Pennsylvania 2010 - The Official Thread

[Keystone Phil]

We can get this started now that we have our first official challenger to declare - Joe Torsella

Many will remember Torsella from the bitter 2004 Democratic primary in PA 13. Torsella was favored to win but Schwartz won in a close upset. Torsella also is infamously known for the 4th of July celebration at the National Constitution Center where part of the stage collapsed, almost crushing then Justice Sandra Day O'Connor. Torsella suffered injuries as a result of this accident. 

Torsella could be a force but I think he's angling for support in another PA 13 race. He might be wishing for a cleared primary field (which would mean a guarantee from State Representative Josh Shapiro that he will not enter the race for the House seat and actually committ to a Senate run or staying in the State House).

I'd love to see another Torsella vs. Schwartz race. It would be very interesting. Schwartz would have the traditional liberal group backing but Torsella would be a better match for the more populist Dems and the machine. Then again, two SE candidates could force Wagner into the race even though he's admitting that he's leaning towards a run for Governor.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Torsella also is infamously known for the 4th of July celebration at the National Constitution Center where part of the stage collapsed, almost crushing then Justice Sandra Day O'Connor. Torsella suffered injuries as a result of this accident. 

lol

[Keystone Phil]

By the way, as I stated before, if 2010 looks like another year in the wilderness for the GOP, I'll probably vote for Torsella if he's the nominee. If it's looking like a good year for us, I'm either writing someone in or if it's Specter vs. Schwartz...ugh...don't make me say it...

[Keystone Phil]

With conservatives groups now making it quite clear that they're looking for someone to challenge Specter and since Toomey apparently said he's not interested, don't be shocked to hear our favorite former Senator's name mentioned. 

I already did my part, sending his people an e-mail, urging him to run. 

[TeePee4Prez]

With conservatives groups now making it quite clear that they're looking for someone to challenge Specter and since Toomey apparently said he's not interested, don't be shocked to hear our favorite former Senator's name mentioned. 

I already did my part, sending his people an e-mail, urging him to run. 

You think Santorum will take on Specter in a primary?  I'd love to see that even more than Toomey.  It would be fair to say Schwartz or hell Bob Brady would demolish him.  Toomey at least hasn't had anything controversial on his plate.

[Smash255]

Good lets see Santorum get smacked around by a liberal this time.

[TeePee4Prez]

Good lets see Santorum get smacked around by a liberal this time.

Interestingly, Torsella is originally from upstate PA (Berwick, I think) and me thinks he would do better amongst people in Northeastern PA.  Torsella is more of a centrist albeit not as much as Casey.  If I were to guess, I'd say he'd be about a Clare McCaskill politically.  He would absolutely demolish Santorum or Toomey and would give Specter a good run.   

[Keystone Phil]

I received word back about Santorum running. He doesn't "intend" to run for the seat in 2010 but it was then mentioned that he has "family health issues and business obligations" so he won't be a candidate in 2010 (though he "hasn't shut the door" on a return to public office).

With conservatives groups now making it quite clear that they're looking for someone to challenge Specter and since Toomey apparently said he's not interested, don't be shocked to hear our favorite former Senator's name mentioned. 

I already did my part, sending his people an e-mail, urging him to run. 

You think Santorum will take on Specter in a primary?  I'd love to see that even more than Toomey.  It would be fair to say Schwartz or hell Bob Brady would demolish him.  Toomey at least hasn't had anything controversial on his plate.

You are such a hack that's unbelievable.

Bob Brady? Haha, yeah, ok. Again, saying for certain that he'd lose this far out is assinine. Saying he'd be demolished by Schwartz and Brady...incredible hubris. Bob Brady couldn't even win the Democratic nomination for Mayor in a city that he practically runs (he came in a distant third or fourth, by the way) when he was essentially crowned the Mayor and you expect him to run a statewide campaign? His campaign would be a laughing stock. Bob Brady isn't cut out for much dealing with substance. He has a safe House seat and won't get anything more.

[Keystone Phil]

43% want him gone. 40% want him to stay.

56% approve of the job he's doing. His rating among Republicans is 55%.

In other news, Casey's approval rating is 54%.

http://triangle.bizjournals.com/triangle/othercities/pittsburgh/stories/2009/02/09/daily31.html

[Keystone Phil]

Santorum probably won't run.  He's been getting a lot of heat lately for an alleged affair with an illegal immigrant.  If he gets through this unscathed he might run for his old seat in 2012.  We'll see what happens.

I already said that he's basically ruled it out.

As for what you're talking about, that obviously isn't true. Make it something a little more believable (something that can't be disproven after a Google search) if you want to troll. 

[Keystone Phil]

Santorum probably won't run.  He's been getting a lot of heat lately for an alleged affair with an illegal immigrant.  If he gets through this unscathed he might run for his old seat in 2012.  We'll see what happens.

