Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Pivaru]

New Ipec poll

Total votes:
Lula (PT) - 50% (-1)
Bolsonaro (PL) - 43% (+1)
Blank/null - 5% (=)
Undecided - 2% (=)

Valid votes:
Lula (PT) - 54% (-1)
Bolsonaro (PL) - 46% (+1)

46% of voters wouldn't vote for Bolsonaro (-2), 41% wouldn't vote for Lula (-1).

93% of voters are sure of their vote.

39% of voters think Bolsonaro's government is bad or terrible (-2), 37% think it is great or good (-1), 23% think it is regular (+4).

[buritobr]

New Ipec poll

Total votes:
Lula (PT) - 50% (-1)
Bolsonaro (PL) - 43% (+1)
Blank/null - 5% (=)
Undecided - 2% (=)

Valid votes:
Lula (PT) - 54% (-1)
Bolsonaro (PL) - 46% (+1)

46% of voters wouldn't vote for Bolsonaro (-2), 41% wouldn't vote for Lula (-1).

93% of voters are sure of their vote.

39% of voters think Bolsonaro's government is bad or terrible (-2), 37% think it is great or good (-1), 23% think it is regular (+4).

We should wait other polls, because there might be some 1 point changes only due to the margin of error.

But we should be worried because Ipec is usually the pollster which shows better results for the PT, and the margin is only 8p.

[buritobr]

Even before the 1st round, we talked that in the South and in the Southeast, the capitals vote on the left of their states and in the North and in the Northeast, the capitals vote on the right of their states. This map shows the difference of the % for Bolsonaro in the 1st round of 2022 between the capital and the whole state: in orange, the states in which Bolsonaro performed worse in the capital than in the whole state, and in blue, the opposite.

There are some exceptions. In Minas Gerais, the north is poor and strongly pro-PT, like the neighboor Bahia. In Paraná, there are some land reform areas in which peasants vote much on the left of the capital Curitiba.
In this chart, we can see the results of the 1st round 2022 in all state capitals

[Red Velvet]

I had posted this same map for 2018 and there were only 5 states where the capital voted to the left of the rest of the state: RS, SC, SP, RJ and RO. That last one sounded like the odd one out.

Now looking at this 2022 map, we see that in these 5 states this trend has been repeated. RS, SC, SP and RO it’s actually stronger but RJ still in there too. But other 3 states were added since we had this trend of Lula gaining on the “urban” big city vote - ES, MT, BA. Looks even more chaotic with no sense imo.

For example, you take out Amazonas and Northeast as a whole is where you have this trend of the city vote being more to the right in comparison to the interior of the state, since the interior tends to be poorer and poorer voters on the Northeast are the chunk of Lula’s base. In Bahia (BA) for some reason, you don’t see that in 2022 and the vote in its capital (Salvador) was to the left of the rest of the state because Salvador for some reason is much leftier than the average Northeast capital.

In Amazonas, must be crazy how the entire state tends to go for PT but the Manaus vote, which is significant there because it’s where most people in the state live as other areas are low-densely populated, pushes harder to Bolsonaro.

RO and MT this is happening probably because of the deforestation ring, right? Which would push the interior areas more to the right since they’re more controlled and driven by the Agro interests. While the capital vote becomes more “educated” in comparison due to this disturbance even though the capital vote is still pretty right-wing, it just so happens that the interior is even more because of the absurdity of the Agro power.

The South and Southeast makes sense for the capital to be more left, as they’re richer states and that puts more emphasis of the higher education demographics being concentrated on the capitals. Two exceptions are MG and PR though.

I like the explanation from MG because the North of that state has probably more in similar to the Northeast, which pushes the interior vote from MG overall to the left - reason why MG is easier state for the left to win in the Southeast. So it makes sense.

