Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[KaiserDave]

Glad that now there will be talks.  Most things Putin has been demanding are reasonable in my view and Ukraine should try to meet him halfway on that.  

What is not reasonable and I hope Putin drops are

a) Ukraine demilitarization (not even clear what that means, does it mean no Ukraine army or a Ukraine army with no weapons) - this is not a reasonable demand on a sovereign nation  
b)  Zelensky has to go - this does not benefit Russia anyway.  Unless Putin wants to annex Ukraine whole (then why have talks at all) Putin will need someone on the Ukraine side to make the deal (which most in West Ukraine will be negative on) to make it stick.  Zelensky sounds like the man for the job.  For sure a Russian puppet cannot make the deal stick in Western Ukraine

I mean I don't get the purpose of wanting a closer Ukraine to Russia but annexing the most Russian parts of Ukraine. With Crimea and Donbass out Yanukych loses in 2010 right ?

By a lot. A 800000 votes win becomes a 3 million votes loss. Crimea was 78-17, Donetsk was 90-6 and Luhansk was 89-8.

So this makes no sense at all. If Russia wanted to keep influence in Ukraine why are they trying to remove the most Russian parts of Ukraine?

I imagine that if the vote was today, those margins would be significantly closer. Ukraine, even eastern Ukraine has become significantly less pro Russia.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-27/russians-rush-for-dollars-as-sanctions-threaten-ruble-collapse

"Russians Rush for Dollars as Sanctions Threaten Ruble Collapse"

It seems that ordinary Russian, foreign exchange is exhausted.  This will hit the upper-middle class hard.

[Mehmentum]

Glad that now there will be talks.  Most things Putin has been demanding are reasonable in my view and Ukraine should try to meet him halfway on that.  

What is not reasonable and I hope Putin drops are

a) Ukraine demilitarization (not even clear what that means, does it mean no Ukraine army or a Ukraine army with no weapons) - this is not a reasonable demand on a sovereign nation  
b)  Zelensky has to go - this does not benefit Russia anyway.  Unless Putin wants to annex Ukraine whole (then why have talks at all) Putin will need someone on the Ukraine side to make the deal (which most in West Ukraine will be negative on) to make it stick.  Zelensky sounds like the man for the job.  For sure a Russian puppet cannot make the deal stick in Western Ukraine

I mean I don't get the purpose of wanting a closer Ukraine to Russia but annexing the most Russian parts of Ukraine. With Crimea and Donbass out Yanukych loses in 2010 right ?

By a lot. A 800000 votes win becomes a 3 million votes loss. Crimea was 78-17, Donetsk was 90-6 and Luhansk was 89-8.

So this makes no sense at all. If Russia wanted to keep influence in Ukraine why are they trying to remove the most Russian parts of Ukraine?

I think that ship has sailed.  No way would Ukraine willingly adopt a Russo-phillic policy now.

[jaichind]

The Ukrainians are certainly in a much stronger position for these peace talks than when Zelensky was asking for them two days ago. Still, I don't think he will get status quo ante bellum here. Russian forces have fallen short of expectations for sure but they are still winning in the sense that they hold Ukrainian territory, including some important parts in the South near Crimea.

Zelensky gave in on the location of the talks only after the SWIFT and Central bank sanctions.  That way he will go in knowing that Russia knows time is not on their side.  Of course, he has to be realistic on how much he can get away with no concessions.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Glad that now there will be talks.  Most things Putin has been demanding are reasonable in my view and Ukraine should try to meet him halfway on that.  

What is not reasonable and I hope Putin drops are

a) Ukraine demilitarization (not even clear what that means, does it mean no Ukraine army or a Ukraine army with no weapons) - this is not a reasonable demand on a sovereign nation  
b)  Zelensky has to go - this does not benefit Russia anyway.  Unless Putin wants to annex Ukraine whole (then why have talks at all) Putin will need someone on the Ukraine side to make the deal (which most in West Ukraine will be negative on) to make it stick.  Zelensky sounds like the man for the job.  For sure a Russian puppet cannot make the deal stick in Western Ukraine

I mean I don't get the purpose of wanting a closer Ukraine to Russia but annexing the most Russian parts of Ukraine. With Crimea and Donbass out Yanukych loses in 2010 right ?

