2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[roxas11]

I'm just going to blunt, I honestly don't care if Biden wins FL or not because far as I'm concerned Florida has already served its main purpose

Keeping Trump spending as much money as possible while preventing him from using that cash in other swing states.

The midwestern states is what I really care about and if we were seeing bad numbers in those states than I would be worried, but as it stands I can care less about FL staying on the Trump train as long as The Dems take back Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in the end

Now If Biden ends up winning FL cool but I'm not going to lose any sleep over it if he does not...

Dems had this same outlook in the Rust Belt in 2016.

No, they did not and that was one of the reasons why they lost the Rust Belt in the first place

Hillary and Most of the Dems thought they had those states in the Bag and they did not put a huge amount of time, money, or resources into winning any of them. In fact Trump was lucky back than Because he had those states all to himself and the Dems thought he wasting his time

Biden and the Dems are not are not underestimating Trump in the midwest this time around  and they are spending way more on those 3 states in 2020 than they ever did in 2016

[South Dakota Democrat]

I'm just going to blunt, I honestly don't care if Biden wins FL or not because far as I'm concerned Florida has already served its main purpose

Keeping Trump spending as much money as possible while preventing him from using that cash in other swing states.

The midwestern states is what I really care about and if we were seeing bad numbers in those states than I would be worried, but as it stands I can care less about FL staying on the Trump train as long as The Dems take back Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in the end

Now If Biden ends up winning FL cool but I'm not going to lose any sleep over it if he does not...

Yeah, sorry, but no, this is a very bad outlook to have.

While Biden may still become president if the election isn't decided on election night (emphasis on may), I do not want to take that chance, and it would be much better if Biden had Florida.

It took the networks until nearly 11:00 to call FL for Obama in 2012, so either way you're not getting a quick call on Tuesday.

I will say that I thought Obama was going to lose Florida to Romney as the votes started to come in, but as CNN said, they underestimated the strength of the Hispanic vote.

Obama had a narrow, but stubbornly consistent lead for most of the night.  While they couldn't officially project it because of a potential for the margin to trigger a recount, it was pretty clear for quite awhile that Obama would carry the state, especially since most of the outstanding vote came from Broward.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I'm just going to blunt, I honestly don't care if Biden wins FL or not because far as I'm concerned Florida has already served its main purpose

Keeping Trump spending as much money as possible while preventing him from using that cash in other swing states.

The midwestern states is what I really care about and if we were seeing bad numbers in those states than I would be worried, but as it stands I can care less about FL staying on the Trump train as long as The Dems take back Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in the end

Now If Biden ends up winning FL cool but I'm not going to lose any sleep over it if he does not...

Yeah, sorry, but no, this is a very bad outlook to have.

While Biden may still become president if the election isn't decided on election night (emphasis on may), I do not want to take that chance, and it would be much better if Biden had Florida.

You may not like my outlook, but here is the harsh reality

During 2018 midterms Florida showed all of us just out of step with the rest of the county they were and The GOP ended up doing well, there despite the fact that they were getting crushed everywhere else

you are kidding yourself if you don't think the same thing can happen again in this election
People need to wake up and realize that any Dem who is betting their political future on the idea that FL is going to save them will end up looking just as foolish as Al gore and Andrew Gillum did on election day lol

Dems might not need it to get to 270, and I don't think anyone is pinning their hopes on it in that regard.  But to say it doesn't matter is simply silly.  It would go a long way toward reducing the GOP's ability to cry foul about the election.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

https://twitter.com/CA_120/status/1322064555934064640?s=20

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/CA_120/status/1322064555934064640?s=20

Am I wrong or are those horrendous numbers for Republicans?

[Adam Griffin]

I'm an old, so I remember Election Night 2012 and while it has been awhile since it happened...virtually no media outlets called FL on Election Night? It was literally the last state to be called; it was 303-206 until sometime Wednesday, when FL was finally called for Obama by some outlets.

