Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Also win or lose, rmbr that both the primary and mail numbers were pretty strong for Dems in CA-41, especially compared to other nearby districts. If it does flip, that may have sort of been an early indicator. IIRC, the mail vote was about D+8 by regristation in the end so if all the eday vote is truly in, Calvert is in big trouble

Reminds me of 2016 when the primary showed Issa in more trouble than we thought. Although the CA-41 didn't get nearly as much of a spotlight compared to that race or the other competitive SoCal seats this cycle.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

So 290k mail in ballots are left in Maricopa County. That has to be good news for Kelly and Hobbs.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Side note: Not sure why folks seem convinced Garcia is favored, that race is probably the biggest tossup of the CA seats right now.

Me neither.

[Oryxslayer]

Are the CA House races call-able at all? Given how many votes need to be counted?

Don't think so, so odd that DDHQ called Kim and Garcia took a victory lap. Kim seems likely to pull it off since her margin is even higher than Garcia's, but given that there was like 1M votes left to count in LA County as of last night, Garcia should not have done that...

Come on, we all know Garcia did that to cast doubt on the process. The nations attention is going to be on the CA marginals, and he could lose cause of "discovered" mail votes, so better prime his MAGA friends now.

Side note: Not sure why folks seem convinced Garcia is favored, that race is probably the biggest tossup of the CA seats right now.

Me neither.

Same. Look at the other LA seats and the map on the other page, LA seems like the county gonna blue-shift the hardest. And reminder that Garcia has the Bluest of the GOP SoCal marginals, no matter what dataset you know.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1590841831297728512

[Lief 🗽]

Maricopa elections guy now holding a press conference and DESTROYING Florida

[wbrocks67]

#IBelieve

https://twitter.com/cityafreaks/status/1590842469801132040

[MillennialModerate]

Greenlee County appears to be done and Masters and Lake are both significantly underperforming Trump 2020.

Dem. sweep in Arizona, well past time to call AZ-Sen and SOS at the very least.

Sorry to rain on the parade, but I wouldn't jump to a conclusion based on a single county.

I feel good *ducks* about the Senate and especially SOS.

I was convinced Governors race was going Lake *Ducks again* but Lake going on TV and crying foul has made me wonder

[wbrocks67]

I would say at the moment, Dems have a clear advantage in CA-41 assuming the information we have is accurate which would be huge.

I'm still worried about CO-08 though. No one has provided me a clear reason why Cravero is safe with the outstanding ballots cause only slightly more of the vote is out in Adams than Weld and the last few drops from both counties have been decent for Kirkmeyer.

Has there been much counted in Adams? I feel like it's been stuck at 85% forever...

[Torie]

Well I trusted you guys in a lapse of judgement (trust but verify), but in MD-06 the Pub Parrot is ahead and the splits absent a somewhat material variation between counted and uncounted votes (the uncounted votes per the county splits also favor Parrot a bit, and the notion it was the opposite seems to be an urban legend, or at least an Atlas legend), so MD-06 moves in the Torie universe moves from likely Dem to lean Pub. So the Torie projection moves from 219.5 to 220.25.

I am using NYT for called races. That caused a removal of MT-01 and insertion of AZ-02.

[walleye26]

When can we expect the next Nevada dump?

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1590841831297728512

It's Joever

[South Dakota Democrat]

Where is the Pueblo dump

Pueblo is constipated.

[Badger]

In CNN's exit polls, Oz not being from Pennsylvania turns out of be a bigger issue than Fetterman having a stroke

I'm shocked voters don't like carpetbaggers.

I actually sort of am. There's a lot of candidates who are clear carpet baggers whom no one cared about. Romney could have been felt that way in either Massachusetts or utah. Then of course we have Scott Brown running in New hampshire.

[pppolitics]

#IBelieve

https://twitter.com/cityafreaks/status/1590842469801132040

What's the other county?

It's only showing Greenlee here:

https://apps.arizona.vote/info/bps/2022-general-election/33/0

[GALeftist]

Well I trusted you guys in a lapse of judgement (trust but verify), but in MD-06 the Pub Parrot is ahead and the splits absent a somewhat material variation between counted and uncounted votes (the uncounted votes per the county splits also favor Parrot a bit, and the notion it was the opposite seems to be an urban legend, or at least an Atlas legend), so MD-06 moves in the Torie universe moves from likely Dem to lean Pub.

IIRC remaining vote is mail. If true Trone should be fine with that much left imo

[John Dule]

RELEASE THE PUEBLO DUMP AND THERE WILL BE AN END TO THE PAIN

[ProgressiveModerate]

Well I trusted you guys in a lapse of judgement (trust but verify), but in MD-06 the Pub Parrot is ahead and the splits absent a somewhat material variation between counted and uncounted votes (the uncounted votes per the county splits also favor Parrot a bit, and the notion it was the opposite seems to be an urban legend, or at least an Atlas legend), so MD-06 moves in the Torie universe moves from likely Dem to lean Pub. So the Torie projection moves from 219.5 to 220.25.

Where are you seeing this info btw. I'm surprised how remarkably quiet people have been about MD-06.

If Dems lose it, another big L considering it's a Biden + 10 seat in the DC area.

[GALeftist]

In CNN's exit polls, Oz not being from Pennsylvania turns out of be a bigger issue than Fetterman having a stroke

I'm shocked voters don't like carpetbaggers.

I actually sort of am. There's a lot of candidates who are clear carpet baggers whom no one cared about. Romney could have been felt that way in either Massachusetts or utah. Then of course we have Scott Brown running in New hampshire.

To some degree this is probably downstream of people's preexisting vote intentions (i.e. someone first decides they're voting Fetterman for whatever reason, then decides that the stroke isn't an issue and the Jersey thing is as a consequence of that)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/maricopacounty/status/1590830383222095873

[It’s so Joever]

Does ANYONE here actually have any source on what type of ballots are outstanding in MD-06?

[LimoLiberal]

FYI Heather Mizeur (Dem running against Andy Harris in MD-01) has outperformed Biden's margin by 9 and 10 points in the two counties that are fully in/have reported mail ballots. It was a Trump +15 seat - she's probably going to lose by mid-single digits. Inverse Long Island stuff

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Side note: Not sure why folks seem convinced Garcia is favored, that race is probably the biggest tossup of the CA seats right now.

Me neither.

Same. Look at the other LA seats and the map on the other page, LA seems like the county gonna blue-shift the hardest. And reminder that Garcia has the Bluest of the GOP SoCal marginals, no matter what dataset you know.

I guess I, though I dislike doing this automatically, distrust Garcia's actions here. Maybe he knows all this, so he needs a victimhood narrative.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Frisch just netted about 160 votes but not from Pueblo, not sure from where

[MillennialModerate]

Someone tell me if I’m wrong on any of this because the constant bombardment of info

CO-3 seemed D and now appears R
CO-8 seemed D and now appears tilt R?
MD-6 seemed D and now appears R
CA-41 seemed R and could go D….

Which puts the house either 100% R or R with 1 more GOP win?

The Senate races appear to being going D at least in AZ and probably NV

Governors ….Arizona is a tossup and Nevada is a Likely R, Oregon is obviously D despite no call.