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June 20, 2024, 01:35:50 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

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 1 
 on: Today at 01:35:31 PM 
Started by iceman - Last post by Tekken_Guy
I think Trump narrowly holds it, but it finally flips in 2028 if he wins. Hamilton IN and Douglas CO, its demographic peers.

 2 
 on: Today at 01:34:53 PM 
Started by Matty - Last post by TodayJunior
Press X to doubt. Somebody is lying….why? Bc when Trump is actually on the ballot, every state with a senate race has voted the EXACT same way as President, with the lone exception being Maine 2020, which goes with their independent-minded streak here and there.

I just don’t see how we can reconcile the presidential numbers with the senate numbers in EVERY single swing state. Are there THAT many people who are going to split ticket this year? I just don’t buy it when we have strong history of what I mentioned in the first paragraph.

“Ya know, I think Trump would be good for the country bc I was better off and I support his agenda, but you know what, I really REALLY LIKE *insert Dem candidate* who’s gonna oppose everything trumps trying to do.”

Make it make sense for me.

Yeah, I imagine there will be a few ticket splitters in swing states as there always is, but I also don't imagine many Dem-leaning voters willing to vote for their Dem senate candidate but then Trump for president, given Trump's views are in diametric opposition to most of the swing state Dem candidates. Joe Biden is not *that* disliked among Dem-leaning voters for that to happen. You'd have to also be totally against his policies... which are the same as Dem senate candidates.

Exactly. I’m now only bearish on Georgia and North Carolina now bc the conviction didn’t really materialize enough in my view and they both don’t have senate races


I think the governor's race will help Biden out in NC, given how toxic Robinson has the potential to be, though I think Trump narrowly holds it in the end. I think it finally flips in 2028 if Trump wins in 2024.

Possible but NC likes to vote differently between state and federal races. I’d be more confident in NC if there was a strong senate race to help out

 3 
 on: Today at 01:33:31 PM 
Started by Matty - Last post by Tekken_Guy
Press X to doubt. Somebody is lying….why? Bc when Trump is actually on the ballot, every state with a senate race has voted the EXACT same way as President, with the lone exception being Maine 2020, which goes with their independent-minded streak here and there.

I just don’t see how we can reconcile the presidential numbers with the senate numbers in EVERY single swing state. Are there THAT many people who are going to split ticket this year? I just don’t buy it when we have strong history of what I mentioned in the first paragraph.

“Ya know, I think Trump would be good for the country bc I was better off and I support his agenda, but you know what, I really REALLY LIKE *insert Dem candidate* who’s gonna oppose everything trumps trying to do.”

Make it make sense for me.

Yeah, I imagine there will be a few ticket splitters in swing states as there always is, but I also don't imagine many Dem-leaning voters willing to vote for their Dem senate candidate but then Trump for president, given Trump's views are in diametric opposition to most of the swing state Dem candidates. Joe Biden is not *that* disliked among Dem-leaning voters for that to happen. You'd have to also be totally against his policies... which are the same as Dem senate candidates.

Exactly. I’m now only bearish on Georgia and North Carolina now bc the conviction didn’t really materialize enough in my view and they both don’t have senate races


I think the governor's race will help Biden out in NC, given how toxic Robinson has the potential to be, though I think Trump narrowly holds it in the end. I think it finally flips in 2028 if Trump wins in 2024.

 4 
 on: Today at 01:33:31 PM 
Started by SnowLabrador - Last post by Antonio the Sixth
And I didn’t complain when Sinema was extremely rude to those folks.  Heckling politicians in an attempt to provoke them into losing their temper and doing something dumb like Bob Etheridge did is nothing new.  Politicians have every right to ignore such people though.  It is an inherently antagonistic dynamic.

Yes, being a politicians means having to accept some degree of antagonism and making some effort to handle it with grace. Obviously that doesn't extend to indulging obvious bad-faith provocateurs, but I still haven't seen any evidence that that was what's going on here. It was an activist highlighting an concrete issue that matters greatly to them and on which Fetterman has a say. This is the kind of antagonism our elected representatives ought to be subjected to, because it's part of how they're held accountable to their constituents.


Quote
Obviously you don’t have to name any non-Israel issues, but you basically said he was almost as bad as Sinema

...I did not. I explicitly did not. Did you actually read what I said??? I know you're smart, so I refuse to believe this is actually how you interpreted my post, unless you were in a real hurry or had a bizarrely visceral reaction to it. Go read the post again and then we'll continue.

 5 
 on: Today at 01:32:44 PM 
Started by Nyvin - Last post by Big Abraham
Imagine believing that things are sooooooo different now than they were only 300-400 years ago.

The difference is the peasants back then didn't know any better. What's your excuse?

didn't know what any better?

Take your pick really. It's not like the lot of them were literate.

 6 
 on: Today at 01:31:43 PM 
Started by SnowLabrador - Last post by I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
Outside of far leftists being pissed at Fetterman about his stance on Israel, how has Fetterman been a disappointment for Democrats?

There is that whole lab meat thing, where he sided with Meatball Ron for no real reason.
That was dumb but also inconsequential, especially as he has no control over Florida state policy.

In order for Fetterman to be worse than Sinema, he would have to be voting significantly to the right of Generic D, which is not the case. If Fetterman ends up just being Generic D in voting and a little Sistah Souljah moment prone in rhetoric, that's nowhere near as bad as Sinema.

 7 
 on: Today at 01:31:04 PM 
Started by Matty - Last post by TodayJunior
Press X to doubt. Somebody is lying….why? Bc when Trump is actually on the ballot, every state with a senate race has voted the EXACT same way as President, with the lone exception being Maine 2020, which goes with their independent-minded streak here and there.

I just don’t see how we can reconcile the presidential numbers with the senate numbers in EVERY single swing state. Are there THAT many people who are going to split ticket this year? I just don’t buy it when we have strong history of what I mentioned in the first paragraph.

“Ya know, I think Trump would be good for the country bc I was better off and I support his agenda, but you know what, I really REALLY LIKE *insert Dem candidate* who’s gonna oppose everything trumps trying to do.”

Make it make sense for me.

Yeah, I imagine there will be a few ticket splitters in swing states as there always is, but I also don't imagine many Dem-leaning voters willing to vote for their Dem senate candidate but then Trump for president, given Trump's views are in diametric opposition to most of the swing state Dem candidates. Joe Biden is not *that* disliked among Dem-leaning voters for that to happen. You'd have to also be totally against his policies... which are the same as Dem senate candidates.

Exactly. I’m now only bearish on Georgia and North Carolina now bc the conviction didn’t really materialize enough in my view and they both don’t have senate races to help Joe down ballot.

So 287-251 is my map. 2020 minus Georgia. 2004 on reverse is the most likely outcome IMHO

 8 
 on: Today at 01:30:46 PM 
Started by wnwnwn - Last post by wnwnwn
I'm talking about the republican US House representative from NY-21

 9 
 on: Today at 01:30:13 PM 
Started by President Johnson - Last post by President Johnson
RIP to a legend.


 10 
 on: Today at 01:30:11 PM 
Started by John Dule - Last post by Yelnoc

Oh man, key wiki, I haven't thought about that website in a long time.

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