Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Crumpets]

If they're sticking to their usual schedule, there should be a new batch of ballots coming in in Washington in a few minutes.

[Dani Rose]

The fact that the race was even close at all should be a big wake up call to Lauren boebert

Her constituents were clearly not impressed by her antics and if I was her I would tone it down going forward.

It's one thing to be a very passionate conservative who is willing to fight with the Dems when it comes to their policies, its another thing entirely to behave, the way Lauren boebert has since she has been in office.

Evidently she's just been hurling insults at her opponent and the people voting against her since the results started pouring in, so uh, about that.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Someone tell me if I’m wrong on any of this because the constant bombardment of info

CO-3 seemed D and now appears R
CO-8 seemed D and now appears tilt R?
MD-6 seemed D and now appears R
CA-41 seemed R and could go D….

Which puts the house either 100% R or R with 1 more GOP win?

The Senate races appear to being going D at least in AZ and probably NV

Governors ….Arizona is a tossup and Nevada is a Likely R, Oregon is obviously D despite no call.

NO, but can go either way
NO
NO
Kinda of

Can you just not complain how everything is bad until we get a clearer picture?

Where is the complaint?….

Okay, I apologize for being so harsh, it's just that your earlier posts here about how bad things are going made me write this. Forgive me, please. Actually, there's no telling who will win the House, I'd say 50/50, so we'll see

Apology accepted.

Everyone saying it’s a jump ball - was that factoring in CO-03 as a win or loss

CO-03 as a win.  At this point it's not a jump ball, but (if we can switch sports) the Democrats are in the position of a team that's down a touchdown with 5 minutes left.  Favored?  No.  Doable?  Yes.

Yeah.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The fact that the race was even close at all should be a big wake up call to Lauren boebert

Her constituents were clearly not impressed by her antics and if I was her I would tone it down going forward.

It's one thing to be a very passionate conservative who is willing to fight with the Dems when it comes to their policies, its another thing entirely to behave, the way Lauren boebert has since she has been in office.

 

That's something I've been wondering too.  Will she take the lesson to heart and moderate her tone (assuming she prevails), or will she double down on the craziness?

[LimoLiberal]

BLUE WAVE ALERT IN ARIZONA

Gila County is done save for ~300 votes, which might shift margins ~1 point more Republican

Masters won it 62-36
Lake won it 66-34

Trump won it in 2020 66-32

Kelly outperformed Biden's margin by 8 points, Hobbs by 2 points.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The fact that the race was even close at all should be a big wake up call to Lauren boebert

Her constituents were clearly not impressed by her antics and if I was her I would tone it down going forward.

It's one thing to be a very passionate conservative who is willing to fight with the Dems when it comes to their policies, its another thing entirely to behave, the way Lauren boebert has since she has been in office.

Evidently she's just been hurling insults at her opponent and the people voting against her since the results started pouring in, so uh, about that.

I see Boebert is emulating the path of Marilyn Musgrave, likely to its eventual conclusion.

[Dani Rose]

The fact that the race was even close at all should be a big wake up call to Lauren boebert

Her constituents were clearly not impressed by her antics and if I was her I would tone it down going forward.

It's one thing to be a very passionate conservative who is willing to fight with the Dems when it comes to their policies, its another thing entirely to behave, the way Lauren boebert has since she has been in office.

Evidently she's just been hurling insults at her opponent and the people voting against her since the results started pouring in, so uh, about that.

I see Boebert is emulating the path of Marilyn Musgrave, likely to its eventual conclusion.

In the words of Stephen King, ka's a wheel. It all comes back around.

[Crumpets]

If they're sticking to their usual schedule, there should be a new batch of ballots coming in in Washington in a few minutes.

Just posted on WA SoS site:

New totals for WA-8:
Schrier (D) 53.2% (+0.5%)
Larkin (R) 46.5% (-0.5%)

Don't see any changes in WA-3, but WA-8 can probably be called for Schrier.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The fact that the race was even close at all should be a big wake up call to Lauren boebert

Her constituents were clearly not impressed by her antics and if I was her I would tone it down going forward.

It's one thing to be a very passionate conservative who is willing to fight with the Dems when it comes to their policies, its another thing entirely to behave, the way Lauren boebert has since she has been in office.

Evidently she's just been hurling insults at her opponent and the people voting against her since the results started pouring in, so uh, about that.

I see Boebert is emulating the path of Marilyn Musgrave, likely to its eventual conclusion.

In the words of Stephen King, ka's a wheel. It all comes back around.

I'm kind of surprised that CO-03 is even this close. I expected Ds to do well in the House, but I did not have CO-03 as one of the marquee races helping decide who had a majority.

[Aurelius]

California is considerably more R than it "should" be given the national environment.  Newsom is only up 57/43 currently.  Is this a mirage or another NY situation?  Note that the post-election updates today and yesterday have pushed the state more R so far.

Hard to say, because 1. LA County is huge and 2. it doesn't really have any easy comp counties. When I made the map the two trends that popped out is that counties that were 1. more progressive and 2. in close proximity to the Bay Area trended harder toward Dahle (probably because Larry Elder scared them). LA is probably more progressive than its surrounding counties, but it is definitely not more progressive than Humboldt or Santa Cruz. But yeah, I definitely expect the county to shift at least 2 or 3 points leftward from current results when all is said and done.

