Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[adma]

I've compiled a Google Sheet of NJ's House races by municipality.

If you really want an illumination of the problem with electoral politics in the USA today (not to mention the kind of status quo the GOP wants to uphold), it's the fact that Camden and Cherry Hill have roughly the same population (in fact, the latter surpassed the former for the first time in the 2020 census); yet while Camden had 7,193 votes, Cherry Hill had 26,401 votes.  Yeah, I know, "it is what it is"; but...

[wbrocks67]

Never forget:

https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1588506562749923330

[Roll Roons]

Never forget:

https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1588506562749923330

For all we know, that pollster was talking about Florida specifically.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Let's not forget that FL is a Cuban Embargo state while Rs talk about how good FL is to Rs but we don't know whom our nominee are for FL and TX and Biden is leading Trump we never need FL or TX it's wave insurance but it's silly not to target it just like OH and NC because of the Minority vote what isn't a Battleground state is obviously IA its become the MO and IN of the MIDWEST

But, if it's a +5 or +6 EDay we never know what type of wave insurance map we lost the PVI in 22 and still held onto WI, MI and PA and we won the PVI by 5 in 2020 it was a 303 map and by 4 in 2012, Fetterman won PA by the same margins Obama won 2012 by 51/47 that's how you know the IPSOS POLLS SHOWING 37/57 Approvals IS FAKE, it maybe the right track wrong track number but Rassy has it at 46 percent, but I believe it's 51/47 because if Eday was held today we would get a 303 map but the Eday isn't today it's 2 yrs and we can win the S with wave insurance we are leading in Gov race in NC , we know we can win the H on winning the Districts we lost in CA, NY, AZ and VA


We are almost there if Gallego promaries Sinema to a 51/49 S and 218/217 H

Rs don't want to raise Corporate taxes, guess what Corporate taxes already pays our unemployment and SSA and SSA is going bankrupt in 2035 it's gonna be raised ANYWAYS BACK TO 30 PERCENT, by then Anyways , they say we can live til 2070 vastly outliving out Boomer parents due to ANESTHESIA , by then it's probably 50 percent Corporate Taxes

[Xing]

One thing I’ll say is that the talking point that has aged perhaps more poorly than any other is the one that Democrats were better off losing in 2020.

[Yoda]

As we suspected, the red wave in New York was less about crime or persuasion and simply just more about crappy Dem turnout.

https://twitter.com/therealjsolo/status/1596474620861120512

The most hated (ex) New Yorker possibly in existence being the republican party's presidential nominee in '24 should do wonders for turnout and help democrats win all those House seats back.

[Yoda]

I know I'm posting this again but jesus christ, imagine being as wrong as Jessica Taylor and Chuck Todd are and still having your job afterwards. Just so, so wrong.

https://twitter.com/MeetThePress/status/1588632779398516738

Yeh, not to pile on myself here, but....how in the hell did she come up with 50-50 being the best case scenario? My best case scenario going into ED was 52-48 dems, with the obvious pickups being PA and WI and the dems defending all their incumbents. This scenario was extremely doable, unless you're an absolute idiot and allowed yourself to believe that last minute crush of junk GOP polls right before the elec - ooooooooooh thaaaaat's what happened.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The RNC post-morgen panel will include such luminaries as John James, Katie Britt, and *Blake Masters*.

https://mobile.twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1597572349997584385

John James I can kinda see, but Katie Britt is also a head scratcher. She won in Alabama. She would’ve won even if Trump was still President and had a 9% approval rating. Not sure if they should be turning to her on advice for winning competitive elections.

[Roll Roons]

The RNC post-morgen panel will include such luminaries as John James, Katie Britt, and *Blake Masters*.

https://mobile.twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1597572349997584385

John James I can kinda see, but Katie Britt is also a head scratcher. She won in Alabama. She would’ve won even if Trump was still President and had a 9% approval rating. Not sure if they should be turning to her on advice for winning competitive elections.

It fell by the wayside, but Britt ran an amazing campaign. People forget that she was starting from a pretty deep hole because everyone assumed Brooks was effectively Senator-in-waiting after Trump endorsed him.

[Gracile]

Putting in perspective the geographic changes in House makeup over the last 20 years-

https://twitter.com/amyewalter/status/1597992368195907585

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am anxious for Jan 3rd if we get a D speaker or 24 we are so close to Filibuster reform and McCarthy does t have votes to be Speaker either way if Warnock wins and a D Speaker Manchin is the swing vote not Sinema on Voting Rights and if it goes to 24 we will win it then.

Bennet said either way 23 or 25 the Ds are ready to gut the Filibuster they will stand together against Leader McConnell

Gutting Filibuster helps Rs too if we get a Filibuster proof Trifecta we are gonna expand SSA with raising cap on SSA raise in SSA, I hope they know that and more Students loans Discharge 50 K not just 20 K and gun control Rs always talk about crime

[Antonio the Sixth]

Putting in perspective the geographic changes in House makeup over the last 20 years-

https://twitter.com/amyewalter/status/1597992368195907585

Shameless plug:

[wbrocks67]

Pretty crazy - Horn won the old OK-05 this year. Very obvious why GOP gerrymandered the hell out of this seat

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1597785312146919424

[wbrocks67]

GOP down to +2.9 lead in house vote

Republicans 54,316,699 (50.7%)
Democrats 51,162,693 (47.8%)

=107,146,260

538 average on GCB (R+1.2) looks about close to right once you remove all uncontested races

[Progressive Pessimist]

Referring to those New Jersey House results, not to be too centered on my own hometown again, but it's interesting to me that it voted almost exactly in line for Pallotta as it did for my council and mayoral races...I hate my lean R town...

