Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[2016]

Duarte officially wins in CA-13
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1598829383321792513
He leads Gray by 565 Votes after the Final Fresno County Drop. San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced & Madera had already certified their Results.

[Tekken_Guy]

Duarte officially wins in CA-13
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1598829383321792513
He leads Gray by 565 Votes after the Final Fresno County Drop. San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced & Madera had already certified their Results.

Duarte might win with a closer raw vote margin than Boebert.

[wbrocks67]

For all the bad Coverage ABC/Washington Post got for their big Wisconsin Polling Miss in 2020 (They had Biden up 17) THEY DID NAIL the Congressional Ballot Test this year.

Their Final Poll before the Election had R+2 (50-48).

Not sure why ABC/Wapo got a bad rep, it was literally one poll and anyone could tell that it was just a one-off bad miss. Their national polling close to the election has generally been very good, similar with NBC News.

[Spectator]

Peltola’s margin got pushed to a flat 10% by late ballots. 55.0% to 45.0%

https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/results/alaska/us-house-district-1

[brucejoel99]

The final call:

https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1598876624111403009

[Tekken_Guy]

The final call:

https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1598876624111403009

Technically Boebert hasn't been called yet.

[Pericles]

https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1598723061116768257

The odd thing about this is that the shift in the national environment looks more correlated with the Dobbs decision. Democrats ran on January 6th in the 2021 elections, and not just in Virginia but in many state elections like in New Jersey. Republicans also did great in the Texas special election just before Dobbs, while suddenly days after they started doing worse than Trump like in Nebraska 1st.  Maybe the RGV was just doing its own thing the whole time, and normal Republicans in state elections  like Youngkin didn't mean anything for federal elections either. It looks like Democrats did get a boost, but it is a big unknown if Republicans were ever heading for a wave or if they were underperforming the whole time.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

We're almost closer to inauguration day than to election day and we are still calling races. This isn't acceptable.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Looks like 222-213 has been confirmed. Not that good for Rs, but it gives them a lot more wiggle room than just 218 or 219 seats.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Looks like 222-213 has been confirmed. Not that good for Rs, but it gives them a lot more wiggle room than just 218 or 219 seats.

Yeah it's definitely as many House seats as I wanted, but every seat counts.  And I think with VA-04 vacant, I think it'll be a 222-212 house for a bit. 

It will still make retirements and, heaven forbid, defections or deaths a lot more interesting. 

[brucejoel99]

The final call:

https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1598876624111403009

Technically Boebert hasn't been called yet.

By the AP, but other outlets such as ABC already have. (Also, Frisch conceded, lol)

[Brittain33]

The Dems will need to focus on a new message.

I don’t know, it seems like Dobbs worked to overcome some but not all of the Dems’ expected midterm turnout advantage. Doesn’t make sense to ditch what worked when they should expect a Presidential campaign to address the problems with minorities and others in safe blue states.

I am just saying I think it will lose salience as it becomes clear that when the smoke clears, most women will be able to still get an abortion in the first trimester without excessive undue inconvenience, so it will get shopworn and lose it's emotional heft. We shall see.

In that case, it will remain salient in some rather big states where abortion is virtually banned (Texas, Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin) and we will need to see what kind of messaging bill the House R majority passes which would be a national ban.

[Inmate Trump]

https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1598723061116768257

It's going to feel so great shoving this in the face of every smug conservative who insisted that 'nobody cared about Jan. 6."

Agree. Or those who act like Jan 6 wasn't an armed insurrection. These people are morons with a lot of hatred for America, and I can't wait to point out how they lost yet another election after claiming democracy wasn't under direct attack by their political party.

Republicans have a lot to answer for and voters are making them face that.

[Skill and Chance]

Approximately 45% of the total 2022 vote was cast early.  This is almost exactly on trend with the gradual increase seen from 2010-14-18.  Strongly suggests that the 70% cast early in 2020 was a one-time thing. 

I wonder where it will stabilize?  Perhaps around 50%. There are now only a handful of states left that haven't adopted some form of no-excuse EV.  It's also notable that California (>12% of the US population) going primarily VBM didn't shift us above the long term trend at all. 

[rbt48]

I would welcome insight into the voter turnout comparing California CD-13 with Colorado CD-3.

It looks like just over 325,000 votes were cast in Colorado CD-3 and around 133,000 votes were cast in California CD-13.  CA CD-13 was generally felt to be a toss-up district while CO CD-3 was likely or safe Republican.  

According to the 2020 census, the average California CD had about 760,350 residents while the average Colorado CD had around 721,714 residents.  

So why were more than 2.4 times as many votes cast in Colorado CD-3 than in California CD-13?   Perhaps one can argue that Boebert's extreme positions and statements drew many more voters out, but there must be more at play here.  I haven't taken the time to compare all California CD turnouts with the same for Colorado (or other states), but I imagine that the California vote totals lag behind several states.

[Tekken_Guy]

I would welcome insight into the voter turnout comparing California CD-13 with Colorado CD-3.

It looks like just over 325,000 votes were cast in Colorado CD-3 and around 133,000 votes were cast in California CD-13.  CA CD-13 was generally felt to be a toss-up district while CO CD-3 was likely or safe Republican.  

