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The PA don't seem to have released their estimated declaration times yet. They appear to have released them for the local elections (2nd of May) on the 20th of April, so we should be getting them soon.

AP results.  The assembly vote was held at the same time as LS.

TDP-JSP-BJP alliance consolidated the Kamma (TDP) and Kapu (JSP) and won enough of the usually lean YSRCP Reddy, Dalit, and Muslim vote to sweep to victory.  NDA also won the battle of the OBC which was critical to their landslide victory over the ruling YSRCP.   The BJP's low base in AP (which is exaggerated due to it contesting way more LS seats than its power would suggest) made it easier for TDP to be the face of the NDA and rope in the necessary Muslim votes.

There was not much vote splitting, unlike in Odisha although for assembly elections there seems to be some INC+ anti-YSRCP tactical voting in favor of TDP+.

Out of power, in theory, the path forward for YSRCP should be to join the INDIA alliance.  They are holding off on that and in theory still willing to work with the NDA on a tactical basis due to the fact that TDP might always pull the plug on the TDP-BJP alliance like back in 2018.  There is still a lot of bad blood between YRSCP and INC over the YSRCP split from INC in 2011.  The fact that the YSRCP-BJP relationship has not crashed also will give TDP pause on making its alliance with BJP anything beyond tactical.

This is the last election for CBN so he will be working on a transition plan to hand TDP to his son Nara Lokesh for 2029.  YSRCP chief Y. S. Jagan Mohan Reddy is only in his early 50s and has a couple of more decades to go in his career.  He is likely to become CM again in the future as long as he plays his cards right.  There will be plenty of churn between now and 2019 in AP politics.

CSDS post-election survey






2024 LS
TDP+                     21                  54.12%
YSRCP                     4                   39.96%
INC+                       0                    3.13%

2024 assembly
TDP+                    164                 55.91%
YSRCP                    11                 39.81%
INC+                       0                   1.91%


2019 LS
YSRCP                    22                 49.89%
TDP                         3                  40.19%
JSP+                       0                    6.35%
INC                         0                    1.31%
BJP                          0                   0.98%

2019 assembly
YSRCP                  151                 50.59%
TDP                       23                 39.68%
JSP+                       1                   6.32%
INC                         0                   1.19%
BJP                          0                   0.85%

So Quatennens is out (the problematic lfi candidate who plead guilty to slapping his wife).

https://m.youtube.com/watch?t=1264&v=nycfehpVLu8&feature=youtu.be

A good decision for the unity of the Left but his speech was sad 😭. I understand that DV is a big no-no but he seems repentant and his wife apparently forgave him + as he said, rehabilitation is a big part of left wing ideology. Oh well.

Wonder if Mélenchon gave him up as a tribute in exchange for getting away with his purge of Corbières, Garrido etc. If so he shouldn't be allowed to get away with it. FI dissidents need to be fully supported.

As for Quattenens, rehabilitation is fine but I don't think it has to be in the form of a political career. Being a prominent face for an overtly feminist political movement is just not very credible at this point.

I get it and yes rehabilitating someone is different from giving him a political career. But assuming that there's nothing he can do to be fully considered an "acceptable" again is proof that even the left is fine with a permanent punitive justice system.

I always liked the original rainbow Pride Parade version the best.  The rest are just horrible.... 

Florida Republicans: We might be drowning but at least we owned the libs.

In fairness, I guess it is their children and grandchildren who will be drowning and we know that republicans don't care about the next generations.

Mr 4% should still be forever held in contempt for introducing Manuel Valls into the world.

I feel like I just had a stroke. Horrible flags.

This case is a complete slam dunk. It is all on tape! If ever there was a case that should just be decided on the spot by a judge, this is it. It is an absolute disgrace that this hasn't been decided already a long time ago and a travesty that nothing will happen before the election - not that I think the Trump cultists will care one bit.

So Quatennens is out (the problematic lfi candidate who plead guilty to slapping his wife).

https://m.youtube.com/watch?t=1264&v=nycfehpVLu8&feature=youtu.be

A good decision for the unity of the Left but his speech was sad 😭. I understand that DV is a big no-no but he seems repentant and his wife apparently forgave him + as he said, rehabilitation is a big part of left wing ideology. Oh well.

Wonder if Mélenchon gave him up as a tribute in exchange for getting away with his purge of Corbières, Garrido etc. If so he shouldn't be allowed to get away with it. FI dissidents need to be fully supported.

As for Quattenens, rehabilitation is fine but I don't think it has to be in the form of a political career. Being a prominent face for an overtly feminist political movement is just not very credible at this point.

The fact that the polling was so off on hispanics leads me to believe they said they were going to vote for Republicans but when it came time to actually vote they didn't care enough to actually go to the voting booth. I know AZ has a mail option but I think it was Adam Griffin(D-GA poster) who argued that Latinos tend to vote at the last minute on election day overwhelmingly.