Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[2016]

IMO it doesn't matter who controls the Senate.

The Democrats Dream that they can do "New Green Deal" "Court Packing" "D. C. & PR Statehood" "Ending Filibuster" pass "Heroes Act" are non existent with a 50-50 Senate and a best-case scenario 224-211 House.

Just not going to happen! Biden needed a bigger Congressional Margin to do that (Obama 2009).

Court packing and green new deal won't happen and I dont know what the heroes act is but we are definitely passing PR and DC statehood and ending the filibuster of we win the senate

Manchin already said he won't support ending the filibuster EVEN if Democrats take the Senate. Manchin wouldn't support PR & D.C. Statehood either! Dianne Feinstein also came out against ending the filibuster!

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1335376629653254146

This is beyond cultish. How are people going to react on 1/20?

Not surprised. These people love to vote. In a close race though, it may come down to just a few thousand people skipping the runoffs because they don’t trust the system. My guess is this is a tactic by the GOP to draw attention to the race and turn their voters out.

[7,052,770]

IMO it doesn't matter who controls the Senate.

The Democrats Dream that they can do "New Green Deal" "Court Packing" "D. C. & PR Statehood" "Ending Filibuster" pass "Heroes Act" are non existent with a 50-50 Senate and a best-case scenario 224-211 House.

Just not going to happen! Biden needed a bigger Congressional Margin to do that (Obama 2009).

Court packing and green new deal won't happen and I dont know what the heroes act is but we are definitely passing PR and DC statehood and ending the filibuster of we win the senate

Manchin already said he won't support ending the filibuster EVEN if Democrats take the Senate. Manchin wouldn't support PR & D.C. Statehood either! Dianne Feinstein also came out against ending the filibuster!

Manchin will NOT stand in the way of DC statehood, and it's absurd to suggest that he would see no problem with Americans being locked out of representation on partisan grounds.

If Warnock and Ossoff win, the only question is whether Douglass is admitted in January or February.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs are just saying this, due to fact they think 2022 is good for them and they can prevent Statehood should the Senate be divided heading into 2022

Eventhough if D's pass 1200 stimulus checks with a D majority, Rs would benefit too

[2016]

IMO it doesn't matter who controls the Senate.

The Democrats Dream that they can do "New Green Deal" "Court Packing" "D. C. & PR Statehood" "Ending Filibuster" pass "Heroes Act" are non existent with a 50-50 Senate and a best-case scenario 224-211 House.

Just not going to happen! Biden needed a bigger Congressional Margin to do that (Obama 2009).

Court packing and green new deal won't happen and I dont know what the heroes act is but we are definitely passing PR and DC statehood and ending the filibuster of we win the senate

Manchin already said he won't support ending the filibuster EVEN if Democrats take the Senate. Manchin wouldn't support PR & D.C. Statehood either! Dianne Feinstein also came out against ending the filibuster!

Manchin will NOT stand in the way of DC statehood, and it's absurd to suggest that he would see no problem with Americans being locked out of representation on partisan grounds.

If Warnock and Ossoff win, the only question is whether Douglass is admitted in January or February.

Democrats would need to end the filibuster in the Senate to pass D. C. Statehood House Bill. You need 60 Votes for that and both Manchin & Feinstein said that they won't end it so what are you smoking here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol, they dont have to go by what they say, Politicians lie.  You keep saying this, but we have to wait and see. You just want this to happen, so the Rs don't get locked out

[DrScholl]

IMO it doesn't matter who controls the Senate.

The Democrats Dream that they can do "New Green Deal" "Court Packing" "D. C. & PR Statehood" "Ending Filibuster" pass "Heroes Act" are non existent with a 50-50 Senate and a best-case scenario 224-211 House.

Just not going to happen! Biden needed a bigger Congressional Margin to do that (Obama 2009).

Court packing and green new deal won't happen and I dont know what the heroes act is but we are definitely passing PR and DC statehood and ending the filibuster of we win the senate

Manchin already said he won't support ending the filibuster EVEN if Democrats take the Senate. Manchin wouldn't support PR & D.C. Statehood either! Dianne Feinstein also came out against ending the filibuster!

Manchin will NOT stand in the way of DC statehood, and it's absurd to suggest that he would see no problem with Americans being locked out of representation on partisan grounds.

If Warnock and Ossoff win, the only question is whether Douglass is admitted in January or February.

Democrats would need to end the filibuster in the Senate to pass D. C. Statehood House Bill. You need 60 Votes for that and both Manchin & Feinstein said that they won't end it so what are you smoking here.

