Israel-Gaza war

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It seems the second biggest building in Gaza was obliterated this morning. God knows how many died in there or how many were still inside.
The ugliness is just probably just beginning.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Great job on the thread everyone! Congratulations due all around.

I can confidently say that after keeping up with this all day, that I hardly know more from this thread than I did at 10:00am. On the plus side I now know what an East German apartment looked like.

As predicted, we reach page 25 on same day.
I've never seen a thread in IGD move this quickly.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Great job on the thread everyone! Congratulations due all around.

I can confidently say that after keeping up with this all day, that I hardly know more from this thread than I did at 10:00am. On the plus side I now know what an East German apartment looked like.

As predicted, we reach page 25 on same day.
I've never seen a thread in IGD move this quickly.

Russia Ukraine?

The only singular day I ever recall things moving remotely this quickly was the Prigozhin "mutiny" and even then I don't think it moved this fast. The 20,000+ posts in the RU-UA war megathread built up over many months and practically two years, didn't they?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm now imagining telling past me, 24 hours ago, what would have happened. I would not have been surprised at the general trajectory, but some of the details certainly might have kind of done so.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ok, it is now the 8th of October. On the 7th, this thread had 655 posts, out of 1,850 for the entire forum. Roughly 34 percent. In percentage terms, this seems to be a forum record.
Not too shocking, but still impressive.
As for the world outside this little forum, may peace return sooner rather than later.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

And I thought I was a pessimist.
I don't think Haley/Ryan really falls into the same bucket as Mattrose here. I'll be kind and say what he's proposing is...creative.
It's far from clear that it's really necessary.
It is true ethnic cleansing half a million is less bad than two million dying. But I'd hope we aren't at the point that such ideas are the main set of options to proceed with.

I appreciate your thoughtfulness. And I will be honest that before today my reaction would have been similar to that of many others here: staunch opposition. But I believe today marks a seminal shift in the history of the conflict, comparable only to the 1967 wars and the failure of Camp David. As much as I wish there was some other good option that ensured peace or at least minimized the death toll alongside a quasi-truce as existed up to now, both Hamas's demonstration of ability and Israel's inability to defend itself will mean that in the future, attacks like this likely become less an exception and more a norm. I think it a virtual guarantee at this point that the Israeli death toll from the invasion and the subsequent counterinvasion to come exceeds 1,000 dead, perhaps even twice or more than that. The Gazan and possibly Lebanese numbers? Maybe 10, 20x that? Imagine that being repeated year after year for the next several decades, whether in Gaza or outside it. The death toll would soar (if 20,000 people die in this conflict, that will be 15% of those dead since 1948). It very quickly becomes the case that the best, even only, answer, is resettlement. This isn't even for all of the area involved, just the Gaza Strip, the single most dangerous area because of location and ideology.

I'm about two-thirds Arab and most of my family is Muslim (giving me considerable insight into the Palestinian side of things here). All-in-all it's just a sad situation where the region is right about now. My instinct has always been leaning towards what I've felt is whatever is likeliest to maintain a peaceful status quo between Israelis and Palestinians, who both have a right to live there (and who both deserve a right to return). Sadly, communal tensions, lack of respect for what the other side thinks, and divisions among communities have rendered long-term peace impossible as things stand. I think you're broadly right on some aspects of this even if I do lean pro-Palestine if forced to choose (not a big fan of Hezbollah or Bibi especially).

The ideal solution at the moment would be clear de-escalation. But leadership on neither side has much interest in that. Things are not likely to substantially improve until people demand better leadership; Bibi and Hamas are just subpar, to put it kindly. As previously noted, I am pessimistic, though not to the full extent you are. In the long-run, if this does turn into a long battle over Gaza, then it might resemble the Syrian Civil War in some ways. Very grim, really.

Palestinians are themselves also divided. The issues involved are bad enough and entrenched enough that even if Israel really achieves the strong weakening of Hamas, that won't be the end of its problems. If will only end up making for itself new ones, very likely. In the meantime, the likes of Bibi and co would be well-advised to act less cockily and act with more regard to the Waqf of the Dome of the Rock and the Arab community around it, it really isn't worth the trouble it brings Israel. But that's more along the lines of "advisable things to do alongside all this".

Shalom/Salam

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Talked to my grandmother. She is safe at this time and looking for a flight out. There is a safe room in the apartment of the cousins she is visiting. I knew this was the case but wanted to speak to her and hear her voice anyway. I can now finally sleep and get some rest.

Good night, may both you and your grandmother get a good rest.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It seems the IDF is yet to stop Hamas efforts within the 1967 borders.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It seems the ODF is yet to stop Hamas efforts within the 1967 borders.

From fragmented info I read they are still at the town of Ofakim.

I wonder if they have sent groups in disquise even farther inside Israel, since the border was completely broken.

That seems possible.
It would be a pretty massive failure if they were able to reach the West Bank.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It seems the ODF is yet to stop Hamas efforts within the 1967 borders.

From fragmented info I read they are still at the town of Ofakim.

I wonder if they have sent groups in disquise even farther inside Israel, since the border was completely broken.

That seems possible.
It would be a pretty massive failure if they were able to reach the West Bank.

Other fragmented info is that Hamas is advancing along the coastal highway towards Ashdod.

Israel has pretty good roads and distances are small if there is no traffic, defence in depth is not really possible beyond urban warfare.

