Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

232 out of 252 Midterm Races WON who had my Endorsement, and the Fake News is working overtime to try and create the most negative narrative possible. No, the REAL reasons were other than Trump, and I can name them ALL!

^ Trump

Just off the top of my head

1. Kelly Tshibaka
2. Blake Masters
3. Leora Levy
4. HerscheL WaLker
5. Adam Laxalt
6. Don Bolduc
7. Mehmet Oz
8. Gerald Malloy
9. Sarah Palin (x2)
10. John Gibbs
11. Karoline Leavitt
12. Bo Hines
13. Madison Gilbert
14. JR Majewski
15. Jim Bognet
16. Yesli Vega
17. Joe Kent
18. Kari Lake
19. Darren Bailey
20. Scott Jensen
21. Doug Mastriano

Unless he's only counting Congressional races, then it's 17. Only Donald Trump could get different numbers wrong in two different directions.

[wbrocks67]

Susan Wild actually got a few more votes and a higher % than Fetterman did in PA-07!

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1600670635860033536

[GeorgiaModerate]

Susan Wild actually got a few more votes and a higher % than Fetterman did in PA-07!

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1600670635860033536

What's wild (ahem) to me is that Wild and Fetterman got essentially the same number of votes (a 52-vote difference), but Oz got over 7,000 fewer than Scheller.

[wbrocks67]

Is anyone else surprised we've gotten post-mortems on the "inside scoop" of how Lake, Masters, Walker et al's campaigns failed but none for Oz? We got a lot of "How fetterman won" pieces with inside info, but shockingly none (that i know of) on Oz's campaign from the inside.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Susan Wild actually got a few more votes and a higher % than Fetterman did in PA-07!

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1600670635860033536

What's wild (ahem) to me is that Wild and Fetterman got essentially the same number of votes (a 52-vote difference), but Oz got over 7,000 fewer than Scheller.

I mean, one race had third-party candidates running and the other didn't.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Susan Wild actually got a few more votes and a higher % than Fetterman did in PA-07!

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1600670635860033536

What's wild (ahem) to me is that Wild and Fetterman got essentially the same number of votes (a 52-vote difference), but Oz got over 7,000 fewer than Scheller.

I mean, one race had third-party candidates running and the other didn't.

I know, but the corollary is that a huge part of that third-party vote was apparently Republicans who couldn't stomach voting for Oz.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Susan Wild actually got a few more votes and a higher % than Fetterman did in PA-07!

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1600670635860033536

What's wild (ahem) to me is that Wild and Fetterman got essentially the same number of votes (a 52-vote difference), but Oz got over 7,000 fewer than Scheller.

I mean, one race had third-party candidates running and the other didn't.

I know, but the corollary is that a huge part of that third-party vote was apparently Republicans who couldn't stomach voting for Oz.

Probably true for the Libertarian and "Keystone" (lol) candidates. There was also a Green candidate, so it's hard to see those voters ever considering Oz.

[Sestak]

Is anyone else surprised we've gotten post-mortems on the "inside scoop" of how Lake, Masters, Walker et al's campaigns failed but none for Oz? We got a lot of "How fetterman won" pieces with inside info, but shockingly none (that i know of) on Oz's campaign from the inside.

I mean, everybody knows what Oz’s weaknesses as a candidate were. His campaign itself didn’t have many obvious flaws in how it did things other than stuff that relates directly to Fetterman (ie how Fetterman was able to minimize the damage from the stroke by taking advantage of Oz’s camp overreaching). There might legitimately not be that much more to say.

[wbrocks67]

Is anyone else surprised we've gotten post-mortems on the "inside scoop" of how Lake, Masters, Walker et al's campaigns failed but none for Oz? We got a lot of "How fetterman won" pieces with inside info, but shockingly none (that i know of) on Oz's campaign from the inside.

I mean, everybody knows what Oz’s weaknesses as a candidate were. His campaign itself didn’t have many obvious flaws in how it did things other than stuff that relates directly to Fetterman (ie how Fetterman was able to minimize the damage from the stroke by taking advantage of Oz’s camp overreaching). There might legitimately not be that much more to say.