By a lot. A 800000 votes win becomes a 3 million votes loss. Crimea was 78-17, Donetsk was 90-6 and Luhansk was 89-8.

So this makes no sense at all. If Russia wanted to keep influence in Ukraine why are they trying to remove the most Russian parts of Ukraine?

Because humans are imperfect perceivers and judges of the world around them? Because a territorially-fragmented Ukraine cannot join NATO? Because maybe it was expected the Maidan government would agree to the terms of Minsk and basically grant the east of the country substantially more power?

[lfromnj]

Glad that now there will be talks.  Most things Putin has been demanding are reasonable in my view and Ukraine should try to meet him halfway on that.  

What is not reasonable and I hope Putin drops are

a) Ukraine demilitarization (not even clear what that means, does it mean no Ukraine army or a Ukraine army with no weapons) - this is not a reasonable demand on a sovereign nation  
b)  Zelensky has to go - this does not benefit Russia anyway.  Unless Putin wants to annex Ukraine whole (then why have talks at all) Putin will need someone on the Ukraine side to make the deal (which most in West Ukraine will be negative on) to make it stick.  Zelensky sounds like the man for the job.  For sure a Russian puppet cannot make the deal stick in Western Ukraine

I mean I don't get the purpose of wanting a closer Ukraine to Russia but annexing the most Russian parts of Ukraine. With Crimea and Donbass out Yanukych loses in 2010 right ?

By a lot. A 800000 votes win becomes a 3 million votes loss. Crimea was 78-17, Donetsk was 90-6 and Luhansk was 89-8.

So this makes no sense at all. If Russia wanted to keep influence in Ukraine why are they trying to remove the most Russian parts of Ukraine?

I imagine that if the vote was today, those margins would be significantly closer. Ukraine, even eastern Ukraine has become significantly less pro Russia.

Of course, but a divide would still exist. The Overton window between Russia/EU has literally shifted "left" as in West but it doesn't mean the East isn't more Russia friendly. Zelensky afterall won basically everywhere but the far west.

[KaiserDave]

Glad that now there will be talks.  Most things Putin has been demanding are reasonable in my view and Ukraine should try to meet him halfway on that.  

What is not reasonable and I hope Putin drops are

a) Ukraine demilitarization (not even clear what that means, does it mean no Ukraine army or a Ukraine army with no weapons) - this is not a reasonable demand on a sovereign nation  
b)  Zelensky has to go - this does not benefit Russia anyway.  Unless Putin wants to annex Ukraine whole (then why have talks at all) Putin will need someone on the Ukraine side to make the deal (which most in West Ukraine will be negative on) to make it stick.  Zelensky sounds like the man for the job.  For sure a Russian puppet cannot make the deal stick in Western Ukraine

I mean I don't get the purpose of wanting a closer Ukraine to Russia but annexing the most Russian parts of Ukraine. With Crimea and Donbass out Yanukych loses in 2010 right ?

By a lot. A 800000 votes win becomes a 3 million votes loss. Crimea was 78-17, Donetsk was 90-6 and Luhansk was 89-8.

So this makes no sense at all. If Russia wanted to keep influence in Ukraine why are they trying to remove the most Russian parts of Ukraine?

I imagine that if the vote was today, those margins would be significantly closer. Ukraine, even eastern Ukraine has become significantly less pro Russia.

Of course, but a divide would still exist. The Overton window between Russia/EU has literally shifted left but it doesn't mean the East isn't more Russia friendly. Zelensky afterall won basically everywhere but the far west.

Of course of course, but I imagine a hypothetical Tymoshenko 2022 would get possibly triple or more her numbers in those oblasts. It’s indicative of a massive shift.

[MaxQue]

Glad that now there will be talks.  Most things Putin has been demanding are reasonable in my view and Ukraine should try to meet him halfway on that.  