EDIT: just checked the Atlas timeline, and no call for Florida prior to noon on Wednesday: https://uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/ARTICLES/ElectionNight2012/pe2012elecnighttime.php

USA Today didn't have a call on Florida published until Saturday: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2012/11/10/florida-vote-count-obama-romney/1696343/

[Tender Branson]

Found this in the 2016 thread, about five days before the election on Nov 2:

Total Ballots cast: 4,466,624

Total Vote By Mail: 2,168,750(51.4%)
Total Early Vote: 2,297,874 (48.6%)

Republicans: 1,798,954 (40.3%)
Democrats: 1,781,498 (39.9%)
NPA: 886,172 (19.8%)

Total Margin: GOP +0.39%

According to here: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

Democrats 2,992,000 40.5
Republicans 2,787,723 37.7
Minor 95,904 1.3
No Party Affiliation 1,510,040 20.4

2016: R+0.39
2020: D+2.8

2016: 17k R advantage
2020: 215k D advangate

2016 vote: R+1.19 (about 0.8% better than their early vote lead), or about 112k votes (95k better than early vote lead.)

Edit: Thank you to whoever posted the early vote tracker weeks ago, I've gotten quite a lot of use out of it regarding early vote and keeping tabs on mail ballots.

A 215k D vote advantage could easily turn into a 2016-style R vote lead considering all that is left on election day.

If 2 million additional voters are voting on Tuesday in FL and they break 70-30 Republican, Republicans would net 800k votes on election day.

A 215k D advantage would turn into a 600k R lead ...

[NOVA Green]

OREGON- 10/29/20 AM UPDATE (Day 9 of Full Reports)


Cumulative TOT Ballots Received: 1,695,010 (84.7% of 2016 TOTAL PRES).     +7.7% Daily Jump
                                                                 (57.4%% of 2020 TOTAL RV)       +5.1% Daily Jump

Before provide the Daily Update, here are the links to my previous daily updates in this thread, for anyone who might be interested in tracking.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7670571#msg7670571

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7674522#msg7674522

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7678893#msg7678893

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7682160#msg7682160

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=407463.msg7693065#msg7693065

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=407463.msg7696894#msg7696894

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=407463.msg7700901#msg7700901

Again, I will try to avoid cluttering the thread in too much detail with County level coverage, but rather focus primarily on the top-line numbers and route some of the county-level granularity elsewhere, and perhaps occasionally call out interesting trends in certain places, and possibly provide another update in the OR 2020 State Megathread in the US-SEN & Congressional Board.

10/29/20 AM OR RAW CUMULATIVE VOTE CHART BY PARTY REG:



10/29/20 AM OR RAW CUMULATIVE VOTE CHART % BY PARTY REG:



10/29/20 AM Update: Total Cumulative % Turnout by Partisan Registration:



Total Ballots Yet to be Received by Political Registration 10/29/20 AM:



Daily votes batch from 10/28/20 AM to 10/29/AM reporting:



Daily Update from a % Chart by Party Registration:



I will avoid commenting on these numbers in detail Tonight but a few brief parting comments:

1.) PUBs beat the DEMs for the first time in total raw votes with a new +267 R Ballot.

2.) MISC (NAV /3rd Party Voters) actually take the lead among both REG DEM & PUBs for the first time in the Daily Ballot Count.

3.) This trend will likely continue, assuming a high TO election in OR (Which appears to be the case not only on the National level, but also Statewide).

4.) Although naturally OR is not competitive in either the PRES or US-SEN elections, there are other down-ballot races of interest.

5.) In particular, not only to I believe that DeFazio will win CD-04 by decent margins, I am interested in how poorly the PUB will perform in CD-02, considering numbers from Deschutes and Jackson Counties.

6.) I would not be surprised if PUBs continue to narrowly out-perform DEMs in RAW Votes and % TO Tomorrow, but at the same time Late Breaking DEMs and NAVs typically tend to surge over the ED Weekend, so Monday and Tuesday numbers should be interesting and illustrative of where the votes are breaking down not only Statewide, but perhaps more significantly in various local elections throughout the state such as HD and SD Elections...

[Blair]

I feel like I'm venting because of the politico article here but even I'm getting sick of the constant briefing from South Florida Democratic officals who seem to forget that they have power & agency of this!

While the Texas Democratic Party has been phone-banking what something like 2+ million voters all the Miami-Dade elected officals seem to do is bitch about not being allowled to door knock in a pandemic. I just get annoyed when there's so many good state parties out there who just seem to get on with the work even when theye're losing.

[Hammy]

If Biden ends up losing and Florida ends up being the state that could've gotten him elected, the Florida Dem Party needs to be disbanded.

[Blair]

I should preface this by saying I'm not an expert on Florida Politics but the two things that seems to be ignored is...

