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CSIR's first projection out and it's quite something.


ANC 42% (-15.5)
DA 27.5 % (+6.5)
MK 13% (new)
EFF 9% (-2)
PA 2% (new)

I mean, it's just pissing in the wind trying to attract 'yer da' types on Facebook. Nothing really lost.

I might be misconstruing this, because I’ve been doing some work with a small business that lives and dies off Meta advertising to 35-65s. But it’s feels like a massive oversight, surely?

Sure, Facebook trends older - but so do voters! Individual Tory candidates are spending thousands on Meta ads. The Lib Dems are running four different ads targeting Scottish voters alone.

I'm not sure what the exact age demographics were for MySpace and Friends Reunited back in the mid-to-late 2000s, but I'm pretty sure the latter skewed a lot older than Facebook does and the former skewed a lot younger than TikTok does. Yes, MySpace and Friends Reunited both had more of a specific theme that would skew their demographics, but that's kind of the point. 

Quite a few non white voters who always were conservative but were residually democratic

TX can be below 10 percent it depends on Allred and his ability to come back from this deficit he faces. He can still win but his chances are quickly vanished.

Allred is down, you don't hear much about him anymore, but if TX is below 10 and Trump is convicted there is a small chance that TX can flip

He is a Kennedy that's why, but he isn't Secular he is Libertarian, or Conserv leaning like Arnold Schwarzenegger

[Trump Jury Verdict]

Trump Jury Verdict

https://youtu.be/lNYCujza8JU

[Big Night with Biden]

Big Night with Biden

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C7bJYL3v_ow/

Los Lobos - Donna

A Prez isn't a dictator, Trump knows that, he just wants to be on TV. The only power Prez have is to sign bills from Congress and use his power of persuasion to Congress to pass bills


Even if Trump is reelected he will be checked by Congress

All we need is 270 and it goes to the H for recount and NE and ME split their delegates according to the EC votes map

[Trump calls for the termination of the Constitution in Truth Social post]

Not nervous, but somewhat worried. The thought of Trump returning to office terrifies me, tbh.

As I said, I'm not making any predictions yet, but initially thought the current election cycle would be similar to 2012, where the incumbent appeared vulnerable at first but improved as the election year approached. However, if we're being honest, this has not been the case so far. In 2012, Obama was able to define his challenger as an out-of-touch elitist, but in 2020, Trump seemed headed for defeat by June after the first Covid bump. Despite a decent economy and a large cash advantage, Biden is still struggling in key battlegrounds, although he is in a better position than his predecessor was at this stage four years ago.

I think dems are exaggerating the harm Trump might do in a second term. He will kill woke policies of Biden but other than that, it'll be business as usual. And dems will actually have a nice midterm in 2026 if Trump wins.

if its a free and fair election.  I would not put it past Republicans to nominate him for an illegal third term.

Can you guys stop fear mongering every single moment that if trump win it the end of democracy?.

Trump calls for the termination of the Constitution in Truth Social post

This is not 'fearmongering'.  We are responding to a clear and present threat.