2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Also, FL stuff can be wonky considering you may have a good chunk of Rs voted for Biden.

You’ll also have a lot of Democrats voting Trump since this is a southern state.

[swf541]

Also, FL stuff can be wonky considering you may have a good chunk of Rs voted for Biden.

You’ll also have a lot of Democrats voting Trump since this is a southern state.

Not as much as prior years due to reg shifts.

[swf541]

Also, FL stuff can be wonky considering you may have a good chunk of Rs voted for Biden.

You’ll also have a lot of Democrats voting Trump since this is a southern state.

Party Registration and polling disagrees with this post.

But yes you'll def have some but consistently we've seen there is noticeably higher gop defections then dem defections.

Unless were just going to all ignore all data on Florida for the last year, in which that case then idk why yall are here

[GeorgiaModerate]

Also, FL stuff can be wonky considering you may have a good chunk of Rs voted for Biden.

You’ll also have a lot of Democrats voting Trump since this is a southern state.

Party Registration and polling disagrees with this post.

But yes you'll def have some but consistently we've seen there is noticeably higher gop defections then dem defections.

Unless were just going to all ignore all data on Florida for the last year, in which that case then idk why yall are here

For the free drinks and buffet.

[GP270watch]

 Your election day winning strategy should never bank on registered members of the other party voting for your candidate.

[Tintrlvr]

Republicans vote before work. Democrats vote after work. No idea why, but that’s how it’s been for a long time.

Lot of retirees? (which might be shifting Biden this cycle actually)

I mean, retirees vote during work hours. The pattern applies to voters who work a regular workday on Election Day: Republicans tend to vote before they go to work while Democrats tend to vote after they leave work (on average, that is, in a 50-50 election the morning vote would be 55-45 R and the evening vote would be 55-45 D). This pattern holds up going pretty far back - even before there was a noticeable age gap (like in the 90s elections or 2000).

It wouldn't shock me if, on net, Republicans are more likely to be morning people and Democrats not, which would explain it.

[Kuumo]

It wouldn't shock me if, on net, Republicans are more likely to be morning people and Democrats not, which would explain it.

The real reason I am a Democrat.

[wbrocks67]

With another 100K+ votes added in PA, Dems lead grows to about 1.06M in returned ballots as of yesterday.

https://twitter.com/lucyeperk/status/1323651887724376065

[Tender Branson]

Even though I think Biden will ultimately win FL based on Indys, it would also be cool if he loses the state.

Why ?

Because I banked 50€ on a high-risk bet that Biden would become President by losing OH and FL.

And I have several other bets running ...

[DINGO Joe]

Even though I think Biden will ultimately win FL based on Indys, it would also be cool if he loses the state.

Why ?

Because I banked 50€ on a high-risk bet that Biden would become President by losing OH and FL.

And I have several other bets running ...

50 cents doesn't seem like a very big bet

[swf541]

Even though I think Biden will ultimately win FL based on Indys, it would also be cool if he loses the state.

Why ?

Because I banked 50€ on a high-risk bet that Biden would become President by losing OH and FL.

And I have several other bets running ...

50 cents doesn't seem like a very big bet

I assume this is a joke and you can tell its in euros....

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

I tried mailing in my ballot 3 weekends ago because I was too lazy to drive/bike to the nearest dropbox, but got my ballot returned in the mail the next week. Had to drop it off at my local library the following weekend.

Still have no idea why the USPS didn’t process it. The return envelope said ballot postage was pre-paid...

[Crumpets]

I tried mailing in my ballot 3 weekends ago because I was too lazy to drive/bike to the nearest dropbox, but got my ballot returned in the mail the next week. Had to drop it off at my local library the following weekend.

Still have no idea why the USPS didn’t process it. The return envelope said ballot postage was pre-paid...

Patriot Prayer infiltration of Oregon USPS?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JessicaHuseman/status/1323678662236004354

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JessicaHuseman/status/1323678662236004354

What every swing state should've been doing.

[MasterJedi]

https://twitter.com/JessicaHuseman/status/1323678662236004354

What every swing state should've been doing.

Republicans said no.

[NOVA Green]

OREGON- 11/3/20 AM UPDATE (Day 13 of Full Reports)

Probably not the state at the top of everyone's mind right now today of all days, but for sake of completeness in case anybody wants to go back and look at the daily numbers some time in the future...

I don't know if we will get another update Tomorrow, or if the State of Oregon will wait to update until everything is in....


