Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[ProgressiveModerate]

Frisch just netted about 160 votes but not from Pueblo, not sure from where

Pitkin? They said they had 100+ votes left

La Plata

https://twitter.com/GalenMetzger1/status/1590846625043578885?s=20&t=sE66V2sK...

It seems like there's been several small unexpected dumps over the last 2 days in CO-03, so honestly, this may be decided by another unexpected batch.

[MillennialModerate]

Someone tell me if I’m wrong on any of this because the constant bombardment of info

CO-3 seemed D and now appears R
CO-8 seemed D and now appears tilt R?
MD-6 seemed D and now appears R
CA-41 seemed R and could go D….

Which puts the house either 100% R or R with 1 more GOP win?

The Senate races appear to being going D at least in AZ and probably NV

Governors ….Arizona is a tossup and Nevada is a Likely R, Oregon is obviously D despite no call.

NO, but can go either way
NO
NO
Kinda of

Can you just not complain how everything is bad until we get a clearer picture?

Where is the complaint?….

[Torie]

Well I trusted you guys in a lapse of judgement (trust but verify), but in MD-06 the Pub Parrot is ahead and the splits absent a somewhat material variation between counted and uncounted votes (the uncounted votes per the county splits also favor Parrot a bit, and the notion it was the opposite seems to be an urban legend, or at least an Atlas legend), so MD-06 moves in the Torie universe moves from likely Dem to lean Pub. So the Torie projection moves from 219.5 to 220.25.

Where are you seeing this info btw. I'm surprised how remarkably quiet people have been about MD-06.

If Dems lose it, another big L considering it's a Biden + 10 seat in the DC area.

I look at CNN for the county splits and percentage of vote counted.

But shouldn't you use a breakdown of the type of votes outstanding when you make your projections?

I have a dream. If Parrot gets in the House, by unanimous consent, Parrot should be allowed to give his pet parrot his vote by proxy, so Parrot via his pet parrot can vote yeah or nay. Yeah. Catch it! Let's get back to being human again.

[gf20202]

Is there any kind of schedule for updates on the competitive races today?

In AZ-GOV, Marciopa drop is expected to be around 8 pm MST/7 PST, won't be that telling given these still won't be the drop box votes there.

In NV-SEN, Sizable Clark dump coming between 4 to 8 PM PST.

[7,052,770]

Well I trusted you guys in a lapse of judgement (trust but verify), but in MD-06 the Pub Parrot is ahead and the splits absent a somewhat material variation between counted and uncounted votes (the uncounted votes per the county splits also favor Parrot a bit, and the notion it was the opposite seems to be an urban legend, or at least an Atlas legend), so MD-06 moves in the Torie universe moves from likely Dem to lean Pub. So the Torie projection moves from 219.5 to 220.25.

Where are you seeing this info btw. I'm surprised how remarkably quiet people have been about MD-06.

If Dems lose it, another big L considering it's a Biden + 10 seat in the DC area.

I look at CNN for the county splits and percentage of vote counted.

But shouldn't you use a breakdown of the type of votes outstanding when you make your projections?

Sure if there is any info in the public square that I don't know, and some other Atlasian does.
Do you have some info you want to share to enlighten all of Atlasia, and perhaps cause great rejoicing, or at least declare that it is beer time?

?? I don't have any inside knowledge, just what's been widely reported and discussed here and by the "experts" on Twitter

[ProgressiveModerate]

Well I trusted you guys in a lapse of judgement (trust but verify), but in MD-06 the Pub Parrot is ahead and the splits absent a somewhat material variation between counted and uncounted votes (the uncounted votes per the county splits also favor Parrot a bit, and the notion it was the opposite seems to be an urban legend, or at least an Atlas legend), so MD-06 moves in the Torie universe moves from likely Dem to lean Pub. So the Torie projection moves from 219.5 to 220.25.

Where are you seeing this info btw. I'm surprised how remarkably quiet people have been about MD-06.

If Dems lose it, another big L considering it's a Biden + 10 seat in the DC area.

I look at CNN for the county splits and percentage of vote counted.

But shouldn't you use a breakdown of the type of votes outstanding when you make your projections?

Yes those are the current results but all the outstanding vote is probably extremely favorable to Trone.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Is there any kind of schedule for updates on the competitive races today?

Riverside County (CA-41) should be doing another vote dump around 6 PM PST

[Skill and Chance]

California is considerably more R than it "should" be given the national environment.  Newsom is only up 57/43 currently.  Is this a mirage or another NY situation?  Note that the post-election updates today and yesterday have pushed the state more R so far.

[It’s so Joever]

No source for ballots outstanding in MD-06 being primarily mail.

[Zache]

https://twitter.com/dcwoodruff/status/1590848780303155203

Is it it over for Frisch?

[Crumpets]

For anyone who has tracked the 538 model, here's where we currently stand on their popular vote vs. house majority graph. Actually not as much of an outlier as I would have expected.