Like I said in the 2018 map though, I still don’t get PR though. Clearly Curitiba is way more of a right-wing city than Florianópolis (SC) or Porto Alegre (RS), while the interior of PR is more moderate. I don’t really understand why though, makes no sense. Maybe it’s effect of Car-Wash pride or something, when Curitiba became the face of the operation??? But you would have to look if this phenomenon wasn’t repeated BEFORE 2018, otherwise it’s not that and something older…

BA and PR are the most difficult ones for me to come up with an explanation but it’s clearly result of Salvador being leftier than usual Northeast capital standards and Curitiba being rightier than usual South standards. Why they behave like that is the question.

[Pivaru]

Atlas Rio Grande do Sul polls:

Gubernatorial:

Total votes:
Eduardo Leite (PSDB) - 47,3%
Onyx Lorenzoni (PL) - 43,6%
Blank/null/undecided - 9,1%

Valid votes:
Eduardo Leite (PSDB) - 52,04%
Onyx Lorenzoni (PL) - 47,96%

Presidential:

Total votes:
Jair Bolsonaro (PL) - 51,3%
Lula (PT) - 47%
Blank/null/undecided: 1,7%

Valid votes:
Jair Bolsonaro (PL) - 52,2%
Lula (PT) - 47,8%

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I had posted this same map for 2018 and there were only 5 states where the capital voted to the left of the rest of the state: RS, SC, SP, RJ and RO. That last one sounded like the odd one out.

Now looking at this 2022 map, we see that in these 5 states this trend has been repeated. RS, SC, SP and RO it’s actually stronger but RJ still in there too. But other 3 states were added since we had this trend of Lula gaining on the “urban” big city vote - ES, MT, BA. Looks even more chaotic with no sense imo.

For example, you take out Amazonas and Northeast as a whole is where you have this trend of the city vote being more to the right in comparison to the interior of the state, since the interior tends to be poorer and poorer voters on the Northeast are the chunk of Lula’s base. In Bahia (BA) for some reason, you don’t see that in 2022 and the vote in its capital (Salvador) was to the left of the rest of the state because Salvador for some reason is much leftier than the average Northeast capital.

In Amazonas, must’ve crazy how the entire state tends to go for PT but the Manaus vote, which is significant there because it’s where most people in the state live as other areas are low-densely populated, pushes harder to Bolsonaro.

RO and MT this is happening probably because of the deforestation ring, right? Which would push the interior areas more to the right since they’re more controlled and driven by the Agro interests. While the capital vote becomes more “educated” in comparison due to this disturbance even though the capital vote is still pretty right-wing, it just so happens that the interior is even more because of the absurdity of the Agro power.

The South and Southeast makes sense for the capital to be more left, as they’re richer states and that puts more emphasis of the higher education demographics being concentrated on the capitals. Two exceptions are MG and PR though.

I like the explanation from MG because the North of that state has probably more in similar to the Northeast, which pushes the interior vote from MG overall to the left - reason why MG is easier state for the left to win in the Southeast. So it makes sense.

Like I said in the 2018 map though, I still don’t get PR though. Clearly Curitiba is way more of a right-wing city than Florianópolis (SC) or Porto Alegre (RS), while the interior of PR is more moderate. I don’t really understand why though, makes no sense. Maybe it’s effect of Car-Wash pride or something, when Curitiba became the face of the operation??? But you would have to look if this phenomenon wasn’t repeated BEFORE 2018, otherwise it’s not that and something older…

BA and PR are the most difficult ones for me to come up with an explanation but it’s clearly result of Salvador being leftier than usual Northeast capital standards and Curitiba being rightier than usual South standards. Why they behave like that is the question.

How does Foz do Iguacu vote in Parana?  That might explain part of it if the touristic nature of that town causes it to vote significantly differently, one way or the other?

[Red Velvet]

I had posted this same map for 2018 and there were only 5 states where the capital voted to the left of the rest of the state: RS, SC, SP, RJ and RO. That last one sounded like the odd one out.

Now looking at this 2022 map, we see that in these 5 states this trend has been repeated. RS, SC, SP and RO it’s actually stronger but RJ still in there too. But other 3 states were added since we had this trend of Lula gaining on the “urban” big city vote - ES, MT, BA. Looks even more chaotic with no sense imo.

