2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Charlie Cook was on MSNBC and seemed very confident about Biden winning.

How confident were they back in 2016?

I would also like to know. Anyone have any idea?

[philly09]

Ohio passes 3 Million Votes.

[Non Swing Voter]

Charlie Cook was on MSNBC and seemed very confident about Biden winning.

How confident were they back in 2016?

I would also like to know. Anyone have any idea?

He literally was on there saying "stick a fork in it" the race is done for Hillary in 2016...

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/PaulBegala/status/1323466524213059585

Is the data he's citing TargetSmart modeling? Because...

Edit: Oh, Tom Bonier is the TargetSmart CEO.

I've noticed that Asian turnout is up big over 2016 everywhere.  Could have a big impact in Georgia.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/PaulBegala/status/1323466524213059585

Is the data he's citing TargetSmart modeling? Because...

Edit: Oh, Tom Bonier is the TargetSmart CEO.

I've noticed that Asian turnout is up big over 2016 everywhere.  Could have a big impact in Georgia.

Hopefully that is a good thing for Dems. Probably would be if they are younger/Not-Vietnamese. If Asians turning out is a factor in a Biden win, I will be so happy.

[philly09]

Charlie Cook was on MSNBC and seemed very confident about Biden winning.

How confident were they back in 2016?

I would also like to know. Anyone have any idea?

He literally was on there saying "stick a fork in it" the race is done for Hillary in 2016...

Meaning Hillary was going to win? Or "Stick a fork in it" because Hillary is screwed?

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/PaulBegala/status/1323466524213059585

F*** it. I’ll take one last minute ticket for the Blue Texas Club.

[NOVA Green]

OREGON- 11/2/20 AM UPDATE (Day 12 of Full Reports)

We will possibly have another update Tomorrow, and then of course final numbers probably not posted until 11/4/20 or later, since ballots need to be received by 8 PM by Official Elections Locations to be valid (and are updated later).

I would not be surprised to see another 400,000 to 500,000 Total Votes added to the Totals once all is done and counted, since usually the last couple days of the Election typically have the highest daily return numbers.


Cumulative TOT Ballots Received: 1,806,172 (98.4% of 2016 TOTAL PRES).     +8.2% Daily Jump
                                                                 (66.8%) of 2020 TOTAL RV)         +5.6% Daily Jump

Before provide the Daily Update, here are the links to my previous daily updates in this thread, for anyone who might be interested in tracking.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7670571#msg7670571

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7674522#msg7674522

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7678893#msg7678893

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7682160#msg7682160

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=407463.msg7693065#msg7693065

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=407463.msg7696894#msg7696894

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=407463.msg7700901#msg7700901

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=407463.msg7704899#msg7704899

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=407463.msg7708063#msg7708063

Again, I will try to avoid cluttering the thread in too much detail with County level coverage, but rather focus primarily on the top-line numbers and route some of the county-level granularity elsewhere, and perhaps occasionally call out interesting trends in certain places, and possibly provide another update in the OR 2020 State Megathread in the US-SEN & Congressional Board.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=393352.msg7715913#msg7715913

11/2/20 AM OR RAW CUMULATIVE VOTE CHART BY PARTY REG:



11/2/20 AM OR RAW CUMULATIVE VOTE CHART % BY PARTY REG:



11/2/20 AM Update: Total Cumulative % Turnout by Partisan Registration:



Total Ballots Yet to be Received by Political Registration 11/2/20 AM:



Daily votes batch from 10/30/20 AM to 11/2 /AM reporting:



Daily Update from a % Chart by Party Registration:



I will avoid commenting on these numbers in detail Tonight but a few brief parting comments:

1.) PUBs beat the DEMs for the third day in total raw votes with a new +3.2k Pub Daily Raw Margin, which barely scratches the record +280k D CUM Lead from 10/28/20.

2.) MISC (NAV /3rd Party Voters) continue the lead over both REG DEM & PUBs for the 3rd Daily Ballot Count in a row, with a new daily record 35.9% of the Daily Vote Share.

3.) We will likely continue to see NAV / 3rd Party Vote Share increase, and I would not be surprised to see DEM Raw Daily Votes exceed PUB Raw Votes over the final few batches.

4.) Although naturally OR is not competitive in either the PRES or US-SEN elections, there are other down-ballot races of interest and DEMs performed extremely well in the '18 Midterms in State House and State Senate Elections, so I would not be surprised to see additional pickups in 2020 (With a district that includes Bend at the top of my list).

5.) In particular, not only to I believe that DeFazio will win CD-04 by decent margins, and am not seeing any major warning signs with DEMs currently leading with about 164k D ballots cast and 141k PUB ballots cast and 119k NAV / 3rd Party Votes cast within all of the Counties in the District.

This actually overstates Skarlotos' numbers once you extract Grants Pass from the Josephine County numbers, and roughly 50% of the NAV voters cast thus far are in the heavily DEM strongholds of Lane and Benton County, where quite a few College Students and similar types tend to disproportionately jack up NAV numbers.