[Spectator]

Well I trusted you guys in a lapse of judgement (trust but verify), but in MD-06 the Pub Parrot is ahead and the splits absent a somewhat material variation between counted and uncounted votes (the uncounted votes per the county splits also favor Parrot a bit, and the notion it was the opposite seems to be an urban legend, or at least an Atlas legend), so MD-06 moves in the Torie universe moves from likely Dem to lean Pub. So the Torie projection moves from 219.5 to 220.25.

Where are you seeing this info btw. I'm surprised how remarkably quiet people have been about MD-06.

If Dems lose it, another big L considering it's a Biden + 10 seat in the DC area.

I look at CNN for the county splits and percentage of vote counted.

But shouldn't you use a breakdown of the type of votes outstanding when you make your projections?

Unless for whatever reason Frederick County has 25k less votes in 2022 than in 2018, the mail in ballots will make Frederick a county solidly blue.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1590849275214565376?cxt=HHwWgMDQxZa_6pMsA...

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/dcwoodruff/status/1590848780303155203

Is it it over for Frisch?

RIP Frisch.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1590849275214565376?cxt=HHwWgMDQxZa_6pMsA...

Oh god. Are we sure those aren't e-day votes cause they were supposedly mail vote.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/dcwoodruff/status/1590848780303155203

Is it it over for Frisch?

It was fun while it lasted.

[Holmes]

Maybe Frisch can try again in two years, work the district a bit more in that time. 2024 might be a better environment for Dems anyway.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1590849275214565376?cxt=HHwWgMDQxZa_6pMsA...

Oh god. Are we sure those aren't e-day votes cause they were supposedly mail vote.

Remember, Colorado is a universal mail state.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Well I trusted you guys in a lapse of judgement (trust but verify), but in MD-06 the Pub Parrot is ahead and the splits absent a somewhat material variation between counted and uncounted votes (the uncounted votes per the county splits also favor Parrot a bit, and the notion it was the opposite seems to be an urban legend, or at least an Atlas legend), so MD-06 moves in the Torie universe moves from likely Dem to lean Pub. So the Torie projection moves from 219.5 to 220.25.

Where are you seeing this info btw. I'm surprised how remarkably quiet people have been about MD-06.

If Dems lose it, another big L considering it's a Biden + 10 seat in the DC area.

I look at CNN for the county splits and percentage of vote counted.

But shouldn't you use a breakdown of the type of votes outstanding when you make your projections?

Unless for whatever reason Frederick County has 25k less votes in 2022 than in 2018, the mail in ballots will make Frederick a county solidly blue.

MD-06 is a district that repeatedly generates close calls, but in the end, Ds almost always win out at the very least.

[Spectator]

Entertaining while it lasted. A well funded Donald Valdez probably would’ve flipped the seat, but alas.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Here's a local source for MD-06.  It's count so far matches the NYT.  Is says there are 33k uncounted mail ballots, which have thus far been going to Trone 75-25.  And Montgomery County won't start counting it's portion of them until Saturday.

https://www.fredericknewspost.com/news/continuing_coverage/election_coverage/6th-district-rematch-between-trone-and-parrott-still-undecided/article_75c2c571-0e5c-5e39-8efd-72823f414073.html

[new_patomic]

Oof that stings

[SnowLabrador]

Entertaining while it lasted. A well funded Donald Valdez probably would’ve flipped the seat, but alas.

Oh well. Maybe we'll have a chance at her seat again in 2024.

[Torie]

Well I trusted you guys in a lapse of judgement (trust but verify), but in MD-06 the Pub Parrot is ahead and the splits absent a somewhat material variation between counted and uncounted votes (the uncounted votes per the county splits also favor Parrot a bit, and the notion it was the opposite seems to be an urban legend, or at least an Atlas legend), so MD-06 moves in the Torie universe moves from likely Dem to lean Pub. So the Torie projection moves from 219.5 to 220.25.

Where are you seeing this info btw. I'm surprised how remarkably quiet people have been about MD-06.

If Dems lose it, another big L considering it's a Biden + 10 seat in the DC area.

I look at CNN for the county splits and percentage of vote counted.

But shouldn't you use a breakdown of the type of votes outstanding when you make your projections?

Yes those are the current results but all the outstanding vote is probably extremely favorable to Trone.

You all keep telling me that as an assertion of fact, but perhaps a linky poo perhaps to enlighten the not always quick on the switch senior citizen?

[😥]

Someone tell me if I’m wrong on any of this because the constant bombardment of info

CO-3 seemed D and now appears R
CO-8 seemed D and now appears tilt R?
MD-6 seemed D and now appears R
CA-41 seemed R and could go D….

Which puts the house either 100% R or R with 1 more GOP win?

The Senate races appear to being going D at least in AZ and probably NV

Governors ….Arizona is a tossup and Nevada is a Likely R, Oregon is obviously D despite no call.

NO, but can go either way
NO
NO
Kinda of

Can you just not complain how everything is bad until we get a clearer picture?

Where is the complaint?….

Okay, I apologize for being so harsh, it's just that your earlier posts here about how bad things are going made me write this. Forgive me, please. Actually, there's no telling who will win the House, I'd say 50/50, so we'll see