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Trump, though neither side is running a good campaign. Biden should just not be running again after 9% inflation.

So any actual status updates?

Somewhere between too early and too close.

I've kind of finally been beaten down enough where I am getting concerned...at least somewhat. In five months a lot already happened, and a lot more is still coming around the corner where Biden still shouldn't be written off, and Trump shouldn't be considered a shoo-in.

I will maintain that Trump does not win the popular vote or win in anywhere near a landslide. He only wins due to third parties or an enthusiasm gap-much like 2016. Hell, I don't even think he wins the rust belt trio-if at all-by more than a point from his 2016 margins.

I agree with most of this.

[But if he didn't want to be President anymore, he shouldn't have run for reelection.]

Trump. Not only is Biden going to lose, he's trying to lose.

What makes you think that he is trying to lose?
Why would he want Trump to win?

He's flip-flopping on Israel/Gaza instead of taking a position and sticking to it. It might be a lose-lose situation, but he's managing to infuriate both sides. As to why he wants Trump to win, I'm not entirely sure - that's the main hole. Maybe he doesn't want to deliver what his base wants. But if he didn't want to be President anymore, he shouldn't have run for reelection.

I don't think that he'd be running if he didn't want to win.

He's running because his handlers want him to.

[But if he didn't want to be President anymore, he shouldn't have run for reelection.]

Trump. Not only is Biden going to lose, he's trying to lose.

What makes you think that he is trying to lose?
Why would he want Trump to win?

He's flip-flopping on Israel/Gaza instead of taking a position and sticking to it. It might be a lose-lose situation, but he's managing to infuriate both sides. As to why he wants Trump to win, I'm not entirely sure - that's the main hole. Maybe he doesn't want to deliver what his base wants. But if he didn't want to be President anymore, he shouldn't have run for reelection.

I don't think that he'd be running if he didn't want to win.

My prediction is consistent with a narrow Biden victory and feeling better than pre sotu

Almost no doubt. And both sides (more so the Dems) will flush millions of dollars of taxpayer money again in doing so.

It doesn't take much for a cult leader to "charm" their legions of suckers.

This is not worthy of a thread.

He has a good chance here. Biden is expanding the map in the wrong direction.

He will absolutely do something deserving of it.