IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[Frenchrepublican]

I may not live in Iowa anymore (need to update my avatar) but I think this is going to be a sleeper race. Everyone thinks Ernst is safe. Yet Iowa has been one of the hardest-hit states by the tariff war, the economy, and ethanol. Mass layoffs have been happening, and farmers are struggling. I personally know several farmers in Iowa and at least one of them - who voted for Trump - said she and her husband have been seriously considering giving up their farming operation, as it's a struggle for them anymore. Sonny Perdue's comments about family farms certainly don't help things.

Everyone thinks that just because Theresa Greenfield isn't some massive Tom Vilsack-esque name that she's automatically a loser and that Iowa recruitment is terrible. Democrats specifically sought her out to run, and I think she's been at the top of their list for awhile. She probably would have won the 3rd District if her campaign manager hadn't have forged those signatures - that whole situation, PS, she handled amazingly and as well as anyone could have hoped for (fired him, tossed out all the signatures and made a remarkable effort to get all the signatures again within less than 48 hours). Kay Hagan was a nobody before she became a senator. Did anybody know who Scott Brown was before he got elected? And let's not forget; Joni herself nobody gave a second thought to, and everyone thought Braley would win. The Iowa Democratic Party is a lot better than it was even a year and a half ago, and Ernst is vulnerable. I consider the race Lean R, but it's closer to Tossup than Likely R. Trust me on this; I lived in Iowa and I saw firsthand the struggles the state is going through.

Ask Heidi Heitkamp Fred Hubbell about how these voters care about the tariffs.

Fixed

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/FrankenforIowa/status/1184112361902411776

[Pollster]

No numbers yet, but Franken running ads suggests he's got a good amount of cash. This could be an interesting primary.

[Young Conservative]

No numbers yet, but Franken running ads suggests he's got a good amount of cash. This could be an interesting primary.

Eddie Mauro self funded a million. All of this is good for Ernst.

[DINGO Joe]

Ernst was asked on local radio about her declining approval rating and increasing likelihood of a competitive race.

“Yep, you bet. And no, that’s actually, if you go back, I think Charlie Cook is the one that reported that,” Ernst said. “You know one of his, one of his, you know, studies. So, there are a lot of vulnerable folks out there. And yes, just with changing, shifting demographics in Iowa. Um, you know, that is true. I’ll say that, that is true.”

Since the 2010 census, Iowa is estimated to have gone from 3% black to 4%  and from 4% Hispanic to 5%, so apparently Joni thinks a tidal wave of the browns are taking her down.

https://iowastartingline.com/2019/10/28/ernst-blames-shifting-demographics-for-tough-reelection-campaign/

[SnowLabrador]

Ernst was asked on local radio about her declining approval rating and increasing likelihood of a competitive race.

“Yep, you bet. And no, that’s actually, if you go back, I think Charlie Cook is the one that reported that,” Ernst said. “You know one of his, one of his, you know, studies. So, there are a lot of vulnerable folks out there. And yes, just with changing, shifting demographics in Iowa. Um, you know, that is true. I’ll say that, that is true.”

Since the 2010 census, Iowa is estimated to have gone from 3% black to 4%  and from 4% Hispanic to 5%, so apparently Joni thinks a tidal wave of the browns are taking her down.

https://iowastartingline.com/2019/10/28/ernst-blames-shifting-demographics-for-tough-reelection-campaign/

Shows how bigoted she is. Really hope we can take her down, though I'm not optimistic.

[Brittain33]

Ernst was asked on local radio about her declining approval rating and increasing likelihood of a competitive race.

“Yep, you bet. And no, that’s actually, if you go back, I think Charlie Cook is the one that reported that,” Ernst said. “You know one of his, one of his, you know, studies. So, there are a lot of vulnerable folks out there. And yes, just with changing, shifting demographics in Iowa. Um, you know, that is true. I’ll say that, that is true.”

Since the 2010 census, Iowa is estimated to have gone from 3% black to 4%  and from 4% Hispanic to 5%, so apparently Joni thinks a tidal wave of the browns are taking her down.

https://iowastartingline.com/2019/10/28/ernst-blames-shifting-demographics-for-tough-reelection-campaign/

I’m going to be charitable and think she’s referring to young people being anti-Trump and also, possibly, that r numbers with educated suburbanites are tanking. She knows Iowa isn’t suddenly California.