One thing I’ll say is that the talking point that has aged perhaps more poorly than any other is the one that Democrats were better off losing in 2020.

Absolutely. Even though the Democratic Party possibly would have had its greatest midterm ever if the same things occurred during a Trump six year itch featuring record gas prices, inflation, the Dobbs decision, the same bad candidates, etc. the country still wouldn't have been as well off.

For awhile I was resigned to thinking that Democrats always came to power at the worst times and that the party was in a lose-lose situation post-2016 no matter what, but after these midterms we actually got it does seem like our horrible timeline is kind of balancing out more into positive territory now, finally!

As we suspected, the red wave in New York was less about crime or persuasion and simply just more about crappy Dem turnout.

https://twitter.com/therealjsolo/status/1596474620861120512

The most hated (ex) New Yorker possibly in existence being the republican party's presidential nominee in '24 should do wonders for turnout and help democrats win all those House seats back.

We'll see. There unfortunately is the possibility of Lawler, Molinaro, etc. being moderate enough to have crossover support and keep their seats (if the New York map doesn't get redrawn) in spite of most environmental factors a la Fitzpatrick. Okay, maybe not that severe, they probably would lose in a blue wave unlike him.

[Pericles]

It's interesting how Connecticut 5th was one of the closest Democratic wins, despite it not being an open seat and being a Biden +11% district. I wonder if the same effect that we saw in New York happened there.

[Tintrlvr]

GOP down to +2.9 lead in house vote

Republicans 54,316,699 (50.7%)
Democrats 51,162,693 (47.8%)

=107,146,260

538 average on GCB (R+1.2) looks about close to right once you remove all uncontested races

I think you could make a reasonable estimate if you just substitute Presidential results in the uncontested races and adjust turnout from 2020 to 2022 levels in those seats on a universal basis. Not perfect but pretty good.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Pretty crazy - Horn won the old OK-05 this year. Very obvious why GOP gerrymandered the hell out of this seat

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1597785312146919424

This makes me sad. 

[wbrocks67]

So if I have this right before I finally, probably go to bed:

Nevada could go either way and it really all depends on Clark mail-in ballots.

Arizona looks fairly solid for Kelly.

Georgia is definitely going to a run-off.

Pennsylvania called for Fetterman already.

Those were the "big four" and that's where they stand now?

Oh and all the abortion rights amendments seem to be coming down on the pro-choice side, and AZ Gov is probably a toss-up? Meanwhile MI/PA/WI Gov all went D?

Is that where we're at right now basically?

Lake is going to win AZ Gov.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

A very interesting and surreal thread.

https://twitter.com/LoganR2WH/status/1598055171158061057?s=20&t=iaPNtVx4acoy...

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/LoganR2WH/status/1598055171158061057

Republicans had lower turnout than Democrats in 2010? Good lord, Dems must've gotten destroyed by independents.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/LoganR2WH/status/1598055171158061057

Republicans had lower turnout than Democrats in 2010? Good lord, Dems must've gotten destroyed by independents.

That was still a time when registered Democrats far outweighed registered Republicans in places like West Virginia, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Florida, etc.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/LoganR2WH/status/1598055171158061057

Republicans had lower turnout than Democrats in 2010? Good lord, Dems must've gotten destroyed by independents.

The statistic he used isn't actually turnout difference - it's the difference between Democratic and Republican ID in the midterm electorate. The way he presented it is deeply misleading and makes his analysis seem rather shallow (although the point about independents is well taken).

[Torie]

GOP down to +2.9 lead in house vote

Republicans 54,316,699 (50.7%)
Democrats 51,162,693 (47.8%)

=107,146,260

538 average on GCB (R+1.2) looks about close to right once you remove all uncontested races

I think you could make a reasonable estimate if you just substitute Presidential results in the uncontested races and adjust turnout from 2020 to 2022 levels in those seats on a universal basis. Not perfect but pretty good.

Yes, except that one should factor in a swing factor. In CA, each and every contested CD had a GOP swing (from 0.24% to 9.62% - the higher percentages mostly due to strong Pub incumbents) varying to  a considerable extent based on the percentage turnout decline from 2020. So for the 7 seats where there was no GOP candidate, one might factor in say a 3 point swing.

The independents not going to the GOP does fit into the thesis that the modest GOP gains were driven by the Dems having a lower turnout than the Pubs. I don't think abortion and democracy were  very effective motivators to vote outside the high SES zones. They will be even less so next cycle I suspect. The Dems will need to focus on a new message. I suspect they might have difficulty agreeing on one, just as is the case with the Pubs, where it becomes ever more apparent that the various factions quite detest each other. One can blame it all on Trump, but then take a look at UK politics, where in a more muted way the same thing is going on, it seems to me.

[Brittain33]

The Dems will need to focus on a new message.

I don’t know, it seems like Dobbs worked to overcome some but not all of the Dems’ expected midterm turnout advantage. Doesn’t make sense to ditch what worked when they should expect a Presidential campaign to address the problems with minorities and others in safe blue states.