IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[lfromnj]

IK its 2 years before the election but at this point I think its pretty likely that Texas Senate has a better chance of flipping than

[MT Treasurer]

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https://desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/columnists/2019/02/28/joni-ernst-defy-history-re-elected-2020-grassley-harkin-trump-senate-politics-elections-republicans/3016068002/

[lfromnj]

#populist >3 ad by a PAC in Iowa against Ernst. Using the squeal against her.
https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1101145781761912839?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7C...

[SnowLabrador]

I'm starting to think this is Safe R. Trump isn't losing Iowa, and Ernst isn't running behind Trump.

[Politician]

I'm starting to think this is Safe R. Trump isn't losing Iowa, and Ernst isn't running behind Trump.

*facepalm*

Are you a massive concern troll?

[SnowLabrador]

I'm starting to think this is Safe R. Trump isn't losing Iowa, and Ernst isn't running behind Trump.

*facepalm*

Are you a massive concern troll?

I'm not. I'm merely stating what I think. Trump won Iowa by 9 points in 2016, and I don't see the national environment being 9 points better for Democrats in 2020.

[Brittain33]

I'm starting to think this is Safe R. Trump isn't losing Iowa, and Ernst isn't running behind Trump.

*facepalm*

Are you a massive concern troll?

I'm not. I'm merely stating what I think. Trump won Iowa by 9 points in 2016, and I don't see the national environment being 9 points better for Democrats in 2020.

Even if all that is true, Safe R is for John Barrasso and Richard Shelby whose races will never be seriously contested and whose states are off the table for the D presidential nominee. Ernst is likely to face a solid Democratic opponent in a competitive presidential race. I think Likely R better describes your scenario.

[IceSpear]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/columnists/2019/02/28/joni-ernst-defy-history-re-elected-2020-grassley-harkin-trump-senate-politics-elections-republicans/3016068002/

LOL. Great #analysis Des Moines Register!

Yeah, I'm sure Ernst beat Braley because of "retail politics", not because:

1) It was a Republican wave year
2) Iowa was/is trending R
3) Braley made stupid gaffes

[PAK Man]

To address some points here:

- Braley lost the second he was caught on tape calling Chuck Grassley a "farmer from Iowa with no law degree." No matter what he did, he wasn't going to come back from that. Yes, he was 100% true, but farmers took that as a knock against them, and you do not upset the farmers in Iowa.

- The only reason Trump won Iowa by such a big margin is because of how much Clinton was hated. I have friends that believe in everything about the Democratic Party and were ardent Obama supporters, but HATED Clinton. Why? I have no idea, but all of them were ardent Sanders supporters. When he suspended his campaign, they all swarmed to Gary Johnson. Trust me when I say, without Clinton on the ballot, Democrats are going to do a whole lot better.

2018 was actually Democrats' best election cycle in several years in Iowa. They picked up a state office they haven't held since the '60s (state auditor), picked up two U.S. House seats, almost picked up a third, and just barely lost the governors' mansion. All things considered, I think that's a great sign for Democrats, and they'd be completely foolish to not seriously challenge Ernst.

[Jon Tester]

Morning Consult has Trump's approval in Iowa (-8) lower than in Nevada (-7) and Arizona (-7).

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

[Frenchrepublican]

Morning Consult has Trump's approval in Iowa (-8) lower than in Nevada (-7) and Arizona (-7).

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

Morning consult is a bad pollster, last year they had Trump underwater in ND and IN. The problem is that they are doing a big national poll and then they extrapolate state numbers from the national poll, but when you do this you can easily end up with a unrepresentative sample of the state in question

[indietraveler]

To address some points here:

- Braley lost the second he was caught on tape calling Chuck Grassley a "farmer from Iowa with no law degree." No matter what he did, he wasn't going to come back from that. Yes, he was 100% true, but farmers took that as a knock against them, and you do not upset the farmers in Iowa.

- The only reason Trump won Iowa by such a big margin is because of how much Clinton was hated. I have friends that believe in everything about the Democratic Party and were ardent Obama supporters, but HATED Clinton. Why? I have no idea, but all of them were ardent Sanders supporters. When he suspended his campaign, they all swarmed to Gary Johnson. Trust me when I say, without Clinton on the ballot, Democrats are going to do a whole lot better.

2018 was actually Democrats' best election cycle in several years in Iowa. They picked up a state office they haven't held since the '60s (state auditor), picked up two U.S. House seats, almost picked up a third, and just barely lost the governors' mansion. All things considered, I think that's a great sign for Democrats, and they'd be completely foolish to not seriously challenge Ernst.