[MT Treasurer]

Ernst is citing Charlie Cook lmao? She really isn’t the sharpest knife in the drawer...

[Xing]

If Ernst wins comfortably (which unfortunately is looking more likely each day,) it's because Iowa has become a red state, not because she's a "strong incumbent" or anything like that.

[Brittain33]

If Ernst wins comfortably (which unfortunately is looking more likely each day,) it's because Iowa has become a red state, not because she's a "strong incumbent" or anything like that.

You’re telling me a Republican candidate winning an open seat with 52% of the vote in 2014 hasn’t proven herself to be unusually strong?

So what if she got 65,000 fewer votes than Hillary Clinton got in Iowa in 2016. Ernst is *beloved.*

[MT Treasurer]

You’re telling me a Republican candidate winning an open seat with 52% of the vote in 2014 hasn’t proven herself to be unusually strong?

So what if she got 65,000 fewer votes than Hillary Clinton got in Iowa in 2016. Ernst is *beloved.*

So? Mark Warner got 700,000 fewer votes than Donald Trump got in Virginia and he’s still beyond safe in 2020.

[lfromnj]

You’re telling me a Republican candidate winning an open seat with 52% of the vote in 2014 hasn’t proven herself to be unusually strong?

So what if she got 65,000 fewer votes than Hillary Clinton got in Iowa in 2016. Ernst is *beloved.*

So? Mark Warner got 700,000 fewer votes than Donald Trump got in Virginia and he’s still beyond safe in 2020.

Imo california is a tossup. John Cox got more votes than  2014 Jerry Brown

[Brittain33]

You’re telling me a Republican candidate winning an open seat with 52% of the vote in 2014 hasn’t proven herself to be unusually strong?

So what if she got 65,000 fewer votes than Hillary Clinton got in Iowa in 2016. Ernst is *beloved.*

So? Mark Warner got 700,000 fewer votes than Donald Trump got in Virginia and he’s still beyond safe in 2020.

Do you think 2020 will be about the same, partisan-wise, as 2014?

[SnowLabrador]

You’re telling me a Republican candidate winning an open seat with 52% of the vote in 2014 hasn’t proven herself to be unusually strong?

So what if she got 65,000 fewer votes than Hillary Clinton got in Iowa in 2016. Ernst is *beloved.*

So? Mark Warner got 700,000 fewer votes than Donald Trump got in Virginia and he’s still beyond safe in 2020.

Do you think 2020 will be about the same, partisan-wise, as 2014?

Iowa is trending rightward, and Ernst is very popular. Wouldn't surprise me if she won by 20.

[Brittain33]

You’re telling me a Republican candidate winning an open seat with 52% of the vote in 2014 hasn’t proven herself to be unusually strong?

So what if she got 65,000 fewer votes than Hillary Clinton got in Iowa in 2016. Ernst is *beloved.*

So? Mark Warner got 700,000 fewer votes than Donald Trump got in Virginia and he’s still beyond safe in 2020.

Do you think 2020 will be about the same, partisan-wise, as 2014?

Iowa is trending rightward, and Ernst is very popular. Wouldn't surprise me if she won by 20.

Tell me more about this rightward trend from 2016 to 2018 in Iowa.

How is Ernst’s popularity compared to other senators in the Morning Consult polls? I think she’s in the bottom 6.

[SnowLabrador]

You’re telling me a Republican candidate winning an open seat with 52% of the vote in 2014 hasn’t proven herself to be unusually strong?

So what if she got 65,000 fewer votes than Hillary Clinton got in Iowa in 2016. Ernst is *beloved.*

So? Mark Warner got 700,000 fewer votes than Donald Trump got in Virginia and he’s still beyond safe in 2020.

Do you think 2020 will be about the same, partisan-wise, as 2014?

Iowa is trending rightward, and Ernst is very popular. Wouldn't surprise me if she won by 20.

Tell me more about this rightward trend from 2016 to 2018 in Iowa.

How is Ernst’s popularity compared to other senators in the Morning Consult polls? I think she’s in the bottom 6.

Morning Consult is BS, they have Trump's approval in Iowa as worse than Virginia. Selzer, which is the gold standard Iowa pollster, has Ernst at 57% approval.

[Brittain33]

Selzer, which is the gold standard Iowa pollster, has Ernst at 57% approval.

How fresh is that poll? October, or a few weeks older?

It’s been an absolutely terrible year for Iowa farming and manufacturing. The floods in spring were devastating followed by the collapse of China trade talks.

