UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[brucejoel99]

💀

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1576941908806418432

How could the parliamentary Tories appoint a PM though? Wouldn't have to totally reform the Party bylaws? Or is that easier than I'm thinking it is?

Currently, they can't, as the requirement that (at least) the top-2 candidates go through to a rank-&-file membership vote is a provision of the Tory constitution, which is hard af to amend (1/3rd of senior party activists & 1/3rd of MPs each hold a de-facto veto), so the only way rn for a leadership contest to not go through to the membership will be if it's uncontested.

The 1922 Committee were able to set a nomination threshold, though, so perhaps they just set it so high that they think exactly one candidate will be able to make it.

If the system were the same as in July, I fear that you know who would be favoured to make a comeback.  However, at the moment Sunak is second favourite (after Starmer) to be next PM with the bookies.

The 1922 had the power to set a nomination threshold for its own internal purpose of selecting who the top-2 are, but they still had to select (at least) those 2 because the Tory constitution mandates "a choice of candidates."

So, say Truss is forced to step down, & 356/357 Tory MPs support Rishi to calm the markets, but that 1 leftover MP is BoJo mounting a comeback campaign; even then, it'd still be "the duty of the 1922 Committee to present to the Party, as soon as reasonably practicable, a choice of candidates for election as Leader."

[CumbrianLefty]

I'm starting to think Truss will probably be axed soon, at least before the end of 2023. If they have a full leadership election I think Badenoch is the heavy favorite, but an MP vote probably goes to Mordaunt (?) or (God forbid) BoJo 2.0

MPs only might well go for Sunak, if only on a "told you so" basis.

[Blair]

The very funny thing is that the wheels keep falling off- Nadine Dorries calling for an election, Kwasi u-turning on his budget date again after u-turning and the cabinet in open revolt over the welfare cuts.

This is mental and would have been weird even for the last few months of Boris… I don’t think 1994-97 was this bad??

[TheTide]

Kwarteng has pointed to the death of the Queen as the reason for why his budget was so bad. They're actively trying to implode aren't they?

[brucejoel99]

The very funny thing is that the wheels keep falling off- Nadine Dorries calling for an election, Kwasi u-turning on his budget date again after u-turning and the cabinet in open revolt over the welfare cuts.

This is mental and would have been weird even for the last few months of Boris… I don’t think 1994-97 was this bad??

2022-24 appears to be the UK finally getting the 1995-97 that would've happened if Redwood could hold Major below 215.

[Lechasseur]

What's the point of the Truss premiership at this point? Her policy agenda is being shredded. If she were a reassuring and likeable John Major figure then that would be something she'd have going for her, but she isn't.

Agreed

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Kwarteng has pointed to the death of the Queen as the reason for why his budget was so bad. They're actively trying to implode aren't they?

Well, vassal opinion is suffering from that -20 short reign penalty, always rough when the new monarch takes over.

[YL]

The very funny thing is that the wheels keep falling off- Nadine Dorries calling for an election, Kwasi u-turning on his budget date again after u-turning and the cabinet in open revolt over the welfare cuts.

This is mental and would have been weird even for the last few months of Boris… I don’t think 1994-97 was this bad??

Kwarteng has pointed to the death of the Queen as the reason for why his budget was so bad. They're actively trying to implode aren't they?

Also:
https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1577228767491395584

I think the word is "omnishambles".  Or is that not strong enough?

[Torrain]

Kwarteng has pointed to the death of the Queen as the reason for why his budget was so bad. They're actively trying to implode aren't they?

That’s such a simple miscalculation that it could be a GCSE maths question:
If a man with a 7% approval rating blames the death of a woman with a 78% approval rating for his own mistakes, how many points will he lose in the polls?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Seems like Truss will need to dump Kwarteng to save herself, but if she does it's shredding her agenda anyway.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1577327686430511104

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Kwarteng has pointed to the death of the Queen as the reason for why his budget was so bad. They're actively trying to implode aren't they?

[Crumpets]

Yes... Ha ha ha YES!

[Sestak]

Just to be clear, if over 2/3 of the Conservative party favored some consensus choice for PM, could they conspire to have that MP make the top two along with a controlled second choice who could immediately withdraw like Leadsom did in 2016?

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/TheNewsAgents/status/1577341771004231687
It's wholly unclear whether he has the votes to back this threat up. But the fact that he can say that on the day before Truss gives her conference speech, where she was supposed to reaunch her premiership, and it's not even the worst news-story of the day (see the R&W poll, and the u-turn on the date of the medium-term economic statement), gives you a sense of just how far this week has gone down the rabbit hole.

[TheTide]

To be fair, Kwarteng was clearly devastated by the Queen's death, as these caps from the funeral show.

[brucejoel99]

Just to be clear, if over 2/3 of the Conservative party favored some consensus choice for PM, could they conspire to have that MP make the top two along with a controlled second choice who could immediately withdraw like Leadsom did in 2016?

Oh, the rules definitely enable them to do that, yeah.

[mileslunn]

Obviously Truss will lead Tories over cliff edge if she remains leader so to have any chance of winning, need change in leader.  But do people here think Tories have even an outside chance of winning with a new leader or are they finished?  It is almost feeling like people have decide they are ready for a Labour government.

[Joe Republic]

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1577327686430511104

What does the projected constituency map look like now?  😂😂

[afleitch]

Labour up 23 points since 2019 and Tories down 24 points. That's compared to 19 points and and 21 points in their national poll.

So a larger swing in the marginals, which is something that tends to happen in national elections.

[kyc0705]

Kwarteng has pointed to the death of the Queen as the reason for why his budget was so bad. They're actively trying to implode aren't they?

This is (by far and wholly by accident) the most openly antagonistic thing any major UK politician has said about the Queen's death.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1577327686430511104

What does the projected constituency map look like now?  😂😂

It’s not good for the incumbents, put it that way…

I don’t have a graphic, but on a universal swing, Labour take all 40 red-wall seats, with majorities between 17-47% (!), according to the chap who runs the tool.

While some of the red-wall MPs are true believers (Lee Anderson, Jonathan Gullis, Brendan Clarke-Smith), I wonder whether we might see that group a little more ideologically flexible in the coming months. Trussonomics will end some/most/all of their careers if things don’t change quickly, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they throw the odd spanner into the works…

[Pericles]

We might even see another Christian Wakeford at this rate.

[WD]

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1577327686430511104

What does the projected constituency map look like now?  😂😂

Using the Electoral Calculus swingometer, a simple, unweighted average of the last 10 polls listed on Wikipedia has the Tories getting 37 seats.

No way in hell it ends up that extreme, but under 150 is probably plausible.