Agree with this. Trump's 9 point win was at 51% when everyone is acting like it was in the mid-50s. A combination of the environment in 2016 and the dislike of Clinton is what got him that margin. This was a weak 9 point win. I know way too many democrats here who wrote in Sanders, voted 3rd party, or just didn't vote upon Clinton winning the nomination.

Iowa is definitely lean R, but this whole talk of "it shouldn't be contested anymore" is crazy. The right D candidate would win.

However, I do think Ernst will outperform Trump by a noticeable margin here. I won't be surprised if she gets reelected and Trump loses the state if he's up against Biden or Sanders. Anyone perceived as a coastal elitist will have a harder time.

[freepcrusher]

To address some points here:

- Braley lost the second he was caught on tape calling Chuck Grassley a "farmer from Iowa with no law degree." No matter what he did, he wasn't going to come back from that. Yes, he was 100% true, but farmers took that as a knock against them, and you do not upset the farmers in Iowa.

- The only reason Trump won Iowa by such a big margin is because of how much Clinton was hated. I have friends that believe in everything about the Democratic Party and were ardent Obama supporters, but HATED Clinton. Why? I have no idea, but all of them were ardent Sanders supporters. When he suspended his campaign, they all swarmed to Gary Johnson. Trust me when I say, without Clinton on the ballot, Democrats are going to do a whole lot better.

2018 was actually Democrats' best election cycle in several years in Iowa. They picked up a state office they haven't held since the '60s (state auditor), picked up two U.S. House seats, almost picked up a third, and just barely lost the governors' mansion. All things considered, I think that's a great sign for Democrats, and they'd be completely foolish to not seriously challenge Ernst.

Agree with this. Trump's 9 point win was at 51% when everyone is acting like it was in the mid-50s. A combination of the environment in 2016 and the dislike of Clinton is what got him that margin. This was a weak 9 point win. I know way too many democrats here who wrote in Sanders, voted 3rd party, or just didn't vote upon Clinton winning the nomination.

Iowa is definitely lean R, but this whole talk of "it shouldn't be contested anymore" is crazy. The right D candidate would win.

However, I do think Ernst will outperform Trump by a noticeable margin here. I won't be surprised if she gets reelected and Trump loses the state if he's up against Biden or Sanders. Anyone perceived as a coastal elitist will have a harder time.

I thought this too but the fact that Fred Hubbell couldn't take out a non-incumbent governor means it will be harder to defeat Ernst. Let's not forget that Hubbell is from a family that practically built Iowa.

[SnowLabrador]

Theresa Greenfield is in: https://twitter.com/greenfieldiowa/status/1135532671696814080?s=21

I'm worried. She's from Des Moines.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Greenfield looks like a C-lister, yawn.

[Jeppe]

Greenfield is an insurance candidate, I guess. But who knows, maybe she’ll end up being a strong candidate. A lot of the Democratic congressional candidates last year had low-profiles before running but ended up being very good candidates.

[UncleSam]

To address some points here:

- Braley lost the second he was caught on tape calling Chuck Grassley a "farmer from Iowa with no law degree." No matter what he did, he wasn't going to come back from that. Yes, he was 100% true, but farmers took that as a knock against them, and you do not upset the farmers in Iowa.

- The only reason Trump won Iowa by such a big margin is because of how much Clinton was hated. I have friends that believe in everything about the Democratic Party and were ardent Obama supporters, but HATED Clinton. Why? I have no idea, but all of them were ardent Sanders supporters. When he suspended his campaign, they all swarmed to Gary Johnson. Trust me when I say, without Clinton on the ballot, Democrats are going to do a whole lot better.

2018 was actually Democrats' best election cycle in several years in Iowa. They picked up a state office they haven't held since the '60s (state auditor), picked up two U.S. House seats, almost picked up a third, and just barely lost the governors' mansion. All things considered, I think that's a great sign for Democrats, and they'd be completely foolish to not seriously challenge Ernst.

Agree with this. Trump's 9 point win was at 51% when everyone is acting like it was in the mid-50s. A combination of the environment in 2016 and the dislike of Clinton is what got him that margin. This was a weak 9 point win. I know way too many democrats here who wrote in Sanders, voted 3rd party, or just didn't vote upon Clinton winning the nomination.

Iowa is definitely lean R, but this whole talk of "it shouldn't be contested anymore" is crazy. The right D candidate would win.

However, I do think Ernst will outperform Trump by a noticeable margin here. I won't be surprised if she gets reelected and Trump loses the state if he's up against Biden or Sanders. Anyone perceived as a coastal elitist will have a harder time.