But given how far to the right Iowa trended from 2016 to 2018, maybe she’s over 60% now.

[Frenchrepublican]

Selzer, which is the gold standard Iowa pollster, has Ernst at 57% approval.

How fresh is that poll? October, or a few weeks older?

It’s been an absolutely terrible year for Iowa farming and manufacturing. The floods in spring were devastating followed by the collapse of China trade talks.

But given how far to the right Iowa trended from 2016 to 2018, maybe she’s over 60% now.

So you are blaming the floods on Ernst ? That's crazy, even for a Atlas democrat

[Frenchrepublican]

You’re telling me a Republican candidate winning an open seat with 52% of the vote in 2014 hasn’t proven herself to be unusually strong?

So what if she got 65,000 fewer votes than Hillary Clinton got in Iowa in 2016. Ernst is *beloved.*

So? Mark Warner got 700,000 fewer votes than Donald Trump got in Virginia and he’s still beyond safe in 2020.

Do you think 2020 will be about the same, partisan-wise, as 2014?

Iowa is trending rightward, and Ernst is very popular. Wouldn't surprise me if she won by 20.

Tell me more about this rightward trend from 2016 to 2018 in Iowa.

How is Ernst’s popularity compared to other senators in the Morning Consult polls? I think she’s in the bottom 6.

Morning Consult is BS, they have Trump's approval in Iowa as worse than Virginia. Selzer, which is the gold standard Iowa pollster, has Ernst at 57% approval.

Yeah, Morning consult polls are trash, they have Trump down in Nebraska and they give him better approval rate in VA than in OH

[Brittain33]

Selzer, which is the gold standard Iowa pollster, has Ernst at 57% approval.

How fresh is that poll? October, or a few weeks older?

It’s been an absolutely terrible year for Iowa farming and manufacturing. The floods in spring were devastating followed by the collapse of China trade talks.

But given how far to the right Iowa trended from 2016 to 2018, maybe she’s over 60% now.

So you are blaming the floods on Ernst ? That's crazy, even for a Atlas democrat

Yes, that’s precisely what I am doing. I am attributing the floods to Ernst. There is no other possible or more likely interpretation of what I meant. Thank you for clarifying things for everyone on this board.

[Frenchrepublican]

Selzer, which is the gold standard Iowa pollster, has Ernst at 57% approval.

How fresh is that poll? October, or a few weeks older?

It’s been an absolutely terrible year for Iowa farming and manufacturing. The floods in spring were devastating followed by the collapse of China trade talks.

But given how far to the right Iowa trended from 2016 to 2018, maybe she’s over 60% now.

So you are blaming the floods on Ernst ? That's crazy, even for a Atlas democrat

Yes, that’s precisely what I am doing. I am attributing the floods to Ernst. There is no other possible or more likely interpretation of what I meant. Thank you for clarifying things for everyone on this board.

So why are you even talking about floods on a thread about IA-SEN ?

[Brittain33]

Selzer, which is the gold standard Iowa pollster, has Ernst at 57% approval.

How fresh is that poll? October, or a few weeks older?

It’s been an absolutely terrible year for Iowa farming and manufacturing. The floods in spring were devastating followed by the collapse of China trade talks.

But given how far to the right Iowa trended from 2016 to 2018, maybe she’s over 60% now.

So you are blaming the floods on Ernst ? That's crazy, even for a Atlas democrat

Yes, that’s precisely what I am doing. I am attributing the floods to Ernst. There is no other possible or more likely interpretation of what I meant. Thank you for clarifying things for everyone on this board.

So why are you even talking about floods on a thread about IA-SEN ?

Because Iowa’s farmers were in terrible shape before the floods because of the Trade War, and still willing to give Trump and Ernst a chance, and since then a) Trump has screwed over ethanol producers by favoring petroleum producers and b) the floods in March knocked out any chance of it being a good harvest. Farmers’ positions are markedly worse than they were in February and Ernst has looked ineffective about helping them while also hugging trump.

I don’t think it’s a surprise that incumbents can be affected by events that are partially or totally outside their control. Famously, Obama took a beating from the BP oil spill and Ebola in africa.

[Frenchrepublican]

Selzer, which is the gold standard Iowa pollster, has Ernst at 57% approval.

How fresh is that poll? October, or a few weeks older?

It’s been an absolutely terrible year for Iowa farming and manufacturing. The floods in spring were devastating followed by the collapse of China trade talks.