6.) Again, the key thing to watch in OR will be the dramatic surge in NAV voters added to the rolls since AVR through the DMV in the First PRES Election since.... so we'll see what happens folx!

[SLA8]

How does this compare to 2016 in Oregon?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

omg CNN, f#cking fill in Dixville and Millsfield already smfh

[NOVA Green]

How does this compare to 2016 in Oregon?

In which way?

I mean we could look at Total RVs by Partisan Affiliation from '16 to '18.

If we look at the RV by Party REG around each of the GEs from '16, '18, and final '20 we see something like the following:





I don't have the final Turnout (TO) numbers at my fingertips for '16 by Party, although I do have some '18 GE TO numbers by Party / Day / County.  (Had a Laptop that went down in between '16 and '18 numbers that might have had some data that I haven't migrated over, but suspect I was downloading daily updates at the time).

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1323451724825329664

I do trust Bob Casey, that man knows what he is talking about when it comes to PA elections

[BlueSwan]

100 pages and basically 100 million early votes. How fitting!

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

100 pages and basically 100 million early votes. How fitting!

I think a bunch of pages disappeared a few days ago as well. Not sure what happened.

[Stuart98]

100 pages and basically 100 million early votes. How fitting!

I think a bunch of pages disappeared a few days ago as well. Not sure what happened.

The thread was split in half because it had grown too large, the first post of this one has a link to the old one.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1323459988321456129

[BlueSwan]

100 pages and basically 100 million early votes. How fitting!

I think a bunch of pages disappeared a few days ago as well. Not sure what happened.

Page suppression!

[Tender Branson]

In CO, turnout is up a lot among those aged 65+

Link

But so far lower than in 2016 among those younger than 65.

[NOVA Green]

Montana EV Update- 11/2/20 PM:

Once again not tons of sex appeal and glamor on Atlas, while once again sweaty dogs are tripping about tons of other places on "Election Eve" (At least technically still so on the "Left Coast".)

Still, we have a State with not only (4) US-PRES Electoral Votes, (1) US-SEN Seat, (1) Gubernatorial Election, and (1) US-House Election, in a State which really is not a place where we really have much major recent polling history, plus was within 2% points in '08 at the PRES Level, and frequently votes for DEM and PUB SEN/GOVs / US REPs alike.



So here are the latest TO numbers by County:

I will start with explaining the Color Coding by County on the Left. It uses Atlas shading based upon the '08 PRES Election numbers, and NOT MT-SEN or MT-GOV numbers.

Additionally, I have attempted to Color Code Turnout by Date by Requested Ballots returned and Total Ballot Returned.

The Color shading is a bit arbitrary here, but essentially for "Ballots Requested / Returned" used a Less than 5% of Statewide AVG as a "Low Return County" (Bright Yellow) and anything less than 2% of Statewide AVG Return Rates (Peach) as a "Lower Return County", and anything over 5% of Statewide AVG Return Rates (Dark Green) and anything above 2% as (Pea Green).

For purposes of Total Ballots returned as % of RV, I slightly modified the Color Coding, but still went with the + / - 5% Ballot returned by County as Dark Green or Bright Yellow.

For Granularity, I extended the numbers slightly so any county +/- 3% over Statewide Averages would have either the "Peach" or "Pea Green Color" Cell coloration.









WTF Does All this Mean???

1.) Not an expert in Montana Close Elections, so apologies if I am totally off-base, and someone with a greater level of expertise can and should please jump in.

2.) 73% of Registered Voters (As of 11/02/20 PM) are located within the following Counties:



3.) Overall these numbers appear to be generally positive to Democrats within the largest perhaps the exception of Ravalli County.

4.) Flathead County Numbers appear to be curiously low for Turnout this Far, which may or may not represent a Senior rejection of Trump in the era of COVID-19 in a County right next door to the Canadian Border.

5.) I strongly suspect that Gallatin County will pull through, and that part of the discrepancy is with same day REG, this is adding some of the largest number of new ballots of virtually any other county in MT, where folks not gonna be risking the mail service to get their vote Counted.

6.) Yellowstone County (Metro Billings) is naturally Ground Zero, and DEMs keep adding new voters literally by the Day.

DEMs gonna flip MT, def gotta play well in Billings and Yellowstone County:

So a bit of work I did a few Months back...

Montana:

#1 Billings: Should be the obvious answer, but in the era where Trump might end up losing the PV by 8-10% essentially makes it a bit of an odds bet...

Still, gets a bit tricky once we roll into the Zone...

Tried to roll the precinct numbers from '16 and came out something like this in terms of raw vote:



Yellowstone County changed precinct lines in 2013, so although possible haven't attempted to run '08 or '12 compare and contrast numbers, still trying to roll the '16 precinct numbers by %:



For anyone looking at the Write-In numbers, they appear to be overwhelmingly Sanders with McMullin accounting for a relatively small chunk of the WI vote-share county wide.

Trump at only 51.3% in '16 in Billings MT, makes Cheyenne WY look like an extreme-right stronghold...

