Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1334959460536774657

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1334959460536774657

Yikes! Do we know if the death was related to COVID?

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1334959460536774657

Yikes! Do we know if the death was related to COVID?

He died "in an accident". RIP

[forza nocta]

Thank u Dem plant, very cool!

https://twitter.com/llinwood/status/1334965583738187781?s=21

[VAR]

^

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1334959460536774657

Yikes! Do we know if the death was related to COVID?

He died "in an accident". RIP

His name's Harrison Deal and was 20 years old and was killed in a car crash today. He was a family friend of Brian Kemp, and some people are saying he was dating one of his daughters. Also, Kemp didn't attend the rally either.

https://www.ajc.com/news/breaking-loeffler-cancels-rally-plans-after-campaign-staffer-dies/BARFFD7WYND27A2M57BMIRP26M/

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1334992531537465344

[KaiserDave]

^

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1334959460536774657

Yikes! Do we know if the death was related to COVID?

He died "in an accident". RIP

His name's Harrison Deal and was 20 years old and was killed in a car crash today. He was a family friend of Brian Kemp, and some people are saying he was dating one of his daughters. Also, Kemp didn't attend the rally either.

https://www.ajc.com/news/breaking-loeffler-cancels-rally-plans-after-campaign-staffer-dies/BARFFD7WYND27A2M57BMIRP26M/

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1334992531537465344

They’re tying him to a Dominion theory???

These people are really sick

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1334994525329100800

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1334959460536774657

Yikes! Do we know if the death was related to COVID?

He died "in an accident". RIP

His name's Harrison Deal and was 20 years old and was killed in a car crash today. He was a family friend of Brian Kemp, and some people are saying he was dating one of his daughters. Also, Kemp didn't attend the rally either.

https://www.ajc.com/news/breaking-loeffler-cancels-rally-plans-after-campaign-staffer-dies/BARFFD7WYND27A2M57BMIRP26M/

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1334992531537465344

Loeffler & Kemp are the new Clintons, got it.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Things are looking very good for the dems right now I'm cautiously optimistic that we can get control of the senate.

Don't jinx it! Stay silent and let the GOP continue to run around like a headless chicken for the dumbest reasons possible. 

[Canis]

Things are looking very good for the dems right now I'm cautiously optimistic that we can get control of the senate.

Don't jinx it! Stay silent and let the GOP continue to run around like a headless chicken for the dumbest reasons possible. 

I figured reps would be more motivated to turn out but Trump's lawyer telling reps not to vote and Trump attacking the GA republicans could really prove decisive if just 5% of reps don't vote because of this it could very easily prove decisive with a result as close as we had in November plus all the insider trading stuff should really turnoff indys and moderates who might have been for Perdue and Loeffler Dems aren't completely favored this will come down to turnout and likely be very close I have Regular at Tossup and the special at Tilt Warnock so the race is far from over but things look good for the Dems rn

[Progressive Pessimist]

Things are looking very good for the dems right now I'm cautiously optimistic that we can get control of the senate.

Don't jinx it! Stay silent and let the GOP continue to run around like a headless chicken for the dumbest reasons possible. 

I figured reps would be more motivated to turn out but Trump's lawyer telling reps not to vote and Trump attacking the GA republicans could really prove decisive if just 5% of reps don't vote because of this it could very easily prove decisive with a result as close as we had in November plus all the insider trading stuff should really turnoff indys and moderates who might have been for Perdue and Loeffler Dems aren't completely favored this will come down to turnout and likely be very close I have Regular at Tossup and the special at Tilt Warnock so the race is far from over but things look good for the Dems rn

I would love it if the Republicans did end up shooting themselves in the foot with their conspiracies here, but I don't think that the base will listen unless Trump says something like that himself. I don't think too many Trump zealots actually hang on the words of his lawyers.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1334959460536774657

Yikes! Do we know if the death was related to COVID?