For example, you take out Amazonas and Northeast as a whole is where you have this trend of the city vote being more to the right in comparison to the interior of the state, since the interior tends to be poorer and poorer voters on the Northeast are the chunk of Lula’s base. In Bahia (BA) for some reason, you don’t see that in 2022 and the vote in its capital (Salvador) was to the left of the rest of the state because Salvador for some reason is much leftier than the average Northeast capital.

In Amazonas, must’ve crazy how the entire state tends to go for PT but the Manaus vote, which is significant there because it’s where most people in the state live as other areas are low-densely populated, pushes harder to Bolsonaro.

RO and MT this is happening probably because of the deforestation ring, right? Which would push the interior areas more to the right since they’re more controlled and driven by the Agro interests. While the capital vote becomes more “educated” in comparison due to this disturbance even though the capital vote is still pretty right-wing, it just so happens that the interior is even more because of the absurdity of the Agro power.

The South and Southeast makes sense for the capital to be more left, as they’re richer states and that puts more emphasis of the higher education demographics being concentrated on the capitals. Two exceptions are MG and PR though.

I like the explanation from MG because the North of that state has probably more in similar to the Northeast, which pushes the interior vote from MG overall to the left - reason why MG is easier state for the left to win in the Southeast. So it makes sense.

Like I said in the 2018 map though, I still don’t get PR though. Clearly Curitiba is way more of a right-wing city than Florianópolis (SC) or Porto Alegre (RS), while the interior of PR is more moderate. I don’t really understand why though, makes no sense. Maybe it’s effect of Car-Wash pride or something, when Curitiba became the face of the operation??? But you would have to look if this phenomenon wasn’t repeated BEFORE 2018, otherwise it’s not that and something older…

BA and PR are the most difficult ones for me to come up with an explanation but it’s clearly result of Salvador being leftier than usual Northeast capital standards and Curitiba being rightier than usual South standards. Why they behave like that is the question.

How does Foz do Iguacu vote in Parana?  That might explain part of it if the touristic nature of that town causes it to vote significantly differently, one way or the other?

It’s not that, Bolsonaro won in Foz do Iguaçu with over 60%. Curitiba (PR) just happens to be a city more conservative than the average capital of the South. Look at how Florianópolis (SC) and Porto Alegre (RS) voted more to the left.

And that’s not because Paraná is supposed to be the most conservative state from the South at all, that position is clearly held by Santa Catarina overall, even though their capital of Florianópolis is distinctively more progressive than the rest of the state - I would say one of the most socially progressive places from the country tbh.

I just don’t know to explain WHY Curitiba tends to be more conservative. It was the headquarters of Car-Wash so there might be some pride regarding that in the city? But you would have to look at the vote from 2014 and before in order to confirm this isn’t an older trend. In which case, I wouldn’t know how to explain.

I’ve been to Curitiba before and thought it was okay place with friendly people but at same time, for some reason it has been historically used as a code for something, idk why. People in there don’t really look particularly whiter or blonder at all to me but go figure!

In this excerpt from 2004 telenovela “Senhora do Destino”, the villain Nazaré Tedesco humiliates this homeless dude watching her, saying she’s leaving Rio and moving to Curitiba because there she will find only blonde people like her, without homeless and “criminals” like him. But I really didn’t get that vibe from Curitiba at all tbh, it just felt much less of a big city for a capital imo.

I did get big city vibes from visiting Porto Alegre though. Decadent and old big city, but still a big city. Curitiba felt more modern but also smaller even though it has a 1.9 M population in comparison to Porto Alegre’s 1.4 M.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Like I said in the 2018 map though, I still don’t get PR though. Clearly Curitiba is way more of a right-wing city than Florianópolis (SC) or Porto Alegre (RS), while the interior of PR is more moderate. I don’t really understand why though, makes no sense. Maybe it’s effect of Car-Wash pride or something, when Curitiba became the face of the operation??? But you would have to look if this phenomenon wasn’t repeated BEFORE 2018, otherwise it’s not that and something older…

BA and PR are the most difficult ones for me to come up with an explanation but it’s clearly result of Salvador being leftier than usual Northeast capital standards and Curitiba being rightier than usual South standards. Why they behave like that is the question.