Trump lost. Get over it. You've traded an unhealthy confidence over a cult leader winning for an unhealthy obsession with the filibuster.

[7,052,770]

IMO it doesn't matter who controls the Senate.

The Democrats Dream that they can do "New Green Deal" "Court Packing" "D. C. & PR Statehood" "Ending Filibuster" pass "Heroes Act" are non existent with a 50-50 Senate and a best-case scenario 224-211 House.

Just not going to happen! Biden needed a bigger Congressional Margin to do that (Obama 2009).

Court packing and green new deal won't happen and I dont know what the heroes act is but we are definitely passing PR and DC statehood and ending the filibuster of we win the senate

Manchin already said he won't support ending the filibuster EVEN if Democrats take the Senate. Manchin wouldn't support PR & D.C. Statehood either! Dianne Feinstein also came out against ending the filibuster!

Manchin will NOT stand in the way of DC statehood, and it's absurd to suggest that he would see no problem with Americans being locked out of representation on partisan grounds.

If Warnock and Ossoff win, the only question is whether Douglass is admitted in January or February.

Democrats would need to end the filibuster in the Senate to pass D. C. Statehood House Bill. You need 60 Votes for that and both Manchin & Feinstein said that they won't end it so what are you smoking here.

As has been discussed extensively here, it only takes 50+VP votes to change the filibuster rules. Just like Republicans used a simple majority to change the filibuster rules for confirming Supreme Court justices (but kept the rules in place for everything else) in 2017, Democrats can and will use a simple majority to change the filibuster rules for the admission of new states (but keep the rules in place for everything else) in 2021 if they win the 2 Georgia seats.

DC will then be admitted 50-50 with Kamala breaking the tie, and Puerto Rico will be admitted later in 2021 assuming the terms are all hashed out with the Puerto Rican government, but that one will be something like 72-30 or maybe even unanimous.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

IMO it doesn't matter who controls the Senate.

The Democrats Dream that they can do "New Green Deal" "Court Packing" "D. C. & PR Statehood" "Ending Filibuster" pass "Heroes Act" are non existent with a 50-50 Senate and a best-case scenario 224-211 House.

Just not going to happen! Biden needed a bigger Congressional Margin to do that (Obama 2009).

Court packing and green new deal won't happen and I dont know what the heroes act is but we are definitely passing PR and DC statehood and ending the filibuster of we win the senate

Manchin already said he won't support ending the filibuster EVEN if Democrats take the Senate. Manchin wouldn't support PR & D.C. Statehood either! Dianne Feinstein also came out against ending the filibuster!

Manchin will NOT stand in the way of DC statehood, and it's absurd to suggest that he would see no problem with Americans being locked out of representation on partisan grounds.

If Warnock and Ossoff win, the only question is whether Douglass is admitted in January or February.

Democrats would need to end the filibuster in the Senate to pass D. C. Statehood House Bill. You need 60 Votes for that and both Manchin & Feinstein said that they won't end it so what are you smoking here.

Several Democrats also said they would never vote for amnesty and voted against comprehensive reform in 2006 and 2007. That is until their vote was needed in 2013 and Harry Reid gave them a call...

You seriously banking everything on Manchin or Feinstein?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's called limited filibuster repeal, allowing certain legislation to pass like 1200 stimulus checks and perhaps Statehood, but not weed legalization and Green New Deal, that's how Manchin, Sinema and Feinstein will play it


I can't say about Statehood but all 3 D's definitely want 2.2T stimulus to pass

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1335401538244595712?s=20

[WD]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1335396015277568000?s=21

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA_RO.html

What's interesting is according to this, 6.6% of the people who requested mail ballots didn't vote in the GE. Most people this race as a matter of subtraction; who will be leaving the electorate, but it looks like there will be a sizeable numbers of voters being added to the electorate who will also have an impact.

[7,052,770]

It's so pathetic how they dance around the fact that Trump lost but can't say it.

Sorry, Qelly, but you don't "lose the country" even if W & O win if Trump does too. The "lose the country" only applies under a Biden presidency. So you know it and imply it, but still can't just say it.

[DrScholl]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1335396015277568000?s=21

Had it been a Kelly Loeffler only rally there would have been no one there at all. She is not a compelling candidate at all.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Does anyone know where to find a spreadsheet of all the voter IDs who voted in the 2020 GE ? I want to try to calculate where these 6.6% of non-2020 voters are coming from.

