Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does the Taliban control Afghanistan's UN vote? I was thinking the UN doesn't recognize the de facto government that controls Afghanistan.

It doesn't. But the de facto result would be the same either way, most likely.

[WMS]

Map of results of UN vote condemning Russia. China's influence in this conflict is very obvious and they are not behaving as the "neutral" party they wish others to believe (hello there, African investments!):

India excepted the yellow and red on that map make a pretty good approximation of the respective Chinese and Russian SoI.

And Vietnam, which hates China and is closely aligned with the US these days on most Asian matters. Not sure what they think about Russia, though.

Vietnam is probably what Ukraine is to Russia.  Overall its vote is probably close to why India  is absent as well.

Well that explains Laos, which is basically a colony of Vietnam.

And perhaps that explains Cambodia and Thailand voting Yes, because while neither of them gives a crap about human rights, they care very much about not becoming dominated by Vietnam, China, or India. As I staunchly believe and have said recently, every time I read or hear about someone getting off to “the BRICS will overthrow the Western world order” I immediately look to their neighbors, who somehow aren’t enthusiastic about that…

Isn't Laos more a colony of China as opposed to Vietnam?

Nope. You may be thinking of Cambodia, whose vote was a surprise.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Map of results of UN vote condemning Russia. China's influence in this conflict is very obvious and they are not behaving as the "neutral" party they wish others to believe (hello there, African investments!):

India excepted the yellow and red on that map make a pretty good approximation of the respective Chinese and Russian SoI.

And Vietnam, which hates China and is closely aligned with the US these days on most Asian matters. Not sure what they think about Russia, though.

Vietnam is probably what Ukraine is to Russia.  Overall its vote is probably close to why India  is absent as well.

Well that explains Laos, which is basically a colony of Vietnam.

And perhaps that explains Cambodia and Thailand voting Yes, because while neither of them gives a crap about human rights, they care very much about not becoming dominated by Vietnam, China, or India. As I staunchly believe and have said recently, every time I read or hear about someone getting off to “the BRICS will overthrow the Western world order” I immediately look to their neighbors, who somehow aren’t enthusiastic about that…

Isn't Laos more a colony of China as opposed to Vietnam?

Nope. You may be thinking of Cambodia, whose vote was a surprise.

Huh. I read somewhere that Laos was basically a colony of China because of how immensely poor it was, resulting in loads of Chinese influence there.
Thanks for informing me.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Personally, I'd guess the figure is at least 3,000 Russians killed. If you assume the ratio of injured to deaths is 3:1 (after all, what official Kremiln ratio is 498: 1500), that's 9,000 injured. An army, even as large as Russia's, having more than 10,000 casualties in 7 days is not sustainable.

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1499148057610489859?s=20&t=QTFsbDSW...

The Soviets had around 15,000 killed in the 10 year Soviet-Afghan war. This war could surpass that in a few weeks.

[2952-0-0]

https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1499008228700700689

Whatever else you say about Marco Rubio, his membership in the Senate Intelligence Committee means he's not BSing.
https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1499162278243016704

https://twitter.com/atanessi/status/1498720678060728321

https://twitter.com/rolltidebmz/status/1499195050336657413

[NOVA Green]

Just recently came home from work and read through the posts on this thread since I last logged on to see which updates had been posted.

Overall looks much quieter than yesterday with much of the attention focusing on the UN General Assembly Vote.

Other items mentioned have been potential life in the Polish MiG transfer, stingers delivered to Ukraine, Romanian air assets going down in bad weather, another bad Russian paratrooper drop.

Seen a few others items such the seizure of an oligarch Yacht in Germany, Russian-Belarusian students banned from Hockey in Canada, etc....

A few more light hearted items such as Russian troops battling doors and Ukrainian farmers "doubling-down" (literally) on towing Russian Military hardware home knowing that they won't have to pay taxes.