According to English Wikipedia Curitiba has several nicknames relating to its mild climate, lush greenery, and healthy environment (in English “ecological city” implies some connection with environmentalism). Wonder if that’s a factor somehow

Nickname(s): Cidade Modelo ("Model City"); Capital Ecológica do Brasil ("Ecological Capital of Brazil"); Cidade Verde ("Green City"); Capital das Araucárias ("Capital of Araucarias"); A Cidade da Névoa Eterna ("The City of Eternal Fog")

I just don’t know to explain WHY Curitiba tends to be more conservative. It was the headquarters of Car-Wash so there might be some pride regarding that in the city? But you would have to look at the vote from 2014 and before in order to confirm this isn’t an older trend. In which case, I wouldn’t know how to explain.

I’ve been to Curitiba before and thought it was okay place with friendly people but at same time, for some reason it has been historically used as a code for something, idk why. People in there don’t really look particularly whiter or blonder at all to me but go figure!

I also noticed the English Wiki page also shows the Polish version of ‘Curitiba’. Does the city have a large Polish diaspora?

[Pivaru]

New Abrapel/Ipespe poll

Total votes:
Lula (PT) - 49% (-1)
Bolsonaro (PL) - 43% (=)
Blank/null - 6% (+2)
Undecided -  2% (=)

Valid votes:
Lula (PT) - 53% (-1)
Bolsonaro (PL) - 47% (+1)

48% of voters wouldn't vote for Bolsonaro (-1), 45% wouldn't vote for Lula (same as the last Abrapel/Ipespe poll)

[Pivaru]

New Quaest poll:

Total votes:
Lula (PT) - 47% (-2)
Bolsonaro (PL) - 42% (+1)
Blank/Null - 6% (=)
Undecided - 5% (+1)

Valid votes:
Lula (PT) - 52.8% (-0.6)
Bolsonaro (PL) - 47.2% (+0.6)

46% of people wouldn't vote for Bolsonaro (-4), 43% wouldn't vote for Lula (+1)

[Sir Mohamed]

This race seems honestly a tossup at this point. My gut feeling says Bolsonaro narrowly pulls it off.

[Niemeyerite]

This race seems honestly a tossup at this point. My gut feeling says Bolsonaro narrowly pulls it off.

How's it a toss up? Lula has been leading in every poll by at least a 4 point margin.

[Red Velvet]

This race seems honestly a tossup at this point. My gut feeling says Bolsonaro narrowly pulls it off.

How's it a toss up? Lula has been leading in every poll by at least a 4 point margin.

Bolsonaro is the incumbent though, trying lots of heavy spending and dirty tactics to close the gap. I don’t think it will be enough, but analysts low-key expect race to get closer.

[Niemeyerite]

This race seems honestly a tossup at this point. My gut feeling says Bolsonaro narrowly pulls it off.

How's it a toss up? Lula has been leading in every poll by at least a 4 point margin.

Bolsonaro is the incumbent though, trying lots of heavy spending and dirty tactics to close the gap. I don’t think it will be enough, but analysts low-key expect race to get closer.

Those tactics were also used in the first round and yet Lula got 5% more than Bolsonsro and almost won outright. It can get closer and Bolsonaro can still win, but it's not a toss up.