Apparently it's only 25 or so miles between Gaza and the West Bank.
That's not a lot of distance to have to cross.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/10/israel-war-middle-east-jake-sullivan/675580/

"The Middle East Region Is Quieter Today Than It Has Been in Two Decades”

From a week ago.  Another poor prediction from the Biden administration

Well, it was true...until it wasn't.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The United States is moving the USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier and its accompanying warships (currently in the Mediterranean) towards Israel. It has a carrier strike group of 5000 soldiers and several aircrafts on deck. This has got to be extremely rare.

Seems like Washington's concerned by the uncertainty of this all and wants more options.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

40+ pages in and this thread is dissolving into talking about straight men picking up twinks on Grindr. Fantastic job Atlas

It is content on which quite a few are content.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/airlines-suspend-flights-after-israel-declares-state-of-war

"Airlines Suspend Flights After Israel Declares State of War"

With Hamas hitting Tel Aviv with missiles air traffic in and out of Israel converge toward zero

Sucks to be someone still stuck in there. Perhaps some might take the land route and return to their home countries via Egypt?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/DrDavidInDC/status/1711126327250534484

That seems so idiotic (on the part of the protester) i wouldn't be surprised if it was some attempt to be an agent provocateur.

The way the picture is shot makes this look even likelier. It looks like one very self-aware guy trying to create a scene, not something the organizers planned for.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Haaretz blames Netanyahu for the conflict with Gaza.
https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/editorial/2023-10-08/ty-article-opinion/netanyahu-bears-responsibility/0000018b-0b9d-d8fc-adff-6bfd1c880000

Apologies for the fact it's behind a paywall.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Haaretz blames Netanyahu for the conflict with Gaza.
https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/editorial/2023-10-08/ty-article-opinion/netanyahu-bears-responsibility/0000018b-0b9d-d8fc-adff-6bfd1c880000

Apologies for the fact it's behind a paywall.

Of course they'd say that.

Well, they would have (primarily self-interested) reasons to. But I do wonder how much things like this could tell us about the dynamics within Israel. Bibi is not as strongly positioned now as Bush was in 2001.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There will be a refugee crisis because of this war, like there is with EVERY war. I imagine the Biden administration would be very welcoming of refugees (like most Democrats are), but it will probably be more of a mixed bag in Europe. In either case, it is essential that governments do not repeat the mistake they made in WWII of denying refugees entering their countries.

In America there would likely be many raising concerns about terrorism in order to leverage this as a wedge issue. I kinda doubt America would take a particularly large number of them. In a worst case scenario, most likely Turkey would take the most, Canada taking quite a lot, with some possibly going to Russia and a large number going to willing EU countries.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There are indications that tensions are building on the Israel-Lebanon border.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/UNIFIL_/status/1711377866829475853
Puts Washington sending a carrier there in a bit of a new light. Though we still can't say much for certain about how this might escalate and how quickly.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

USA defense stocks surge

Not unreasonable expectations from investors here.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

AP reports that the Egyptian government repeatedly tried to warn Israel that Hamas was planning this invasion - that Netanyahu knew what was coming but still failed to stop it

Allies who share intelligence with Israel said security agencies were misreading reality.

An Egyptian intelligence official said Egypt, which often serves as a mediator between Israel and Hamas, had spoken repeatedly with the Israelis about “something big,” without elaborating.

He said Israeli officials were focused on the West Bank and played down the threat from Gaza. Netanyahu’s government is made up of supporters of Jewish West Bank settlers who have demanded a security crackdown in the face of a rising tide of violence there over the last 18 months.

“We have warned them an explosion of the situation is coming, and very soon, and it would be big. But they underestimated such warnings,” said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to discuss the content of sensitive intelligence discussions with the media.

The Times of Israel also is reporting this.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I am still very worried about the West deprioritizing Ukraine for this.

Fortunately, our State Department is well-equipped to focus on more than one thing at once.

Our State Department will be able to follow the events. Its ability to respond to them is the part that, if one does have concern, they ought to be concerned about.
Too early to fret, though.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Lockheed up 8.9% today, GD up 8.4%, wow!

One wonders if they'll also be up tomorrow.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Haaretz blames Netanyahu for the conflict with Gaza.
https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/editorial/2023-10-08/ty-article-opinion/netanyahu-bears-responsibility/0000018b-0b9d-d8fc-adff-6bfd1c880000

Apologies for the fact it's behind a paywall.

.

Was about ready to quote from the Opinion Piece, but after getting my free registration need to choose how many free articles I want to run with over the next month.

Instead we see front page article that over "1,500 Hamas militant bodies found in Israel".

"Over 900 Israelis killed, 2,400 wounded".

Also Biden will be speaking Tomorrow at 1 PM Eastern Time, quite possibly to address the status of American Hostages currently held by Hamas.

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-10-10/ty-article-live/900-israelis-killed-2-400-wounded-in-war-with-hamas/0000018b-17bd-d465-abbb-17bf23000000

On the topic of hostages: I've heard there is an unfortunate, sordid tradition of the taking of foreigner prisoners and foreign hostage-taking not being vorboten in these sorts of clashes in the Middle East, that this also happened in Lebanon in the 70s and 80s.
In any case, it's yet another thing for Biden to attend to. Hamas probably net benefits from this, which I've heard is a tried-and-tested Iran classic, but they are not helping themselves in the West with this. As I have said previously, their street cred with anti-Israel Arabs matters more to them than PR in Western, non-Arab countries.