Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Here's a map showing where the parties made gains in the US House relative to 2020:

Besides New York, any major surprise states?

[Landslide Lyndon]

It's kinda strange how the media has been radio silent on the polls underestimating the Democrats this year. A quick google search will produce very few articles on the subject. After the 2016 election, the persistent narrative had been that polls have a pro-D bias that underestimates Republicans, yet this election completely smashed that notion. You'd think the "liberal media" would be talking nonstop about this. I guess they're still heartbroken that their hyped Red Wave didn't happen. *shrugs*

Polls underestimate Republicans only when Trump is on the ballot. Why that happens?
The most interesting (and plausible) theory I have read is that of kos about the "hidden deplorables".

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/11/16/1996146/-Trump-has-a-legit-superpower-and-it-s-his-hidden-deplorables

Though I wonder if the dynamic's gone the other direction--almost as a no-shame crazification-factor thing; that is, Trumpers now extra-willing to let it all hang out for pollsters, blaring out their allegiance and hoping to bump up momentum for their candidates.  Meanwhile, it's the *Dems'* turn to be shy, perhaps out of fear of violence by crazed Trumpers in their midst...

I don't think so. If anything this election proved once again that these people come out of the woodwork only for Trump himself and don't give a rat's ass about other Republican candidates even if they are essentially mini-mes of their leader.

[adma]

It's kinda strange how the media has been radio silent on the polls underestimating the Democrats this year. A quick google search will produce very few articles on the subject. After the 2016 election, the persistent narrative had been that polls have a pro-D bias that underestimates Republicans, yet this election completely smashed that notion. You'd think the "liberal media" would be talking nonstop about this. I guess they're still heartbroken that their hyped Red Wave didn't happen. *shrugs*

Polls underestimate Republicans only when Trump is on the ballot. Why that happens?
The most interesting (and plausible) theory I have read is that of kos about the "hidden deplorables".

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/11/16/1996146/-Trump-has-a-legit-superpower-and-it-s-his-hidden-deplorables

Though I wonder if the dynamic's gone the other direction--almost as a no-shame crazification-factor thing; that is, Trumpers now extra-willing to let it all hang out for pollsters, blaring out their allegiance and hoping to bump up momentum for their candidates.  Meanwhile, it's the *Dems'* turn to be shy, perhaps out of fear of violence by crazed Trumpers in their midst...

I don't think so. If anything this election proved once again that these people come out of the woodwork only for Trump himself and don't give a rat's ass about other Republican candidates even if they are essentially mini-mes of their leader.

Well, polling *underestimation* is one thing, but what about polling *overestimation*--that is, the anticipation that Lake, Finchem et al were favoured in their respective races.  (Unless that was a byproduct of polling "overcorrection", of course--preemptively pushing against past underestimation patterns, and in the process generating certain kinds of R-favourable numbers.)

[Torie]

Sean Trende, a chap I quite admire, has an interesting piece summing up the election for the House. Despite he Pub 3 to 4 point margin the the popular vote, the number of seats won were disappointing for the Pubs, not because of Dobbs (except perhaps in MI), but for the quite obvious reason that the Pubs got more votes in all the wrong places (places with lots of people of color, which flipped no seats outside the Central Valley), and tended to have  bad candidates in all the wrong places (the seats really in play).

Trump to a considerable extent really was the Dems not so secret weapon. That sentence is mine, not Trende's.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2022/11/17/what_happened_148483.html

[wbrocks67]

Pretty crazy to think that because of redistricting, Pennsylvania Dems now have a bigger share of house seats (9) than Republicans (. Not sure when the last time that was.

[wbrocks67]

I'm sensing a vibe shift back towards the democrats.

strong disagree.

Look how Democrats did in 2018 while the economy was doing very well.. they will not do well tonight.

[Mr.Phips]

Pretty crazy to think that because of redistricting, Pennsylvania Dems now have a bigger share of house seats (9) than Republicans (. Not sure when the last time that was.

From 2007-2011.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Northampton almost all in.. Oz overperforming Trump, might flip the county too.

Hahahahaha Fetterman overperformed Biden in the county.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I don't like where AZ is going on the needle - Fetterman looking great though.

Let’s be real. Governors race was always R and Senate had been slipping that way

[South Dakota Democrat]

🚨 THE NEEDLE IS NOW AT 210 DEMOCRATIC SEATS 🚨

The needle is broke. There not winning 210 seats

[South Dakota Democrat]

My exact senate prediction is currently looking likely. I had Dems winning PA, AZ, and NV, but losing GA.

I hereby replace MTtreasurer with you as my go-to "this guy is good at predictions." Congrats!

NV is longgggg gone.

AZ is gone for Gov. Not sure about Senate

[GALeftist]

Sean Trende, a chap I quite admire, has an interesting piece summing up the election for the House. Despite he Pub 3 to 4 point margin the the popular vote, the number of seats won were disappointing for the Pubs, not because of Dobbs (except perhaps in MI), but for the quite obvious reason that the Pubs got more votes in all the wrong places (places with lots of people of color, which flipped no seats outside the Central Valley), and tended to have  bad candidates in all the wrong places (the seats really in play).

Trump to a considerable extent really was the Dems not so secret weapon. That sentence is mine, not Trende's.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2022/11/17/what_happened_148483.html

I think Trende is hitting on something here that isn't completely fake. Obviously abortion wasn't voters' overriding concern, as some in the media are alleging; otherwise voters would have looked at DeWine or Kemp, for example, and seen that they were not trustworthy on the issue. I think this misses the point, though. For me, the actual point is that abortion was a valuable counterweight to stuff like crime in a way it hasn't been in the recent past. Now that we're at the point where pro-lifers are losing up-or-down referenda in places like Kentucky, I think it's very safe to say that Democrats have the public on their side in this issue. Then, you take a look at the exit polls, and what do you know, a sizable portion of the electorate was weighing that issue very heavily and that portion broke heavily for Democrats.

