Pennsylvania 2010 - The Official Thread

[Torie]

Doesn't it depend in the end on how fast on their feet, and how are articulate they seem to be, and their  mastery of the issues, and ability to seem cognizant that their are competing considerations to wrestle with, and maybe it is time to think a bit out of the box?

Sure, it does and Toomey is strong in all of those areas. And that's ignored. All the time.

it still has  strong unions, a lot of social conservatives, with seculars kind of thin on the ground, and where the tendency is to think pork is one's favorite meat?

Hey, that's the case here, too. We're a real mixed bag, my friend.

By the way, I don't like how you say that seculars are "thin on the ground," as if their scarcity means that other groups (like social conservatives) make up all of the "dumb voters."

Scarce means that they are scarce relatively speaking (seculars). It does not mean folks of faith are dumb - which I don't believe - at all. I don't understand how you could draw that logical connection from the text of my post, Phil.

[Keystone Phil]

http://community.post-gazette.com/blogs/earlyreturns/archive/2009/04/30/roddey-endorses-toomey.aspx

Pittsburgh's county chair endorses Toomey, that's a shot across Gerlach's bow

I mentioned this earlier, for the record. 

[Keystone Phil]

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/05/republicans-running-anti--and-pro-specter-robocalls-in-pa.php

LOL

Brilliant. Just brilliant.

[Keystone Phil]

Facebook Fan page update...

Arlen Specter - 4,310

Pat Toomey - 4,810

Joe Sestak - 993

[Badger]

I'm interested in Gerlach for how his positions will "develop" if he does run in opposition to Toomey.  Will he advertise himself as the true conservative, <fruitless approach against Toomey>or the electable anti-Wall Street conservative <Ding ding ding ding! Correct answer!> or something else?  <<Like a Specterish moderate? Other viable options here are quite limited>

[Badger]

http://community.post-gazette.com/blogs/earlyreturns/archive/2009/04/30/roddey-endorses-toomey.aspx

Pittsburgh's county chair endorses Toomey, that's a shot across Gerlach's bow

Wow! That's a BIG warning shot. Jim Roddey is the godfather of the GOP moderate/Wall Street wing in the greater Pittsburgh area. His endorsement here is huge.

I guess its not impossible for Gerlach to still win a primary banking on large margins in the SE, but to even be competitive with Toomey in the SW (remember how well he ran against Specter there in 04) would absolutely require the support of folks like Jim Roddey.

Again, BIG score for Toomey IMHO.

[Keystone Phil]

Wow! That's a BIG warning shot. Jim Roddey is the godfather of the GOP moderate/Wall Street wing in the greater Pittsburgh area. His endorsement here is huge.

I guess its not impossible for Gerlach to still win a primary banking on large margins in the SE, but to even be competitive with Toomey in the SW (remember how well he ran against Specter there in 04) would absolutely require the support of folks like Jim Roddey.

Again, BIG score for Toomey IMHO.

The SE won't be enough. That's not where these races are won (in GOP primaries). Plus, Toomey has been big out west (even though he's from the east) since 2004. That's why Roddey's endorsement isn't really that surprising. His people want it. It's just a sign that the establishment can't really block Toomey as much as they might want.

By the way, badger, I didn't know you were a fellow Pennsylvanian. Welcome! 

[pbrower2a]

why does pennsylvania always get all the attention all the time. ugh.

1. Pennsylvania is the absolute must-win state for the Democrats. Without it in 2008, Obama had no chance to win; once he solidified a lead in Pennsylvania he had many ways in which to win.

2. By putting almost all efforts in a quixotic effort to win Pennsylvania late in the 2008 campaign, John McCain showed how important Pennsylvania is.

3. Among the largest states it is closer to a microcosm of America than any other large state except perhaps Ohio. 

4. As goes Pennsylvania, so goes Michigan. As late is 2008, PA (21)+ MI (17) > TX (34)

5. Pennsylvania is a real trend-setter in American politics.  Santorum in in 1994 with the GOP ascendency; Santorum out in 2006 with the GOP descendency.

6. Greater Philadelphia is more capricious in its voting patterns than greater Chicago, Houston, Dallas, Phoenix, Detroit, or San Francisco.

[Keystone Phil]

He was doing his usual "I'm skeptical of Specter" routine and basically said he's not getting his hopes up about Arlen being what Dems want him to be. He said a decision has to come soon for fundraising purposes.

As of now, he's running.    Let's see if that stays the same.

[Lunar]

Phil, would you prefer Sestak over Specter?  I assume you prefer someone that has a chance of believing in something?



And Sestak *needs* to be there in order to create a fire under Arlen's ass to vote liberally..on, say, Souter's replacement.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil, would you prefer Sestak over Specter?  I assume you prefer someone that has a chance of believing in something?