[forsythvoter]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1335376629653254146
This is beyond cultish. How are people going to react on 1/20?

Not surprised. These people love to vote. In a close race though, it may come down to just a few thousand people skipping the runoffs because they don’t trust the system. My guess is this is a tactic by the GOP to draw attention to the race and turn their voters out.

I think the risk is that doing this will actually turn off less Trumpy voters who still voted for Trump. There are still a number of those voters even in areas that already heavily swung to Biden. I was talking with my dad about the election today (he still voted for Trump but not because of any love for the candidate) and he's thinking about abstaining from the runoffs because he's just disgusted with the national GOP throwing local Rs under the bus just because they didn't like the election results.

[forsythvoter]

IMO it doesn't matter who controls the Senate.

The Democrats Dream that they can do "New Green Deal" "Court Packing" "D. C. & PR Statehood" "Ending Filibuster" pass "Heroes Act" are non existent with a 50-50 Senate and a best-case scenario 224-211 House.

Just not going to happen! Biden needed a bigger Congressional Margin to do that (Obama 2009).

I've been starting to think this as well. Biden strikes me as pretty sensible and with a narrow majority I would think the Ds would tailor their policies accordingly.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1335376629653254146
This is beyond cultish. How are people going to react on 1/20?

Not surprised. These people love to vote. In a close race though, it may come down to just a few thousand people skipping the runoffs because they don’t trust the system. My guess is this is a tactic by the GOP to draw attention to the race and turn their voters out.

I think the risk is that doing this will actually turn off less Trumpy voters who still voted for Trump. There are still a number of those voters even in areas that already heavily swung to Biden. I was talking with my dad about the election today (he still voted for Trump but not because of any love for the candidate) and he's thinking about abstaining from the runoffs because he's just disgusted with the national GOP throwing local Rs under the bus just because they didn't like the election results.

Hmm. very interesting point. It does seem, like the GOP is starting to split in this race between the full Trumpists and the lighter supporters. I think if they want to win, they're ultimate message has to be a check on Biden, which can be interpreted as preventing Biden from overreaching or stopping this country from become socialists or whatever. Focusing too much on the 2020 results isn't worth it because it creates an unnecessary fracture in their base.

[forsythvoter]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1335376629653254146
This is beyond cultish. How are people going to react on 1/20?

Not surprised. These people love to vote. In a close race though, it may come down to just a few thousand people skipping the runoffs because they don’t trust the system. My guess is this is a tactic by the GOP to draw attention to the race and turn their voters out.

I think the risk is that doing this will actually turn off less Trumpy voters who still voted for Trump. There are still a number of those voters even in areas that already heavily swung to Biden. I was talking with my dad about the election today (he still voted for Trump but not because of any love for the candidate) and he's thinking about abstaining from the runoffs because he's just disgusted with the national GOP throwing local Rs under the bus just because they didn't like the election results.

Hmm. very interesting point. It does seem, like the GOP is starting to split in this race between the full Trumpists and the lighter supporters. I think if they want to win, they're ultimate message has to be a check on Biden, which can be interpreted as preventing Biden from overreaching or stopping this country from become socialists or whatever. Focusing too much on the 2020 results isn't worth it because it creates an unnecessary fracture in their base.

Completely agreed. A winning R strategy imo would be to message that they will check the far left impulses but also work constructively with Biden to get legislation passed. Making the runoffs a referendum on Trump risks turning off the same voters that flipped the state for Biden as well as reluctant Trump supporters.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1335376629653254146
This is beyond cultish. How are people going to react on 1/20?

Not surprised. These people love to vote. In a close race though, it may come down to just a few thousand people skipping the runoffs because they don’t trust the system. My guess is this is a tactic by the GOP to draw attention to the race and turn their voters out.

I think the risk is that doing this will actually turn off less Trumpy voters who still voted for Trump. There are still a number of those voters even in areas that already heavily swung to Biden. I was talking with my dad about the election today (he still voted for Trump but not because of any love for the candidate) and he's thinking about abstaining from the runoffs because he's just disgusted with the national GOP throwing local Rs under the bus just because they didn't like the election results.

Hmm. very interesting point. It does seem, like the GOP is starting to split in this race between the full Trumpists and the lighter supporters. I think if they want to win, they're ultimate message has to be a check on Biden, which can be interpreted as preventing Biden from overreaching or stopping this country from become socialists or whatever. Focusing too much on the 2020 results isn't worth it because it creates an unnecessary fracture in their base.

