Recent Posts

Show posts from buddies only

Easily the best poster on the forum.

Great timing for me to be visiting Naples it seems.

It’s something we’re gonna take a look at.

I watched the first 2 seasons and really enjoyed them. Plan to watch more seasons at some point in the future, but not right now.

Polls during the 1996 election cycle had Clinton above 50% during many stretches of time, but they ended up having a rather terrible cycle that year: the final NPV polling average as of Election Day, as calculated (retroactively) using 538’s polling model would have been D+12.8, which turned out to be 4.3 points above the actual NPV margin of D+8.5. Likewise, the final GCB polling average would have been D+5.4, which was 5.1 points above the actual House NPV of D+0.3 (and this House polling error probably turned what was expected to be a Democratic flip of the House into a Republican hold of that chamber).

Biden is gonna win Rs need to stop Nick picking him based on R polls

This is WILD stuff guys and gals. This guy used to be a highly respected Hollywood actor. Apparently him going off the deep end is not a recent development though. He claimed to have invented a new form of math a while back, I've discovered.

BISEXUAL TONES OF PERIODIC ELEMENTS
From 4:10 to 4:45 in the video :

He also claims to have invented a new form of flight based on something using it's own center of gravity to continue falling without actually falling. Or something. Yet it has propellers as well. Implied that space is not a vacuum and that water cannot be turned into a gas.

FULL 3 HOUR VIDEO:
https://youtu.be/g197xdRZsW0

Blue avatars clutching their pearls about Crockett's rhetoric remind me of a bully who goes crying to the teacher after one of his victims decides to retaliate and punches him in the nose.

[1) The polls seem to consistently be pointing to a Biden EC loss.]

Polls absolutely are not the end all be all, but what would concern me if I was the Biden campaign is three things.

1) The polls seem to consistently be pointing to a Biden EC loss. In fact since the dawn of this year there have only been 3 polls that would give Biden an electoral college win on the same split as 2020. Two of them were QPAC and the other was Reuters/Ipsos which could be useless since it was only 41-37 with high undecideds. If it was only Rasmussen or Trafalgar or R internals pointing to a Trump win, then I could understand throwing them out. However, it seems like everything is pointing to close to a tie in the PV (closer to Trump+1) which is an easy win for Trump in the electoral college.

2) The polls underestimated Trump twice before. That doesn't mean they will do so this time but its worth noting. Sure they were accurate in 2018 and off in 2022, but I value the two Presidential elections with Trump rather than midterms. Even in 2022, the generic ballot which was the only national poll was fairly accurate.

3) Down ballot Dems are doing fine. This is probably the most concerning part for the Biden campaign. In 2016 and 2020 the polls were overestimating Dems across the board from the Presidency to the Senate seat to the House races and beyond. However, down ballot Democrats are doing fairly decent and arguably better than you would expect considering Biden's struggles. They have a generic ballot lead and pretty solid margins in the Senate races like AZ/NV/PA/etc. If the polls were heavily off I think we would be seeing Casey trailing, and Klobuchar with a weak lead but we are not. Casey is up 5, Rosen is up 5, Baldwin is up 7, Gallego is up 6, Brown is up 5, and Tester is up nearly 6. Meanwhile Trump is leading in all of those states, and some by big margins. If you think polls are off the same way as 2022, why are Dems doing so well in those races? The problem Biden is facing is uniquely Biden, and doesn't show up anywhere else.

Except Trump’s EC advantage has largely disappeared according to polls. Polls show Trump having modest leads in GA/AZ/NV but only marginal ones in PA/MI/WI that could easily fall in Biden’s direction if he were to narrowly win the PV, and if they do he wins 270-268.

The thing is though GA and AZ polls tend to be the most accurate whereas Wisconsin is the worst. The popular vote is somewhere in the middle. Wisconsin literally trended R in 2020 and was only Biden+0.6 in 2020. If Trump is indeed up in the popular vote by 1 Wisconsin isn't even close right now.

Wrong again Trafalgar had Gov Lake Biden is gonna win AZ if Gallego won

We won the judge race in 23, by 12 pts and Baldwin is winning by 12

I love how Rs put up such inaccuracies like  they own WI and Evers won look at the compiled map it's wrong it has WI going R and Baldwin is up 12

Why are Trump cultists celebrating that Merchan's behavior guarantees a Trump conviction will be overturned by an appeals court?
Was it really that unprecedented and out of line what he did with Costello?