1.) The polling shows a huge shift among 65+ voters. I don't know how this shows up in the early vote ID (are these registered republicans or NPA 65+ voters who are flipping?)

2.) The number of independents/NPA or registered republicans who are voting for Biden; I feel like there could be such an intense focus on Florida hispanics that people ignore the rest of the state.

On the final point it does seem to generally be a flaw for any state party which will only win if they can turn out an electorate where part of it is extremely political engaged & fickle (Cuban-Americans) & where the other part is harder to turn out (non Cuban-hispanics)

It seems like a complete repeat of 2016 where the entire Clinton operation & the whole of Atlas/Political twitter focused on the large swings in Miami-Dade but ignored the even larger swings among independent & white voters outside of Miami-Dade.

Am I right in saying that this is currently only a Miami-Dade problem and the other south democratic counties like Broward & Palm Beach are doing okay?

[philly09]

I should preface this by saying I'm not an expert on Florida Politics but the two things that seems to be ignored is...

1.) The polling shows a huge shift among 65+ voters. I don't know how this shows up in the early vote ID (are these registered republicans or NPA 65+ voters who are flipping?)

2.) The number of independents/NPA or registered republicans who are voting for Biden; I feel like there could be such an intense focus on Florida hispanics that people ignore the rest of the state.

On the final point it does seem to generally be a flaw for any state party which will only win if they can turn out an electorate where part of it is extremely political engaged & fickle (Cuban-Americans) & where the other part is harder to turn out (non Cuban-hispanics)

It seems like a complete repeat of 2016 where the entire Clinton operation & the whole of Atlas/Political twitter focused on the large swings in Miami-Dade but ignored the even larger swings among independent & white voters outside of Miami-Dade.

Am I right in saying that this is currently only a Miami-Dade problem and the other south democratic counties like Broward & Palm Beach are doing okay?

Broward County is on fire in terms of turnout.

[NOVA Green]

I'm an old, so I remember Election Night 2012 and while it has been awhile since it happened...virtually no media outlets called FL on Election Night? It was literally the last state to be called; it was 303-206 until sometime Wednesday, when FL was finally called for Obama by some outlets.

EDIT: just checked the Atlas timeline, and no call for Florida prior to noon on Wednesday: https://uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/ARTICLES/ElectionNight2012/pe2012elecnighttime.php

USA Today didn't have a call on Florida published until Saturday: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2012/11/10/florida-vote-count-obama-romney/1696343/

I am so old I remember the '88 PRES Election watching the Early Results at our local DEM Party HQ when I was in HS.

I am so old I remember watching the '00 PRES Election, where Florida is flipping back and forth like a wet whore in bed, taking the results from the highest bidder.

There are plenty of posters on Atlas who remember how we got collectively cheated election after election, while the "Moderate Republicans" rammed austerity based economic policies, while simultaneously hiding behind their "Evangelical Cloaks", while meanwhile gutting Richard Nixon Environmental Regulation Policies, and then trying to ram that s**t down our throats before they create a massive War in the Middle East under Bush Jr...

We remember, and will never forget the failed incompetence of the Republican-Democratic Neo-Liberal agenda, which has consistently screwed over American Workers, the Environment, prevented equality for LGBTQ Americans, and caused massive wars overseas because of those in the pawns of the Vulcans.

First Democrat I ever voted for PRES was John Kerry (Not Clinton '92/96 or Gore '00).

Still consider myself an Obama Democrat despite significant differences when it comes to pushing certain items to the Left.

Fine with Biden, despite being a 2x Sanders supporter (and backing him with $$$ as a Middle Class dude trying to keep the rent paid and head above water, while the American Dream is fading for everyone under the collective Nightmare known as the Trump PRES where the Swamp is being drained from the top up as part of one of the most corrupt PRES Administrations in Modern US History.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322029481524121600

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322030330216357892

[wbrocks67]

Not gonna lie, the number of unreturned ballots in states like PA, WI, and FL is unsettling.

PA was nearly at 70% return rate statewide yesterday. And we still have 4-5 days left for ballots to get there or be dropped off at drop boxes. I would imagine nearly 90% are returned by election day. How is that unsettling?

[wbrocks67]

Why are Democrats freaking out so much about turnout in Miami Dade specifically?  The turnout doesn't look way out of whack.  Though the Republican turnout looks a bit elevated there.

