IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[Brittain33]

And no, Ernst is not losing, no matter what you want to believe

Yes, a Republican candidate winning an open seat race with 52% in the best Republican year of the decade has proven herself to be an unbeatable titan who is incapable of losing even after her state flipped 2 of its 3 Republican House seats to Democratic in the midterms.

[lfromnj]

And no, Ernst is not losing, no matter what you want to believe

Yes, a Republican candidate winning an open seat race with 52% in the best Republican year of the decade has proven herself to be an unbeatable titan who is incapable of losing even after her state flipped 2 of its 3 Republican House seats to Democratic in the midterms.

And those 2 were like 5 or 6 points left of the state?
And the 3rd one was literally the closest our congress has to a neo nazi.

[QAnonKelly]

Iowa is the swingiest state in the entire country and it's too far out to tell. As of now Ernst wins but it will come down to the economy.

[Frenchrepublican]

And no, Ernst is not losing, no matter what you want to believe

Yes, a Republican candidate winning an open seat race with 52% in the best Republican year of the decade has proven herself to be an unbeatable titan who is incapable of losing even after her state flipped 2 of its 3 Republican House seats to Democratic in the midterms.

The 2 seats you are referring to are 5 points more D than Iowa as whole. And you (and a few other people on this forum) should really stop assuming that every future election will be as much D friendly than 2018 was

[Brittain33]

And no, Ernst is not losing, no matter what you want to believe

Yes, a Republican candidate winning an open seat race with 52% in the best Republican year of the decade has proven herself to be an unbeatable titan who is incapable of losing even after her state flipped 2 of its 3 Republican House seats to Democratic in the midterms.

The 2 seats you are referring to are 5 points more D than Iowa as whole. And you (and a few other people on this forum) should really stop assuming that every future election will be as much D friendly than 2018 was

I don't think every future election be, but the evidence so far is that the one election we're talking about now--2020--is going to look a *lot* more like 2018 than like 2014.

I don't know, maybe you're right and 2020 will be as Republican as 2014 or moreso. I think the polling evidence is pointing the other way though.

[Frenchrepublican]

And no, Ernst is not losing, no matter what you want to believe

Yes, a Republican candidate winning an open seat race with 52% in the best Republican year of the decade has proven herself to be an unbeatable titan who is incapable of losing even after her state flipped 2 of its 3 Republican House seats to Democratic in the midterms.

The 2 seats you are referring to are 5 points more D than Iowa as whole. And you (and a few other people on this forum) should really stop assuming that every future election will be as much D friendly than 2018 was

I don't think every future election be, but the evidence so far is that the one election we're talking about now--2020--is going to look a *lot* more like 2018 than like 2014.

I don't know, maybe you're right and 2020 will be as Republican as 2014 or moreso. I think the polling evidence is pointing the other way though.

I never said that 2020 will be as much R friendly than 2014 ; but yeah I doubt that 2020 will be a D+8.5 year. And even if 2020 is another blue wave it's easy to see Ernst surviving simply by winning IA4th by a large margin while losing the three other districts (see Kim Reynolds)

[Brittain33]

I never said that...

You repeatedly attribute extreme and overly optimistic views to Democrats you disagree with in your responses. I wrote what I did to show you what it feels like.

[SnowLabrador]

Greenfield raised $1.6 million in Q4 2019.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The problem with these fundraising numbers is that they keep polling Prez race and no polls from the Senate, except for AZ, and Kelly will have to outperform a D in order to win.  1.6 M is nothing, Ernst got 7M

[SnowLabrador]

I was really bored today, so I went on Wikipedia and colored in the 2018 US House map from Iowa onto a blank county map of the state. If a Democrat wins the Senate race there this year, I think the map might look like that map, assuming coalitions don't change too much between then and November.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/441295173058822158/689520849698685053/Screen_Shot_2020-03-17_at_1.03.27_PM.png

I would have just uploaded the image here, but I couldn't figure out how. Such a scenario is pretty unlikely; I think Ernst wins by 15-20. But this is just a hypothetical.

