Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[emailking]

The 50-50 claim was made was nothing was decided not when 97% of the results were.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The 50-50 claim was made was nothing was decided not when 97% of the results were.

Exactly. It required them to make invalid assumptions about future outcomes to arrive at that conclusion. They were wrong about some of them, as we have seen.

The connection to my game analogy is this: your answers were correct, of course. But if you had said before any coins were flipped that my best case was 1, because you ASSUMED the first coin would be heads, that would have been wrong. Even when the first coin did come up heads, it would not have retroactively made the statement correct.

In the actual case, the commentators made such a comment before any coins were flipped — but then the first coin came up tails instead, which immediately demonstrated they were wrong.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Cross-posting:

F

I guess this gives McCarthy a bit more room on the Speaker vote.

OTOH, Cochise County is refusing to certify its vote totals.  If they haven’t done so by Monday, then they won’t be counted and it’ll flip AZ-6 to the Democrats.

[emailking]

Yeah I get what you're saying, I just don't think that chances for elections are doing anything more than characterizing our uncertainty. So I think Warnock's actual chances of winning are either 0% or 100%. I have no idea which. On the other hand I'm willing to say the chance of a coin coming up head or tails is 50%. I don't think they're retroactively wrong because I don't think the chances of 51-49 lie somewhere between 0% and 100%. If it's 0% then they were right all along (yes for the wrong reasons).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Yeah I get what you're saying, I just don't think that chances for elections are doing anything more than characterizing our uncertainty. So I think Warnock's actual chances of winning are either 0% or 100%. I have no idea which. On the other hand I'm willing to say the chance of a coin coming up head or tails is 50%. I don't think they're retroactively wrong because I don't think the chances of 51-49 lie somewhere between 0% and 100%. If it's 0% then they were right all along (yes for the wrong reasons).

Nope. They were never right for any reasons. But I can see we’re not having a meeting of the minds, so that’s my last word on it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I knew Ds can win red states, and Biden not being on the ballot was a big reason why we lost them and Tim Ryan not campaign with Joe Biden was silly https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1597364073074954240

Josh Stein is leading 44/42 so Beshear can win and Brown and Manchin

[Antonio the Sixth]

A prediction should be judged based on its underlying logic, not based on unrelated circumstances contriving into producing the outcome is called.

People somehow defending this garbage take is really indicative of the gambler brainrot that's taken over a lot of election prediction spaces. This is the same logic that led people to idolize Trafalgar because it made up numbers to get pro-GOP results in a few cycles where it turned out that real polls had a pro-Dem bias. And it's why this place is full of blowhards making overconfident predictions and then the half of them who get it wrong crawl into a hole for a few weeks and the half who got it right brags about it for the next 2 years. It's making these boards unbearable and it needs to stop.

[Zanas]

A prediction should be judged based on its underlying logic, not based on unrelated circumstances contriving into producing the outcome is called.

People somehow defending this garbage take is really indicative of the gambler brainrot that's taken over a lot of election prediction spaces. This is the same logic that led people to idolize Trafalgar because it made up numbers to get pro-GOP results in a few cycles where it turned out that real polls had a pro-Dem bias. And it's why this place is full of blowhards making overconfident predictions and then the half of them who get it wrong crawl into a hole for a few weeks and the half who got it right brags about it for the next 2 years. It's making these boards unbearable and it needs to stop.

Wholeheartedly this, or, to use a low effort meme :

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IPSOS is playing games with the Approvals Biden Approvals aren't 37/57 or 41/52 it's Rassy 46 percent that's why we still have polls like in NC and GA Ds ahead I wish they 🛑 doing thos

It's tiresome already

[Torrain]

The RNC post-morgen panel will include such luminaries as John James, Katie Britt, and *Blake Masters*.

https://mobile.twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1597572349997584385

[GeorgiaModerate]

The RNC post-morgen panel will include such luminaries as John James, Katie Britt, and *Blake Masters*.

https://mobile.twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1597572349997584385

Masters will be Exhibit A.

[Vosem]

The RNC post-morgen panel will include such luminaries as John James, Katie Britt, and *Blake Masters*.

https://mobile.twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1597572349997584385

I don't necessarily think this is a terrible panel? James ran generally ahead of the MIGOP baseline in 2018/2020, and even his 2022 performance looks decent in the context of most of Michigan swinging Democratic relative to 2020. De La Cruz represents an area which is trending hard Republican, and a type of area where Republicans need to make their victories much more consistent. Britt was an insanely successful primary candidate in spite of having a background and opponents suggesting that she should not have done all that strongly at all. Masters' inclusion is iffier since he didn't run a good race or one that anyone should copy, but he's a thoughtful and reflective person who might have things to say on the perils/pitfalls of relying on very specific sources of primary funding, or running very negative primary campaigns. (Also, my understanding is that there's some enthusiasm in certain particular corners of the far-right for Masters primarying Gosar, so doing this kind of thing is a way for him to stay relevant).