According to the 2020 census, the average California CD had about 760,350 residents while the average Colorado CD had around 721,714 residents.  

So why were more than 2.4 times as many votes cast in Colorado CD-3 than in California CD-13?   Perhaps one can argue that Boebert's extreme positions and statements drew many more voters out, but there must be more at play here.  I haven't taken the time to compare all California CD turnouts with the same for Colorado (or other states), but I imagine that the California vote totals lag behind several states.

The Central Valley of CA is known for its very low turnout.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I would welcome insight into the voter turnout comparing California CD-13 with Colorado CD-3.

It looks like just over 325,000 votes were cast in Colorado CD-3 and around 133,000 votes were cast in California CD-13.  CA CD-13 was generally felt to be a toss-up district while CO CD-3 was likely or safe Republican.  

According to the 2020 census, the average California CD had about 760,350 residents while the average Colorado CD had around 721,714 residents.  

So why were more than 2.4 times as many votes cast in Colorado CD-3 than in California CD-13?   Perhaps one can argue that Boebert's extreme positions and statements drew many more voters out, but there must be more at play here.  I haven't taken the time to compare all California CD turnouts with the same for Colorado (or other states), but I imagine that the California vote totals lag behind several states.

The Central Valley of CA is known for its very low turnout.

A non-minute share of the population is ineligible to vote on basis of lack of citizenship, another large share of the population is ineligible to vote on basis of age, and many are just not interested in voting even if they are eligible. In places like the Central Valley, these three groups, put together, add up to a pretty huge share of the population when combined.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I would welcome insight into the voter turnout comparing California CD-13 with Colorado CD-3.

It looks like just over 325,000 votes were cast in Colorado CD-3 and around 133,000 votes were cast in California CD-13.  CA CD-13 was generally felt to be a toss-up district while CO CD-3 was likely or safe Republican.  

According to the 2020 census, the average California CD had about 760,350 residents while the average Colorado CD had around 721,714 residents.  

So why were more than 2.4 times as many votes cast in Colorado CD-3 than in California CD-13?   Perhaps one can argue that Boebert's extreme positions and statements drew many more voters out, but there must be more at play here.  I haven't taken the time to compare all California CD turnouts with the same for Colorado (or other states), but I imagine that the California vote totals lag behind several states.

The Central Valley of CA is known for its very low turnout.

To piggyback, the vote gap was bigger between neighboring CA-22 and CO-3. Around 101,600 votes in CA-22, or 3.2 times as many votes in Colorado's 3rd.

It's not apples to oranges, but in 2014, around 281,000 votes were cast in Colorado's 3rd. Valadao's district of California's 21st? 79,000 votes!

Since 2012, the difference between Colorado's third and the Merced/Valadao districts in California have typically averaged 2.4x and 3x as many votes respectively. In fact, the only elections where it was less than a 3x difference between CO-3 and CA-21 were 2016 (2.8x) and 2020 (2.5x)

[Del Tachi]

Has anyone noted that Democrats will now control every House seat that borders the Pacific Coast?  The pickups in AK-AL and WA-03 ensure it, I think

[Spectator]

Has anyone noted that Democrats will now control every House seat that borders the Pacific Coast?  The pickups in AK-AL and WA-03 ensure it, I think

Yeah, it's been noted. First time in history too, at least if you go by Alaska statehood.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Very rough congressional vote by county map with no shading because I'm lazy. 

• North/South Dakota only had a Independent/Libertarian, on the ballot but it's pretty clear they performed the same as Generic D would.
• Alaska and ME-02 are very rough estimates due to me not being sure how to calculate RCV. Doesn't help that neither state reports it's elections at the county level. 
• MT-02 had a vote split between a Dem and a well-funded center-left independent, allowing Rosendale to carry the counties in pink with a small plurality. 
• Dems would have carried Maricopa if not for both Gosar and Lesko running completely unopposed. Possible similar story with Williamson county TX, which Beto narrowly lost but had John Carter unopposed in TX31. 
• Derek Kilmer lost Grays Harbor by only about 100 votes, and Mason by a little bit more. I kept waiting to see if this would flip with late ballots for the sake of a prettier map, but sadly it didn't happen. 

D Riverside County but R San Bernardino County seems like the inverse of recent presidential results.

A bit disappointing to see OK all red, guess it's the counterpart of MA?

Kaptur didn't win Wood?

She won the portion that's in her district, but the countywide vote was slightly R leaning due to Bob Latta carrying the rest by a wide margin.

For an opposite example, Elaine Luria lost the Chesapeake county of her district but the countywide vote was still Democratic due to the margin in the VA-03 portion.

[Spectator]

Jared Golden won Oxford County and Penobscot County.

[wbrocks67]

CA-13 is such a bad one. Reps had no business winning them, another flop from CA dems for that one. Gray was a good candidate too.

[M0096]

Has anyone noted that Democrats will now control every House seat that borders the Pacific Coast?  The pickups in AK-AL and WA-03 ensure it, I think

Yeah, it's been noted. First time in history too, at least if you go by Alaska statehood.

Also the first time since Washington statehood. The last time it happened was before 1860 elections.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/OldNorthStPol/status/1599483315001511937