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https://x.com/Politics_Polls/status/1795652949768867857

If Trump is only winning by 2 in his internal 46/44 he is toast

That might have been true twenty years ago but the median Alliance voter of twenty years ago is not the median Alliance voter of now - predominantly neutral or very soft nationalist on the border issue but for whom it's not a priority, and closer to the SDLP than to any of the other parties. As far as tactical voting goes, it's not as if Claire Hanna's majority last time was predominantly based on SDLP votes.

In all of the seats Alliance could conceivably win at this election, their challengers are the DUP (or in the case of North Down, a DUP-backed independent). Yes, they will be grateful for as many nationalist tactical votes as they can get, but at the end of the day, these are all seats with a clear Protestant majority, and accordingly you need to get a lot of unionist votes if you want to win them. A pact with Sinn Fein would be the safest way for Alliance to ensure they didn’t win a single Westminster seat.

I don’t think your point about the SDLP is a counter to what I said (except that yes, I was admittedly perhaps wrong to assert that Alliance’s core supporters were necessarily unionists — of course the ‘moderate’ part still stands); they are, needless to say, a very different kettle of fish from Sinn Fein, especially someone like Claire Hanna, who has been extremely critical of the more ostentatiously nationalist elements within her own party, let alone Sinn Fein.

"Protestant" is not the shorthand for "Unionist" that it used to be, especially since Brexit and we're not talking in any case about a formal pact between Alliance and SF rather than an awareness on the part of voters of both sides as to who not to let in.

My view of the Hanna/O'Toole wing of the SDLP is that they are a bunch of strategic dunces who got lucky in 2019 - largely because the now-reviled Alastair McDonnell spent three decades getting the SDLP into the position of being the most obvious non-Unionist option in Belfast South - and who have absolutely no understanding of where their party's core vote is and a fixation on emulating the slow-motion car crash that is the Irish Labour Party.

[snip]
Europe:

Greece is most obvious, but Liechtenstein likely comes later this year too.

[snip]

You were correct (most folks here have probably already heard Greece legalized SSM):

May 16th: "This will allow Liechtenstein, like its neighbouring countries, to marry same-sex couples. The proposal will come into force at the beginning of next year"

Mary Peltola and/or Marie Gluesenkamp Perez losing

[Treaty of Caserta]

Treaty of Caserta

Recognizing and reaffirming the kinship, historic ties, and military cooperation between their two realms, His Imperial Majesty Kaiser Francis II and His Majesty King Ferdinand agree to the following:

1. A pact of mutual defense will be adopted between the two realms effective immediately. An attack on either party will be treated as an attack on both.

2. The Habsburg Monarchy, in its tremendous generosity, will provide the government of Naples with a significant annual stipend. To be used to increase the prosperity, industry, and infrastructure of the Neapolitan realm.

3. A deputation of Imperial military advisors will be dispatched to Naples to disseminate latest military tactics and training methods for the Neapolitan Armed Forces.

4. Recognizing Naples' esteemed maritime history, a deputation of Neapolitan admirals will be dispatched to Habsburg naval bases at Trieste, Pola, and Fiume to share their expertise regarding shipbuilding, naval tactics, and navigation.

5. The two powers reaffirm the importance of a secure Adriatic and will engage in periodic joint naval exercises to ensure the tranquility of said sea.

6. In their historic roles as Holy Roman Emperor and King of Naples and Sicily (historically a Papal fief), Francis II and Ferdinand agree to respect and defend the Holy See from any future depredations and revolutionary violence.

X Kaiser Franz II

X- Queen Consort Maria Carolina von Habsburg-Lothringen, on behalf of her beloved husband, His Majesty King Ferdinand IV de Bourbon of Naples

Gonna disagree with most people here and say that I don’t think it has much to do with the War (it’s kind of incredible how little that colors perceptions of the country itself today all things considered). More broadly, Westerners don’t pay much attention to the politics of non-Western countries (other than Palestine, I guess) unless they’re paid to or have a family connection.

Like even on this forum full of international politics nerds, this is one of the first threads about Vietnam, a 100M+ people, rapidly-developing economy of growing geopolitical import.

Eh, I agree with your first sentence but I am not sure I fully agree with the rest. I think there's something specific about Vietnam where Westerners know less about it than a lot of other non-Western countries (you point out the scarcity of threads even here, which I believe would stand out if you picked a different developing country of 100M+ people in comparison); I would surmise a guess that that's because it has a very stable system of government with no notable conflicts since the one everyone talks about, and in addition it is not an electoral democracy making it uninteresting to us nerds.

They're on their third president in two years! Though to be fair to you, I didn't know that until I was writing this reply haha.

With the note that the forum in general has gotten a lot worse wrt international news over the years (even as broader media coverage has gotten better for Anglophones), idk if we even have a single active general discussion thread for an Asian country other than Israel now that jaichind's gone, even the bigger ones.

It's a 270/319 map, TX and FL aren't in play, they were fools gold

We know the balance of power in S is 47/49/4 OH, NEB, MT, MD are 4 tossups, WV is Lean R but there hasn't been any polls in OH, MT or WV and NE we have only seen a tight race

Probably Kari Lake getting elected

Absolute girlboss.

[Treaty of Caserta]

Treaty of Caserta

Recognizing and reaffirming the kinship, historic ties, and military cooperation between their two realms, His Imperial Majesty Kaiser Francis II and His Majesty King Ferdinand agree to the following:

1. A pact of mutual defense will be adopted between the two realms effective immediately. An attack on either party will be treated as an attack on both.

2. The Habsburg Monarchy, in its tremendous generosity, will provide the government of Naples with a significant annual stipend. To be used to increase the prosperity, industry, and infrastructure of the Neapolitan realm.

3. A deputation of Imperial military advisors will be dispatched to Naples to disseminate latest military tactics and training methods for the Neapolitan Armed Forces.

4. Recognizing Naples' esteemed maritime history, a deputation of Neapolitan admirals will be dispatched to Habsburg naval bases at Trieste, Pola, and Fiume to share their expertise regarding shipbuilding, naval tactics, and navigation.

5. The two powers reaffirm the importance of a secure Adriatic and will engage in periodic joint naval exercises to ensure the tranquility of said sea.

6. In their historic roles as Holy Roman Emperor and King of Naples and Sicily (historically a Papal fief), Francis II and Ferdinand agree to respect and defend the Holy See from any future depredations and revolutionary violence.

X Kaiser Franz II