Well, they are running out of time. Miami-Dade is up to 808,524 votes, a little over a 150,000 votes away from their total 2016 total. Maybe the NPAs are stronger?

This seems like a major thing that people aren't really paying attention to. They're just assuming that NPA are going to vote the same as 2016 or something. If Dems end up with a lead in party ID than I'd think that's very good for them - since Indies appear to really be leaning Biden this time. But people keep ignoring NPAs and just going off of D/R

[wbrocks67]

Wait, so in ballots returned 5 days out in 2016 in FL, when it was only 4.4 million, Rs had a +0.39% lead? And now in 2020, with 7-8 million votes cast early, Ds have a +2/3% lead - and people are freaking out? Huh?

We're going to have 8 million votes cast by the end, and it's increasingly looking like Ds will maintain an edge. That's with major cannibalization. And NPAs likely breaking Biden. FL actually kinda looks better than I might have assumed, I was scared that Rs may take over by the end, but it doesn't appear that will happen.

[wbrocks67]

Was curious about NV. Day before election, the EV was 629K, with Ds at 41.4% (261K) and Rs at 37.9% (238K), D advantage +3.5

Right now we’re at 925K voted, with Ds at 40.4% (373K) and Rs at 36.1% (334K). D advantage +4.3.

So 300K more have voted and Ds advantage is a bit bigger. And that's not taking into account Indies. Also, early voting ends today (?) while mail ballots will continue, so I would expect D margin to grow since Rs are mostly voting in person.

[Ljube]

Was curious about NV. Day before election, the EV was 629K, with Ds at 41.4% (261K) and Rs at 37.9% (238K), D advantage +3.5

Right now we’re at 925K voted, with Ds at 40.4% (373K) and Rs at 36.1% (334K). D advantage +4.3.

So 300K more have voted and Ds advantage is a bit bigger. And that's not taking into account Indies. Also, early voting ends today (?) while mail ballots will continue, so I would expect D margin to grow since Rs are mostly voting in person.

Nevada numbers are better for Dems than in 2016. That is not the question. The question is how much better.

The margin in Nevada tends to be similar to the overall popular vote margin.

[wbrocks67]

Was curious about NV. Day before election, the EV was 629K, with Ds at 41.4% (261K) and Rs at 37.9% (238K), D advantage +3.5

Right now we’re at 925K voted, with Ds at 40.4% (373K) and Rs at 36.1% (334K). D advantage +4.3.

So 300K more have voted and Ds advantage is a bit bigger. And that's not taking into account Indies. Also, early voting ends today (?) while mail ballots will continue, so I would expect D margin to grow since Rs are mostly voting in person.

Nevada numbers are better for Dems than in 2016. That is not the question. The question is how much better.

The margin in Nevada tends to be similar to the overall popular vote margin.

Really depends on how NPA is shaking out.

[Crumpets]

It doesn't make sense to me that you can both be worried about turnout in Miami-Dade and worried about Trump doing very well with Cuban-Americans there. It seems more likely that if Trump is doing well with Cuban-Americans then that would explain why turnout there has been less strong as Trump voters everywhere have been holding out until election day. And if you're of the opinion that "a vote already cast is more valuable than the intention to vote," then it seems like Miami-Dade's numbers are generally a wash if we're expecting it to trend R relative to the rest of the state.

All that is to say, if we're looking at a place like Texas and guessing that the huge early vote turnout places will probably trend D, then if we expect Miami-Dade to trend R, we should also expect it to have a weaker early vote showing with absolutely nothing else to be inferred about the final results.

[n1240]

NC 10/29, day 14 early in-person vote (quick update, will add 2016 comps later):

Dem 52142 (28.5%)
Rep 69418 (38.0%)
Una 61158 (33.5%)
Total 182718

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 1149111 (36.1%)
Rep 1108173 (34.8%)
Una 926808 (29.1%)
Total 3184092

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1556483 (38.3%)
Rep 1286508 (31.7%)
Una 1220771 (30.0%)
Total 4063762

[wbrocks67]

What day is last day of NC early vote?

Also, wow. NC at 86% of 2016 turnout.

[n1240]

What day is last day of NC early vote?

Also, wow. NC at 86% of 2016 turnout.

Tomorrow with reduced hours (most close around 3 pm instead of 7/8 pm I think).

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1322149960327045120