Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/hjessy_/status/1590777941029310464

It's just a matter of time for CCM to take the lead at this point, like Biden in PA 2020.  I'm starting to wonder whether Sisolak might have an outside shot to hang on.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I really don’t understand what’s going on in CO-03.  I feel like I’ve seen like the last ~10 reports have said something like “this should be the last of the Republican-leaning ballots”, and then somehow there’s more.  And then there’s a claim that the Election Day vote should be more Democratic than the mail vote??? Isn’t that the exact opposite of like every other state?

[Kamala's side hoe]

Just realized if Perez wins and Porter holds on that the entirety of the West Coast, including Alaska will be blue.

Kind of sad that Porter's barely holding on at this point in the count. Her stump speech on corporate price gouging may have helped prevent an R wave.

A bit off topic, but wonder if this was a factor

Dark Brandon rises again.

https://twitter.com/Zecca_Lehn/status/1590766210420916224

[wbrocks67]

I would assume there is a ton of Dem-leaning mail out in CA? Newsom only at +14.6 and Padilla at +17.4. Would think Newsom would end up closer to 20 and Padilla closer to like 22-23?

[Tintrlvr]

I really don’t understand what’s going on in CO-03.  I feel like I’ve seen like the last ~10 reports have said something like “this should be the last of the Republican-leaning ballots”, and then somehow there’s more.  And then there’s a claim that the Election Day vote should be more Democratic than the mail vote??? Isn’t that the exact opposite of like every other state?

I think what people are saying is that the new drop is R-leaning because it was election day, but more of the remaining ballots are mail.

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/hjessy_/status/1590777941029310464
It's just a matter of time for CCM to take the lead at this point, like Biden in PA 2020.  I'm starting to wonder whether Sisolak might have an outside shot to hang on.

So probably a CCM win by a little less than 2% it looks like?

[wbrocks67]

Just realized if Perez wins and Porter holds on that the entirety of the West Coast, including Alaska will be blue.

Kind of sad that Porter's barely holding on at this point in the count. Her stump speech on corporate price gouging may have helped prevent an R wave.

A bit off topic, but wonder if this was a factor

Dark Brandon rises again.

https://twitter.com/Zecca_Lehn/status/1590766210420916224

Again, I think based on CA's usual counting and what appears to be out, this is probably the lowest Porter would go.

[new_patomic]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1590810818937229313?s=20&t=6eWGf2S...

Good batch

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

I think the country could be open to a gay man. Just not Buttigieg. My reasoning for it is that Polis had been the top vote getter two times a row in the past two Colorado midterms, and while Colorado is obviously blue, he’s still a proven winner even in some Trump-curious areas.

US voting intention 2024: masc4masc?

America is still too prejudiced to vote for a twink unfortunately. However, with the overperformances of Polis and Fetterman, I think a bear would be formidable.

If Idaho can elect a Butch Otter, I think the US at large could easily elect a bear.

[John Dule]

Can someone who is optimistic about CA-03 please explain why? Placer County voted R by 7 points in 2020 and the district's D counties (Inyo, Mono, etc) are not nearly as populous.

White liberal heavy seat. The part of Placer County in that seat is the D parts. I don’t think it flips this year but probably will later in the decade.

It encompasses all of Placer County.

Placer County has some suburbs for Ds to improve upon iirc. Maybe that is where some of the optimism lies?

Some improvement happened in 2020 but a lot of that margin came out of the third-party vote. Trump actually improved his overall percentage (though not his margin) in Placer in 2020.

[Spectator]

Hobbs starting to look a lot better in odds

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Can someone who is optimistic about CA-03 please explain why? Placer County voted R by 7 points in 2020 and the district's D counties (Inyo, Mono, etc) are not nearly as populous.

White liberal heavy seat. The part of Placer County in that seat is the D parts. I don’t think it flips this year but probably will later in the decade.

It encompasses all of Placer County.

My bad, the D parts of El Dorado near Tahoe was what I confused it with.

Easy to do when the county seat of El Dorado is… Placerville.

[wbrocks67]

Looks like 20K more VBMs left in Philly, 12-13K in Chester, and 4-5k in Montco, so nearly 40K left at least in PA to count. Plus a small chunk of those election day ballots in Philly.

[7,052,770]

Anyone else feel like we've come too far to lose CO-3 after all this? That would be quite a gut punch!

[Schiff for Senate]

I told you all Otero would end Frisch, its just too red.

You told us all a bunch of things that turned out to have not happened so from you it's meaningless, especially when you call the game after it's over

I agree, but wait, does this mean Boebart’s won? That’s not what I’m seeing, and I most certainly hope it’s not true. Ousting Boebart would be one of the biggest highlights of this cycle for me - a loud, extremist show horse losing in a shored-up seat Trump won by a decent margin.

To my knowledge there's not a lot of vote out, and it's really anybody's guess. But Forumlurker is coming in here acting like he's some sage when he's done nothing but predicted the worst case in literally every instance, and confidently proclaiming one was right beforehand, when everybody has basically an even 50/50 shot, means nothing

I absolutely agree (and am relieved that Frisch can still win - I so want him to).

[SCNCmod]

Well, Biden will win primary very easily if he decides to run (very, very likely). He is effective leader for Democrats, relatively popular with base and relatively unpolarizating figure. There is no reason for him not to run (except health issues), and there is no reason for the base to reject him

Biden isn't that popular with the base... when compared to other Dems (he is popular compared to a Republican opponent).