What is not reasonable and I hope Putin drops are

a) Ukraine demilitarization (not even clear what that means, does it mean no Ukraine army or a Ukraine army with no weapons) - this is not a reasonable demand on a sovereign nation  
b)  Zelensky has to go - this does not benefit Russia anyway.  Unless Putin wants to annex Ukraine whole (then why have talks at all) Putin will need someone on the Ukraine side to make the deal (which most in West Ukraine will be negative on) to make it stick.  Zelensky sounds like the man for the job.  For sure a Russian puppet cannot make the deal stick in Western Ukraine

I mean I don't get the purpose of wanting a closer Ukraine to Russia but annexing the most Russian parts of Ukraine. With Crimea and Donbass out Yanukych loses in 2010 right ?

By a lot. A 800000 votes win becomes a 3 million votes loss. Crimea was 78-17, Donetsk was 90-6 and Luhansk was 89-8.

So this makes no sense at all. If Russia wanted to keep influence in Ukraine why are they trying to remove the most Russian parts of Ukraine?

Because humans are imperfect perceivers and judges of the world around them? Because a territorially-fragmented Ukraine cannot join NATO? Because maybe it was expected the Maidan government would agree to the terms of Minsk and basically grant the east of the country substantially more power?

We cannot hold against Ukraine the fact it didn't kept its part of Minsk, given no side really did even try to keep its part.

[MaxQue]

The Ukrainians are certainly in a much stronger position for these peace talks than when Zelensky was asking for them two days ago. Still, I don't think he will get status quo ante bellum here. Russian forces have fallen short of expectations for sure but they are still winning in the sense that they hold Ukrainian territory, including some important parts in the South near Crimea.

Zelensky gave in on the location of the talks only after the SWIFT and Central bank sanctions.  That way he will go in knowing that Russia knows time is not on their side.  Of course, he has to be realistic on how much he can get away with no concessions.

It seems the deputy Foreign Minister is going to those talks, not Zelensky. Smart, as it may be a trap to capture him.

[jojoju1998]

Glad that now there will be talks.  Most things Putin has been demanding are reasonable in my view and Ukraine should try to meet him halfway on that.  

What is not reasonable and I hope Putin drops are

a) Ukraine demilitarization (not even clear what that means, does it mean no Ukraine army or a Ukraine army with no weapons) - this is not a reasonable demand on a sovereign nation  
b)  Zelensky has to go - this does not benefit Russia anyway.  Unless Putin wants to annex Ukraine whole (then why have talks at all) Putin will need someone on the Ukraine side to make the deal (which most in West Ukraine will be negative on) to make it stick.  Zelensky sounds like the man for the job.  For sure a Russian puppet cannot make the deal stick in Western Ukraine

I mean I don't get the purpose of wanting a closer Ukraine to Russia but annexing the most Russian parts of Ukraine. With Crimea and Donbass out Yanukych loses in 2010 right ?

By a lot. A 800000 votes win becomes a 3 million votes loss. Crimea was 78-17, Donetsk was 90-6 and Luhansk was 89-8.

So this makes no sense at all. If Russia wanted to keep influence in Ukraine why are they trying to remove the most Russian parts of Ukraine?

Because humans are imperfect perceivers and judges of the world around them? Because a territorially-fragmented Ukraine cannot join NATO? Because maybe it was expected the Maidan government would agree to the terms of Minsk and basically grant the east of the country substantially more power?

We cannot hold against Ukraine the fact it didn't kept its part of Minsk, given no side really did even try to keep its part.

That deal was bound to fail.

[Logical]

This is the first Russian Foreign Minister from 1990-1996. He does not think the Russians are serious.
https://twitter.com/andreivkozyrev/status/1497949890084753411?t=FiQ1lQxS09L7wwT2...

[BlueSwan]

I am extremely sceptical of "peace" talks.

Putin has basically proved beyond any reasonable doubt, that this was NEVER about Ukraine not becoming a NATO member or about securing the Russian-majority parts of eastern Ukraine. This was about reestablishing Russia as a global superpower like during the Sovjet days.

[Torie]

Glad that now there will be talks.  Most things Putin has been demanding are reasonable in my view and Ukraine should try to meet him halfway on that.  