I already said that he's basically ruled it out.

As for what you're talking about, that obviously isn't true. Make it something a little more believable (something that can't be disproven after a Google search) if you want to troll. 

I'm only trolling if the guy who said that a senator would be outed was trolling.  That senator was Larry Craig, not that he needed outing because he screwed up.  I'd keep an eye on Santorum if I were you, he likes the men (especially non-English speaking men he can take advantage of), and it's not exactly a secret in certain parts of Pennsylvania.

I love you, Vander.

[Dan the Roman]

Santorum probably won't run.  He's been getting a lot of heat lately for an alleged affair with an illegal immigrant.  If he gets through this unscathed he might run for his old seat in 2012.  We'll see what happens.

I already said that he's basically ruled it out.

As for what you're talking about, that obviously isn't true. Make it something a little more believable (something that can't be disproven after a Google search) if you want to troll. 

I'm only trolling if the guy who said that a senator would be outed was trolling.  That senator was Larry Craig, not that he needed outing because he screwed up.  I'd keep an eye on Santorum if I were you, he likes the men (especially non-English speaking men he can take advantage of), and it's not exactly a secret in certain parts of Pennsylvania.

This is not that out there. According to Internet rumor, 85% of American politicians share his like of men. The remaining 15% are lesbians.

[Keystone Phil]

Why a superstar might not be needed to beat Specter - http://www.nationaljournal.com/hotline/hl_20090211_9594.php

It just goes over what we typically talk about here but it's the truth. A second or third tier candidate could beat the guy. This Glen Meakem guy (a Pittsburgh area millionaire and radio host) might be our shot. He said he is not a candidate right now but he's absolutely focused on seeing Specter get a primary challenge - http://community.post-gazette.com/blogs/earlyreturns/archive/2009/02/10/meakem-for-senate.aspx


I will almost definitely prefer Meakem to Luksik so I hope he does it.

[Keystone Phil]

There are apparently some questions (probably because he isn't an elected official with an established record) as to where Meakem stands on abortion and some other social issues. I saw he received mixed comments on a Pennsylvania conservative blog that I visit so that can be a major problem for him. One person said he's a fairly standard conservative who simply doesn't engage in the vicious rhetoric (Pro Life but doesn't hate those that are Pro Choice, against gay marriage without hating gays, etc.) which accurately describes my feelings. We'll see how accurate that is.

I worry a bit though since he was a Bill Scranton fan in 2006. I hope he doesn't disappoint.

[TeePee4Prez]

Why a superstar might not be needed to beat Specter - http://www.nationaljournal.com/hotline/hl_20090211_9594.php

It just goes over what we typically talk about here but it's the truth. A second or third tier candidate could beat the guy. This Glen Meakem guy (a Pittsburgh area millionaire and radio host) might be our shot. He said he is not a candidate right now but he's absolutely focused on seeing Specter get a primary challenge - http://community.post-gazette.com/blogs/earlyreturns/archive/2009/02/10/meakem-for-senate.aspx


I will almost definitely prefer Meakem to Luksik so I hope he does it.

Good article.  Now this guy has to win a General Election. 

Just curious Phil, and I'm not trying to be a hack or put you down, but do you have any pragmatism in you our you just like conservatives?  I mean, am I gonna go for the most liberal Dem in a primary?  No.  In fact I'd rather see a Torsella over Schwartz as the nominee due to his electability plus the fact he isn't too conservative.  A Jack Wagner on the other hand would easily have my vote against a Santorum/Toomey, but a moderate to liberal Republican would get consideration in that case.  As for Specter, do you think the risk of losing a GOP seat is worth it to have a more conservative primary challenger?  On our side, sometimes knocking off a conservative Dem is worth it.  Look at Al Wynn in MD-4 against Donna Edwards.  That was clearly worth it due to the strength of the Dems in that district.  I'm just saying if I were in Louisiana, you bet your ass I'd be a HUGE Mary Landrieu supporter despite the fact I disagree with her on many issues because it's the best we're gonna get there.  I'm just curious as to why you seem so confident a pure conservative can carry PA.     

[Keystone Phil]

Good article.  Now this guy has to win a General Election. 

Just curious Phil, and I'm not trying to be a hack or put you down, but do you have any pragmatism in you our you just like conservatives?

Yeah, you're not trying to be a hack... 

Whose campaign did we argue over night and day about four years back? Note that I supported her in the primary. Who did I vote for for Mayor in 2007? Knock off the hack routine.

 

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What am I getting from Specter now? Wouldn't it be hilarious if I decided to support a man that I can't stand for the sake of "pragmatism" only to see him go down in the General? I'm sorry but why aren't we debating that possibility, too?

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I'm confident that they can win, not that they will win. You, on the other hand, sit there nearly two years before a midterm election and proclaim that a pure liberal would definitely win the seat. I don't want to hear your reasons for why it could happen. We've been through it enough times. The point remains that I am reasonable and say that something could happen (especially given the right conditions). You say that your side would win and you're absolutely certain.