I completely disagree, from their strategy to try so hard in SEPA but ignore Western PA (were they just conceding the Allegheny area completely?) to their failed tries at trying to make inroads in Philadelphia, to many of his spokes people being insanely out of touch and their offhanded remarks (the vegetable one comes to mind), there is tons of fodder for an expose of what was going on behind the scenes imo

[kwabbit]

Is anyone else surprised we've gotten post-mortems on the "inside scoop" of how Lake, Masters, Walker et al's campaigns failed but none for Oz? We got a lot of "How fetterman won" pieces with inside info, but shockingly none (that i know of) on Oz's campaign from the inside.

I mean, everybody knows what Oz’s weaknesses as a candidate were. His campaign itself didn’t have many obvious flaws in how it did things other than stuff that relates directly to Fetterman (ie how Fetterman was able to minimize the damage from the stroke by taking advantage of Oz’s camp overreaching). There might legitimately not be that much more to say.

I completely disagree, from their strategy to try so hard in SEPA but ignore Western PA (were they just conceding the Allegheny area completely?) to their failed tries at trying to make inroads in Philadelphia, to many of his spokes people being insanely out of touch and their offhanded remarks (the vegetable one comes to mind), there is tons of fodder for an expose of what was going on behind the scenes imo

It’s hard to know what would’ve worked. I don’t think Oz was campaigning wrong. If he won because he managed to keep Fetterman’s margins down in the suburbs and Philly he would’ve looked like a genius. Oz didn’t hit his winning metrics literally anywhere in the state, so it’s not like Western PA cost him. The biggest mistake was that Doug Mastriano existed. Toomey would’ve lost IMO, Shapiros won by such a huge amount.

Ignoring Western PA was a mistake though, basically conceding it to Fetterman as his home turf. Perhaps he thought fracking alone would keep the area with him, but it clearly didn’t. Shapiro actually overperformed Fetterman more in Western PA than in the East, so this makes me think it was less Senate campaign specific and more “regional vibes”.

One thing that the exit poll found was that late deciding voters did go for Oz. Looking back in retrospect it’s easy to say that the debate didn’t help Oz, but I still believe it did. He might’ve been getting crushed by 8 points before then.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs lost with Oz because of Mastriano and Shapiro not because Rs ignored the suburbs just like Vance was a weak Candidate and was pulled over by DeWine, if Eday were held today Vance would lose because of the positive media presence on Biden now but it wasn't today it was a month ago and we have to move on to Greg Landsman building him up to take on Vance in 28

It's gonna be the same in 24 with McCormick Shapiro strong performance can get Casey across the finish line even moreso with Biden back on Ballot

[wbrocks67]

Is anyone else surprised we've gotten post-mortems on the "inside scoop" of how Lake, Masters, Walker et al's campaigns failed but none for Oz? We got a lot of "How fetterman won" pieces with inside info, but shockingly none (that i know of) on Oz's campaign from the inside.

I mean, everybody knows what Oz’s weaknesses as a candidate were. His campaign itself didn’t have many obvious flaws in how it did things other than stuff that relates directly to Fetterman (ie how Fetterman was able to minimize the damage from the stroke by taking advantage of Oz’s camp overreaching). There might legitimately not be that much more to say.

I completely disagree, from their strategy to try so hard in SEPA but ignore Western PA (were they just conceding the Allegheny area completely?) to their failed tries at trying to make inroads in Philadelphia, to many of his spokes people being insanely out of touch and their offhanded remarks (the vegetable one comes to mind), there is tons of fodder for an expose of what was going on behind the scenes imo

It’s hard to know what would’ve worked. I don’t think Oz was campaigning wrong. If he won because he managed to keep Fetterman’s margins down in the suburbs and Philly he would’ve looked like a genius. Oz didn’t hit his winning metrics literally anywhere in the state, so it’s not like Western PA cost him. The biggest mistake was that Doug Mastriano existed. Toomey would’ve lost IMO, Shapiros won by such a huge amount.

Ignoring Western PA was a mistake though, basically conceding it to Fetterman as his home turf. Perhaps he thought fracking alone would keep the area with him, but it clearly didn’t. Shapiro actually overperformed Fetterman more in Western PA than in the East, so this makes me think it was less Senate campaign specific and more “regional vibes”.

One thing that the exit poll found was that late deciding voters did go for Oz. Looking back in retrospect it’s easy to say that the debate didn’t help Oz, but I still believe it did. He might’ve been getting crushed by 8 points before then.