Cumulative TOT Ballots Received: 2,155,350(107.8% of 2016 TOTAL PRES).+9.4% Daily Jump
                                                                 (73.1%) of 2020 TOTAL RV)         +6.3% Daily Jump

Before provide the Daily Update, here are the links to my previous daily updates in this thread, for anyone who might be interested in tracking.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7670571#msg7670571

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7674522#msg7674522

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7678893#msg7678893

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7682160#msg7682160

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=407463.msg7693065#msg7693065

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=407463.msg7696894#msg7696894

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=407463.msg7700901#msg7700901

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=407463.msg7704899#msg7704899

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=407463.msg7708063#msg7708063

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=407463.msg7720965#msg7720965

Again, I will try to avoid cluttering the thread in too much detail with County level coverage, but rather focus primarily on the top-line numbers and route some of the county-level granularity elsewhere, and perhaps occasionally call out interesting trends in certain places, and possibly provide another update in the OR 2020 State Megathread in the US-SEN & Congressional Board.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=393352.msg7715913#msg7715913

11/3/20 AM OR RAW CUMULATIVE VOTE CHART BY PARTY REG:



11/3/20 AM OR RAW CUMULATIVE VOTE CHART % BY PARTY REG:



11/3/20 AM Update: Total Cumulative % Turnout by Partisan Registration:



Total Ballots Yet to be Received by Political Registration 11/3/20 AM:



Daily votes batch from 11/2/20 AM to 11/2/3 /AM reporting:



Daily Update from a % Chart by Party Registration:




I will avoid commenting on these numbers in detail Tonight but a few brief parting comments:

1.) PUBs beat the DEMs for the Fourth day in total raw votes with a new record +8.3k Pub Daily Raw Margin, which combined with their past three days has eaten into the record +280k D TOT Lead from 10/28/20 by a combined 12.7k R NET Votes.

2.) MISC (NAV /3rd Party Voters) continue the lead over both REG DEM & PUBs for the 4th Daily Ballot Count in a row, with a new daily record 38.4% of the Daily Vote Share.

3.) We will likely continue to see NAV / 3rd Party Vote Share increase, and surprising we have not seen the DEMs retake the daily vote lead with the final batches, which is slightly atypical in my experience.

4.) Although naturally OR is not competitive in either the PRES or US-SEN elections, there are other down-ballot races of interest and DEMs performed extremely well in the '18 Midterms in State House and State Senate Elections, so I would not be surprised to see additional pickups in 2020 (With a district that includes Bend at the top of my list).

5.) In particular, not only to I believe that DeFazio will win CD-04 by decent margins, and am not seeing any major warning signs although I have yet to more fully review the numbers with the 11/3/20 update.

6.) Again, the key thing to watch in OR will be the dramatic surge in NAV voters added to the rolls since AVR through the DMV for the 1st PRES Election. There are still roughly 300k DEM/PUB combined votes out there, and almost half-a-Million NAV / 3rd Party votes potentially outstanding...

[Alben Barkley]

Republicans vote before work. Democrats vote after work. No idea why, but that’s how it’s been for a long time.

Trump is truly f--ked then, because GOP numbers at this point are nowhere near where they need to be.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/ChadLivengood/status/1323625707570909187

20,000 new registered voters in Detroit seems meaningful.

Wow--- at those Sterling Heights number of new voters!

There were 58.4k Total Voters for PRES in 2016.

[One Term Floridian]

I am horrified by Virginia’s returns right now

[It’s so Joever]

Who was it that challenged me to the avatar bet?

I believe it’s time for them to change theirs.

[lfromnj]

So that doubled turnout in the rio grande Valley went  100% to Trump
SHY TRUMP VOTERS

[It’s so Joever]

So that doubled turnout in the rio grande Valley went  100% to Trump
SHY TRUMP VOTERS

More like usual non voters who were not ever seen as likely to vote by polling agencies. Turnout was insane and I’m guessing the polls were off because they misunderstood just how many people would vote (and ironically that helped the GOP)

[Lief 🗽]

I assume all the Florida optimists will be admitting how wrong they were? If only we’d spent all that time and money in NC instead and got Cal over the line.

[Ferguson97]

I assume all the Florida optimists will be admitting how wrong they were? If only we’d spent all that time and money in NC instead and got Cal over the line.

Why are you acting like nobody paid attention to NC?

And yeah, how dare Democrats spend slightly more in a state that has 29 EVs than a state with 15 EVs