Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Crumpets]

RE: NV - that article about NV Latinos seems prescient. A lot of them were ambivalent about Masto or didn't know much about her. But they *did not* like Laxalt.

#Analysis: Laxalt is of Basque extraction, and this did not play well with people of Hispanic heritage who are sympathetic to their cousins in Spain in their conflict with the ETA.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/annalynnfrey/status/1590832531766902784

[Holmes]

CO-03 will come down to Pueblo county just like we always thought.

[Coldstream]

Genuine good faith question, why are so many races outstanding over a day after the polls closed? I don’t understand how it can take this long - in the UK I’ve never heard of an election lasting longer than a day to count. It can’t be good for the country to continue to have this lack of clarity after every election, I’d assumed 2020 was a one off due to covid.

[oldtimer]

Bush 04:50
REP 06: 44

Obama 08:53
DEM 10: 45

Obama 12:51
DEM 14: 46

These are the obvious exceptions. 2006 and 2010 are obvious, but what happened in 2014?

The never ending War in the Middle East and the economy still not being totally fixed.
Also I.S.I.S was something out of a G.I. Joe cartoon "A vast terrorist organization with a catchy Acronym that aims for World Domination".

[soundchaser]

CO-03 will come down to Pueblo county just like we always thought.

“Always thought” is a hell of a thing considering conventional wisdom on this race two days ago.

[wbrocks67]

CNN: At least 120K votes still to be counted in Nevada

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1590832229650903040/photo/1

[Aurelius]

I made a map comparing 2021 CA-GOV recall results to 2022 CA-GOV results so far. This can help predict which way future vote dumps will lean in particular counties. If a country is drastically different on this map than similar counties, then it will probably converge to them as more votes come in. For example, there is probably some heavily Dem outstanding vote in Fresno and some heavily GOP outstanding vote in San Luis Obispo.

[wbrocks67]

CNN: At least 120K votes still to be counted in Nevada

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1590832229650903040/photo/1

Given a majority of these are likely Clark/Washoe, Sisolak may actually eke this out.

[Lief 🗽]

Greenlee County appears to be done and Masters and Lake are both significantly underperforming Trump 2020.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Genuine good faith question, why are so many races outstanding over a day after the polls closed? I don’t understand how it can take this long - in the UK I’ve never heard of an election lasting longer than a day to count. It can’t be good for the country to continue to have this lack of clarity after every election, I’d assumed 2020 was a one off due to covid.

Vote by mail plus our ballots are much longer (candidates for multiple offices and ballot measures).

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/TWLadyGrey/status/1590830104351055893

[Pollster]

Hindsight is always 20/20, but it's starting to become apparent that of all the hard electoral metrics we got (specials, Nov '21, CA recall, CA and WA primary, early voting to some extent) the only ones that didn't foreshadow this climate was VA and NJ, and a South Texas special election that national Democrats didn't spend in.

[Sestak]

I made a map comparing 2021 CA-GOV recall results to 2022 CA-GOV results so far. This can help predict which way future vote dumps will lean in particular counties. If a country is drastically different on this map than similar counties, then it will probably converge to them as more votes come in. For example, there is probably some heavily Dem outstanding vote in Fresno and some heavily GOP outstanding vote in San Luis Obispo.

So, uhhhh…this doesn’t portend anything remotely good for Mike Garcia, does it?

[Utah Neolib]

Do we know where CO-8 is going?

[Biden 2024]

Greenlee County appears to be done and Masters and Lake are both significantly underperforming Trump 2020.

Dem. sweep in Arizona, well past time to call AZ-Sen and SOS at the very least.

[wbrocks67]

Hindsight is always 20/20, but it's starting to become apparent that of all the hard electoral metrics we got (specials, Nov '21, CA recall, CA and WA primary, early voting to some extent) the only ones that didn't foreshadow this climate was VA and NJ, and a South Texas special election that national Democrats didn't spend in.

Those were all pre-Dobbs too

[wbrocks67]

Looks like tonights batch WILL be VBM, not election day dropoffs. There apparently was ~60K VBM left after last nights drop.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1590829180748705793

[philly09]

I made a map comparing 2021 CA-GOV recall results to 2022 CA-GOV results so far. This can help predict which way future vote dumps will lean in particular counties. If a country is drastically different on this map than similar counties, then it will probably converge to them as more votes come in. For example, there is probably some heavily Dem outstanding vote in Fresno and some heavily GOP outstanding vote in San Luis Obispo.

So, uhhhh…this doesn’t portend anything remotely good for Mike Garcia, does it?

Garcia declared victory, but nobody has called the race yet.

[emailking]

It begins:

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1590812263434268673

Praying so hard she loses.

[Aurelius]

I made a map comparing 2021 CA-GOV recall results to 2022 CA-GOV results so far. This can help predict which way future vote dumps will lean in particular counties. If a country is drastically different on this map than similar counties, then it will probably converge to them as more votes come in. For example, there is probably some heavily Dem outstanding vote in Fresno and some heavily GOP outstanding vote in San Luis Obispo.

So, uhhhh…this doesn’t portend anything remotely good for Mike Garcia, does it?

Hard to say, because 1. LA County is huge and 2. it doesn't really have any easy comp counties. When I made the map the two trends that popped out is that counties that were 1. more progressive and 2. in close proximity to the Bay Area trended harder toward Dahle (probably because Larry Elder scared them). LA is probably more progressive than its surrounding counties, but it is definitely not more progressive than Humboldt or Santa Cruz. But yeah, I definitely expect the county to shift at least 2 or 3 points leftward from current results when all is said and done.

I might be overfitting the progressiveness thing based on Humboldt, less confident on that one than the Bay Area one. It also might just be that bigger metros are shifting harder toward Dahle from the recall.

[wbrocks67]

Philly drops another 10K votes. Fetterman wins 93% of them.

Statewide lead increases to +4.2% (50.9-46.7)

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think both the AZ-06 and CO-08 were premature.

Also, i understand why they called CA-40 for Kim, she seems like a heavy favorite, but it seems they just randomly decided in the middle of the day they had enough to call it when nothing knew came in. With every remotely competitive CA race we need to wait.

[MillennialModerate]

Do we know where CO-8 is going?

Wtf I thought the R conceded

[South Dakota Democrat]

Some of you were definitely not around for Florida 2000 and think concessions mean more than they do...