Completely agreed. A winning R strategy imo would be to message that they will check the far left impulses but also work constructively with Biden to get legislation passed. Making the runoffs a referendum on Trump risks turning off the same voters that flipped the state for Biden as well as reluctant Trump supporters.

Just curious; what's it like on the ground there in GA? Do people just casually talk about the runoffs in their local communities? How active have the parties been in trying to get their bases to show up?

[forsythvoter]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1335376629653254146
This is beyond cultish. How are people going to react on 1/20?

Not surprised. These people love to vote. In a close race though, it may come down to just a few thousand people skipping the runoffs because they don’t trust the system. My guess is this is a tactic by the GOP to draw attention to the race and turn their voters out.

I think the risk is that doing this will actually turn off less Trumpy voters who still voted for Trump. There are still a number of those voters even in areas that already heavily swung to Biden. I was talking with my dad about the election today (he still voted for Trump but not because of any love for the candidate) and he's thinking about abstaining from the runoffs because he's just disgusted with the national GOP throwing local Rs under the bus just because they didn't like the election results.

Hmm. very interesting point. It does seem, like the GOP is starting to split in this race between the full Trumpists and the lighter supporters. I think if they want to win, they're ultimate message has to be a check on Biden, which can be interpreted as preventing Biden from overreaching or stopping this country from become socialists or whatever. Focusing too much on the 2020 results isn't worth it because it creates an unnecessary fracture in their base.

Completely agreed. A winning R strategy imo would be to message that they will check the far left impulses but also work constructively with Biden to get legislation passed. Making the runoffs a referendum on Trump risks turning off the same voters that flipped the state for Biden as well as reluctant Trump supporters.

Just curious; what's it like on the ground there in GA? Do people just casually talk about the runoffs in their local communities? How active have the parties been in trying to get their bases to show up?

My sense is it's been quite active on both fronts. The elections and GA runoffs were big Thanksgiving topics and it's been non-stop bombardment from the parties. I literally got 2 text messages last week asking if I had requested an absentee ballot and a few door knockers from both the local Dem and Rep parties. Dems seem to be making a targeted effort to target white millennials judging by their pitches (it's basically saying Congress has been ineffective so it's time to try something new, and btw Trump isn't gone) here while Reps are heavily focused on the D trifecta = far left policies, and only a R Senate can stop that. Ossoff himself also was in this part of Forsyth a few days ago handing out campaign signs and Loeffler  also had a recent rally in Cumming a little bit to the north.

It might depend on community, but my social circle is primarily the area around the N Atlanta suburbs - I live in South Forsyth County, my wife's parents live in East Cobb and my parents live in Dunwoody. These are areas that are going to have high turnout on Jan 5 regardless, but the parties definitely are not taking their chances.

[SCNCmod]

My sense is it's been quite active on both fronts. The elections and GA runoffs were big Thanksgiving topics and it's been non-stop bombardment from the parties. I literally got 2 text messages last week asking if I had requested an absentee ballot and a few door knockers from both the local Dem and Rep parties. Dems seem to be making a targeted effort to target white millennials judging by their pitches (it's basically saying Congress has been ineffective so it's time to try something new, and btw Trump isn't gone) here while Reps are heavily focused on the D trifecta = far left policies, and only a R Senate can stop that. Ossoff himself also was in this part of Forsyth a few days ago handing out campaign signs and Loeffler  also had a recent rally in Cumming a little bit to the north.

It might depend on community, but my social circle is primarily the area around the N Atlanta suburbs - I live in South Forsyth County, my wife's parents live in East Cobb and my parents live in Dunwoody. These are areas that are going to have high turnout on Jan 5 regardless, but the parties definitely are not taking their chances.

Will most people who voted by mail in the primary... be very inclined to do so in the runoff (maybe due to the little time commitment it involves, familiar with the process now, etc)?

Are mainstream Dems (rather than Ind's who vote Dem) motivated at all by getting McConnel out of power (due to things like blocking Garland from getting a vote, etc)?

Who do you think ends up winning?

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1335376629653254146
This is beyond cultish. How are people going to react on 1/20?

Not surprised. These people love to vote. In a close race though, it may come down to just a few thousand people skipping the runoffs because they don’t trust the system. My guess is this is a tactic by the GOP to draw attention to the race and turn their voters out.

I think the risk is that doing this will actually turn off less Trumpy voters who still voted for Trump. There are still a number of those voters even in areas that already heavily swung to Biden. I was talking with my dad about the election today (he still voted for Trump but not because of any love for the candidate) and he's thinking about abstaining from the runoffs because he's just disgusted with the national GOP throwing local Rs under the bus just because they didn't like the election results.

