB) - 45%
Eduardo Riedel (PSDB) - 45%
Blank/null - 6%
Undecided - 5%

Valid votes:
Capitão Contar (PRTB) - 50%
Eduardo Riedel (PSDB) - 50%

Presidential:
The total votes figures weren't included in the G1 posts for some reason.

Valid votes:
Jair Bolsonaro (PL) - 56%
Lula (PT) - 44%


Bahia:
Gubernatorial:
Total votes:
Jeronimo Rodrigues (PT) - 48%
ACM Neto (UNIÃO) - 44%
Blank/null - 5%
Undecided - 3%

Valid votes:
Jeronimo Rodrigues (PT) - 52%
ACM Neto (UNIÃO) - 48%

Presidential:
Total votes:
Lula (PT) - 69%
Bolsonaro (PL) - 25%
Blank/null - 5%
Undecided - 2%

Valid votes:
Lula  (PT) - 73%
Bolsonaro (PL) - 27%


Paraiba:
Gubernatorial:
Total votes:
João Azevedo (PSB) - 48%
Pedro Lima (PSDB) - 42%
Blank/null - 7%
Undecided - 4%

Valid votes:
João Azevedo (PSB) - 53%
Pedro Lima (PSDB) - 47%

Presidential:
Total votes:
Lula (PT) - 64%
Bolsonaro (PL) - 30%
Blank/null - 5%
Undecided - 1%

Valid votes:
Lula (PT) - 68%
Jair Bolsonaro (PL) - 32%


Sergipe:
Gubernatorial:
Total votes:
Rogério Carvalho (PT) - 43%
Fábio (PSD) - 40%
Blank/null - 11%
Undecided - 7%

Valid votes:
Rogério Carvalho (PT) - 51%
Fábio (PSD) - 49%

Presidential:
Total votes:
Lula (PT) - 64%
Bolsonaro (PL) - 31%
Blank/null - 5%
Undecided - 4%

Valid votes:
Lula (PT) - 66%
Jair Bolsonaro (PL) - 34%


Alagoas:
Gubernatorial:
Total votes:
Paulo Dantas (MDB) - 49%
Rodrigo Cunha (UNIÃO) - 40%
Blank/null - 6%
Undecided - 6%

Valid votes:
Paulo Dantas (MDB) - 55%
Rodrigo Cunha (UNIÃO) - 45%

Presidential:
Total votes:
Lula (PT) - 57%
Bolsonaro (PL) - 36%
Blank/null - 4%
Undecided - 4%

Valid votes:
Lula (PT) - 61%
Jair Bolsonaro (PL) - 39%


Only Rio Grande do Sul has comparisons to the previous Ipec poll. For all the other states, this is the first time Ipec is releasing polls for them after the first round.

[DaleCooper]

Seems like Bolsonaro has definitely got the momentum.

[Red Velvet]

Based on past electoral trends, the overall valid vote total doesn’t usually change much.

2022 - 118M (1st round)

2018 - 107M (1st round); 104M (runoff)

2014 - 104M (1st round); 105M (runoff)

2010 - 101M (1st round); 99M (runoff)

2006 - 95M (1st round); 95M (runoff)

2002 - 84M (1st round); 86M (runoff)

Biggest variation was 3 million difference less in the runoff and I suspect the fact everyone knew Bolsonaro was going to win contributed for the bigger drop in numbers as possibly light supporters didn’t feel the need to show up to pick and low enthusiasm for PT combined with a defeat people saw coming did the same for potential supporters…

This year is closer race though, so unlikely to drop that much, it’s more comparable to 2014. So assuming a margin of variation of 2 Million, there would be between 116M and 120M valid votes in the runoff this year.

Which makes necessary for the winner to have between 58M - 60M in the runoff. Considering this election is very polarized and it’s unlikely for any people who voted for one to change their minds, that leaves us with the 1st round votes:

Lula - 57M
Bolsonaro - 51M

They sum up 108 Million votes together, so there will be around 8M-12M votes left up for grabs (this is assuming there won’t be significant Lula to Bolsonaro or Bolsonaro to Lula changes in this polarized scenario).

