Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Tekken_Guy]

My cold take is that 2022 was better for Dems than 2018 was on about every level.

New York went from having a Democrat represent Staten Island to Republicans representing Westchester county. Democrats were winning red suburban seats in Oklahoma City, Charleston, Salt Lake City. They went from holding three seats in Iowa to none after this year.

[Xing]

My cold take is that 2022 was better for Dems than 2018 was on about every level.

In the Senate, this is mostly due to the maps which were up. If the Class I map had been up this year, Democrats probably would’ve lost MT/OH/WV, and possibly one more. On the flip side, had the Class III map been up in 2018, Republicans would’ve lost all the seats they lost this time, plus NC/WI and possibly even OH.

[wbrocks67]

My cold take is that 2022 was better for Dems than 2018 was on about every level.

New York went from having a Democrat represent Staten Island to Republicans representing Westchester county. Democrats were winning red suburban seats in Oklahoma City, Charleston, Salt Lake City. They went from holding three seats in Iowa to none after this year.

I mean most of what you're describing is also due to gerrymandering, especially Oklahoma, Charleston, SLC.

[Tekken_Guy]

My cold take is that 2022 was better for Dems than 2018 was on about every level.

New York went from having a Democrat represent Staten Island to Republicans representing Westchester county. Democrats were winning red suburban seats in Oklahoma City, Charleston, Salt Lake City. They went from holding three seats in Iowa to none after this year.

I mean most of what you're describing is also due to gerrymandering, especially Oklahoma, Charleston, SLC.

Mace's seat isn't that much redder than the old one and she only won by 14 in a race that was not considered competitive.

SLC and OKC though...those gerrymanders look safe for the decade.

[wbrocks67]

Fetterman up to +4.9, Shapiro +14.8, and DeLuzio +6.8 on NYT with Allegheny provisionals added.

[adma]

I just KNOW it will be 218-217 in the House, 51-49 in the Senate, and 26-24 in governorships.

You just can’t make it up.

Pretty much everyone I know from my generation-- coworkers, high school friends, law students, etc-- voted this cycle. It transcended racial and socioeconomic strata. And the least cool thing you can be as a Zoomer is a pro-life Christian fundamentalist. Nick Fuentes was right: This is going to be a godless nation. And that's a good thing.

So sad how young Christians are made to feel ashamed of their faith, and how people like you are actively cheering it on.

I think they’re ashamed of the trashy, bigoted behavior of their grandparents’ generation which co-opts the word “faith.”

Not to mention, ashamed of the hateful Nick Fuentes types who are hogging their own generation's "faith" spotlight.

[Spectator]

My cold take is that 2022 was better for Dems than 2018 was on about every level.

New York went from having a Democrat represent Staten Island to Republicans representing Westchester county. Democrats were winning red suburban seats in Oklahoma City, Charleston, Salt Lake City. They went from holding three seats in Iowa to none after this year.

And Dems won Alaska and WA-03 which went red in 2018, so I don’t understand your point. If it’s to try and paint a picture of 2022 as a red year, that’s a pretty low bar to use Staten Island and gerrymandered seats in OK, UT, and SC as proof.

[Tekken_Guy]

My cold take is that 2022 was better for Dems than 2018 was on about every level.

New York went from having a Democrat represent Staten Island to Republicans representing Westchester county. Democrats were winning red suburban seats in Oklahoma City, Charleston, Salt Lake City. They went from holding three seats in Iowa to none after this year.

And Dems won Alaska and WA-03 which went red in 2018, so I don’t understand your point. If it’s to try and paint a picture of 2022 as a red year, that’s a pretty low bar to use Staten Island and gerrymandered seats in OK, UT, and SC as proof.

Those were the only Trump seats they won that they didn't already hold prior to 2020.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Fetterman up to +4.9, Shapiro +14.8, and DeLuzio +6.8 on NYT with Allegheny provisionals added.

Are there enough votes left that could get Fetterman to 5 points?

[South Dakota Democrat]

WI-GOV is gonna be a nailbiter.

It wasn't.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Alot of users still talking about how Ds are gonna lose MI Debbie STABENOW or Jacky Rosen lol the Approvals proves that we held onto the blue wall with Biden 46 percent Approvals and since no Incumbent Senator lost and only 1 D Gov lost, we still have a chance to net the Secular Trifecta in 24 because it's always higher turnout in Prez

Rs aren't gonna sweep WV, OH, MT, KY or NC Gov unless a Fabio AARP That accurately polled WI split between Evers and Johnson, says we are gonna lose them and all our Incumbents have similar Approvals as Ron Johnson

Manchin is clearly the most vulnerable but I can see a scenario Tester loses before Manchin, WVA has split votes since the days of Robert C Byrd, Bush W won WVA overwhelmed and Robert C Byrd and Jay Rockefeller got voted back into office but they can lose or win by Johnson margins they won't be a landslide

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

WI-GOV is gonna be a nailbiter.

