Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[wbrocks67]

FWIW, counting is >95% in 6 red Nevada counties. Laxalt underperforming Trump in 4 of them.

[Sestak]

Hard to say, because 1. LA County is huge and 2. it doesn't really have any easy comp counties. When I made the map the two trends that popped out is that counties that were 1. more progressive and 2. in close proximity to the Bay Area trended harder toward Dahle (probably because Larry Elder scared them). LA is probably more progressive than its surrounding counties, but it is definitely not more progressive than Humboldt or Santa Cruz. But yeah, I definitely expect the county to shift at least 2 or 3 points leftward from current results when all is said and done.

I might be overfitting the progressiveness thing based on Humboldt, less confident on that one than the Bay Area one. It also might just be that bigger metros are shifting harder toward Dahle from the recall.

Perhaps, but there’s an alternate line of reasoning that goes “more urban/Dem => more mail => more Dem mail vote left to count => Dahle will have more of a mirage right now”.

As long as none of those areas are fully in I don’t think there’s much point in that kind of a comparison.

[skbl17]

https://twitter.com/annalynnfrey/status/1590837187503099907

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/annalynnfrey/status/1590837187503099907

I'm hoping after Pueblo finishes there aren't any other major suprises. I just want this rolelr coaster to be over win or lose.

[😥]

https://twitter.com/HWLavelleMaps/status/1590837793487745024?t=02ugy86AFGo_4Pgei...

I think Engel actually might pull this off. At least it looks more likely with each update. But we have to wait for Pima

[wbrocks67]

Some of you were definitely not around for Florida 2000 and think concessions mean more than they do...

Didn't Kirkmeyer concede before the DDHQ call?

Depends on what's out in CO-08 and if it's getting bluer or redder from here on out. The most vote out appears to be from Adams County, which is a blue area. But we'll see I guess

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/HWLavelleMaps/status/1590837793487745024?t=02ugy86AFGo_4Pgei...

I think Engel actually might pull this off. At least it looks more likely with each update. But we have to wait for Pima

Another race that national Dems appeared to triage that has become unexpectedly close...

Looks like both national Dems and Reps had some misgivings in spending this year

[John Dule]

Some of you were definitely not around for Florida 2000 and think concessions mean more than they do...

If a Republican election denier is conceding, we can reasonably conclude that based on their internals they don't see a path. Nobody's saying it has legal consequences or makes it a done deal. It is, however, extremely relevant in making predictions.

Don't be so DeSanctimonious.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Personally, CA-41 is my CO-3. I'll be way more disappointed if Calvert ends up squeaking by

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/HWLavelleMaps/status/1590837793487745024?t=02ugy86AFGo_4Pgei...

I think Engel actually might pull this off. At least it looks more likely with each update. But we have to wait for Pima

What I'm hopeful of is that the Tucson suburbs she takes in are high turnout. The thing is a few seem to have at least a little bit of downballot lag, so if she's going to underperform 2020 anywhere in the district it'll be Pima.

Her margin in Pima right now is + 7, which likely means we're not going to see that erode much with further drops and if anything possibly grow (Biden won the Pima portion by almost 9). Ciscomani's overperformance of Trump in Pinal with 82% of the vote in is a good sign for him if, and big if, it holds.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also AZ-01 is on the table, but what's hard is it's all in Maricopa so we literally won't be able to tell until somebody starts to pull away and basically all the votes are in. It may be one of the last House races to be called even if one side ends up winning by a good 2 or 3%.

[Spectator]

Personally, CA-41 is my CO-3. I'll be way more disappointed if Calvert ends up squeaking by

Calvert probably loses in the next cycle or two anyway with the way that seat is trending. That’s if he doesn’t lose this year.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Are the CA House races call-able at all? Given how many votes need to be counted?

[pppolitics]

Greenlee County appears to be done and Masters and Lake are both significantly underperforming Trump 2020.

Dem. sweep in Arizona, well past time to call AZ-Sen and SOS at the very least.

Sorry to rain on the parade, but I wouldn't jump to a conclusion based on a single county.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also win or lose, rmbr that both the primary and mail numbers were pretty strong for Dems in CA-41, especially compared to other nearby districts. If it does flip, that may have sort of been an early indicator. IIRC, the mail vote was about D+8 by regristation in the end so if all the eday vote is truly in, Calvert is in big trouble

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Side note: Not sure why folks seem convinced Garcia is favored, that race is probably the biggest tossup of the CA seats right now.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

CNN: At least 120K votes still to be counted in Nevada

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1590832229650903040/photo/1

Given a majority of these are likely Clark/Washoe, Sisolak may actually eke this out.

That's impressive.

[wbrocks67]

Are the CA House races call-able at all? Given how many votes need to be counted?

Don't think so, so odd that DDHQ called Kim and Garcia took a victory lap. Kim seems likely to pull it off since her margin is even higher than Garcia's, but given that there was like 1M votes left to count in LA County as of last night, Garcia should not have done that...

[ProgressiveModerate]

I would say at the moment, Dems have a clear advantage in CA-41 assuming the information we have is accurate which would be huge.

I'm still worried about CO-08 though. No one has provided me a clear reason why Cravero is safe with the outstanding ballots cause only slightly more of the vote is out in Adams than Weld and the last few drops from both counties have been decent for Kirkmeyer.

[Eraserhead]

Philly drops another 10K votes. Fetterman wins 93% of them.

Statewide lead increases to +4.2% (50.9-46.7)

But Conor Lamb something something!

[Oryxslayer]

Are the CA House races call-able at all? Given how many votes need to be counted?

You could call all the expected ones probably that NYT hasn't: 6, 21, 26, 35, 38, and 46. The 10 marginals and the 2 uncalled DvDs need to wait a while, even CA-40 which some people seem to have jumped the gun on.

[Holmes]

Where is the Pueblo dump

[Spectator]

Side note: Not sure why folks seem convinced Garcia is favored, that race is probably the biggest tossup of the CA seats right now.

Yeah, I think it’s pretty clear LA County has a huge R bias right now, same with the Central Valley. Expecting CA-27 to come down to the wire and for CA-22 to narrowly flip.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Are the CA House races call-able at all? Given how many votes need to be counted?

You could call all the expected ones probably that NYT hasn't: 6, 21, 26, 35, 38, and 46. The 10 marginals and the 2 uncalled DvDs need to wait a while, even CA-40 which some people seem to have jumped the gun on.

NYT should tally the D v D districts for Dems without technically calling them. It makes thing annoying, especially since we may not know for a while.

[GALeftist]

Philly drops another 10K votes. Fetterman wins 93% of them.

Statewide lead increases to +4.2% (50.9-46.7)

Oz SEPA overperformance incoming bro just trust