Not predicting a Biden '20 flip even in a +10% Ntl Biden win, but it certainly moves us into that "down-ballot bump" for MT-SEN and MT-GOV in a quirky State...

3rd Party Votes in Billings MT in '16 are likely overwhelmingly DEM voters in '20....

Not an expert on MT, but figured I would toss at least the '16 GE PRES numbers out there, since unfortunately not able to easily run a compare/contrast (Although certainly there are items out there which would likely be able to present the data, but recently got off work, so not really invested the time on this item yet).

So--- I decided to rerun a few numbers from 2016 PRES, even after adding in the Write-In Vote raw numbers and % to attempt to match against current precinct boundaries posted on the Yellowstone County website.

https://maps.co.yellowstone.mt.gov/mapping/index.html



It appears that either my 2017 report on Billings confirmed precinct vote was either "fake news", or maybe a few precincts shifted around and split precincts muddied the waters a few % points on the margins...

Naturally we need to re-examine the actual precinct level results from Billings, Montana in 2016 and include a mixture of clear precincts within the City Limits vs the split-precincts...



If we aggregate both the Split and Non-Splits we get something like 70% of the Yellowstone County Vote Share.

Now what does the % of the Vote look line in Billings by Split Precinct / Non-Split Precinct and Total?



So parsing the Split-Precincts could easily become an exercise looking pop density and census tracts to try to create a % modelling and estimated distribution of City Nov '16 vs present maps etc...

Still, the overall assumption is that even with split-precincts that voters outside of Billings City Limits would generally tend to be more Republican (based upon '16 County Precinct numbers), so at a maximum Trump won Billings [(53.6% (R) vs 35.2% (D)] and at minimum Trump won Billings [51.4% (R) vs 37.1% (D).

Okay-- so billings split combined with non-split Billings precincts had some 49k GE PRES voters in '16...

I tried to run the numbers from the 2008 GE PRES Precincts based upon the next Mayoral Election:

https://www.co.yellowstone.mt.gov/elections/results/Archives/Precinct_Nov2009.htm

2008 GE "Billings '09 Mayoral Precincts"   (Haven't run a % of '08 vs '09 precincts yet or done Excel db style power queries---)



Okay--- did that blow your eyeballs out trying to read the skinny font?

So basically--- we got a ton of precincts in Billings in '08 that went:

Obama '08:   25,540 Votes (47.2%)
McCain '08:   27,119 Votes (50.2%%)
TOTAL '08:    54,066

Billings, Montana will be an interesting case-study...

O'bama almost won it in '08, and currently Biden is out-performing in Ntl Polls vs Obama '08 % numbers...

Atlas Hive or Independent Thoughts???

[Tender Branson]

Pro-tip for NOVA Green:

If you save your charts/pictures as .png instead of .jpeg, the red shades will not be so blurry on your posted images.

[NOVA Green]

Also, Native American parts of Montana are well under-performing thus far, and some of the "Cow Counties" appear to be running behind as well....

DEM's need to perform well in Rurals to Counter PUB Rurals to make a winning 50% +1 lead...

Apologies for neglecting that in my previous post.   

[philly09]

Also, Native American parts of Montana are well under-performing thus far, and some of the "Cow Counties" appear to be running behind as well....

DEM's need to perform well in Rurals to Counter PUB Rurals to make a winning 50% +1 lead...

Apologies for neglecting that in my previous post.   

Well, MT surpassed its 2016 total earlier today, so there will be higher turnout.

[NOVA Green]

Pro-tip for NOVA Green:

If you save your charts/pictures as .png instead of .jpeg, the red shades will not be so blurry on your posted images.

Thx Tender!

I Remember back in the days when I spent a bunch of time working with AutoCAD files to convert to Image files, and one of the "CAD Jockeys" who was at that point directly reported to me kept pressing the .png vs .jpeg file format for certain image resolution when trying to consolidate multiple floorplans of all places from the Factory Floors to the Office Spaces....

Gotten lazy in my "Old Man Years", and although I haven't really played around with them on Atlas much, will def take this as a "Pro-Tip".

You Kool with me Tender, whatever everyone else says, plus spent enough time in Germany (As well as Europe) back in the '90s, so perhaps maybe understand some of your perspectives in means that most Atlas American Citizen avatars do not.

[Tender Branson]

101 million people have now voted, according to the JMC guy.

[NOVA Green]

In CO, turnout is up a lot among those aged 65+

Link

But so far lower than in 2016 among those younger than 65.

A lot of Younger Voters (35 or less) typically tend to vote at the last minute in heavily VBM States in the West (WA,OR,CA,UT,AZ,CO,AK,MT) etc....

I would not trip too much about CO at this moment, although in some ways there are places in CO while geographically might appear more similar to Austria or Bavaria, but demographically the terrain is always in the Cities in the Mountain West of the USA vs the Rurals...

Older Turnout is always higher.... my OR updates for '20 again show the highest TO levels among older Anglos in the OR Coast, where it strongly appears that Biden will likely flip all of the Cities from Warrenton way down to Brookings, with a few rural gaps in the interim...

West Coast White Seniors flipping hard Biden on the OR Coast....