It wasn't.

A prediction that WI-GOV would be close isn't a take to bump. It's like someone predicting Cal Cunningham would win in 2020.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fetterman up to +4.9, Shapiro +14.8, and DeLuzio +6.8 on NYT with Allegheny provisionals added.

So he gained a full point in the weeks after election night. For all the talk about AZ, NV and CA, Pennsylvania's vote counting process means that if the election had been as close as some of those races out West, it would have taken a while to be able call it. It might have gone on even longer than NV-SEN or AZ-GOV, which would have been nerve-wracking. Luckily, Big John just crushed the snake oil salesman, so we didn't have to worry about that. Still worth keeping in mind for 2024 if things get tight, though.

[UncleSam]

My cold take is that 2022 was better for Dems than 2018 was on about every level.

New York went from having a Democrat represent Staten Island to Republicans representing Westchester county. Democrats were winning red suburban seats in Oklahoma City, Charleston, Salt Lake City. They went from holding three seats in Iowa to none after this year.

And Dems won Alaska and WA-03 which went red in 2018, so I don’t understand your point. If it’s to try and paint a picture of 2022 as a red year, that’s a pretty low bar to use Staten Island and gerrymandered seats in OK, UT, and SC as proof.

Well ok, then just look at the seats won. 235 vs 212. Or the PV, which went from D+7 to R+3.

Relative to expectations, 2022 was better for Dems than 2018 was. But in a vacuum, it’s 2018 and not even close.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We already know that Trump proved that 46 percent isn't that bad because why it used to be that  way but now it's not because the other party overwhelmingly disapprovals of the inparty like 7 percent of Ds or Rs disapprove of Trump or Biden whereas they get 90 percent of their base Approves of them, hat explains why Trump in 2018 and Trump again in 20, and Biden in 22 overperforning expectations

But, in 24 Ds already won the 303 map in 22 with Ds Govs in WI, PA and MI all we need is to win NY, PA, NJ, CA H races and combo of FL, TX, OH, NC, WV and MT Gov and Sen races to net the Secular Trifecta and there can be split voting Manchin, Tester, and Brown have survived since 2006 because they never had 40 percent Approval , no Incumbent Senator lost because as Fabio poll shows even Warnock, Incumbents are polling better even Johnson than their party and Brown has always had a 50 percent Approvals

[It’s so Joever]

My cold take is that 2022 was better for Dems than 2018 was on about every level.

New York went from having a Democrat represent Staten Island to Republicans representing Westchester county. Democrats were winning red suburban seats in Oklahoma City, Charleston, Salt Lake City. They went from holding three seats in Iowa to none after this year.

Proof expectations matter almost as much as actual results.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My cold take is that 2022 was better for Dems than 2018 was on about every level.

New York went from having a Democrat represent Staten Island to Republicans representing Westchester county. Democrats were winning red suburban seats in Oklahoma City, Charleston, Salt Lake City. They went from holding three seats in Iowa to none after this year.

Proof expectations matter almost as much as actual results.

Dems let GOPers think there was a red wave. D voters were scared and turned out, and Rs underestimated how many D voters there would be and might not have put the full effort in.  D expectation management this year was A++.

[Mr.Phips]

My cold take is that 2022 was better for Dems than 2018 was on about every level.

New York went from having a Democrat represent Staten Island to Republicans representing Westchester county. Democrats were winning red suburban seats in Oklahoma City, Charleston, Salt Lake City. They went from holding three seats in Iowa to none after this year.

And Dems won Alaska and WA-03 which went red in 2018, so I don’t understand your point. If it’s to try and paint a picture of 2022 as a red year, that’s a pretty low bar to use Staten Island and gerrymandered seats in OK, UT, and SC as proof.

Well ok, then just look at the seats won. 235 vs 212. Or the PV, which went from D+7 to R+3.

Relative to expectations, 2022 was better for Dems than 2018 was. But in a vacuum, it’s 2018 and not even close.

The weird thing is that even considering the popular vote swing, Dems are basically in the same spot in 2022 vis a vis 2018 when it comes to state legislatures and statewide elections.  I guess maybe that’s due to geographic polarization.

[Gracile]

WA-03 precinct map for results at 11/25 in high quality:

https://twitter.com/redG2pen/status/1596361857044221952

[South Dakota Democrat]

WI-GOV is gonna be a nailbiter.

It wasn't.

A prediction that WI-GOV would be close isn't a take to bump. It's like someone predicting Cal Cunningham would win in 2020.

I mean, I'll bump it if I want to.  I didn't just empty quote it, though, I responded, was slightly mocking it yes, but of course it's not on the same tier as some of the others I've been quoting.

[Skill and Chance]

My cold take is that 2022 was better for Dems than 2018 was on about every level.

