Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Torie]

Well I trusted you guys in a lapse of judgement (trust but verify), but in MD-06 the Pub Parrot is ahead and the splits absent a somewhat material variation between counted and uncounted votes (the uncounted votes per the county splits also favor Parrot a bit, and the notion it was the opposite seems to be an urban legend, or at least an Atlas legend), so MD-06 moves in the Torie universe moves from likely Dem to lean Pub. So the Torie projection moves from 219.5 to 220.25.

Where are you seeing this info btw. I'm surprised how remarkably quiet people have been about MD-06.

If Dems lose it, another big L considering it's a Biden + 10 seat in the DC area.

I look at CNN for the county splits and percentage of vote counted.

But shouldn't you use a breakdown of the type of votes outstanding when you make your projections?

Sure if there is any info in the public square that I don't know, and some other Atlasian does.
Do you have some info you want to share to enlighten all of Atlasia, and perhaps cause great rejoicing, or at least declare that it is beer time?

?? I don't have any inside knowledge, just what's been widely reported and discussed here and by the "experts" on Twitter

Praise Jesus.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's a local source for MD-06.  It's count so far matches the NYT.  Is says there are 33k uncounted mail ballots, which have thus far been going to Trone 75-25.  And Montgomery County won't start counting it's portion of them until Saturday.

https://www.fredericknewspost.com/news/continuing_coverage/election_coverage/6th-district-rematch-between-trone-and-parrott-still-undecided/article_75c2c571-0e5c-5e39-8efd-72823f414073.html

What is the margin for Parrot right now, in votes already counted?

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Boebert has got to be a top target in 2024.

Really annoyed that the Colorado commission didn't give her some Boulder.

[Roll Roons]

Maybe Boebert will learn to get her s**t together, but I wouldn't be surprised if she loses a primary a la Cawthorn in 2024.

[It’s so Joever]

Here's a local source for MD-06.  It's count so far matches the NYT.  Is says there are 33k uncounted mail ballots, which have thus far been going to Trone 75-25.  And Montgomery County won't start counting it's portion of them until Saturday.

https://www.fredericknewspost.com/news/continuing_coverage/election_coverage/6th-district-rematch-between-trone-and-parrott-still-undecided/article_75c2c571-0e5c-5e39-8efd-72823f414073.html

THANK YOU!

[soundchaser]

Smh these Republicans always find votes at the last minute to put them ahead. Time to storm the Capitol I guess.

[riceowl]

Well I trusted you guys in a lapse of judgement (trust but verify), but in MD-06 the Pub Parrot is ahead and the splits absent a somewhat material variation between counted and uncounted votes (the uncounted votes per the county splits also favor Parrot a bit, and the notion it was the opposite seems to be an urban legend, or at least an Atlas legend), so MD-06 moves in the Torie universe moves from likely Dem to lean Pub. So the Torie projection moves from 219.5 to 220.25.

I am using NYT for called races. That caused a removal of MT-01 and insertion of AZ-02.

Hey tori spelling, in which direction should i interpret this chart?

[It’s so Joever]

That's it, next time I go through Pueblo County I will sh**t on the dirt.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Someone tell me if I’m wrong on any of this because the constant bombardment of info

CO-3 seemed D and now appears R
CO-8 seemed D and now appears tilt R?
MD-6 seemed D and now appears R
CA-41 seemed R and could go D….

Which puts the house either 100% R or R with 1 more GOP win?

The Senate races appear to being going D at least in AZ and probably NV

Governors ….Arizona is a tossup and Nevada is a Likely R, Oregon is obviously D despite no call.

NO, but can go either way
NO
NO
Kinda of

Can you just not complain how everything is bad until we get a clearer picture?

Where is the complaint?….

Okay, I apologize for being so harsh, it's just that your earlier posts here about how bad things are going made me write this. Forgive me, please. Actually, there's no telling who will win the House, I'd say 50/50, so we'll see

It honestly feels miraculous that this didn't happen in 2020 and we knew who won the House in just the first few days.
Meanwhile, this time...

[Spectator]

So now the path is probably retaining OR-05 and flipping WA-03, CA-22, CA-27 and one of CA-40/41

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

California is considerably more R than it "should" be given the national environment.  Newsom is only up 57/43 currently.  Is this a mirage or another NY situation?  Note that the post-election updates today and yesterday have pushed the state more R so far.

Given all of the remaining ballots, plus whatever comes in by Monday, I’d lean mirage.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Here's a local source for MD-06.  It's count so far matches the NYT.  Is says there are 33k uncounted mail ballots, which have thus far been going to Trone 75-25.  And Montgomery County won't start counting it's portion of them until Saturday.

https://www.fredericknewspost.com/news/continuing_coverage/election_coverage/6th-district-rematch-between-trone-and-parrott-still-undecided/article_75c2c571-0e5c-5e39-8efd-72823f414073.html

What is the margin for Parrot right now, in votes already counted?