But given how far to the right Iowa trended from 2016 to 2018, maybe she’s over 60% now.

So you are blaming the floods on Ernst ? That's crazy, even for a Atlas democrat

Yes, that’s precisely what I am doing. I am attributing the floods to Ernst. There is no other possible or more likely interpretation of what I meant. Thank you for clarifying things for everyone on this board.

So why are you even talking about floods on a thread about IA-SEN ?

Because Iowa’s farmers were in terrible shape before the floods because of the Trade War, and still willing to give Trump and Ernst a chance, and since then a) Trump has screwed over ethanol producers by favoring petroleum producers and b) the floods in March knocked out any chance of it being a good harvest. Farmers’ positions are markedly worse than they were in February and Ernst has looked ineffective about helping them while also hugging trump.

I don’t think it’s a surprise that incumbents can be affected by events that are partially or totally outside their control. Famously, Obama took a beating from the BP oil spill and Ebola in africa.

You and other Atlas democrats should really stop assuming that Trump will suddenly lose the support of Farmers. He is not : https://www.agweb.com/article/farmer-support-trump-rebounds-amid-impeachment-inquiry

And no, Ernst is not losing, no matter what you want to believe

[Comrade Funk]

Selzer, which is the gold standard Iowa pollster, has Ernst at 57% approval.

How fresh is that poll? October, or a few weeks older?

It’s been an absolutely terrible year for Iowa farming and manufacturing. The floods in spring were devastating followed by the collapse of China trade talks.

But given how far to the right Iowa trended from 2016 to 2018, maybe she’s over 60% now.

So you are blaming the floods on Ernst ? That's crazy, even for a Atlas democrat

Yes, that’s precisely what I am doing. I am attributing the floods to Ernst. There is no other possible or more likely interpretation of what I meant. Thank you for clarifying things for everyone on this board.

So why are you even talking about floods on a thread about IA-SEN ?

Because Iowa’s farmers were in terrible shape before the floods because of the Trade War, and still willing to give Trump and Ernst a chance, and since then a) Trump has screwed over ethanol producers by favoring petroleum producers and b) the floods in March knocked out any chance of it being a good harvest. Farmers’ positions are markedly worse than they were in February and Ernst has looked ineffective about helping them while also hugging trump.

I don’t think it’s a surprise that incumbents can be affected by events that are partially or totally outside their control. Famously, Obama took a beating from the BP oil spill and Ebola in africa.

You and other Atlas democrats should really stop assuming that Trump will suddenly lose the support of Farmers. He is not : https://www.agweb.com/article/farmer-support-trump-rebounds-amid-impeachment-inquiry

And no, Ernst is not losing, no matter what you want to believe

You're a random French dude obsessing over Iowa politics. Holy sh**t.

[Frenchrepublican]

Selzer, which is the gold standard Iowa pollster, has Ernst at 57% approval.

How fresh is that poll? October, or a few weeks older?

It’s been an absolutely terrible year for Iowa farming and manufacturing. The floods in spring were devastating followed by the collapse of China trade talks.

But given how far to the right Iowa trended from 2016 to 2018, maybe she’s over 60% now.

So you are blaming the floods on Ernst ? That's crazy, even for a Atlas democrat

Yes, that’s precisely what I am doing. I am attributing the floods to Ernst. There is no other possible or more likely interpretation of what I meant. Thank you for clarifying things for everyone on this board.

So why are you even talking about floods on a thread about IA-SEN ?

Because Iowa’s farmers were in terrible shape before the floods because of the Trade War, and still willing to give Trump and Ernst a chance, and since then a) Trump has screwed over ethanol producers by favoring petroleum producers and b) the floods in March knocked out any chance of it being a good harvest. Farmers’ positions are markedly worse than they were in February and Ernst has looked ineffective about helping them while also hugging trump.

I don’t think it’s a surprise that incumbents can be affected by events that are partially or totally outside their control. Famously, Obama took a beating from the BP oil spill and Ebola in africa.

You and other Atlas democrats should really stop assuming that Trump will suddenly lose the support of Farmers. He is not : https://www.agweb.com/article/farmer-support-trump-rebounds-amid-impeachment-inquiry

And no, Ernst is not losing, no matter what you want to believe

You're a random French dude obsessing over Iowa politics. Amercian politics in general (not just Iowa politics) Holy sh**t.

Well, political stuff sucks in France.