Did I miss anything aside from a few personal irrelevant items involving posters opinions of China and "opinions of XYZ" activities, side tangents involving Iraq War 2.0, etc...?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1499008228700700689
Whatever else you say about Marco Rubio, his membership in the Senate Intelligence Committee means he's not BSing.
https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1499162278243016704

I don't know why, but these tweets made me very anxious. Both for the folks in Russia that can't/won't get out & the rest of the world

[Stranger in a strange land]

Does the Taliban control Afghanistan's UN vote? I was thinking the UN doesn't recognize the de facto government that controls Afghanistan.

It doesn't. But the de facto result would be the same either way, most likely.

Not a single country has recognized the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan, not even Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, or the UAE, who were the only ones to recognize them when they governed the country last time.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does the Taliban control Afghanistan's UN vote? I was thinking the UN doesn't recognize the de facto government that controls Afghanistan.

It doesn't. But the de facto result would be the same either way, most likely.

Not a single country has recognized the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan, not even Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, or the UAE, who were the only ones to recognize them when they governed the country last time.

Oh,  I wasn't talking about that. I was talking about how it wouldn't make a difference IF their UN representative was casting the vote.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Just recently came home from work and read through the posts on this thread since I last logged on to see which updates had been posted.

Overall looks much quieter than yesterday with much of the attention focusing on the UN General Assembly Vote.

Other items mentioned have been potential life in the Polish MiG transfer, stingers delivered to Ukraine, Romanian air assets going down in bad weather, another bad Russian paratrooper drop.

Seen a few others items such the seizure of an oligarch Yacht in Germany, Russian-Belarusian students banned from Hockey in Canada, etc....

A few more light hearted items such as Russian troops battling doors and Ukrainian farmers "doubling-down" (literally) on towing Russian Military hardware home knowing that they won't have to pay taxes.

Did I miss anything aside from a few personal irrelevant items involving posters opinions of China and "opinions of XYZ" activities, side tangents involving Iraq War 2.0, etc...?

Welcome back! I don't think a lot changed today. Russia hasn't really gotten what it needs to pull out a victory, and there were UN votes and such.

[NOVA Green]

On the Russian side (Don't believe anybody else has posted this yet), Russians are leaving for Finland per NYT:

That along with a few other items posters have noted, makes one wonder if we will see a second refugee crisis in Europe as a direct result of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine.

"High-speed trains departing Russia for Finland are packed.

Until this weekend, the daily high-speed trains from St. Petersburg to Helsinki would typically transport far fewer than the several hundred passengers each could accommodate. But on Saturday, a wave of travelers looking to leave Russia started packing trains destined for Finland.

“We’ve had full trains from St. Petersburg from Sunday onward,” Topi Simola, the senior vice president of passenger services at Finnish Railways, said in a telephone interview.

“They are leaving for good,” he said. “You can see that from the luggage they carry.”

Tatjana Erofgeva, who lives in Budapest, was visiting relatives in Russia when the invasion started, according to the Finnish newspaper Hufvudstadsbladet. She took the morning train to Helsinki on Monday.

“It was the only way out of Russia,” Ms. Erofgeva was quoted as saying, noting that many countries had closed their airspace to Russian flights since the invasion of Ukraine last Thursday.

The Allegro line takes 3.5 hours to travel the roughly 250 miles from St. Petersburg to Helsinki. The service is a joint venture between the Finnish VR Group and Russian Railways, which are both state-owned companies.

The line was suspended during the pandemic, but started running again at half capacity in December. Two trains leave St. Petersburg a day, and tickets are only available to Finnish and Russian nationals.

“This route is an important way out of Russia,” Mr. Simola, the Finnish rail official, said, and his organization was negotiating with Russian Railways to increase service, aiming eventually to resume the prepandemic schedule of four trips a day.

A Russian who stepped off the train in Helsinki on Tuesday evening told the Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet that many people back home, including friends, were having a difficult time leaving the country because so many Russians do not have passports.

“Many are afraid because of the economic situation,” said the man, who was identified only by his first name, Anton.

“A lot of Russians don’t support the war and are trying to protest,” he told the newspaper. “But unfortunately the police are quite tough now.”

"




https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/02/world/europe/trains-russia-finland.html

[Frodo]

I can’t help but notice that Afghanistan is green. Does that mean that THE TALIBAN are condemning the Russian invasion? The TALIBAN??