Yeah, the Western PA thing is odd. I rarely ever saw stuff from him being over there. I doubt that helped Shaffer either in PA-17. It seemed Oz's entire campaign was laserfocused at cutting the margins enough in the Philly area and hoping that would be enough to offset what was going on in Western PA. The crazy part about it though is you could argue Mastriano was a drag, and he clearly was, but Oz's performance in the suburbs was still just incredibly pitiful. He got blown out by bigger margins in Bucks, Montco, and Delco than even Trump. Even *I* thought Oz would at least do a little better than Trump in those areas given I thought he was the low bar point (clearly Mastriano is now, though federal races run slightly different).

Oz trying to campaign thru the suburbs wasn't wrong, it was probably his best shot. But then trying to bring.... Susan Collins, Nikki Haley, and.... John Kennedy of Lousiana to the suburbs seemed just like Oz was going for a caricature of the "suburbs" circa like 1985 or something. That's the type of stuff I would love to hear about BTS. His entire appartus was clearly just out of touch, from the candidate completely down.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why did Rs win TX-23 by 17 points?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Why did Rs win TX-23 by 17 points?

Dems didn't seriously contest the seat this cycle.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why did Rs win TX-23 by 17 points?

Dems didn't seriously contest the seat this cycle.

It's gonna be contested everyone in 2024 this is high stakes 218/217DH and 51/49 D SEN and it won't be Obama just campaign in 22 Biden is back on ballot

TX is ground zero for 24 Colin ALRED or John Love and FL Sancrainte v Scott Scott only won all his races by 0.5 are the Rs the favs  in TX and FL but OH, FL, NC and TX are still battlegrounds because of minorities and MI, WI, PA, VA, AZ, GA and NV are blue Lean , Rs only one Gov race in NV and Sen race in WI but failed at Govs and Sen races in all these blue Lean states

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1601593963336839169

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1601593963336839169

It seems only appropriate that their House majority reflects the narrowness of their win of the congressional popular vote. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs have no chance to hold the H in 24 with CA and NY, CO , AZ and VA

Hakeem Jeffries already said he will be Speaker in 25 not 23 it was only that Sinema Filibuster that blocked Voting Rights

[GALeftist]

Did Hochul win NY-06? It seems plausible that she lost it with her atrocious numbers among Asians. Whatever the case may be, Grace Meng really went beast mode; a 3.7 point underperformance of Biden's 2020 margin is the third best performance of any incumbent in all of New York State, only behind Higgins and Velázquez. We're very lucky to have her in that seat lol

[Roll Roons]

Did Hochul win NY-06? It seems plausible that she lost it with her atrocious numbers among Asians. Whatever the case may be, Grace Meng really went beast mode; a 3.7 point underperformance of Biden's 2020 margin is the third best performance of any incumbent in all of New York State, only behind Higgins and Velázquez. We're very lucky to have her in that seat lol

Hochul did win it, but it was within single digits:
https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1591954194399105025

Still a very impressive overperformance by Meng.

[kwabbit]

Did Hochul win NY-06? It seems plausible that she lost it with her atrocious numbers among Asians. Whatever the case may be, Grace Meng really went beast mode; a 3.7 point underperformance of Biden's 2020 margin is the third best performance of any incumbent in all of New York State, only behind Higgins and Velázquez. We're very lucky to have her in that seat lol

While I don't think Meng would leave her seat, an open race would be interesting. Democrats have made the mistake of running White liberals in seats with large ethnic influence groups before. A White liberal Dem vs. a Chinese Republican would be intriguing.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1601593963336839169

It seems only appropriate that their House majority reflects the narrowness of their win of the congressional popular vote. 

And it was a majority only possible due to redistricting shenanigans. It's hardly a mandate.

[Gracile]

OH-SEN precinct map:

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1601342712774475777

[2016]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1601593963336839169

It seems only appropriate that their House majority reflects the narrowness of their win of the congressional popular vote. 

LOL, if the PA Congressional Map hadn't been redrawn before the 2018 Midterms Republicans would have won the House already in 2020.

[NOVA Green]

OH-SEN precinct map:

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1601342712774475777

Ouch...

Not nearly enough factory precincts for Ryan in SW-OH, not even going to get into NE-OH, let alone SE-OH.

Man.... starting to be concerned a bit about Sherrod in '24 at this point if current trends continue.