I might be overfitting the progressiveness thing based on Humboldt, less confident on that one than the Bay Area one. It also might just be that bigger metros are shifting harder toward Dahle from the recall.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Newsom underperforms the recall, this is something I’ve discussed with Abdullah. With COVID receding there’s less of a pro-incumbent environment this year.

But given the insane R margins/D underperformance in the uncalled SoCal House seats with <60% of the vote in, I sure hope it’s an R mirage and not a mini-NY. Steel and Garcia shouldn’t win reelection with anywhere close to double-digit margins… (Young Kim, maybe- her district is the most R and she’s been the most unfairly slighted by the Leipverse meme economy)

Yeah, I expect Dahle to end up with at least 41% at this point. I think the biggest factor is that Larry Elder was a very effective bogeyman for Dem turnout and Brian Dahle isn't.

[Aurelius]

This is likely Boebert’s final term. If the party comes down hard on her like they did on Cawthorn she’ll lose her primary.

I doubt they do, I hear she's been acting a lot more normal lately.

[Xing]

If they're sticking to their usual schedule, there should be a new batch of ballots coming in in Washington in a few minutes.

Just posted on WA SoS site:

New totals for WA-8:
Schrier (D) 53.2% (+0.5%)
Larkin (R) 46.5% (-0.5%)

Don't see any changes in WA-3, but WA-8 can probably be called for Schrier.

I’m guessing that’s an update from the King county portion, and that the update from the other counties will bring Schrier’s margin down a bit, but yeah, that race is probably over. WA-03 is really hard to predict.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If they're sticking to their usual schedule, there should be a new batch of ballots coming in in Washington in a few minutes.

Just posted on WA SoS site:

New totals for WA-8:
Schrier (D) 53.2% (+0.5%)
Larkin (R) 46.5% (-0.5%)

Don't see any changes in WA-3, but WA-8 can probably be called for Schrier.

I’m guessing that’s an update from the King county portion, and that the update from the other counties will bring Schrier’s margin down a bit, but yeah, that race is probably over. WA-03 is really hard to predict.

Not surprising...the House results are mostly 2020 redux, and WA-08 barely changed at all in partisanship.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1590850407470747648

Lauren Boebert has this I think. If there are only about 3,000-5000 Ballots in Pueblo Frisch would need some 80+ % of them to erase that 1,229 Vote lead Boebert now has.

[Person Man]

How is the southwest/I-13 corridor  and the house at large looking? Been off for 3 hours.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1590850407470747648
Lauren Boebert has this I think. If there are only about 3,000-5000 Ballots in Pueblo Frisch would need some 80+ % of them to erase that 1,229 Vote lead Boebert now has.

I might have called this for Frisch a while back. Assuming such - If Boebert wins here, it would be the first call of mine to have proven wrong.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

https://twitter.com/paulsgkim/status/1590851867072135172

What happened there?

[Sestak]

House Math




This is a “best case R” map made by fellow user scutosaurus, which I generally agree with. Democrats need to win 5 of the light red seats here for a majority. CO-03 is gone, so discount that.

I feel fairly good about Dems winning 2-3 of the light red CA seats. That leaves four competitive races in WA, OR, and AZ to decide things.


I don’t necessarily think Dems are favored but it’s absolutely doable.

[MillennialModerate]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1590850407470747648
Lauren Boebert has this I think. If there are only about 3,000-5000 Ballots in Pueblo Frisch would need some 80+ % of them to erase that 1,229 Vote lead Boebert now has.

I might have called this for Frisch a while back. Assuming such - If Boebert wins here, it would be the first call of mine to have proven wrong.

Welcome to the club

[Crumpets]

If they're sticking to their usual schedule, there should be a new batch of ballots coming in in Washington in a few minutes.

Just posted on WA SoS site:

New totals for WA-8:
Schrier (D) 53.2% (+0.5%)
Larkin (R) 46.5% (-0.5%)

Don't see any changes in WA-3, but WA-8 can probably be called for Schrier.

I’m guessing that’s an update from the King county portion, and that the update from the other counties will bring Schrier’s margin down a bit, but yeah, that race is probably over. WA-03 is really hard to predict.

Just to give some idea of how much might be out in these races, WA-8 is at 74% of 2018 turnout and WA-3 is at 72% (different boundaries though). However, NYT still lists both races as "67% in" so they must be expecting higher turnout. Either way, still probably a couple more days before we hit >90% reporting in either.

[MillennialModerate]

Anyone think that since 218-217 is really impossible to get anything passed in - that it’s better for Dems politically if the GOP wins the majority (at that number specifically I mean)

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1590771129681342464

The most sane Republican circa 2032, maybe earlier.

[It’s so Joever]

AZ-06 has already been called and I see little reason to believe the call is off.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1590850407470747648
Lauren Boebert has this I think. If there are only about 3,000-5000 Ballots in Pueblo Frisch would need some 80+ % of them to erase that 1,229 Vote lead Boebert now has.

I might have called this for Frisch a while back. Assuming such - If Boebert wins here, it would be the first call of mine to have proven wrong.

Welcome to the club

It really sucks this is the likely outcome. I told people IRL that Boebert was "95% likely" to have lost.

[ProgressiveModerate]

AZ-06 has already been called and I see little reason to believe the call is off.

I mean Ciscomani is literally under running Trump in the 2 counties fully in (albiet they are both small and not necessarily representative of the rest of the district)

Unless someone has precinct level results that shows Engel is not getting what she needs out of the Tucson suburbs, I don’t see how they could’ve made the call. I’d say Ciscomani is favored though.