[Pivaru]

New Datafolha poll

Total votes:
Lula (PT) - 49% (=)
Bolsonaro (PL) - 45% (+1)
Blank/null - 4% (-1)
Undecided - 1% (=)

Valid votes:
Lula (PT) - 52% (-1)
Bolsonaro (PL) - 48% (+1)

50% wouldn't vote for Bolsonaro (-1), 46% wouldn't vote for Lula (=)

6% of voters say they aren't sure about their votes yet

39% of voters approve Bolsonaro's government (+1), 39% disapprove (=), 22% think it's regular (=)

In São Paulo, 47% vote for Bolsonaro (+1) and 43% vote for Lula (-1), in valid votes it's Bolsonaro 52% - Lula 48%

Gubernatorial election in São Paulo is Tarcisio 49% - Haddad 40%, 55-45 in valid votes

[DaleCooper]

I definitely understand why people are pumping the brakes on their expectations for a Lula victory, but the reason I brought this up is because I think it's being understated just how profoundly unlikely it is for a loser candidate to come back in the second round and beat his opponent who had over 48% and was 5% ahead in the first round. Yes, Bolsonaro was underestimated by polls, but we have concrete evidence that Lula is very much in the lead and near 50% thanks to the first round voting. As I understand it, it's pretty much a question of whether the people who initially voted for alternative candidates will pick Lula or Bolsonaro and I find it hard to believe that Lula doesn't have at least a slim majority pretty much in the bag so long as nothing horribly scandalous happens to him over the next couple weeks. But again, I'm unfamiliar with Brazilian electoral politics.

[Red Velvet]

This race seems honestly a tossup at this point. My gut feeling says Bolsonaro narrowly pulls it off.

How's it a toss up? Lula has been leading in every poll by at least a 4 point margin.

Bolsonaro is the incumbent though, trying lots of heavy spending and dirty tactics to close the gap. I don’t think it will be enough, but analysts low-key expect race to get closer.

Those tactics were also used in the first round and yet Lula got 5% more than Bolsonsro and almost won outright. It can get closer and Bolsonaro can still win, but it's not a toss up.

It’s still lean Lula now but it can easily become a toss-up until the Election Day.

Datafolha now says Lula 52% and the runoff polls tend to be historically on point. If Bolsonaro grows 1% next week again it will be Lula 51% and then with the election eve moments + margin of error, easily become a toss-up.

That depends on the same trend from past week maintaining obviously. If Lula can grow 1% in next week will be great but I do not underestimate the machine power from the State in full force buying votes and using other intimidation tactics to suppress the vote.

Just be prepared for the worst, is all I’m saying. Even if it’s lean Lula at this point.

[rones358]

New Parana Pesquisas Poll. This pollster was the most accurate in the first round.

Total votes
Lula 46,9
Bolsonaro 44,5
Branco/Nulo: 5
Undecided: 3,6

Valid VotesLula
51,3 (-0,6)
Bosonaro 48,7 (+0,6)

[Comrade Funk]

Yeah I think Bolsonaro's gonna squeak this one out. Lula's lead keeps slowly eroding.

[Person Man]

Yeah I think Bolsonaro's gonna squeak this one out. Lula's lead keeps slowly eroding.

The Left of Center can't campaign even though their policies are more popular. These Nationalists just slowly build momentum, like a Football Team with a rookie QB but with the strongest guys in the league on the line.

[Pivaru]

10 days to go.

Today, the Superior Electoral Court (often abbreviated to TSE) has expanded their own power to control content in an effort to combat fake news. Until now, it was necessary for a candidate to request the removal of content for anything to really happen, this won't be the case anymore. The court can now just rule for certain posts to be removed from social media and the platforms have 2 hours to follow the ruling or they'll receive a R$ 100,000 fine per hour until said content is taken down. During the last three days before the second round, platforms will only have 1 hour. Aside from this, political ads on the internet will not be allowed during the last 2 days of campaigning and if a platform doesn't obey the court's rulings, they have the power to take it down.

This expansion of powers isn't really unprecedented, over the past few years, the Supreme Court (STF) has done the same thing and minister Alexandre de Moraes (who is a STF member and the president of the TSE) has made a name for himself as being very proactive in using these newfound powers. I fully expect these powers to be used over this last stretch of the election.