[Tartarus Sauce]

I was really bored today, so I went on Wikipedia and colored in the 2018 US House map from Iowa onto a blank county map of the state. If a Democrat wins the Senate race there this year, I think the map might look like that map, assuming coalitions don't change too much between then and November.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/441295173058822158/689520849698685053/Screen_Shot_2020-03-17_at_1.03.27_PM.png

I would have just uploaded the image here, but I couldn't figure out how. Such a scenario is pretty unlikely; I think Ernst wins by 15-20. But this is just a hypothetical.

You think the likeliest path is the Democrat losing both Linn and Dallas counties, but winning back places like Woodbury, Webster, and Wapello???

[MT Treasurer]

We’ll see what happens, but if Ernst survives a Democratic wave, outpeforms all swing state Republicans, and does better than Tuberville, Sullivan, Daines, Kobach, and Cornyn, I will gladly accept accolades. I remember taking a lot of flack for saying that Daines was more vulnerable than Ernst.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Greenfield isn't known that much and Franken didnt turn out to be the candidate that was expected. He was a great serviceman, but, not known to GE, either

[Pericles]

We’ll see what happens, but if Ernst survives a Democratic wave, outpeforms all swing state Republicans, and does better than Tuberville, Sullivan, Daines, Kobach, and Cornyn, I will gladly accept accolades. I remember taking a lot of flack for saying that Daines was more vulnerable than Ernst.

This is unlikely.

[SnowLabrador]

So Cook Political Report moved this race from Likely R to Lean R today. I'm not sure if this is justified; Trump's likely to carry Iowa by double digits, and it's very hard for me to see that happening if Ernst is defeated.

Also, incumbency is a massive advantage in Iowa's statewide elections. If Ernst loses re-election, it would be the first time since 1984 that an Iowa US Senator is defeated.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

She will win with Trump

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IA doesn't have many minorities,  I wouldnt contest IA, Dems are leading in AZ and OH anyways

[SnowLabrador]

So a new poll came out having Ernst up by only 1 point. I could honestly see her losing at this point, but a lot can happen in six months.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I hope she lose and I hope Cornyn lose to

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.reddit.com/r/VoteDEM/comments/ge59gx/sen_chris_murphy_dct_mitch_mcconnell_just_bought/?utm_source=ifttt

[MT Treasurer]

>Reddit/VoteDEM
>Chris Murphy
>"the Senate may come down this seat" (lol)
>"donate to Theresa tonight"

Okay.

If Ernst is in serious danger of losing, the Senate majority is already gone for the GOP. Republicans shouldn’t take this seat for granted, but McConnell should be much more worried about potential tipping-point races (NC, MT, GA, KS, etc.) than he should be about losing IA.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Iowa is seat 55 or so. Not anywhere close to tipping point lmao

[DaWN]

Iowa is seat 55 or so. Not anywhere close to tipping point lmao

And imo that's only if Kobach loses the primary in Kansas, otherwise it's 56. I get the feeling this is going to be a laughably overrated race to the bitter end.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Iowa is seat 55 or so. Not anywhere close to tipping point lmao

And imo that's only if Kobach loses the primary in Kansas, otherwise it's 56. I get the feeling this is going to be a laughably overrated race to the bitter end.

I was actually including Kansas before Iowa: subtract Alabama and add CO AZ ME NC MT GAx2 KS IA

I think TX could go ahead of IA too

[DaWN]

Iowa is seat 55 or so. Not anywhere close to tipping point lmao

And imo that's only if Kobach loses the primary in Kansas, otherwise it's 56. I get the feeling this is going to be a laughably overrated race to the bitter end.

I was actually including Kansas before Iowa: subtract Alabama and add CO AZ ME NC MT GAx2 KS IA

I think TX could go ahead of IA too

Yeah My maths was a bit out I shouldn't post when it's late lmao

TX could have been way ahead of IA but with the useless candidates it looks like that ones more or less entirely off the board to me