IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[Brittain33]

Presumably he'll do some polling before he jumps in and sees if he'll do better than the others. At least he'd be running in a swing state in a Dem-friendly year, most likely.

[Brittain33]

I can see the outlines of an Unbeatable Titan Joni Ernst myth taking shape. Do the Googling guys, she's only modestly popular in the state based on the polls I can find from 2018. Selzer had her at 51% popular and Morning Consult had her at 42%-38% earlier this year. These aren't terrible numbers, but if Iowa swings heavily enough against Trump she could fall.

I'll call this Likely R until we see who the Dems put up.

Whatever 2020 turns out to be, it's probably not going to be as good as 2014 for Ernst.

[Brittain33]

If Vilsack overperforms like Bayh and Bredesen did then he'd easily win, IA is no where near as red as IN/TN. And unlike Strickland he was not a one termer who governed during the Great Recession. The fact that people are suggesting Scholten who just lost and Finkenauer or Axne who'd have to give up their hard fought swing seats after one term shows there are not really other good options.

Scholten is clearly running for something now.

[Brittain33]

UTJE is getting divorced. If her divorce filings are true, which you never know, her husband had a really difficult time with her career success and made it difficult for her.

She also says that she turned down Trump’s offer to make her VP nominee.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jan/22/joni-ernst-donald-trump-vice-president-turned-down

[Brittain33]

I think this will help her a lot. I expect Ernst to campaign heavily with Trump in 2020.

Do you? Honestly, I expect her to walk a fine line and avoid appearing with him if she can manage it. She will play this conservatively and try to avoid losing the votes of anti-Trump moderates and republicans. She knows she can count on all of Trumps voters to support her without having to ask. And Trump will handle Republican turnout.

[Brittain33]

I think he’s lucky his margin in Iowa was so enormous in 2016 because I expect the state has swung quite far away from him.

[Brittain33]

The husband is retaliating with claims of infidelity on the part of Joni:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6619997/Husband-Iowa-Senator-Joni-Ernst-claims-affair-soldier.html?ito=social-twitter_dailymailus

Oh crap. Wow. Bet she wished she’d castrated him along with the pigs.

[Brittain33]

It depends on if she wants to keep her married name.

I doubt she wants to

She might keep it for strategic reasons, not wanting to confuse voters.

I agree, it’s her professional name. Most likely she keeps it until she remarries and takes her new husband’s name.

[Brittain33]

I think it's going to be a competitive race, but without knowing who her opponent is or how badly Trump may do in Iowa I can't say if she's going to be favored for now. As of now, with no obvious opponent, she's favored.

[Brittain33]

Can we agree it's a good thing for America that the fact she's getting divorced shouldn't really have an impact on her chances for reelection? Earlier in my lifetime, this would have been a minor scandal... a major one if you go further back. Now, it's just a thing that may cause embarrassment but isn't going to tar her IMO.

[Brittain33]

Democrats start needing to pick up 3 seats... 4 once we give Alabama to the Republicans. How is it unlikely that iowa isn’t at least 5th on that list?

[Brittain33]

Democrats start needing to pick up 3 seats... 4 once we give Alabama to the Republicans. How is it unlikely that iowa isn’t at least 5th on that list?

I really don’t see how Iowa flips before Colorado, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, even with the 50%+1 rule in GA. This is obviously not nearly as likely, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if one or two of KS/MT/AK flipped before IA, especially if Trump wins reelection.

Colorado yeah—and I'm tempted to agree with North Carolina as more likely—but Iowa has a track record of voting Democratic statewide federally in recent memory for President and for Tom Harkin, and that's why I put it ahead of Georgia and even Arizona. I think you could make a case that 2018 in Arizona puts it ahead of Iowa, but there's no argument for Georgia.

[Brittain33]

Calling Ernst favored is fair, but she's not safe, especially if Democrats actually run a decent candidate for Iowa (which they haven't done in most recent races.)

C'mon, Millennials loved Patty Judge.

[Brittain33]

Would this be our first major Millennial challenge of a Gen X Senator?

[Brittain33]

I'm starting to think this is Safe R. Trump isn't losing Iowa, and Ernst isn't running behind Trump.

*facepalm*

Are you a massive concern troll?

I'm not. I'm merely stating what I think. Trump won Iowa by 9 points in 2016, and I don't see the national environment being 9 points better for Democrats in 2020.

Even if all that is true, Safe R is for John Barrasso and Richard Shelby whose races will never be seriously contested and whose states are off the table for the D presidential nominee. Ernst is likely to face a solid Democratic opponent in a competitive presidential race. I think Likely R better describes your scenario.

[Brittain33]

The DSCC would be foolish to target this over CO, AZ, NC, and GA.

Which means, I'm sure, that they will.

I would hope the DSCC will be able to target more than four states.

[Brittain33]

Ernst was asked on local radio about her declining approval rating and increasing likelihood of a competitive race.

“Yep, you bet. And no, that’s actually, if you go back, I think Charlie Cook is the one that reported that,” Ernst said. “You know one of his, one of his, you know, studies. So, there are a lot of vulnerable folks out there. And yes, just with changing, shifting demographics in Iowa. Um, you know, that is true. I’ll say that, that is true.”