He died "in an accident". RIP

His name's Harrison Deal and was 20 years old and was killed in a car crash today. He was a family friend of Brian Kemp, and some people are saying he was dating one of his daughters. Also, Kemp didn't attend the rally either.

https://www.ajc.com/news/breaking-loeffler-cancels-rally-plans-after-campaign-staffer-dies/BARFFD7WYND27A2M57BMIRP26M/

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1334992531537465344

Loeffler & Kemp are the new Clintons, got it.

I'm surprised that blame for Deal's death wasn't placed on the Clintons. And judging by his name, is it possible that he's a relation of former Governor Nathan Deal?

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1334959460536774657

Yikes! Do we know if the death was related to COVID?

He died "in an accident". RIP

His name's Harrison Deal and was 20 years old and was killed in a car crash today. He was a family friend of Brian Kemp, and some people are saying he was dating one of his daughters. Also, Kemp didn't attend the rally either.

https://www.ajc.com/news/breaking-loeffler-cancels-rally-plans-after-campaign-staffer-dies/BARFFD7WYND27A2M57BMIRP26M/

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1334992531537465344

Loeffler & Kemp are the new Clintons, got it.

I'm surprised that blame for Deal's death wasn't placed on the Clintons. And judging by his name, is it possible that he's a relation of former Governor Nathan Deal?

I read that they're of no relation.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Absolute LOL at anyone thinking that level of ticket splitting will occur

[Calthrina950]

Absolute LOL at anyone thinking that level of ticket splitting will occur

Why is it so? Polls have shown that hundreds of thousands of rural Georgians stand at the ready to vote for the flawless, telegenic young man Jon Ossoff who reminds them of their own grandson and who will stand up for their values! At the same time, educated suburbanites in Marietta and Sandy Springs know that they can rely upon David Perdue. They trust him, and many of them know him as a neighbor with whom they've had an annual barbecue! Thus, they're going to support him!

On the other hand, educated suburbanites and rural Georgians alike know that Kelly Loeffler is looking out for all of them, and they're not going to vote for the radical leftist Raphael Warnock, who's said that he loves Castro's regime and isn't a real pastor. He'll be lucky to get 30% of the vote!

Sarcasm.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I do think Osoff will slightly outrun Warnock, but there will be very little crossover.  IIRC, Osoff got 2% more in November than the combined Democratic total in the special election.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I thinking underrated possibility is that Loeffler slightly outruns Perdue because of a small number of Republicans who think Perdue is too much part of the establishment and wish he was more aggressive in
his rhetoric, so they'll just leave that ballot blank. Again, emphasis on the word small, but in this polarized day and age, over/under performances can come down to a few very specific voters.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Folks on the ground in Georgia, what's your read?  What does the local coverage look like?

From 2,500 miles away, I'm seeing a lot of negative characterization of Warnock that seems like it will be pretty effective (despite being false) if he can't find a stronger retort.  Meanwhile the attempts to pin Loeffler/Perdue with financial crimes don't seem to be sticking (despite being true).  However, most of what I'm hearing out of Georgia isn't about the Senate race, it's about the Presidential race, with Trump's team essentially in an all-out war with the Republican governor, secretary of state, and state party, which looks really cringey for anyone still standing by Trump.  I'm also seeing a fair amount of "stand up for Trump by not voting for Loeffler/Perdue", but it feels like it's being over-magnified by social media.  Overall I'd say both races are Lean R, but if the Trump nonsense continues to dominate headlines and Loeffler/Perdue have a stumbling interview or two about it, or Warnock/Ossoff a really good headline-making quote about it, they could move towards toss-up.

How accurate is this? 

[roxas11]

Folks on the ground in Georgia, what's your read?  What does the local coverage look like?

