IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[DINGO Joe]

The husband is retaliating with claims of infidelity on the part of Joni:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6619997/Husband-Iowa-Senator-Joni-Ernst-claims-affair-soldier.html?ito=social-twitter_dailymailus

Obviously if she had infidelity that's very bad and her fault but this complaint from her husband sounds ridiculous:

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It's his wife. As long as no one else was present, why is he complaining? Not that I have a desire to see Joni Ernst naked of course, but he is married to her.

It's refreshing to know I don't disagree with Ernst on everything.

This man is crazy (or so thoroughly dedicated to his affair that seeing his wife naked felt like a betrayal to his girlfriend!)

Well, the behavior that Gail is upset about in the petition apparently occurs after they have privately agreed to divorce but agreed to still share the house in Red Oak (for whatever reason--financial, appearances)  He's saying in his petition that they can no longer share the house because of her behavior.

I saw stories during the time of the housing crash of couples that got divorced and couldn't afford to sell the house (underwater) and they both continued living in the house while separated/divorced.  You would think a US Senator could afford other housing in Red Oak where I'm sure it's relatively affordable, but as we know DC isn't cheap.

There is the possibility that both sides are bringing the crazy on this one.  I've seen it before in what appeared to be normal functioning adults.

[cvparty]

steve king

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Steve King because I would be trying to throw away elections from within.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Probably Adam Gregg

[Kingpoleon]

Rick Bertrand. His opposition to Steve King would be a plus on a statewide level.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Paul Pate

[PAK Man]

Mary Mosiman. She was just narrowly defeated as state auditor, and she'd probably be a safe pick. She was a non-controversial figure who only lost because of the environment.

[RedPrometheus]

Is there really any possibilty that Ernst retires?

[Scottholes 2.0]

The Iowa governor's race was close, and Dems control the congressional delegation in Iowa, so I think Dems still have some ground in Iowa.

[SnowLabrador]

I do, since Trump will most likely win Iowa again. Plus, she's pretty popular in a state that already leans slightly to the right, so I'd say she's a pretty strong favorite. Likely R to start.

[Brittain33]

I think it's going to be a competitive race, but without knowing who her opponent is or how badly Trump may do in Iowa I can't say if she's going to be favored for now. As of now, with no obvious opponent, she's favored.

[Brittain33]

Can we agree it's a good thing for America that the fact she's getting divorced shouldn't really have an impact on her chances for reelection? Earlier in my lifetime, this would have been a minor scandal... a major one if you go further back. Now, it's just a thing that may cause embarrassment but isn't going to tar her IMO.

[Dipper Josh]

Do y'all think this non-profit means JD isnt going to run. It certainly seems he's leaning that way.

[MT Treasurer]

She’s definitely favored, and this notion that the 2014/2016 results were a fluke in Iowa but not in Ohio (which is Likely R and going to vote 10+ points to the right of Iowa from now on because reasons) is as absurd as saying that Arizona is still a Lean/Likely R state. Democrats could easily take the Senate in 2020, but there’s really no way Iowa will be the tipping point race. Yes, the state can be swingy, but there are far better targets for Democrats, especially if Trump wins reelection.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

She’s definitely favored, and this notion that the 2014/2016 results were a fluke in Iowa but not in Ohio (which is Likely R and going to vote 10+ points to the right of Iowa from now on because reasons) is as absurd as saying that Arizona is still a Lean/Likely R state. Democrats could easily take the Senate in 2020, but there’s really no way Iowa will be the tipping point race. Yes, the state can be swingy, but there are far better targets for Democrats, especially if Trump wins reelection.

BUT MUH 2012

[Brittain33]

Democrats start needing to pick up 3 seats... 4 once we give Alabama to the Republicans. How is it unlikely that iowa isn’t at least 5th on that list?

[MT Treasurer]

Democrats start needing to pick up 3 seats... 4 once we give Alabama to the Republicans. How is it unlikely that iowa isn’t at least 5th on that list?

I really don’t see how Iowa flips before Colorado, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, even with the 50%+1 rule in GA. This is obviously not nearly as likely, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if one or two of KS/MT/AK flipped before IA, especially if Trump wins reelection.

[Brittain33]

Democrats start needing to pick up 3 seats... 4 once we give Alabama to the Republicans. How is it unlikely that iowa isn’t at least 5th on that list?

I really don’t see how Iowa flips before Colorado, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, even with the 50%+1 rule in GA. This is obviously not nearly as likely, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if one or two of KS/MT/AK flipped before IA, especially if Trump wins reelection.

Colorado yeah—and I'm tempted to agree with North Carolina as more likely—but Iowa has a track record of voting Democratic statewide federally in recent memory for President and for Tom Harkin, and that's why I put it ahead of Georgia and even Arizona. I think you could make a case that 2018 in Arizona puts it ahead of Iowa, but there's no argument for Georgia.

[MT Treasurer]

Democrats start needing to pick up 3 seats... 4 once we give Alabama to the Republicans. How is it unlikely that iowa isn’t at least 5th on that list?

I really don’t see how Iowa flips before Colorado, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, even with the 50%+1 rule in GA. This is obviously not nearly as likely, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if one or two of KS/MT/AK flipped before IA, especially if Trump wins reelection.

Colorado yeah—and I'm tempted to agree with North Carolina as more likely—but Iowa has a track record of voting Democratic statewide federally in recent memory for President and for Tom Harkin, and that's why I put it ahead of Georgia and even Arizona. I think you could make a case that 2018 in Arizona puts it ahead of Iowa, but there's no argument for Georgia.

Tom Harkin won in 2008, the same year Democrats won federal races in Arkansas, South Dakota and Louisiana in a landslide, so certainly not that "recent." Arizona elected a Democratic Senator in 2018, and Democrats came closer to winning GA-GOV 2014/GA-GOV 2018/GA-SEN 2014/GA-SEN 2016(!)/GA-PRES 2016 than IA-GOV 2014/IA-GOV 2018/IA-SEN 2014/IA-SEN 2016/IA-PRES 2016. Georgia might be more "inelastic" than Iowa, but we’re getting really close to the point where Democrats don’t even need to win over that many swing voters to flip the state (certainly fewer of them than in Iowa). Hell, even Stacey Abrams only lost by like 1.5% and Barrow only lost the runoff by 4 even though he underperformed badly in places like Cobb and Gwinnett.

[Xing]

Calling Ernst favored is fair, but she's not safe, especially if Democrats actually run a decent candidate for Iowa (which they haven't done in most recent races.)

[Brittain33]

Calling Ernst favored is fair, but she's not safe, especially if Democrats actually run a decent candidate for Iowa (which they haven't done in most recent races.)

C'mon, Millennials loved Patty Judge.

[Pollster]

Theresa Greenfield and Eddie Mauro are likely candidates

[Progressive Pessimist]

Theresa Greenfield and Eddie Mauro are likely candidates

I don't know much about those two, but I'm not feeling optimistic. Another Democratic Senate majority may never happen at this rate. MTTreasurer may end up being right after all.

[Pollster]

Theresa Greenfield and Eddie Mauro are likely candidates

I don't know much about those two, but I'm not feeling optimistic. Another Democratic Senate majority may never happen at this rate. MTTreasurer may end up being right after all.

Both are good candidates - the IA-3 Democratic primary last cycle was very much an embarrassment of riches.

Greenfield in particular walked away from a very tough situation looking very good.

[SnowLabrador]

Per a new poll, Ernst has a 57% approval rating. I think she'll win by double digits at this rate.