Since the 2010 census, Iowa is estimated to have gone from 3% black to 4%  and from 4% Hispanic to 5%, so apparently Joni thinks a tidal wave of the browns are taking her down.

https://iowastartingline.com/2019/10/28/ernst-blames-shifting-demographics-for-tough-reelection-campaign/

I’m going to be charitable and think she’s referring to young people being anti-Trump and also, possibly, that r numbers with educated suburbanites are tanking. She knows Iowa isn’t suddenly California.

[Brittain33]

If Ernst wins comfortably (which unfortunately is looking more likely each day,) it's because Iowa has become a red state, not because she's a "strong incumbent" or anything like that.

You’re telling me a Republican candidate winning an open seat with 52% of the vote in 2014 hasn’t proven herself to be unusually strong?

So what if she got 65,000 fewer votes than Hillary Clinton got in Iowa in 2016. Ernst is *beloved.*

[Brittain33]

You’re telling me a Republican candidate winning an open seat with 52% of the vote in 2014 hasn’t proven herself to be unusually strong?

So what if she got 65,000 fewer votes than Hillary Clinton got in Iowa in 2016. Ernst is *beloved.*

So? Mark Warner got 700,000 fewer votes than Donald Trump got in Virginia and he’s still beyond safe in 2020.

Do you think 2020 will be about the same, partisan-wise, as 2014?

[Brittain33]

You’re telling me a Republican candidate winning an open seat with 52% of the vote in 2014 hasn’t proven herself to be unusually strong?

So what if she got 65,000 fewer votes than Hillary Clinton got in Iowa in 2016. Ernst is *beloved.*

So? Mark Warner got 700,000 fewer votes than Donald Trump got in Virginia and he’s still beyond safe in 2020.

Do you think 2020 will be about the same, partisan-wise, as 2014?

Iowa is trending rightward, and Ernst is very popular. Wouldn't surprise me if she won by 20.

Tell me more about this rightward trend from 2016 to 2018 in Iowa.

How is Ernst’s popularity compared to other senators in the Morning Consult polls? I think she’s in the bottom 6.

[Brittain33]

Selzer, which is the gold standard Iowa pollster, has Ernst at 57% approval.

How fresh is that poll? October, or a few weeks older?

It’s been an absolutely terrible year for Iowa farming and manufacturing. The floods in spring were devastating followed by the collapse of China trade talks.

But given how far to the right Iowa trended from 2016 to 2018, maybe she’s over 60% now.

[Brittain33]

Selzer, which is the gold standard Iowa pollster, has Ernst at 57% approval.

How fresh is that poll? October, or a few weeks older?

It’s been an absolutely terrible year for Iowa farming and manufacturing. The floods in spring were devastating followed by the collapse of China trade talks.

But given how far to the right Iowa trended from 2016 to 2018, maybe she’s over 60% now.

So you are blaming the floods on Ernst ? That's crazy, even for a Atlas democrat

Yes, that’s precisely what I am doing. I am attributing the floods to Ernst. There is no other possible or more likely interpretation of what I meant. Thank you for clarifying things for everyone on this board.

[Brittain33]

Selzer, which is the gold standard Iowa pollster, has Ernst at 57% approval.

How fresh is that poll? October, or a few weeks older?

It’s been an absolutely terrible year for Iowa farming and manufacturing. The floods in spring were devastating followed by the collapse of China trade talks.

But given how far to the right Iowa trended from 2016 to 2018, maybe she’s over 60% now.

So you are blaming the floods on Ernst ? That's crazy, even for a Atlas democrat

Yes, that’s precisely what I am doing. I am attributing the floods to Ernst. There is no other possible or more likely interpretation of what I meant. Thank you for clarifying things for everyone on this board.

So why are you even talking about floods on a thread about IA-SEN ?

Because Iowa’s farmers were in terrible shape before the floods because of the Trade War, and still willing to give Trump and Ernst a chance, and since then a) Trump has screwed over ethanol producers by favoring petroleum producers and b) the floods in March knocked out any chance of it being a good harvest. Farmers’ positions are markedly worse than they were in February and Ernst has looked ineffective about helping them while also hugging trump.

I don’t think it’s a surprise that incumbents can be affected by events that are partially or totally outside their control. Famously, Obama took a beating from the BP oil spill and Ebola in africa.

[Brittain33]

And no, Ernst is not losing, no matter what you want to believe

Yes, a Republican candidate winning an open seat race with 52% in the best Republican year of the decade has proven herself to be an unbeatable titan who is incapable of losing even after her state flipped 2 of its 3 Republican House seats to Democratic in the midterms.

[Brittain33]

And no, Ernst is not losing, no matter what you want to believe

Yes, a Republican candidate winning an open seat race with 52% in the best Republican year of the decade has proven herself to be an unbeatable titan who is incapable of losing even after her state flipped 2 of its 3 Republican House seats to Democratic in the midterms.

The 2 seats you are referring to are 5 points more D than Iowa as whole. And you (and a few other people on this forum) should really stop assuming that every future election will be as much D friendly than 2018 was

I don't think every future election be, but the evidence so far is that the one election we're talking about now--2020--is going to look a *lot* more like 2018 than like 2014.

I don't know, maybe you're right and 2020 will be as Republican as 2014 or moreso. I think the polling evidence is pointing the other way though.