He's not even winning the latest NH primary poll- I think he only has like 16% support... Buttigieg has 17% support and 4 or 5 others are spread out between Biden & Harris (who is 6th or 7th with single digit support).

And this will only continue to grow- bc the almost universal reason Dems give for not wanting him to run- is his age...  and he will be even older 2 years from now.

If Biden announces he’ll run for reelection, he’ll run unopposed. And his support from the party will rise dramatically, just like it did once he became the nominee in 2020.

Wasn’t there chatter among democrats back in 2011 for Hillary to replace Obama after his shellacking?

And realistically, who else would Democrats run? Harris and Buttigieg would lose in landslides. The country isn’t going to elect a gay man or a black women.

I think the country could be open to a gay man. Just not Buttigieg. My reasoning for it is that Polis had been the top vote getter two times a row in the past two Colorado midterms, and while Colorado is obviously blue, he’s still a proven winner even in some Trump-curious areas.

The country is def open to someone who is gay and frankly doesn’t care. But probably more “flamboyant” or “submissive” gay man.

Neither Polis or Buttigieg made it the centerpiece of their campaign, and they don’t come across as “stereotypically” gay if that makes sense.

Definitely one of the posts of all time.

We can agree to disagree on whether Biden will run- and if he would get the nom even if he did run. IMO- both are No. Age is what is different that past situations mentioned above- he will be in his 80s. (And to be fair- Although I don't want him to run...I do think he is actually still mentally sharp- even if his speech doesn't always 100% reflect such- but perception is reality in political regards).

I understand hesitations regarding if Country would elect a Gay President & I do think superficial qualities to matter in this regard. Buttigieg isn't my #1 choice.. but he is in my Top 3.

But the reason I do think Buttigieg could end up proving to be a really effective Nominee... is he has that political X factor that Obama & Especially Bill Clinton have - the ability to effectively convey complex policy in an easy to understand, logical manner.... and he has the ability to potentially come across as overwhelming the overwhelming most competent choice... and he has a delivery that doesn't turn off Republicans who may not fully agree with his policy position.

But again- although Buttigieg isn't top pick currently... I also can see a scenario where a ticket like Buttigieg/ Andy Beshear ... could be an extreme effective ticket (both early to mid 40s who come across as very mature/ reliable, a veteran- Rhodes Scholar & the most popular Dem Gov in the country- even though he's in a red state- and Jewish). And neither are members of Congress).

 ... Although- likely 1 completed year as Governor, even if a strong year, makes it pretty much impossible... I could also see a Buttigieg/ Wes Moore and an incredibly dynamic ticket (Both Veterans, Both Rhodes Scholars, Both early 40s, Both minority (not straight white males), Both extremely effective communicators, and Both are not members of Congress). Bit again- highly unlikely.

But I put the Most likely nom being a Southern Dem Gov from a Red State (Cooper or Beshear). NC is the 2020 winner of Best State for Business (Cooper) ... and  Beshear is most popular current Dem Gov (based on approval %.

My Ideal 2024 would be Dem ticket with two 40-somethings ... and Biden agreeing to be the a Strong, Influential post-President Secretary of State to complement the young ticket (Foreign Policy is an area he loves- and he has more FP experience than anyone in politics).

[Biden 2024]

Hobbs, CCM, Kelly will all win.

[Lief 🗽]

holy crap

Hobbs is going to win

[Spectator]

Anyone else feel like we've come too far to lose CO-3 after all this? That would be quite a gut punch!

All the more disappointing since if Frisch matched Bennet and Polis in southern Colorado it’d be his cleanly

[Lief 🗽]

Any chance of the Arizona legislature flipping? Or are the Republicans going to have like a 1-2 seat majority like they always seem to end up with?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well, Biden will win primary very easily if he decides to run (very, very likely). He is effective leader for Democrats, relatively popular with base and relatively unpolarizating figure. There is no reason for him not to run (except health issues), and there is no reason for the base to reject him

Biden isn't that popular with the base... when compared to other Dems (he is popular compared to a Republican opponent).

He's not even winning the latest NH primary poll- I think he only has like 16% support... Buttigieg has 17% support and 4 or 5 others are spread out between Biden & Harris (who is 6th or 7th with single digit support).

And this will only continue to grow- bc the almost universal reason Dems give for not wanting him to run- is his age...  and he will be even older 2 years from now.

Wrong,

He is popular with the Boomer Hen not Y2K Generation that's why he has Harris but DEMINGS can win FL in 2024 she may or may not run in 24 but she should of been Veep

[😥]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1590810818937229313?s=20&t=6eWGf2S...

Good batch

I wonder if this means that AZ-06 can be D hold?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wait, so Kari Lake might actually lose?? I don't think I will ever come down from such a high if that happens.

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1590810818937229313?s=20&t=6eWGf2S...
Good batch

I wonder if this means that AZ-06 can be D hold?

Is AZ-06 the Engel-Ciscomani seat?

[😥]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1590810818937229313?s=20&t=6eWGf2S...
Good batch

I wonder if this means that AZ-06 can be D hold?

Is AZ-96 the Engel-Ciscomani seat?

Yes, it is