If it’s 8M votes:

- Lula needs 1M to win (12,5% of remaining vote or more)
- Bolsonaro needs 7M to win (87,5% of remaining vote)

If it’s 10M votes:

- Lula needs 2M to win (20% of remaining vote or more)
- Bolsonaro needs 8M to win (80% of remaining vote)

If it’s 12M votes:

- Lula needs 3M to win (25% of remaining vote or more)
- Bolsonaro needs 9M to win (75% of remaining vote)

Now, in PAST elections, this is how the vote transferred:

2018: Haddad got around 67% of the 1st round transfer vote and Bolsonaro around 33%

2014: Aécio got around 60% of the 1st round transfer vote and Dilma around 40%

2010: Serra got around 55% of the 1st round transfer vote and Dilma around 45%

2006: Lula got ALL the transfer vote and managed to steal Alckmin 1st round votes as well - an extremely rare phenomenon.

2002: Serra got around 52% of the 1st round transfer vote and Lula around 48%.

2006 is an outlier that some analysts of the time justified as people voting Alckmin in order to push for a runoff? In any case, very unlikely to repeat in polarized scenario so I will not really count it.

2022 I think it’s really hard to predict the vote transfers IMO. Tebet is enthusiastically supporting Lula but I’m not sure all her voters would do the same. Ciro has basically disappeared after giving a very weak support to Lula and I’m not sure what kind of Ciro voter remained with him until the end.

The average that Bolsonaro needs is around 80% of that transfer vote. Which is quite hard but we’ve seeing the transfer vote gradually concentrating more on one candidate over the years (2002-52%; 2010-55%; 2014-60%; 2018-67%), so I wouldn’t say it’s impossible either.

Working with the case of 120 Million votes, which is where Bolsonaro only needs 75% of that transfer vote…

If it ends Lula 53% win:
Lula - 63,6M (55% of transfer vote)
Bolsonaro - 56,4M (45% of transfer vote)

With Lula 52% win:
Lula - 62,4M (45% of transfer vote)
Bolsonaro - 57,6M (55% of transfer vote)

With Lula 51% win:
Lula - 61,2M (35% of transfer vote)
Bolsonaro - 58,8M (65% of transfer vote)

With Lula 50% Bolsonaro 50% tie:
Lula - 60M (25% of transfer vote)
Bolsonaro - 60M (75% of transfer vote)

With Bolsonaro 51% win:
Lula 58,8M (15% of transfer vote)
Bolsonaro 61,2M (85% of transfer vote)

Now, considering polls are currently predicting a Lula win with around 52-53%, that’s basically an evenly split 50/50 of the transfer vote to Lula and Bolsonaro. My early prediction immediately after the first round of a Lula win with 52,5% was based on this full 50/50 transfer notion. It will be interesting to watch what is the transfer for each candidate that correlates with the polls predictions next week.

Because it’s really hard for me to see the Tebet and Ciro votes falling especially hard for any of the candidates imo, reason why I initially went with that 50/50 split. So if Bolsonaro really were to win and therefore get a transfer larger than 75% or 80%, I wouldn’t attribute it to that Tebet and Ciro voter at all, but to a potential rise of abstention (with lower income voters) maybe mixed with gaining a good number of undecideds who didn’t show up in 1st round or who nullified.

[DaleCooper]

Thanks for the insight, Red Velvet. Very informative!

[RicardoCampos]

I wish I had done this review in the 1st week of the 2nd shift, so it doesn't seem like such an obvious prediction, but unfortunately I was out of time, but I'm going to do it now while there's still time.