New York went from having a Democrat represent Staten Island to Republicans representing Westchester county. Democrats were winning red suburban seats in Oklahoma City, Charleston, Salt Lake City. They went from holding three seats in Iowa to none after this year.

And Dems won Alaska and WA-03 which went red in 2018, so I don’t understand your point. If it’s to try and paint a picture of 2022 as a red year, that’s a pretty low bar to use Staten Island and gerrymandered seats in OK, UT, and SC as proof.

Well ok, then just look at the seats won. 235 vs 212. Or the PV, which went from D+7 to R+3.

Relative to expectations, 2022 was better for Dems than 2018 was. But in a vacuum, it’s 2018 and not even close.

Part of it is that Dems have beaten expectations so rarely in recent history.  Since Reagan, 2022, 2012, and 1998 have been the only serious Dem overperformances, whereas they nearly blew 2020 and actually blew 2016, 2014, 2002, and 2000.  2018 and 1996 also weren't quite the Dem landslides they were expected to be. 

[Mr. Smith]

My cold take is that 2022 was better for Dems than 2018 was on about every level.

New York went from having a Democrat represent Staten Island to Republicans representing Westchester county. Democrats were winning red suburban seats in Oklahoma City, Charleston, Salt Lake City. They went from holding three seats in Iowa to none after this year.

And Dems won Alaska and WA-03 which went red in 2018, so I don’t understand your point. If it’s to try and paint a picture of 2022 as a red year, that’s a pretty low bar to use Staten Island and gerrymandered seats in OK, UT, and SC as proof.

Well ok, then just look at the seats won. 235 vs 212. Or the PV, which went from D+7 to R+3.

Relative to expectations, 2022 was better for Dems than 2018 was. But in a vacuum, it’s 2018 and not even close.

Part of it is that Dems have beaten expectations so rarely in recent history.  Since Reagan, 2022, 2012, and 1998 have been the only serious Dem overperformances, whereas they nearly blew 2020 and actually blew 2016, 2014, 2002, and 2000.  2018 and 1996 also weren't quite the Dem landslides they were expected to be. 

Forgot about 2006 I see, which was very dramatically pro-Dem compared to expectations.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

My cold take is that 2022 was better for Dems than 2018 was on about every level.

New York went from having a Democrat represent Staten Island to Republicans representing Westchester county. Democrats were winning red suburban seats in Oklahoma City, Charleston, Salt Lake City. They went from holding three seats in Iowa to none after this year.

And Dems won Alaska and WA-03 which went red in 2018, so I don’t understand your point. If it’s to try and paint a picture of 2022 as a red year, that’s a pretty low bar to use Staten Island and gerrymandered seats in OK, UT, and SC as proof.

Well ok, then just look at the seats won. 235 vs 212. Or the PV, which went from D+7 to R+3.

Relative to expectations, 2022 was better for Dems than 2018 was. But in a vacuum, it’s 2018 and not even close.

Part of it is that Dems have beaten expectations so rarely in recent history.  Since Reagan, 2022, 2012, and 1998 have been the only serious Dem overperformances, whereas they nearly blew 2020 and actually blew 2016, 2014, 2002, and 2000.  2018 and 1996 also weren't quite the Dem landslides they were expected to be.  

Forgot about 2006 I see, which was very dramatically pro-Dem compared to expectations.

That was right after Katrina in 2005 when Rs cratered so 2006 was very special, the reason why Ds have a much better chance in 24 which Biden leads Trump already in FL is that Biden is back on the ballot in 1996/2012 Ds did much better in Congressional races than 1994/2010, so Ds will logically do better in 24 than 22

Biden have similar approvals as 2020 but this time a 51/49 PVI is pick up H seats and maintaining a majority in the S and OH WVA, MT, TX and FL are vulnerable as well as we can win NC and KY Gov but lose LA, MT, ND, UT, VT and NH GOVs

I am optimistic about 24 the Rs have the votes to investigate Biden but don't have the votes to impeach and Convict Biden on Hunter Biden l, he didn't pay his taxes on time just like Trump didn't but Hunter did pay them back later

[Mexican Wolf]

The incoming Alaska Senate is going to be led by a huge coalition majority, at least according to the Anchorage Daily News:

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1596404172831744001?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ct...

https://www.adn.com/politics/alaska-legislature/2022/11/25/9-democrats-and-8-republicans-form-bipartisan-majority-in-alaska-senate/

[South Dakota Democrat]

In other news, looks like Maryland and Missouri have voted for legal weed, while the Dakotas and Arkansas have voted against.

I thought South Dakota just did vote to legalize it a couple years ago though???

Not sure if this was answered elsewhere, but the South Dakota Supreme Court struck it down because it apparently was not about a "single subject" (it was about the legalization and then the regulation thereof, but whatever).  This time it was brought up for a vote again to meet said single subject requirement, but failed.