It should be contested, but I think you’re misrepresenting the climb Dems have in Iowa. Sure Trump ‘only’ got 51% and some change on his own, but Johnson only got 3.75%. Even if Johnson voters in Iowa are more liberal than Johnson voters nationally, simply winning people who voted for him won’t cut it or even come close. Stein only got .75% (and got fewer votes than McMullin), and there was also a Constitution party candidate on the ballot who got almost half a percent. In other words, there are more third-party vote sources that should in theory back Trump in a two way race than should back a Dem among the 7.5% of third party voters, and even if you assume a lot of those were disaffected Obama voters (they probably are), those are also voters who are voting for Rs at every level of government right now (with the possible exception of Steve King). It’s hard for me to see those voters breaking too disproportionately Dem in 2020.

To compete in Iowa, Dems need to swing a significant number of Trump voters back to their camp AND incite a surge of enthusiasm among their base ala 2018. It’s just a very tough lift for any candidate - though Biden probably has as good a chance as anyone of the current group.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.desmoinesregister.com/amp/1327605001

Teresa Greenfield says she plans on Senate run

[PAK Man]

Greenfield may be from Des Moines, but unlike Fred Hubbell, she doesn't come off as a rich guy running for office just because they can. I really liked her opening campaign video and think she can run a credible campaign against Ernst. Plus, at least she's not freaking Eddie Mauro (ugh).

Endorsed.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Greenfield may be from Des Moines, but unlike Fred Hubbell, she doesn't come off as a rich guy running for office just because they can. I really liked her opening campaign video and think she can run a credible campaign against Ernst. Plus, at least she's not freaking Eddie Mauro (ugh).

Endorsed.

I mean she is obviously the best candidate announced so far no doubt, but I want to wait to see if we can pull someone better before going all in for her.

[PAK Man]

Greenfield may be from Des Moines, but unlike Fred Hubbell, she doesn't come off as a rich guy running for office just because they can. I really liked her opening campaign video and think she can run a credible campaign against Ernst. Plus, at least she's not freaking Eddie Mauro (ugh).

Endorsed.

I mean she is obviously the best candidate announced so far no doubt, but I want to wait to see if we can pull someone better before going all in for her.

The only other credible candidate I think may run is Scholten. Axne's already running for reelection (and I wouldn't want her to run anyway) and Finkenauer has not expressed any interest in running. Rita Hart is running for Loebsack's seat, and nobody else seems to have an interest in going for it.

[voice_of_resistance]

I think Scholten probably will not run for Senate because Greenfield is running a similarly-themed campaign to him. Also her and Mathis will make a competitive primary. And Steve King is not getting any less racist, so my guess is that he runs again for the 4th district.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ, CO and NC and a Roy Moore nomination in AL, will give Dems the Senate,  at anyrate

[Nyvin]

Trump is becoming toxic to Iowa farmers, I wonder if that'll play a roll.

[libertpaulian]

To address some points here:

- Braley lost the second he was caught on tape calling Chuck Grassley a "farmer from Iowa with no law degree." No matter what he did, he wasn't going to come back from that. Yes, he was 100% true, but farmers took that as a knock against them, and you do not upset the farmers in Iowa.

- The only reason Trump won Iowa by such a big margin is because of how much Clinton was hated. I have friends that believe in everything about the Democratic Party and were ardent Obama supporters, but HATED Clinton. Why? I have no idea, but all of them were ardent Sanders supporters. When he suspended his campaign, they all swarmed to Gary Johnson. Trust me when I say, without Clinton on the ballot, Democrats are going to do a whole lot better.

2018 was actually Democrats' best election cycle in several years in Iowa. They picked up a state office they haven't held since the '60s (state auditor), picked up two U.S. House seats, almost picked up a third, and just barely lost the governors' mansion. All things considered, I think that's a great sign for Democrats, and they'd be completely foolish to not seriously challenge Ernst.

Agree with this. Trump's 9 point win was at 51% when everyone is acting like it was in the mid-50s. A combination of the environment in 2016 and the dislike of Clinton is what got him that margin. This was a weak 9 point win. I know way too many democrats here who wrote in Sanders, voted 3rd party, or just didn't vote upon Clinton winning the nomination.

Iowa is definitely lean R, but this whole talk of "it shouldn't be contested anymore" is crazy. The right D candidate would win.

However, I do think Ernst will outperform Trump by a noticeable margin here. I won't be surprised if she gets reelected and Trump loses the state if he's up against Biden or Sanders. Anyone perceived as a coastal elitist will have a harder time.

I thought this too but the fact that Fred Hubbell couldn't take out a non-incumbent governor means it will be harder to defeat Ernst. Let's not forget that Hubbell is from a family that practically built Iowa.

The guy sat on the board of f[inks]ing PLANNED PARENTHOOD.  Something like that doesn't fly in a state like Iowa...