Given Afghanistan has been invaded by Russia before (and that's indirectly how the Taliban came to power), it actually wouldn't shock me if a Taliban UN Representative would have voted against Russia on this.

For all that could be said about the American rule in Afghanistan, I feel that sentiment in both the Taliban's internal ranks and Afghanistan as a whole would sooner be friendly to America than Russia anyway. Afghanistan is closer to and probably more concerned with Russia than America at the end of the day, and the war the Soviets fought in Afghanistan had significantly worse results for the country than the American one.

Looking at the casualty figures in Afghanistan, there really is no comparison at the end of the day.  They suffered far more at the hands of the Soviets in ten years than they ever did at the hands of the Americans in twenty:

Civilian casualties in the war in Afghanistan (2001–2021)

Soviet–Afghan War

I know it is cold comfort to the victims' families, but it does help to have some perspective.  I know the Taliban do, hence their decision to tacitly side with the United States against Russia over the latter's invasion of Ukraine.  

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I can’t help but notice that Afghanistan is green. Does that mean that THE TALIBAN are condemning the Russian invasion? The TALIBAN??

Given Afghanistan has been invaded by Russia before (and that's indirectly how the Taliban came to power), it actually wouldn't shock me if a Taliban UN Representative would have voted against Russia on this.

For all that could be said about the American rule in Afghanistan, I feel that sentiment in both the Taliban's internal ranks and Afghanistan as a whole would sooner be friendly to America than Russia anyway. Afghanistan is closer to and probably more concerned with Russia than America at the end of the day, and the war the Soviets fought in Afghanistan had significantly worse results for the country than the American one.

Looking at the casualty figures in Afghanistan, there really is no comparison at the end of the day:

Civilian casualties in the war in Afghanistan (2001–2021)

Soviet–Afghan War

I know it is cold comfort to the victims' families, but it does help to have some perspective.  I know the Taliban do, hence their decision to tacitly side with the United States against Russia over the latter's invasion of Ukraine. 

It goes beyond that as well, though you are absolutely correct there is no comparison in fatalities.
The Americans left a lot of infastructure that the Taliban probably has plans to use (such as school buildings and roads). Compare that to bombed shells of parts of Afghan cities and the land mines the Soviets left all over Afghanistan.
There is no comparison. America did help nation-build Afghanistan; it just was the case that the puppet government we set up was too corrupt to be able to hold what it had.

[NOVA Green]

It appears that sections of the political elite within Russia are breaking with the current regime regarding Putin's Ukraine policy per NYT:

This is a big effing deal. As someone who way back in my Political Science days in academia, the collapse of confidence among the East German DDR elites starting in the late '70s and reaching critical mass by the late '80s was the major contributor to the collapse of the regime (Regardless of Soviet actions)

"
March 2, 2022, 3:43 p.m. ETMarch 2, 2022

Constant MéheutReporting from Paris

Nearly 1,500 former students of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, an elite university run by Russia’s foreign ministry, have signed an open letter condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine. “Withdraw troops from Ukraine, stop bombing Ukrainian cities, and begin an honest negotiation process,” the letter reads, stating an opposition that is all the more symbolic as it comes from alumni of a university that has formed generations of Russian diplomats, including Sergey Lavrov, the country’s current Foreign Affairs Minister. "

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/02/world/ukraine-russia-war#trains-russia-finland

[BG-NY]

Is Moldavia going to be next?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I can't believe I have to say this: please stop posting Marco Rubio tweets into this thread as if he's a credible analyst or commentator. He's a political operator who played a significant role in trying to orchestrate a failed plot to remove Maduro in Venezuela. As part of this, he routinely bluffed and lied, acting as a propagandist along the way. Your instinct should be to see anything he has to say as serving some kind of political purpose. If one isn't a bloodthirsty hawk, your instinct should be to see his political purpose as adding a giant section to Arlington cemetery.