Parrott is winning by about 4500.  It sounds like Trone should gain 15k-20k from the outstanding mail vote, and could win by as much as 5%.

[Dani Rose]

If the GOP doesn't collectively dropkick Boebert the way they did to Cawthorn, who can we run in 2024? I hate to say it, but I suspect we might need a blue dog here.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's a local source for MD-06.  It's count so far matches the NYT.  Is says there are 33k uncounted mail ballots, which have thus far been going to Trone 75-25.  And Montgomery County won't start counting it's portion of them until Saturday.

https://www.fredericknewspost.com/news/continuing_coverage/election_coverage/6th-district-rematch-between-trone-and-parrott-still-undecided/article_75c2c571-0e5c-5e39-8efd-72823f414073.html

What is the margin for Parrot right now, in votes already counted?

Parrot is winning by about 4500.  It sounds like Trone should gain 15k-20k from the outstanding mail vote, and could win by as much as 5%.

Oh. Ok.  That's not good of a cushion at all for Parrot.

[Tekken_Guy]

This is likely Boebert’s final term. If the party comes down hard on her like they did on Cawthorn she’ll lose her primary.

[Spectator]

If the GOP doesn't collectively dropkick Boebert the way they did to Cawthorn, who can we run in 2024? I hate to say it, but I suspect we might need a blue dog here.

Donald Valdez was the best on paper option, he just couldn’t raise money.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

If the GOP doesn't collectively dropkick Boebert the way they did to Cawthorn, who can we run in 2024? I hate to say it, but I suspect we might need a blue dog here.

That sassy gay moderate who had that campaign ad of poop falling from the sky

[Minnesota Mike]

No source for ballots outstanding in MD-06 being primarily mail.

MD-06: Mail ballots returned 47,940

https://elections.maryland.gov/press_room/2022_stats/GG22/Absentees%20Sent%20and%20Returned%20by%20Congressional.pdf

Mail Ballots counted 14,719

https://elections.maryland.gov/elections/2022/general_results/gen_results_2022_5.html

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/thorongil16/status/1590850740137955329https://twitter.com/galenmetzger1/status/1590851671965728768https://twitter.com/thorongil16/status/1590852046202490880

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

No source for ballots outstanding in MD-06 being primarily mail.

MD-06: Mail ballots returned 47,940

https://elections.maryland.gov/press_room/2022_stats/GG22/Absentees%20Sent%20and%20Returned%20by%20Congressional.pdf

Mail Ballots counted 14,719

https://elections.maryland.gov/elections/2022/general_results/gen_results_2022_5.html

If Parrot's margin survives and he wins this race, then I will adopt an R-CA avatar for seven days leading up to Thanksgiving.

[Kamala's side hoe]

California is considerably more R than it "should" be given the national environment.  Newsom is only up 57/43 currently.  Is this a mirage or another NY situation?  Note that the post-election updates today and yesterday have pushed the state more R so far.

Hard to say, because 1. LA County is huge and 2. it doesn't really have any easy comp counties. When I made the map the two trends that popped out is that counties that were 1. more progressive and 2. in close proximity to the Bay Area trended harder toward Dahle (probably because Larry Elder scared them). LA is probably more progressive than its surrounding counties, but it is definitely not more progressive than Humboldt or Santa Cruz. But yeah, I definitely expect the county to shift at least 2 or 3 points leftward from current results when all is said and done.

I might be overfitting the progressiveness thing based on Humboldt, less confident on that one than the Bay Area one. It also might just be that bigger metros are shifting harder toward Dahle from the recall.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Newsom underperforms the recall, this is something I’ve discussed with Abdullah. With COVID receding there’s less of a pro-incumbent environment this year.

But given the insane R margins/D underperformance in the uncalled SoCal House seats with <60% of the vote in, I sure hope it’s an R mirage and not a mini-NY. Steel and Garcia shouldn’t win reelection with anywhere close to double-digit margins… (Young Kim, maybe- her district is the most R and she’s been the most unfairly slighted by the Leipverse meme economy)

[John Dule]

This is likely Boebert’s final term. If the party comes down hard on her like they did on Cawthorn she’ll lose her primary.

But if she's the seat that puts them at 218, will they have the political capital to risk alienating her? She could run to MTG and her fellow crazies for support and stall everything, even the leadership selection.

[Torie]

The slings and arrows and yes, a smidgen of actual data, caused a revision, signifying not much as to even the most nerdish of them all.

[new_patomic]

Looks like Patriots are going to come up just short

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Looks like Patriots are going to come up just short

They would've won without that stupid-ass pass interference call.  

The reciever tripped!!