Hmm. very interesting point. It does seem, like the GOP is starting to split in this race between the full Trumpists and the lighter supporters. I think if they want to win, they're ultimate message has to be a check on Biden, which can be interpreted as preventing Biden from overreaching or stopping this country from become socialists or whatever. Focusing too much on the 2020 results isn't worth it because it creates an unnecessary fracture in their base.

Completely agreed. A winning R strategy imo would be to message that they will check the far left impulses but also work constructively with Biden to get legislation passed. Making the runoffs a referendum on Trump risks turning off the same voters that flipped the state for Biden as well as reluctant Trump supporters.

Just curious; what's it like on the ground there in GA? Do people just casually talk about the runoffs in their local communities? How active have the parties been in trying to get their bases to show up?

My sense is it's been quite active on both fronts. The elections and GA runoffs were big Thanksgiving topics and it's been non-stop bombardment from the parties. I literally got 2 text messages last week asking if I had requested an absentee ballot and a few door knockers from both the local Dem and Rep parties. Dems seem to be making a targeted effort to target white millennials judging by their pitches (it's basically saying Congress has been ineffective so it's time to try something new, and btw Trump isn't gone) here while Reps are heavily focused on the D trifecta = far left policies, and only a R Senate can stop that. Ossoff himself also was in this part of Forsyth a few days ago handing out campaign signs and Loeffler  also had a recent rally in Cumming a little bit to the north.

It might depend on community, but my social circle is primarily the area around the N Atlanta suburbs - I live in South Forsyth County, my wife's parents live in East Cobb and my parents live in Dunwoody. These are areas that are going to have high turnout on Jan 5 regardless, but the parties definitely are not taking their chances.

Nice! Gotta feel kinda sorry for y’all constantly being bombarded with political stuff, but these senate races are definitely pivotal to which direction we want our country to head. Hopefully these races will be high turnout and truly representative of what Georgians want

[forsythvoter]

My sense is it's been quite active on both fronts. The elections and GA runoffs were big Thanksgiving topics and it's been non-stop bombardment from the parties. I literally got 2 text messages last week asking if I had requested an absentee ballot and a few door knockers from both the local Dem and Rep parties. Dems seem to be making a targeted effort to target white millennials judging by their pitches (it's basically saying Congress has been ineffective so it's time to try something new, and btw Trump isn't gone) here while Reps are heavily focused on the D trifecta = far left policies, and only a R Senate can stop that. Ossoff himself also was in this part of Forsyth a few days ago handing out campaign signs and Loeffler  also had a recent rally in Cumming a little bit to the north.

It might depend on community, but my social circle is primarily the area around the N Atlanta suburbs - I live in South Forsyth County, my wife's parents live in East Cobb and my parents live in Dunwoody. These are areas that are going to have high turnout on Jan 5 regardless, but the parties definitely are not taking their chances.

Will most people who voted by mail in the primary... be very inclined to do so in the runoff (maybe due to the little time commitment it involves, familiar with the process now, etc)?

Are mainstream Dems (rather than Ind's who vote Dem) motivated at all by getting McConnel out of power (due to things like blocking Garland from getting a vote, etc)?

Who do you think ends up winning?

I think close to a million people requested absentee ballots vs. 1.3M who voted absentee in the general election, so I expect turnout for the runoffs to be around 3.5-4M votes. It's really hard to say which party this benefits, but since this is Atlas, there are a few data points worth discussing:

I think I saw an analysis that said if the absentee ballots vote the same way as their county's absentees did in November, Ds would lead 65-35% and Biden won the November absentee ballot count 61-37%. Republicans would say they are pushing absentees more this time so maybe the November count isn't an accurate benchmark.

The Dems I know are highly motivated, but there honestly aren't that many of them in this area (voting D is a relatively new thing in this part of town, much less identifying as one). I can definitely sense divides within the various R camps here - some like my dad are pretty disgusted with this post-election Trump drama even if they reluctantly voted for him, others are scared to death of a D trifecta and aren't afraid to let you know it, and still others are considering splitting their tickets because they want to send Trump a message while not giving Dems full control at the same time.

I don't have a good sense of who will win - gun to my head I will say Perdue and Warnock. To the extent that voters in this part of town are splitting tickets, Perdue / Warnock seems like the far more common approach, but I can't say the North Atlanta suburbs are representative of other areas of the state.