From 2,500 miles away, I'm seeing a lot of negative characterization of Warnock that seems like it will be pretty effective (despite being false) if he can't find a stronger retort.  Meanwhile the attempts to pin Loeffler/Perdue with financial crimes don't seem to be sticking (despite being true).  However, most of what I'm hearing out of Georgia isn't about the Senate race, it's about the Presidential race, with Trump's team essentially in an all-out war with the Republican governor, secretary of state, and state party, which looks really cringey for anyone still standing by Trump.  I'm also seeing a fair amount of "stand up for Trump by not voting for Loeffler/Perdue", but it feels like it's being over-magnified by social media.  Overall I'd say both races are Lean R, but if the Trump nonsense continues to dominate headlines and Loeffler/Perdue have a stumbling interview or two about it, or Warnock/Ossoff a really good headline-making quote about it, they could move towards toss-up.

How accurate is this? 

Honestly it is not clear to me that these attacks are effective

Just look at the recent polls that have came out showing Warnock/Ossoff winning
Now even if we assume that poll is off or even wrong

the fact that both Warnock/Ossoff are in the lead in the first place after the GOP has spent all this time throwing everything they can at Warnock......does not bode well for them at all


Now maybe Loeffler/Perdue will still go on to win it but from where I'm sitting this race is far more of a tossup than I thought it was just a few weeks ago...

[KaiserDave]

Again though these types of crackpot lunatic theories aren’t new, remember Seth Rich?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I do think Osoff will slightly outrun Warnock, but there will be very little crossover.  IIRC, Osoff got 2% more in November than the combined Democratic total in the special election.

I believe the combined Dems in the special election actually did slightly better than Osoff, about 48.4%-48.0%.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Folks on the ground in Georgia, what's your read?  What does the local coverage look like?

From 2,500 miles away, I'm seeing a lot of negative characterization of Warnock that seems like it will be pretty effective (despite being false) if he can't find a stronger retort.  Meanwhile the attempts to pin Loeffler/Perdue with financial crimes don't seem to be sticking (despite being true).  However, most of what I'm hearing out of Georgia isn't about the Senate race, it's about the Presidential race, with Trump's team essentially in an all-out war with the Republican governor, secretary of state, and state party, which looks really cringey for anyone still standing by Trump.  I'm also seeing a fair amount of "stand up for Trump by not voting for Loeffler/Perdue", but it feels like it's being over-magnified by social media.  Overall I'd say both races are Lean R, but if the Trump nonsense continues to dominate headlines and Loeffler/Perdue have a stumbling interview or two about it, or Warnock/Ossoff a really good headline-making quote about it, they could move towards toss-up.

How accurate is this? 

Not from GA but generally I agree with your analysis. At the end of the day though, this election will come down to turnout rather than attacks; attacks may help to rile up the opposing base though. Even the few number of "swing voters" there actually is probably already know how they will vote. The real power of the attacks, as I just said, is base turnout; if the GOP van paint Warnock as a socialists, basically no Democrats will buy it, but on the ground in Republican leaning communities, you might hear "Hey did you know Warnock is a socialists. You must vote on January 5th to protect your freedom". The issue with the stock trade attacks is while it paints Loeffler and Perdue as bad people, it doesn't convey to people why it's so important to vote out Perdue and Loeffler.

[compucomp]

Folks on the ground in Georgia, what's your read?  What does the local coverage look like?

From 2,500 miles away, I'm seeing a lot of negative characterization of Warnock that seems like it will be pretty effective (despite being false) if he can't find a stronger retort.  Meanwhile the attempts to pin Loeffler/Perdue with financial crimes don't seem to be sticking (despite being true).  However, most of what I'm hearing out of Georgia isn't about the Senate race, it's about the Presidential race, with Trump's team essentially in an all-out war with the Republican governor, secretary of state, and state party, which looks really cringey for anyone still standing by Trump.  I'm also seeing a fair amount of "stand up for Trump by not voting for Loeffler/Perdue", but it feels like it's being over-magnified by social media.  Overall I'd say both races are Lean R, but if the Trump nonsense continues to dominate headlines and Loeffler/Perdue have a stumbling interview or two about it, or Warnock/Ossoff a really good headline-making quote about it, they could move towards toss-up.

How accurate is this? 