Bolsonaro will win the election in Brazil for the following reasons:

• Allies 1: Bolsonaro has elected governors or favorites in the 2nd round in all states in the richest regions of Brazil, with several being reelected
• Allies 2: Bolsonaro has all the senators elected in the 2nd round in all the states of the richest regions of Brazil
• Aliaes 3: Bolsonaro's party elected huge benches in the federal chamber and state assemblies in all states of the richest regions of Brazil
• Allies 4: within this group of elected Bolsonarist governors / senators / federal and state deputies are the 3 most populous states in Brazil, a small variation in these states means millions of votes
• Allies 5: all these elected allies of Bolsonaro are encouraged to win votes in their respective states; Minas Gerais is a classic example, a swing state with the 2nd largest population in Brazil in which Lula won with just 5 points, at the same time with a re-elected governor and an elected senator, both Bolsonaro allies, who are mobilizing mayors and the entire its basis for reversing Bolsonaro's situation
• Evangelicals: predicted to surpass Catholics in the next decade, Brazilian evangelicals, especially neo-Pentecostals, are not just a religious unit of vows, they are engaged and have a huge influence in their communities, mostly poor regions, being able to turn votes in these traditionally Lulist regions; Pastors are also more engaged in the 2nd round, in some cases bullying church members who do not vote for Bolsonaro
• Conservatives and moderate Bolsonaro: there is a growing and undeniable conservative inclination in the population that accompanies the growth of evangelicals, this whole mass elected conservative politicians in a much greater proportion than the votes obtained by Bolsonaro; for example, a portion of moderate conservatives voted in the 1st round for a conservative governor but not for Bolsonaro, because of his rude speech; Knowing this, Bolsonaro's campaign tried to recreate his image, who now doesn't speak profanity anymore, appears with women and goes to churches every day, just waiting for these moderate conservatives thirsty for a palatable Bolsonaro to come to him.
• Lula weakened: the former president, 76 years old, is older and visibly gets exhausted much more easily than Bolsonaro, he appears in debates and interviews with a weakened appearance, hoarse voice and with cognitive difficulties, he does not look anything like the Lula that everyone knew, fears for his health and he is very similar to Biden; in the 2nd round this is more evident because of the more exhaustive campaign
• Time: if the 2nd round of the election were the day after the 1st round, Lula would easily win, but as it takes 4 weeks, time works in Bolsonaro's favor
• Reelection: every president in reelection campaign has a head start, resources and government propaganda
• Self-confident voters: Many people who were reluctant to vote for Bolsonaro in the 1st round have now come out of the closet to see his voting success and there are waves of cars and homes with Bolsonaro campaign symbols, much more than Lula
• Social "help" package: With the "agreement" of the left in Congress, Bolsonaro approved a package of billions of reais for "emergency" social programs and is now distributing all of this on the eve of the elections; the left voted in favor of Bolsonaro afraid of unpopularity and now reaps the consequences
• Economy: whether for artificial reasons (government package) or real reasons (end of the pandemic, better international economic scenario), Brazil's economy has really been improving and this makes a difference in the voter's mind
• Government assessment: Bolsonaro had more than 50% of disapproval, now his approval is gradually increasing and is already surpassing disapproval
• Media: the main media in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, which has national reach, surrendered to Bolsonaro, some for suspicious reasons and others because they saw that the Bolsonarist wave was so big that they were afraid of losing their audience, for example, SBT, RedeTV, Rádio Bandeirantes, CNN, Jovem Pan, Record, Veja, Estadão, O Antagonista, the only exceptions are Globo and Uol
• Amazon: it seems a bit repetitive, but it is always necessary in international forums to warn foreigners that the Amazon is not a priority for most Brazilians, who live very far from the North of the country
• Engagement: Bolsonaro has ubiquity on the internet, breaking successive audience records, whether by the use of boots or even by his own more engaged audience, as much as the left has prepared, it has not managed to come even close, some polls even indicate 5x more engagement of pro-Bolsonaro rather than pro-Lula agendas on the internet; in the old analogue world the left has always had an advantage in street demonstrations and still manages to fight Bolsonaro but it is not enough given that 98.1% of the Brazilian population over 10 years old has a cell phone
• Expectation of victory: in the wave of Lula in the 1st round moderate politicians, artists and influencers were appearing alongside Lula and even arranging positions in a future “broad front” government, now that the pendulum has changed all that is dead, Lula’s artists disappeared (Anitta for example) while dozens of new supporters for Bolsonaro appeared (sertanejos singers like Gustavo Lima and Leonardo, jiu-jitsu fighters like Wanderlei Silva and José Aldo, Neymar, non-ideological deputies from Centrão, etc), everyone wants to be next to the winner
• Abstention: usually, abstention is higher in the poorest populations and higher in the 2nd round, which harms Lula, there are several campaigns against this and there will even be free buses in most capitals, but until today an efficient solution has not been found to reduce the abstention
• Polls: polls that placed Bolsonaro exorbitantly below Lula in the 1st round now put the 2 in a technical tie, it is obvious that Bolsonaro is already ahead
• Election day wave: before a privilege of the left, now Bolsonarists are able to create a wave on election day, whether it is a temporal issue (new votes) or sample (vote not captured by polls) the fact is that for one or several of these reasons Bolsonaro will have more votes than the polls are showing