As my Senator? I know Sestak is to Specter's left but Sestak is a class act (as far as I know/can tell). He's genuine. I've seen it (albeit briefly) firsthand.

[Lunar]

That's what I thought.  Unless you somehow preferred having a ticking time bomb among the Democratic ranks or you preferred someone that will be around shorter to give the GOP a chance at the seat... Sestak seems infinitely better.

I've consistently said that Specter can't really "prove himself" immediately after switching parties, as that will only needlessly heighten the view that he's an a political opportunist.  I have a prediction:  His vote on the cloture for Dawn Johnsen will be the first indicator whether he's on board or not.  He says he's opposed to her [for her pro-choice views?  doesn't he share them?], but hasn't articulated how he'd vote on a cloture motion for her.  If he votes one way on her vote but another on the filibuster, it'll mean that he's 100% on board with Obama... for a year or two.


Sestak is a cat ready to pounce if Specter is going to do the Democratic equivalent of voting for the stimulus while running in the GOP primary.

[Speed of Sound]

He was doing his usual "I'm skeptical of Specter" routine and basically said he's not getting his hopes up about Arlen being what Dems want him to be. He said a decision has to come soon for fundraising purposes.

As of now, he's running.    Let's see if that stays the same.

indeed. If for no other reason, the higher ups must be reminded that this kind of political shuffling is not gonna happen this easily. We win seats on votes, not quid pro quo's. Be it Toomey, Sestak (preferably ) or anyone else, given the current political fatcatting, I cannot and will not support Specter.

[Eraserhead]

He was doing his usual "I'm skeptical of Specter" routine and basically said he's not getting his hopes up about Arlen being what Dems want him to be. He said a decision has to come soon for fundraising purposes.

As of now, he's running.    Let's see if that stays the same.

Yeah, I saw this too and I'd have to agree that he's still planning on running. He'll probably get strong-armed out of it though. It's a shame, I'd easily support him over Specter.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Sestak is a dream candidate for us Democrats.  God I hope he runs...

[Rob]

I've always liked Sestak. He's got great progressive credentials, and he's the kind of Democrat who would play very well among certain swing groups, due solely to his demeanor and his personal story.

It would really underline the change in this country if Sestak beat Specter in the primary and then rolled over Toomey in the general.

[Keystone Phil]

Sestak is a dream candidate for us Democrats.  God I hope he runs...

Uh...you need to realize that he'd run to Specter's left and then he'd become the "moderate slayer." That would be a serious problem.

then rolled over Toomey in the general.

Which wouldn't happen especially after beating Specter in the primary.

[Lunar]

Moderate slaying is a problem now, is it?  Interesting

He was doing his usual "I'm skeptical of Specter" routine and basically said he's not getting his hopes up about Arlen being what Dems want him to be. He said a decision has to come soon for fundraising purposes.

As of now, he's running.    Let's see if that stays the same.

Yeah, I saw this too and I'd have to agree that he's still planning on running. He'll probably get strong-armed out of it though. It's a shame, I'd easily support him over Specter.

Strong-armed in the fact that the entire Democratic establishment has promised Specter their endorsements and possible  campaigning.

BUT, if Specter doesn't pull through and out-moderates himself, just like he did with the stimulus, despite clear orders from Obama/Reid etc., expect them to stay neutral in a Sestak-Specter primary...  Specter has shot himself in the foot before measuring public attitudes, he COULD do it again, but it's unlikely.

[Keystone Phil]

Moderate slaying is a problem now, is it?  Interesting

Dude, when did I ever say that it wasn't a problem if Toomey did it? I just don't think it's the be all and end all and I'm not arguing that it is in this situation.

[Lunar]

I just don't remember you ever saying it, not that you didn't say it wouldn't be it

[Keystone Phil]

I just don't remember you ever saying it, not that you didn't say it wouldn't be it

I've constantly admitted that Toomey would struggle in a General and this would obviously be a reason why. Now he'll likely avoid getting his hands dirty (assuming Gerlach stays away).

[Lunar]

I've hinted towards this, but yeah, the PA Republican primary is important because Toomey doesn't have to spend money in order to make himself as conservative as possible. 

But to be honest, unlike 98% of candidates, I don't know if he'll attempt to make himself at least a little more centrist on the issues in a relatively uncontested primary, should it exist.

[Lunar]

Here's Sestak on Hardball... he's a bit  of a fumbler when it comes to speaking, I'm impressed that he's one of the best fundraisers in the House though, especially with a non-political background

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r2g196AtfO4&eurl




I'd support Sestak over Specter.  If the Democrats reject Arlen it's not because he's too moderate or the Democrats are going for an ideological purge, it'll be because he promised to deliver some crucial support that he never delivered... and his vote is 150% unreliable in 2011.

[Keystone Phil]

I'd support Sestak over Hardball. 

O RLY?

[Lunar]

ysrly