(After considering this a little more, this seems like it's mostly about setting people up for future races. James is clearly still the favorite for the Republican nomination for MI-Sen, and might have done a deal with Esshaki wherein he agreed to represent his current seat only for a single term. Masters also clearly still wants to be relevant in the AZGOP, even if he won't be running for AZ-Sen. Britt -- actually kind of like McCarthy -- clearly wants Senate leadership and has been plotting to get it since she was a staffer. De La Cruz's inclusion is a bit odder, since I don't know that she's someone who's been touted for much of anything, but I think having her perspective here makes a fundamental kind of sense).

The voice they need -- if they want people with impressive over-performances, young, minorities, with connections to Thiel -- is Hung Cao. That campaign did "everything" "wrong" -- focused on social issues in wealthy left-trending suburbia, had numerous paperwork/location missteps -- and still did astoundingly well.

[GALeftist]

The RNC post-morgen panel will include such luminaries as John James, Katie Britt, and *Blake Masters*.

https://mobile.twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1597572349997584385

They should add Majewski, Joe Kent, Ryan Zinke, and John Gibbs imo. They've probably got some crucial insights which should be applied broadly.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

The voice they need -- if they want people with impressive over-performances, young, minorities, with connections to Thiel -- is Hung Cao. That campaign did "everything" "wrong" -- focused on social issues in wealthy left-trending suburbia, had numerous paperwork/location missteps -- and still did astoundingly well.

nah fhtagn Peter Thiel

but you have a point on veteran R candidates who emulate Obama 2008 campaign rhetoric

[GeorgiaModerate]

DDHQ: The US House Was Biased Toward Democrats in 2022: Why Republicans Are Developing a Geography Problem

Interesting read.

[kwabbit]

2022 House with 2010s Districts
https://twitter.com/TadeuszMrozek2/status/1596996514680754176
Palm Springs district is an error, Ken Calvert would've won in his old district. Also I guess we'll never know if Kurt Schrader would've survived had he won his primary. My gut says no, given what happened in Clackamas County in the GE and how he underperformed Biden in 2020.

For example, OR-5, which was broken apart into OR-5 and -6.  Chavez DeRemer would have been strong enough to win under the old lines, but Salinas would too.  In the end, I decided to average them & account for where the lines were drawn, and came out with a bare Salinas victory.

Notably, in Georgia applying a swing in GA-6 from Trump+15 to Biden+11 AND in GA-7 from Biden+25 to Biden+6 would both have seen narrow Dem wins in this mathematical exercise.  The suburbs, at least in Atlanta, emphatically did NOT shift back.  It was all gerrymandering.

Amazing how much stronger every narrative would've been under the old maps. The "Republicans lost because of extremists narrative" would've been stronger, because Republicans would've lost a strange connection of seats around the country united by united by unusual candidates, or having had anti-Trump incumbents pushed out; also, a world where the wave (still) mostly doesn't hit the Midwest but the GOP gains in Orlando, South Texas, Vegas, and the Central Valley is a world where "the GOP is gaining with Hispanics" is a much more obvious and hard-to-deny phenomenon. (Also, the AZ meltdown would've been even worse; Tadeusz is right that neither House gain would've connected, and I think under the old maps Democrats would've outright seized an AZ trifecta. OTOH, Republicans would of course have held both houses of the MI legislature).

Calvert’s old district was decently redder IIRC. His current district is really odd. It’s mostly an R pack with the unnecessary inclusion of Palm Springs/Coachella Valley, which Ruiz should have, making it much closer. CA-41 has spawned an odd number of bad takes. Lots of people thought Rollins would come back and the idea that Calvert barely won seems to have calcified, when he won by 5 points in the end. Saying it starts as a tossup in 2024, which many have done, is also premature. It’s a district where higher turnout might benefit the Republicans because the higher turnout would be from more IE rednecks and Hispanics and not as many of the Palm Springs gays.

[Vosem]

The voice they need -- if they want people with impressive over-performances, young, minorities, with connections to Thiel -- is Hung Cao. That campaign did "everything" "wrong" -- focused on social issues in wealthy left-trending suburbia, had numerous paperwork/location missteps -- and still did astoundingly well.

nah fhtagn Peter Thiel

but you have a point on veteran R candidates who emulate Obama 2008 campaign rhetoric

A great ad! I was mostly thinking of Cao's campaign for the Republican convention, which was really heavily focused on issues like CRT in the school curriculum, and various missteps during the general election (when he didn't seem to know where the boundaries of his district were). That ad has a hint of that rhetoric (note the underlined opposition to 'communism', which is not considered a burning issue on the left in 2022), but is an example of how someone can pivot very successfully.