Lula was able to get 48.4% of the votes in the 1st round because the reach of the conservative wave was not yet known, there were still not so many elected allies of Bolsonaro working together, Bolsonaro still had crises of rudeness and scared the moderate conservatives, the campaign was less tiring because Lula was thought to be much further along, the economy was still growing again, Bolsonaro’s “emergency” social programs had not yet had an effect and the expectation of victory created a wave in favor of Lula.

I believe Lula will have more votes than in the first round, but not enough to defeat Bolsonaro. The reality seems so scary that if Lula loses by a little it will even be a victory. I wouldn't be surprised if Lula loses to Bolsonaro with a greater percentage difference than Fernando Haddad in 2018. I'm almost sure that when the polls open on the 30th, Bolsonaro will be with more than 60%, the difference will certainly decrease during the counting when the votes of the poorest are coming in, but not enough to take Bolsonaro's victory.

There are several people asking how a turnaround for Bolsonaro would be possible with Lula reaching 48.4% in the 1st round and without explosive facts. All the explanations were described there.

I hope my prognosis is wrong on Election Day, though.

[Mike88]

First of all, welcome to the forum RicardoCampos!

You and Red Velvet have valid points. Indeed Lula seems still the favourite as he got 48% in the first round and just need 2-3 million votes to squeeze a victory in the 2nd round. But, like both also pointed, abstention or voter disapointement could make things really unpredictable. I'm not as pessimistic as Ricardo, I still say Lula wins but it will be close, around 51-52%, which could create problems in his exercise of duties as President. We'll see.

[jaichind]

The betting markets seems to have Lula's chances of winning falling to around 60%

Betting markets now have Lula's chances of winning at 54% now

[Pivaru]

Bolsonaro has started a 22 hour livestream today, Neymar appeared with him during the event. Paulo Guedes also appeared and promised a rise the minimum wage above the inflation level. It started 4 hours ago and currently has something around 470k concurent viewers, not sure what else happened aside from Neymar and Guedes appearing because, to be quite frank, the last thing I want to do during my weekend is to spend time watching a long political livestream.

Tangentially related to this, ever since Bolsonaro went to the Inteligência Ltda podcast, I've noticed that his campaign seems to have dumped a lot of resources into internet ads. I can't watch Youtube without getting bombarded by his stuff, raging from 5 second videos of his jingle to clips of him talking about his daughter and normal political ads concerning issues such as poverty. For the sake of comparison, in this same timeframe, I've only seen one Lula ad on the internet.

[Red Velvet]

Yeah, you’re seeing all the machine money being dumped as I said.

After 1st round I think you could fall from anywhere a Lula 57,5% victory to a Bolsonaro 52,5% victory, depending on how the runoff campaign went.

The middle of this is a Lula 52,5% victory, which is the initial center before any campaign. Depends on how much Bolsonaro can really close the gap on his favor. Polls next week should give an idea of the trend and its level but we will only really know on the day.

I think the campaign should had been more driven on economic grounds btw, cuz everything we’re seeing now (the benefits payments, inflation control) is artificial and temporarily planned due to the election, not going to last. I suppose there’s a personal special vindication sense about attacking Bolsonaro on moral grounds but that’s his ground of populism. If undecided people weren’t already voting against him because of the horrible stuff he did and said in his government, it’s not pointing pedophile comments that will suddenly change their minds tbh.

[Pivaru]

One of Bolsonaro's allies, Roberto Jefferson, the honorary president of PTB, has just shot at police officers, hurting two of them.