More generally, I encourage just about everyone on here to reflect more about the consequences of significantly ratcheting up tensions further in Ukraine. Would you actually be willing to commit your country's soldiers into this conflict even if that risked potential escalation to using nuclear weapons? Even if that chance was remote, it should make you pause. Even if that chance were nonexistent, would you feel comfortable suffering an actual energy crisis where all natural gas exports from Russia were stopped? Would you feel comfortable with the threat of severe and crippling cyberattacks?

Basically, a lot of the cavalier attitudes that I am seeing here strike me as being utterly irrational, foolish and sometimes unhinged. They disturb me because they reflect the public's mood and, lord knows, maybe with one unfortunate perturbation, some freak accident, we could actually be pulled into this war. At heart, just about none of you should want that. And you should be cautious of politicians who are willing to use soldiers as cannon fodder to advance their political careers. The loss of this skepticism is a terrible thing - cling to it. Never forget what they've done in the past.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Is Moldavia going to be next?

It's possible that Russia might want to invade them or Georgia, but we don't know.

[Frodo]

I can’t help but notice that Afghanistan is green. Does that mean that THE TALIBAN are condemning the Russian invasion? The TALIBAN??

Given Afghanistan has been invaded by Russia before (and that's indirectly how the Taliban came to power), it actually wouldn't shock me if a Taliban UN Representative would have voted against Russia on this.

For all that could be said about the American rule in Afghanistan, I feel that sentiment in both the Taliban's internal ranks and Afghanistan as a whole would sooner be friendly to America than Russia anyway. Afghanistan is closer to and probably more concerned with Russia than America at the end of the day, and the war the Soviets fought in Afghanistan had significantly worse results for the country than the American one.

Looking at the casualty figures in Afghanistan, there really is no comparison at the end of the day:

Civilian casualties in the war in Afghanistan (2001–2021)

Soviet–Afghan War

I know it is cold comfort to the victims' families, but it does help to have some perspective.  I know the Taliban do, hence their decision to tacitly side with the United States against Russia over the latter's invasion of Ukraine.  

It goes beyond that as well, though you are absolutely correct there is no comparison in fatalities.
The Americans left a lot of infastructure that the Taliban probably has plans to use (such as school buildings and roads). Compare that to bombed shells of parts of Afghan cities and the land mines the Soviets left all over Afghanistan.
There is no comparison. America did help nation-build Afghanistan; it just was the case that the puppet government we set up was too corrupt to be able to hold what it had.

It is also worth mentioning that the Soviets deliberately killed civilians, committed atrocities, and destroyed villages and infrastructure as a matter of policy in a desperate bid to suppress all resistance to their occupation.  We, on the other hand, tried not to during our time in Afghanistan.  

[Frodo]

One million refugees have fled Ukraine since start of invasion: UN

[DaleCooper]

One million refugees have fled Ukraine since start of invasion: UN

This is another reason why I don't understand the isolationists. They're so scared of refugees and immigrants that you'd think they'd want do whatever they can to put a stop to Putin so that fewer refugees end up here.

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile, the "Beeb" (BBC) turns to "Old Skool Tech" to provide their content via radio to Ukraine as well as parts of Russia.

"
March 2, 2022, 9:40 p.m. ET39 minutes ago

Jesus Jimenez

The B.B.C. announced on Wednesday that it had turned to an old-fashioned form of radio broadcasting to keep Ukrainians informed about the war. The broadcasting company said it had launched two new shortwave frequencies, which can be heard on cheap, portable devices, that can be received clearly in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv and parts of Russia. The B.B.C said it will broadcast four hours of World Service news in English a day on the shortwave frequencies, a move that recalls an era in Europe when the British broadcaster was one of the few sources of independent news in Eastern Europe during World War II and the Cold War."

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/02/world/ukraine-russia-war#trains-russia-finland

(Apologies for interjecting a musical interlude, and promise this won't be a regular habit on this thread, but hell seemed appropriate)

[WMS]

Re: The Russians fleeing Russia

I finally remembered this. If you want to see what Putin really intends for the people under his rule, don’t look at Russia (yet). Look at Crimea and Eastern Donbas, where he has no restrictions whatsoever. They are utter pits of repression for most Russians, much less any non-Russians.