(If your point is simply that Cao was such an excellent candidate that it'd be hard for other Republicans to learn something from him, then there might be some 'there' there but I think the solution would be to try to find guys who are similar. The combination in total -- ethnic minority, veteran background, elite education, more-conservative-on-social-issues-than-you'd-really-expect -- is actually very evocative of Mike Garcia, who has maybe accomplished something similar while actually holding office.)

[emailking]

Trump channeling his inner Star Wars:

I was 232-22 in the MIDTERM ELECTIONS, and still have to listen to DEMS, RINOS, and the Fake News explain how poorly I did (Also, 98.6% in Republican Nomination Endorsements!). Without my Endorsement of Republican Candidates, the numbers would have been a disaster. Same for 2018 and the CORRUPT ELECTION OF 2020, where almost everyone won because, and with the help of, ME - EXCEPT ME - and that’s because the Presidential Election was RIGGED & STOLEN!

[Spectator]

Trump channeling his inner Star Wars:

I was 232-22 in the MIDTERM ELECTIONS, and still have to listen to DEMS, RINOS, and the Fake News explain how poorly I did (Also, 98.6% in Republican Nomination Endorsements!). Without my Endorsement of Republican Candidates, the numbers would have been a disaster. Same for 2018 and the CORRUPT ELECTION OF 2020, where almost everyone won because, and with the help of, ME - EXCEPT ME - and that’s because the Presidential Election was RIGGED & STOLEN!

I hate to be morbid, but will anyone be saddened when he finally dies?

[emailking]

Dude gets a state funeral too.

[wbrocks67]

Just yikes

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1589682847924637696

[emailking]

You might want to look at this.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/pennsylvania/

Oz having a 57% chance of winning at the same time Fetterman has a 10% chance of winning >5.

[Torie]

DDHQ: The US House Was Biased Toward Democrats in 2022: Why Republicans Are Developing a Geography Problem

Interesting read.

Yes, the GOP is in deep trouble in the House unless there is a course correction or the issues change. The Pubs are more imprisoned by their toxic base than the Dems are overall.

[adma]

Trump channeling his inner Star Wars:

I was 232-22 in the MIDTERM ELECTIONS, and still have to listen to DEMS, RINOS, and the Fake News explain how poorly I did (Also, 98.6% in Republican Nomination Endorsements!). Without my Endorsement of Republican Candidates, the numbers would have been a disaster. Same for 2018 and the CORRUPT ELECTION OF 2020, where almost everyone won because, and with the help of, ME - EXCEPT ME - and that’s because the Presidential Election was RIGGED & STOLEN!

I hate to be morbid, but will anyone be saddened when he finally dies?

You might see the crazies refusing to bury him on account of awaiting his resurrection; or declaring his death to be "fake news", much like that of his wouldbe '24 running mate JFK Jr.  It's going to be *weird*, not to mention a little macabre, let me tell you that.  (For all one knows, a WWG1WGA mass suicide might be in the works)

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

The voice they need -- if they want people with impressive over-performances, young, minorities, with connections to Thiel -- is Hung Cao. That campaign did "everything" "wrong" -- focused on social issues in wealthy left-trending suburbia, had numerous paperwork/location missteps -- and still did astoundingly well.

nah fhtagn Peter Thiel

but you have a point on veteran R candidates who emulate Obama 2008 campaign rhetoric

A great ad! I was mostly thinking of Cao's campaign for the Republican convention, which was really heavily focused on issues like CRT in the school curriculum, and various missteps during the general election (when he didn't seem to know where the boundaries of his district were). That ad has a hint of that rhetoric (note the underlined opposition to 'communism', which is not considered a burning issue on the left in 2022), but is an example of how someone can pivot very successfully.

(If your point is simply that Cao was such an excellent candidate that it'd be hard for other Republicans to learn something from him, then there might be some 'there' there but I think the solution would be to try to find guys who are similar. The combination in total -- ethnic minority, veteran background, elite education, more-conservative-on-social-issues-than-you'd-really-expect -- is actually very evocative of Mike Garcia, who has maybe accomplished something similar while actually holding office.)

Hmm I definitely wasn't following this race as closely as you were, but this ad really shows why he overperformed expectations given the fundamentals (albeit not by overperforming with AAPI voters it seems, nor by enough to actually win). References to communism generally seem to be staples of Vietnamese refugee campaigns regardless of party. Never heard much about where he stood on social issues but the Mike Garcia comparison seems legit.