Jefferson had got into some controversy over the past day for calling Supreme Court justice Carmen Lucia a "witch" and a "prostitute". At face value, I don't think this would be that relevant for the election, I'm willing to bet that most Brazilians don't know who Lucia or Jefferson are (I mean... The last time Jefferson was a relevant political figure was more than 10 years ago). In any case, due to these comments, Alexandre de Moraes determined that Jefferson would have to go to jail (he was under house arrest) and this led up to the aforementioned conflict between him and the police officers. Maybe this will bring more attention to this story? Not sure.

While I was writing this post, Bolsonaro actually tweeted a message denouncing Jefferson's actions. He also said his minister of justice would go to Rio to follow the whole situation more closely.

[Red Velvet]

Ridiculous spectacle. Some Bolsominions treating him like he was a “freedom of speech” hero for shooting the cops who went there to arrest him when he’s just crazy old corrupt politician who is sh**tting himself about the idea of going to jail.

And these are the same people that theoretically “praise” the police importance. Only when it’s used to jail poor and black kids, I guess? An exception is clearly if the criminal is a Bolsonarist, in which case you should totally try to kill the cops in the same way the low-life criminals they criticize. This is what these terrorists are, no better than a trafficker gang member that fights the police - these at least have the lack of opportunities background - but because they’re white and with some money they act like they aren’t criminals who belong in jail.

The radical Bolsominion narrative is to praise the terrorist shooting attack against the cops doing their job, but Bolsonaro himself and some other politicians from his base condemned the attack (although also criticizing the order to arrest the bastard in 1st place too, washing his hands), which I think creates some kind of narrative divide on the right-wing base. They won’t be able to successfully justify this if even Bolsonaro is criticizing it.

[Pivaru]

After 8 hours since the start of the incident, Roberto Jefferson surrendered to the police and was arrested. Bolsonaro posted a video on twitter calling Jefferson a "thug" and praising the arrest.

[Red Velvet]

Took 7 hours until this terrorist could finally be arrested after what he did, with 3rd party NEGOTIATIONS for his surrender.

When you’re white in Brazil you can basically shoot the Federal Police and throw two grenades at them and get this high-level of respect treatment. If it was a Black Brazilian they would’ve immediately have been sent to the morgue and these people would’ve applauded as a dangerous criminal getting what he deserved.

White elites and their sense of entitlement are the cancer of society. This is normalized and socially acceptable Nazism.

[DaleCooper]

Yeah, you’re seeing all the machine money being dumped as I said.

After 1st round I think you could fall from anywhere a Lula 57,5% victory to a Bolsonaro 52,5% victory, depending on how the runoff campaign went.

The middle of this is a Lula 52,5% victory, which is the initial center before any campaign. Depends on how much Bolsonaro can really close the gap on his favor. Polls next week should give an idea of the trend and its level but we will only really know on the day.

I think the campaign should had been more driven on economic grounds btw, cuz everything we’re seeing now (the benefits payments, inflation control) is artificial and temporarily planned due to the election, not going to last. I suppose there’s a personal special vindication sense about attacking Bolsonaro on moral grounds but that’s his ground of populism. If undecided people weren’t already voting against him because of the horrible stuff he did and said in his government, it’s not pointing pedophile comments that will suddenly change their minds tbh.

This is a failing that the left has been making all over the place, in many countries. I suspect that it's a reflection of the left/right divide being based less on class and more on cultural values, but it's a huge mistake and it's bad for society.

[Umengus]

Took 7 hours until this terrorist could finally be arrested after what he did, with 3rd party NEGOTIATIONS for his surrender.

When you’re white in Brazil you can basically shoot the Federal Police and throw two grenades at them and get this high-level of respect treatment. If it was a Black Brazilian they would’ve immediately have been sent to the morgue and these people would’ve applauded as a dangerous criminal getting what he deserved.

White elites and their sense of entitlement are the cancer of society. This is normalized and socially acceptable Nazism.

racist guy you are. Shame.

And the guy is not a terrorist but a criminal.

[Red Velvet]

Took 7 hours until this terrorist could finally be arrested after what he did, with 3rd party NEGOTIATIONS for his surrender.