The Russians are fleeing because they see the writing on the wall. Putin is extinguishing what little freedom is left in Russia. If it wasn’t already apparent by now, he gives not a solitary f*** about Russians, the people, at all, only “Russia”, the name of his empire of terror.

[NOVA Green]

Here are the Problems with assessing Civilian Casualties in Ukraine per NYT:

This obviously will make ICC and War Crimes harder to prove (Should any have occurred, although Social Media has potentially provided data points perhaps less available in recent wars).


"Reports of civilian casualties rise in Ukraine, but exact counts remain uncertain.

As the bombing of civilian targets in Ukraine intensified on Wednesday, reports of civilian casualties escalated. It was not immediately possible for The New York Times to provide an independent estimate, and, as is often the case in war zones, reports diverged.

The United Nations said that 227 civilians had been killed and 525 injured between Feb. 24, when the invasion began, and March 1, but has noted that its numbers are likely undercounts.

Shelling from heavy artillery, multilaunch rocket systems and airstrikes were responsible for most of the casualties, according to the U.N. Human Rights Office, which is leading the U.N.’s count.

Casualty counts in times of war can be skewed by many factors, including partisan propaganda, the fluidity and unpredictability of attacks and security threats to those officially tasked with assessing tolls.

“It is particularly difficult in the context of Ukraine, with misinformation circulating,” Ravina Shamdasani, a spokeswoman for the U.N. Human Rights Office, said in an email. “Over the past week, they have definitely been underestimates.”

Ms. Shamdasani said that the only reason her agency was able to provide figures at all was that it had been documenting civilian casualties since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014.

The U.N. Human Rights Office’s tally represents the casualties it has been able to independently verify, assess as credible and crosscheck with multiple sources, by such means as interviewing witnesses, the injured and relatives of the dead, and consulting local authorities, law enforcement officials and the military. The agency also uses court records; data from hospitals, photos and videos; and information from international and local nongovernmental organizations to corroborate its tally.

...."

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/02/world/europe/ukraine-civilian-casualties.html

[The Free North]

I can't believe I have to say this: please stop posting Marco Rubio tweets into this thread as if he's a credible analyst or commentator. He's a political operator who played a significant role in trying to orchestrate a failed plot to remove Maduro in Venezuela. As part of this, he routinely bluffed and lied, acting as a propagandist along the way. Your instinct should be to see anything he has to say as serving some kind of political purpose. If one isn't a bloodthirsty hawk, your instinct should be to see his political purpose as adding a giant section to Arlington cemetery.

More generally, I encourage just about everyone on here to reflect more about the consequences of significantly ratcheting up tensions further in Ukraine. Would you actually be willing to commit your country's soldiers into this conflict even if that risked potential escalation to using nuclear weapons? Even if that chance was remote, it should make you pause. Even if that chance were nonexistent, would you feel comfortable suffering an actual energy crisis where all natural gas exports from Russia were stopped? Would you feel comfortable with the threat of severe and crippling cyberattacks?

Basically, a lot of the cavalier attitudes that I am seeing here strike me as being utterly irrational, foolish and sometimes unhinged. They disturb me because they reflect the public's mood and, lord knows, maybe with one unfortunate perturbation, some freak accident, we could actually be pulled into this war. At heart, just about none of you should want that. And you should be cautious of politicians who are willing to use soldiers as cannon fodder to advance their political careers. The loss of this skepticism is a terrible thing - cling to it. Never forget what they've done in the past.

I don't disagree with the second and third paragraphs. You're not wrong on the Rubio transgressions in Latam either, however.....

I completely disagree with the original Rubio point. He's on the senate intelligence committee and his tweets have been dead accurate thus far. Senator Murphy of CT, I believe, has been posting some intel as well. He's not willing the US to war or providing any commentary. Its just facts of what Putin has done or is doing.

There is nothing wrong with that. Some moments are larger than Rep/Dem divides. This is one of them. That's how I read Rubio's actions at least.

[Frodo]

Millions of Russians turn to BBC for news amid invasion of Ukraine

Russia tells VOA to halt Ukraine coverage or be blocked