I think the best analogy here is the crime issue. Obviously, it would be insane to say that crime was the single reason Democrats lost the House, for example, but it would be equally insane to say it wasn't a major part of the story in critical areas like New York. The same goes for abortion. It might not have been the singular reason for Democratic relative success, but I think it would be silly to say that Democrats wouldn't have had a much worse night absent backlash to Dobbs.

[South Dakota Democrat]

DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney still trailing 45-55 to anti-choice nutcase Mike Lawler. ~70% in.

Sigh. The writing was on the wall there.

Losing a race like that makes it absolutely impossible for Dems to get anywhere near the 210 the needle is projecting

[Ferguson97]

Here's a map showing where the parties made gains in the US House relative to 2020:

Besides New York, any major surprise states?

Ohio, to a lesser extent. I don’t think anyone expected Democrats to sweep the competitive races there.

[TheReckoning]

I just KNOW it will be 218-217 in the House, 51-49 in the Senate, and 26-24 in governorships.

You just can’t make it up.

Pretty much everyone I know from my generation-- coworkers, high school friends, law students, etc-- voted this cycle. It transcended racial and socioeconomic strata. And the least cool thing you can be as a Zoomer is a pro-life Christian fundamentalist. Nick Fuentes was right: This is going to be a godless nation. And that's a good thing.

So sad how young Christians are made to feel ashamed of their faith, and how people like you are actively cheering it on.

[pantsaregood]

DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney still trailing 45-55 to anti-choice nutcase Mike Lawler. ~70% in.

Sigh. The writing was on the wall there.

Losing a race like that makes it absolutely impossible for Dems to get anywhere near the 210 the needle is projecting

Please compile these into one post I can quote while the GA runoff results come in.

[Brittain33]

I just KNOW it will be 218-217 in the House, 51-49 in the Senate, and 26-24 in governorships.

You just can’t make it up.

Pretty much everyone I know from my generation-- coworkers, high school friends, law students, etc-- voted this cycle. It transcended racial and socioeconomic strata. And the least cool thing you can be as a Zoomer is a pro-life Christian fundamentalist. Nick Fuentes was right: This is going to be a godless nation. And that's a good thing.

So sad how young Christians are made to feel ashamed of their faith, and how people like you are actively cheering it on.

I think they’re ashamed of the trashy, bigoted behavior of their grandparents’ generation which co-opts the word “faith.”

[jamestroll]

I'm sensing a vibe shift back towards the democrats.

strong disagree.

Look how Democrats did in 2018 while the economy was doing very well.. they will not do well tonight.

It was a pretty good republican year.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I'm sensing a vibe shift back towards the democrats.

strong disagree.

Look how Democrats did in 2018 while the economy was doing very well.. they will not do well tonight.

It was a pretty good republican year.

2018? Not really. They lost 40 seats in the house and 7 governorships, and they lost the NPV by nearly 10 million. They only did well in the Senate because they won a bunch of Dem-held solid red states like Indiana and North Dakota. They lost in every tossup state, minus Florida.

[Spectator]

My cold take is that 2022 was better for Dems than 2018 was on about every level.

[Holmes]

My cold take is that 2022 was better for Dems than 2018 was on about every level.

Except the House.

[Annatar]

In terms of adjusting for uncontested seats, these are my estimates, the 12 democratic held seats GOP did not contest voted for Biden by a 56.7% margin in the aggregate in their new lines, the 23 GOP held seats that were not contested voted for Trump by 26.4%.

Now we have to adjust for turnout plus margin swing, since turnout dropped more among hispanic and black voters which make up large parts of the voters in the dem seats than non college whites which make up the main voting bloc in the GOP seats, turnout would have been lower in the democratic controlled seats. Based off turnout in similar seats, turnout in the GOP seats should have been around 254k vs 220k in the dem seats, around 15% more.

In terms of margin swing, seats demographically similar to the dem held ones saw 6% - 9% swings generally, would indicate dems would have carried those 12 seats by around 49% roughly. 


GOP controlled ones saw around 6 - 8% in similar seats, would suggest a rough 33% margin among those 23 seats.

In total, the change in the popular vote margin would have been around 530k, more accurately one should view this as range from around 450k to 610k, so if all seats were contested, the Dems would have done 0.5% better in the house vote, the margin of Republican victory would have been 2.5% instead of 3%.

[jamestroll]

I'm sensing a vibe shift back towards the democrats.

strong disagree.

Look how Democrats did in 2018 while the economy was doing very well.. they will not do well tonight.

It was a pretty good republican year.

2018? Not really. They lost 40 seats in the house and 7 governorships. They only did well in the Senate because they won a bunch of Dem-held solid red states like Indiana and North Dakota. They lost in every tossup state, minus Florida.

No, I mean 2022 was a pretty Republican year even with an under performance.

2018 was a Democratic over performance if anything really.

[South Dakota Democrat]

DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney still trailing 45-55 to anti-choice nutcase Mike Lawler. ~70% in.

Sigh. The writing was on the wall there.

Losing a race like that makes it absolutely impossible for Dems to get anywhere near the 210 the needle is projecting

Please compile these into one post I can quote while the GA runoff results come in.

No thank you.

[Dani Rose]

My cold take is that 2022 was better for Dems than 2018 was on about every level.

I've always considered 2018 to be a poisoned chalice in at least one way, because - while taking the House was a victory - the Senate losses we suffered are still biting us even now. This time, though, we have a serious chance at a functioning trifecta if 2024 is as blue as I expect it to be, and we also finally did something major to fix the age problem in our presidential bench.