Not from GA but generally I agree with your analysis. At the end of the day though, this election will come down to turnout rather than attacks; attacks may help to rile up the opposing base though. Even the few number of "swing voters" there actually is probably already know how they will vote. The real power of the attacks, as I just said, is base turnout; if the GOP van paint Warnock as a socialists, basically no Democrats will buy it, but on the ground in Republican leaning communities, you might hear "Hey did you know Warnock is a socialists. You must vote on January 5th to protect your freedom". The issue with the stock trade attacks is while it paints Loeffler and Perdue as bad people, it doesn't convey to people why it's so important to vote out Perdue and Loeffler.

What happened to "these incumbents are using their public office to enrich themselves at your expense and no longer deserve to hold it. Vote for me, the challenger"? I understand why "low information" and very partisan voters don't care but college educated voters (like most Biden-Perdue ticket splitters) should respond well to this kind of attack since they value good governance.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Folks on the ground in Georgia, what's your read?  What does the local coverage look like?

From 2,500 miles away, I'm seeing a lot of negative characterization of Warnock that seems like it will be pretty effective (despite being false) if he can't find a stronger retort.  Meanwhile the attempts to pin Loeffler/Perdue with financial crimes don't seem to be sticking (despite being true).  However, most of what I'm hearing out of Georgia isn't about the Senate race, it's about the Presidential race, with Trump's team essentially in an all-out war with the Republican governor, secretary of state, and state party, which looks really cringey for anyone still standing by Trump.  I'm also seeing a fair amount of "stand up for Trump by not voting for Loeffler/Perdue", but it feels like it's being over-magnified by social media.  Overall I'd say both races are Lean R, but if the Trump nonsense continues to dominate headlines and Loeffler/Perdue have a stumbling interview or two about it, or Warnock/Ossoff a really good headline-making quote about it, they could move towards toss-up.

How accurate is this? 

Not from GA but generally I agree with your analysis. At the end of the day though, this election will come down to turnout rather than attacks; attacks may help to rile up the opposing base though. Even the few number of "swing voters" there actually is probably already know how they will vote. The real power of the attacks, as I just said, is base turnout; if the GOP van paint Warnock as a socialists, basically no Democrats will buy it, but on the ground in Republican leaning communities, you might hear "Hey did you know Warnock is a socialists. You must vote on January 5th to protect your freedom". The issue with the stock trade attacks is while it paints Loeffler and Perdue as bad people, it doesn't convey to people why it's so important to vote out Perdue and Loeffler.

What happened to "these incumbents are using their public office to enrich themselves at your expense and no longer deserve to hold it. Vote for me, the challenger"? I understand why "low information" and very partisan voters don't care but college educated voters (like most Biden-Perdue ticket splitters) should respond well to this kind of attack since they value good governance.

Polarization at work, plus fear of what the other side will do with complete power.

[wbrocks67]

Folks on the ground in Georgia, what's your read?  What does the local coverage look like?

From 2,500 miles away, I'm seeing a lot of negative characterization of Warnock that seems like it will be pretty effective (despite being false) if he can't find a stronger retort.  Meanwhile the attempts to pin Loeffler/Perdue with financial crimes don't seem to be sticking (despite being true).  However, most of what I'm hearing out of Georgia isn't about the Senate race, it's about the Presidential race, with Trump's team essentially in an all-out war with the Republican governor, secretary of state, and state party, which looks really cringey for anyone still standing by Trump.  I'm also seeing a fair amount of "stand up for Trump by not voting for Loeffler/Perdue", but it feels like it's being over-magnified by social media.  Overall I'd say both races are Lean R, but if the Trump nonsense continues to dominate headlines and Loeffler/Perdue have a stumbling interview or two about it, or Warnock/Ossoff a really good headline-making quote about it, they could move towards toss-up.

How accurate is this? 

Seems odd that you think that all Warnock attacks are effective and Loeffler attacks are not? I don't particularly think the corruption angle is going to do much (bc it doesn't seem to work with anyone like it used to - though Perdue did bring it up in his ads so maybe it's hurting him a bit), but a lot of the Warnock stuff seems to be falling flat as well.