What is not reasonable and I hope Putin drops are

a) Ukraine demilitarization (not even clear what that means, does it mean no Ukraine army or a Ukraine army with no weapons) - this is not a reasonable demand on a sovereign nation  
b)  Zelensky has to go - this does not benefit Russia anyway.  Unless Putin wants to annex Ukraine whole (then why have talks at all) Putin will need someone on the Ukraine side to make the deal (which most in West Ukraine will be negative on) to make it stick.  Zelensky sounds like the man for the job.  For sure a Russian puppet cannot make the deal stick in Western Ukraine

With respect, what you write does not make much sense to me. You opine almost as if this were pre invasion where the invasion had never happened. You can't put humpty dumpty back together again. What does "neutrality" even mean? Even if an attack on one is an attack on all is not on a piece of paper,  Ukraine needs to be armed to the teeth on a subsidized basis, and its people are not going to accept being a vassal of Russia and told what to do by Russia ala Belarus. That ship has sailed.

It seems more likely now that even if Russia takes over the key points in Ukraine, it will face a debilitating guerilla war that will end up destabilizing Russia no matter what Putin does. I don't see what further can be offered Putin. Ukraine being part of NATO was not in the cards before. I suppose it is more in the cards now, and Putin could be offered that it won't happen as a fig leaf, but if in lieu thereof, Ukraine is weaponized by the west as described above, it is still a Putin defeat. Putin has forced the hand of the civilized world to make him the loser. All other options are worse. I might add that Putin has no interest in honoring any agreement that he enters into when it proves inconvenient for him, so any such pieces of paper are largely worthless too. He just needs to get his military assets out of Ukraine.

I suggest that you manage your asset portfolio on the assumption that your hopes/predictions/whatever have little or no nexus with reality. Until Putin is dead or deposed, the world economic order needs (and at this point I believe will)  quarantine Russia as much as possible as rapidly as possible.

What Putin really needs is a good killing.

[Zinneke]

How buyable are Russian generals? Like at what point do they realise Putin is taking them over the precipice and realize he has to go.

[Gass3268]

More example of a run on atms/banks.

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1497932893431025665?s=20&t=39s_Owot...

[Mr. Illini]

lol okay so even Die Linke applauded Scholz's announcement. DIE LINKE. They also admitted openly in their parliamentary speech that they never expected Russia to do this, and how they were wrong on Russia.

I’ve heard similar “reflections” among the American left, and tbh it is stunning to me. It really reveals how naive they have been.

[Person Man]

Glad that now there will be talks.  Most things Putin has been demanding are reasonable in my view and Ukraine should try to meet him halfway on that.  

What is not reasonable and I hope Putin drops are

a) Ukraine demilitarization (not even clear what that means, does it mean no Ukraine army or a Ukraine army with no weapons) - this is not a reasonable demand on a sovereign nation  
b)  Zelensky has to go - this does not benefit Russia anyway.  Unless Putin wants to annex Ukraine whole (then why have talks at all) Putin will need someone on the Ukraine side to make the deal (which most in West Ukraine will be negative on) to make it stick.  Zelensky sounds like the man for the job.  For sure a Russian puppet cannot make the deal stick in Western Ukraine

With respect, what you write does not make much sense to me. You opine almost as if this was pre invasion where the invasion had never happened. You can't put humpty dumpty back together again. What does "neutrality" even mean? Even if an attack an one is an attack on all is not on a piece of paper,  Ukraine needs to be armed to the teeth on a subsidized basis, and its people are not going to accept being a vassal of Russia and told what to do by Russia ala Belarus. That ship has sailed.

It seems more likely now that even if Russia takes over the key points in Ukraine, it will face a debilitating guerilla war that will end up destabilizing Russia no matter what Putin does. I don't see what further can be offered Putin. Ukraine being part of NATO was not in the cards before. I suppose it is more in the cards now, and Putin could be offered that it won't happen as a fig leaf, but if in lieu thereof, Ukraine is weaponized by the west as described above, it is still a Putin defeat. Putin has forced the hand of the civilized world to make him the loser. All other options are worse. I might add that Putin has no interest in honoring any agreement that he enters into when it proves inconvenient for him, so any such pieces of paper are largely worthless too. He just needs to get his military assets out of Ukraine.