When you’re white in Brazil you can basically shoot the Federal Police and throw two grenades at them and get this high-level of respect treatment. If it was a Black Brazilian they would’ve immediately have been sent to the morgue and these people would’ve applauded as a dangerous criminal getting what he deserved.

White elites and their sense of entitlement are the cancer of society. This is normalized and socially acceptable Nazism.

racist guy you are. Shame.

And the guy is not a terrorist but a criminal.

Racist is for white trash with money to do this stuff and get treated with high level of respect. 7 hours after the fact to surrender and with federal agents smiling and laughing with him as if he was a misbehaving kid who only did something silly and embarrassing? The man is 69 years old and was throwing grenades in the police.

Black Brazilians get executed in a favela for much less, for just living in their homes. You just need the fascist police to say they have drugs and people will believe anything because of their inherent racist bias that black and/or poor people are guilty of something criminal. Sometimes the police doesn’t even have to say anything in order to be justifiable because racists think if you live in the favela you’re necessarily a criminal.

I say this as a white Brazilian. Years from now people will talk with disgust about the way our society is still shaped by slaver mentality so much. You see this socially acceptable nazism everywhere and it never gets called out for what it is. It’s really disgusting.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Bolsonaro will win.

Brazil is such a sad country.

[Red Velvet]

ATLAS poll (the poll which got the closest in 1st round) was released today - it doesn’t show the effects of Roberto Jefferson mess yet

Lula 52,0% (+0,9)
Bolsonaro 46,2% (-0,3)

In valid votes:

Lula 52,9% (+0,5)
Bolsonaro 47,1 (-0,5)

That Lula is showing growth even before the effects of this Bob Jeff mess for Bolsonaro is wonderful sign.

If IPEC released today shows Lula with at least 53% (I think their last 54% may still be a very slight overestimation) then it’s great news for the last week of campaign.

[Red Velvet]

A lot of this rise is due to higher number of Simone Tebet and Ciro Gomes voters transferring to Lula in comparison to previous poll.

In the previous one 54,2% of Tebet voters said they were voting for Lula. Now it’s 69,6% according to Atlas.

In the previous poll, Bolsonaro was getting the majority of Ciro Gomes voters with only 39,1% saying they would vote for Lula but that situation has now reversed. Now Lula wins 51,3% of Ciro voters.

[Pivaru]

New Ipec poll:

Total votes:
Lula - 50% (=)
Bolsonaro - 43% (=)
Blank/null - 5% (=)
Undecided - 2% (=)

Valid votes:
Lula - 54% (=)
Bolsonaro - 46% (=)

Same as their last poll

[Pivaru]

ATLAS poll (the poll which got the closest in 1st round) was released today - it doesn’t show the effects of Roberto Jefferson mess yet

Lula 52,0% (+0,9)
Bolsonaro 46,2% (-0,3)

In valid votes:

Lula 52,9% (+0,5)
Bolsonaro 47,1 (-0,5)

That Lula is showing growth even before the effects of this Bob Jeff mess for Bolsonaro is wonderful sign.

If IPEC released today shows Lula with at least 53% (I think their last 54% may still be a very slight overestimation) then it’s great news for the last week of campaign.

I'll point out that this Atlas poll has an oddity when it comes to it's regional breakdown. The Central-West numbers seem pretty weird, according to them, Lula grew a lot there and now has 51.8% of the votes in the region while Bolsonaro has 47.1%. Compared to their last poll, Lula grew a whole 15 points in this region (they also say Lula grew almost 10 points in the North which just seems kinda wrong, like, that's a lot, but that's besides the point I want to make about the Central-West).

In the first round, Bolsonaro won in all the states in the region and in fact, he won quite handily, more than 50% of the votes in all of them. I don't believe for even a second that Lula is anywhere close to winning the Central-West. It also says people in the Central-West disapprove of Bolsonaro's government more than people in the North and in the Southeast, which I also doubt.

In any case, despite this weird result in that region, the new Ipec poll does back Atlas at saying that Bolsonaro hasn't closed the gap between him and Lula over the past week, so that's still good news for the former president.