I do personally have some rather strong opinions about all of this. I'm not a constitutional scholar or anything like that, so don't take anything I say as a fact, that said, I do feel like the court (and more specifically Moraes) has overstepped what their constitutional powers are supposed to be, they're not just justices anymore, they have become full on prosecutors. Focusing more on Moraes, he comes off to me as someone very ambivalent to crucial elements of a democratic state such as freedom of press. I remember for example that in 2019, he just straight up censored a reporting about the connections between Dias Toffoli (another Supreme Court justice) and Marcelo Odebrecht, a businessman who was very involved with many of the scandals investigated by Operation Car Wash. I've seen people justifying what he does by saying that "it's for the greater good", but frankly, I just fundamentally disagree with this view.

Side note. Over the past weeks there has been discussion over what Bolsonaro would do with the Supreme Court if he got reelected. There were rumors that he'd try to pack the court, but so far, he has denied these accusations. Yesterday, another rumor came out that he'd like Moraes to be impeached on the first semester of 2023, so there's that. If no unforeseen events such as a death or an impeachment happen, whoever wins the runoff will get to appoint two new justices for the Supreme Court, both next year.

Aside from all of this, the other development that happened today also has to do with the court.

So, in Brazil candidates have free political ad time on TV, both Lula and Bolsonaro would have 225 between today and October 28 (the last day of free political ad time), that won't be the case anymore. One of the justices from the Superior Electoral Court has given Lula 170 of Bolsonaro's spots (it was actually going to be 184, but Bolsonaro got 14 of Lula's). The reasoning behind such decision is that Bolsonaro's campaign had shown some ads which the court decided Lula had the right to respond to. One of the ads said that Lula got 4 out of every 5 votes of people in jail, the other ad called Lula a thief and corrupt.

What effect will this have? I'm not entirely sure. I don't know how important TV ads really are nowadays for campaigns, they used to be very relevant, but with the rise of the internet, how effective they are is a question without a particularly clear answer. Case in point, just look at the 2018 election, Geraldo Alckmin had, by far, the most television time and a lot of people expected him to grow in the polls due to that... He got less than 5% of the vote. On the other hand, Bolsonaro had almost no time and we all know how this ended. At the end of the day, getting more ad time on TV certainly can't hurt Lula, so it's hard to imagine this isn't good for him.

Edit: Also, I forgot to talk about this, Lula decided to skip the SBT debate which would happen tomorrow. The time will be spent interviewing Bolsonaro. He'll also skip the Record debate which would happen on the 23rd. Seems like we'll only have two debates this second round (I doubt he skips the Globo one).

[buritobr]

This article, in Portuguese, explains the religious gap in the 2022 Brazilian presidential election
https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/brasil-62896472

Bolsonaro has a large margin in the group of the evangelicals, Lula has a large margin in the group of the catholics.
Most of the evangelic churches in Brazil are very conservative. There is a left-wing inside the catholic church. But this is only a small part of the explanation.
There are very conservative catholics who vote for Bolsonaro. But they are a minority in the group of the catholics in Brazil. Most of the catholics vote for Lula because most of the catholics are moderate. Religion is not a very important part of their lives. They don't get their opinion from religious leaders. Most of the evangelicals, on the other side, have the religion as the main issue of their lives. They follow the opinion of religious leaders.
According to a Datafolha poll from January 2020, 53% of the evangelicals and 17% of the catholics in Brazil attend the church weekly.

[buritobr]

All the polls are showing a decline of the gap between Lula and Bolsonaro, but Bolsonaro is growing only at the expense of former "none" voters. Lula's vote is stable. In order to reach a tie, Bolsonaro needs to remove votes from Lula, and this is very hard now, because almost all the voters of both candidates are not willing to change.

[DaleCooper]

All the polls are showing a decline of the gap between Lula and Bolsonaro, but Bolsonaro is growing only at the expense of former "none" voters. Lula's vote is stable. In order to reach a tie, Bolsonaro needs to remove votes from Lula, and this is very hard now, because almost all the voters of both candidates are not willing to change.

Do you think that Lula skipping one of the debates will have an effect on this?

[buritobr]

No, because since he won't go, nobody will watch the debate, which will be only an interview with Bolsonaro.