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The gay plus lesbean community gets the entire rainbow for a full month evrey year. I recall what use to be said about Katy Parry back in the day.



Do you?

I'm definitely not knowledgeable enough about previous MRPs to understand or offer an answer to this, but I wonder if the lack of a Leave/Remain dynamic (and the demographic factors aligned with it) compared to 2017, and 2019 in particular, makes these things quite a bit more unwieldy. Is it at all telling that the rise of MRPs benefitted from being at a time when we had another major and relevant electoral data point?

I think there may be something to this. An issue election - and the previous two both were - will always force binaries onto the electorate on an extent, and that ought to make outcomes easier to model as you have a pretty good reference point to start from. Take that away and things are much more chaotic.

MRPs in general weren't really that great in 2017 and 2019 though, other than the 2017 YouGov one which both got close on the headline figures and was fairly good on the pattern of the swings (including the famous Canterbury prediction). YouGov's 2019 MRP was also quite good on the patterns (though as in 2017 some local effects were missed and some were overcooked, e.g. East Devon) but it wasn't that close to the overall result.

On the flip side, I think we actually underestimate the purity of a lot neurotypicals around this age - neurotypicals, especially young men, seem far more willing to try and puff themselves up to seem like the cool guy and blatantly lie about things like their sex life or drug experience to seem cooler. In high school I felt really bad because a lot of my neurotypical male acquaintances were talking about all these wild sexual endeavors while I was still this pure virgin, and it took me a while to realize half of them were outright lying about having sex at all and most of the other half were having crappy sex - very few high schoolers have fulfilling romantic lives. In actuality me and my neurotypical peers were at a pretty simillar level in this way, but the difference in presentation made it seem like I was very behind.

What about after high school?

The LGBT community is going to end up adding so many ridiculous subcultures to its acronym that its flags will eventually resemble medieval European heraldry.

Survation has the Tories on 0(!) seats in Wales. Is this a live possibility or another example of MRP oddities?

Realistic. I think they will hold Montgomeryshire but a wipeout is very plausible and Montgomeryshire is the only seat they are at decent odds to hold on current polling. Maybe Brecon at a push but Labour seems to have given the LDs a free run there so the LDs should win it with tactical votes.

Even with Montgomeryshire's own LD history?  Or did Lembit Opik stink up the joint *that* much?

Don't forget Montgomeryshire is the seat where the incumbent Tory candidate, Sunak's PPS in the last parliament, placed a bet on the election date being in July and is now under investigation by the gambling commission. Sleaze can bring down any candidate anywhere.

Also, it's Montgomeryshire & Glyndŵr. The component rather absurdly called "Glyndŵr" is a substantial part of the constituency, and is a reasonably Labour area, unlike Montgomeryshire.

(That said, I'm not taking any of the details from the Survation MRP seriously.)

How did it vote in 2022 and 2020 (retroactively fitting it's boundaries to before the redistricting).

Jacobs won it by 61%-38% in 2022.

It's fair to assume Democrats do pretty well in 2026 and 2028 and a newly elected Democrat would come in with robust majorities in 2029. Under ideal circumstances the Democrats could even flip back the senate in the midterms and block any Trump appointee from moving forward for the second half of his administration.

Can we assume any of that? Throughout his whole term in office, we all thought Democrats would have a landslide midterm and then win big in 2020. And while yes, the 2018 was a decent night for Democrats, taking back the House, we actually lost seats in the Senate, and 2020 worked out OK in that Democrats took back the presidency and got a trifecta in Congress, it was still nowhere near the "surely a Trump presidency will lead to Democratic landslides!" expectations most of us had had for years.

I could easily see a world where Trump wins and Democrats just do kinda OK in 2026 and 2028, and even that would require Trump not to pass the voter restriction laws he is promising to pass.

I really can't comprehend how so many liberals are able to buy into this BS anymore. There is no guarantee that Democrats flip the Senate in 2026. I do think they'll do extremely well in the midterms, but it's not inconceivable that Republicans gain four seats this year, which they won't make up for even on a good night in 2026.

And all of this risk for what? I can at least see why people were uncomfortable with dropping Biden in favor of a better candidate. I disagreed but I can see why people would worry about that backfiring, but here we're risking everything purely because Sotomayor thinks it'd be fun to serve a few more years on the Supreme Court. It's pathetic and nauseating.

How did it vote in 2022 and 2020 (retroactively fitting it's boundaries to before the redistricting).

[Canada]

Canada*
British Columbia
Metro Vancouver*

United States
Alaska*
Anchorage*
Denali*
Fairbanks North Star*
Haines*
Hoonah-Angoon*
Juneau*
Ketchikan Gateway*
Matanuska-Susitna*
Petersburg*
Prince of Wales-Hyder*
Wrangell*
Yakutat*
Yukon-Koyukuk*

Arkansas
Clark
Clay
Craighead
Garland*
Hempstead
Hot Spring
Howard*
Jackson
Lawrence
Little River*
Lonoke
Miller
Montgomery*
Nevada
Pike*
Pulaski
Randolph
Saline
Sevier*
White

Illinois
Alexander
Champaign
Clay
Coles
Cook
Cumberland
Douglas
DuPage
Effingham
Fayette
Ford
Franklin
Iroquois
Jefferson
Johnson
Kankakee
Marion
Pulaski
Shelby
Union
Williamson

Indiana
Elkhart
Jasper
Lake
LaPorte
Newton
Porter
St. Joseph

Louisiana
Caddo

Missouri
Butler
Mississippi
New Madrid
Scott
Stoddard

Texas
Anderson
Atascosa
Bandera
Bastrop*
Bowie
Brazoria
Brazos*
Burleson*
Caldwell*
Calhoun
Cameron
Cass
Chambers
Cherokee*
Comal
Freestone
Frio
Galveston
Hardin
Harrison
Hays
Hidalgo
Jackson
Jasper
Jefferson
Kendall
Kenedy
Kerr
Kleberg
Lee
Leon
Live Oak
Madison*
Marion
Matagorda
Medina
Nueces
Panola
Refugio
Robertson
Rusk*
Sabine
San Augustine
San Patricio
Shelby
Willacy

*= First time
[/quote]

No, just no. If you have to make an American comparison to Grimsby, then it would be some working class coastal town in like Maine or Washington, which coincidentally is the sort of place Biden generally bounced back a bit in after the 2016 apocalypse.

If it is analogous to Maine, I would say more so Maine's 2nd Congressional district rather than the 1st (which is more progressive). But Trump got a higher vote share in 2020 than 2016 there, so that doesn't really fit your argument at all. ME-02 is precisely a place where Democrats traditionally won and where Trump improved with WWC voters.

Washington (assuming you mean Washington State) is not really a WWC area, it is socially progressive Pacific coast, and Clinton did fine there in 2016.

It is true that in both Washington and Maine there were relatively high 3rd party vote shares in 2016, but those 3rd party voters are more analagous to UK Green and UK Lib Dem voters than to the sorts of disaffected voters who would be pro-Brexit or pro-Reform in the UK or pro-Trump in the USA.

There's already a thread for this kind of irrelevant speculation, and it isn't here.