I suggest that you manage your asset portfolio on the assumption that your hopes/predictions/whatever have little or no nexus with reality. Until Putin is dead or deposed, the world economic order needs (and at this point I believe will)  quarantine Russia as much as possible as rapidly as possible.

What Putin really needs is a good killing.

Based

[Person Man]

lol okay so even Die Linke applauded Scholz's announcement. DIE LINKE. They also admitted openly in their parliamentary speech that they never expected Russia to do this, and how they were wrong on Russia.

I’ve heard similar “reflections” among the American left, and tbh it is stunning to me. It really reveals how naive they have been.

I’m just glad that it wasn’t too late but still for many.

[lfromnj]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/27/world/europe/germany-military-budget-russia-ukraine.html

Here's the article about German military budget increase. I remain skeptical of the 2% target by these liars piggybacking off us.I think 1.75% is actually what should be spent ideally but a target is a target and these cowards have hid behind the US for 15 years

[afleitch]

I imagine that if the vote was today, those margins would be significantly closer. Ukraine, even eastern Ukraine has become significantly less pro Russia.

I think it's not so much that they are less pro Russia, but instead have a greater attachment to Ukraine. The conflict if anything has strengthened that; Russian 'values', culturally, whatever they may tangibly be, are best demonstrated by Ukraine.

[pppolitics]

What is with this idealism from everyone here that a military agreement with the Russian Federation not related to nuclear arms control is worth the paper it's signed on? How delusional do you have to be to think they'd honor any sort of ceasefire/treaty?

Reiterating. Their government doesn’t believe in rule of law, only rule of power. Russia will break it and try to install a puppet regime the moment they think they can.

Maybe it's worth it just to live to fight another day

[BlueSwan]

lol okay so even Die Linke applauded Scholz's announcement. DIE LINKE. They also admitted openly in their parliamentary speech that they never expected Russia to do this, and how they were wrong on Russia.

I’ve heard similar “reflections” among the American left, and tbh it is stunning to me. It really reveals how naive they have been.

Well, we need more reflections like that. But yes, it is indeed stunning. One thing is that the far right nationalists have a hard on for Putin, but I expect more from the left.

[compucomp]

The Ukrainians are certainly in a much stronger position for these peace talks than when Zelensky was asking for them two days ago. Still, I don't think he will get status quo ante bellum here. Russian forces have fallen short of expectations for sure but they are still winning in the sense that they hold Ukrainian territory, including some important parts in the South near Crimea.

Zelensky gave in on the location of the talks only after the SWIFT and Central bank sanctions.  That way he will go in knowing that Russia knows time is not on their side.  Of course, he has to be realistic on how much he can get away with no concessions.

Very true. However, if the fighting continues, the median result now is probably that Ukraine will lose its major cities (Kiev, Kharkov in particular) in time after some protracted and destructive fighting. They're also in some danger of having their forces in the Donbass encircled. This is not the Winter War where the Finns held the Soviets at the border for months. While Russia will definitely be weakened by the sanctions, Ukraine and particularly the Ukrainian people are still likely to lose most from continued fighting. So if Ukraine is going for an end to the war now they will likely have to give up something, like swearing non-aligned status.

[BlueSwan]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/27/world/europe/germany-military-budget-russia-ukraine.html

Here's the article about German military budget increase. I remain skeptical of the 2% target by these liars piggybacking off us.I think 1.75% is actually what should be spent ideally but a target is a target and these cowards have hid behind the US for 15 years

OK, easy now. The US military budget would not be one cent smaller if every NATO member had spent 2% of GDP. Infact, the extremely large US military budget really has no relation to NATO at all.

[lfromnj]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/27/world/europe/germany-military-budget-russia-ukraine.html

Here's the article about German military budget increase. I remain skeptical of the 2% target by these liars piggybacking off us.I think 1.75% is actually what should be spent ideally but a target is a target and these cowards have hid behind the US for 15 years

OK, easy now. The US military budget would not be one cent smaller if every NATO member had spent 2% of GDP. Infact, the extremely large US military budget really has no relation to NATO at all.

I agree the US Spends more for other reasons but Western Europe other than the UK has found it easy to hide behind the US . Leeches.