Don't bother responding if that's not going to change because at this point, it's like we're both talking to a brick wall.

[Keystone Phil]

I'd love for this to be true - Gerlach for Senate? - http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2009/02/arlen_specter_losing_support_o.html


This is a candidate people like Don can't call an extreme conservative.

Jim Roddy, chairman of the Allegheny County Republican Committee, suggested two names: Pat Toomey and U.S. Rep. Jim Gerlach, R-Chester Springs.

Toomey, a conservative former Congressman from the Lehigh Valley, narrowly lost to Specter in the 2004 primary. But Toomey has said he is not running for the Senate.

Representatives for Gerlach said they have no indication that he is considering anything other than a potential run for governor.


No indication better equal "Yeah, we're thinking about it."

[Keystone Phil]

I like Gerlach, and he's got geography on his side.  If you ask me, and you should probably ask Phil instead, I'd say you have to be from SEPA these days to survive.  At least as a Republican.  We've lost so much ground there that we need every advantage we can get.

Gerlach would be absolutely perfect for a primary (ok, maybe not "absolutely perfect" for a primary) and for a General.

In the primary, he unites the anti Specter voters. They're looking for basically anyone right now. He also cuts into Specter's SE PA base. If Gerlach gets in this and runs a competent campaign, he wins. There's very little chance for a Specter victory. Gerlach can't be tagged as far right and has the SE PA argument on his side for the General.

In the General, well, like I said the guy isn't a wingnut and can't be labeled as one. He is popular with just enough people in his swing district, meaning no chance of a blow out down here. He'd definitely be more in touch with voters out west and in the T. The thing about Gerlach is that everyone knows he's electable statewide. That's why he's doing this Gubernatorial run. His problem is that the primary is nearly impossible for him to win with so many heavyweights in the running.

I really hope Gerlach does this. He'd definitely get my support before Meakem and Luksik. This is the guy to rally behind with Toomey and Santorum staying out.

[TeePee4Prez]

I like Gerlach, and he's got geography on his side.  If you ask me, and you should probably ask Phil instead, I'd say you have to be from SEPA these days to survive.  At least as a Republican.  We've lost so much ground there that we need every advantage we can get.

Gerlach would be absolutely perfect for a primary (ok, maybe not "absolutely perfect" for a primary) and for a General.

In the primary, he unites the anti Specter voters. They're looking for basically anyone right now. He also cuts into Specter's SE PA base. If Gerlach gets in this and runs a competent campaign, he wins. There's very little chance for a Specter victory. Gerlach can't be tagged as far right and has the SE PA argument on his side for the General.

In the General, well, like I said the guy isn't a wingnut and can't be labeled as one. He is popular with just enough people in his swing district, meaning no chance of a blow out down here. He'd definitely be more in touch with voters out west and in the T. The thing about Gerlach is that everyone knows he's electable statewide. That's why he's doing this Gubernatorial run. His problem is that the primary is nearly impossible for him to win with so many heavyweights in the running.

I really hope Gerlach does this. He'd definitely get my support before Meakem and Luksik. This is the guy to rally behind with Toomey and Santorum staying out.

I think if the Dems put pressure on Gerlach in 2008, there is a good chance he wouldn't be in Congress right now.  Obama won the district 58-41 and Gerlach barely beat token opposition.  That said, Gerlach running for the Senate makes PA 6 at least a Tossup, if not Lean Dem district.  I have to agree with you that Gerlach would be a better statewide candidate than Santorum or Toomey.  One thing I find odd though, Gerlach isn't much more to the right than Specter which brings me to my next question- Would you support Gerlach over Santorum/Toomey in a primary? 

[Keystone Phil]

One thing I find odd though, Gerlach isn't much more to the right than Specter which brings me to my next question- Would you support Gerlach over Santorum/Toomey in a primary? 

Gerlach is certainly to the right of Specter and of course I'd support Santorum or Toomey (political heroes of mine) over Gerlach but I wouldn't be pissed off with who won anyway.

If Gerlach runs, PA 6 does become a toss up but I like our chances in a midterm. Plus, look at the crop of candidates the Dems are talking about - http://www.rollcall.com/issues/54_88/politics/32323-1.html  That's not a strong list (with the exception of Dinniman and he'll still be hesitant to run).

[Smash255]

Gerlach would be a stronger candidate statewide than Toomey or Santorum.   The question is how likely is he to Primary Specter?   Gerlach is to the right of Specter, but he isn't well to the right of Specter such as Toomey or Santorum.  I would see Gerlach as more of a possibility to run if Specter decided to retire, not to Priamry him.

[Keystone Phil]

Gerlach would be a stronger candidate statewide than Toomey or Santorum.   The question is how likely is he to Primary Specter?   Gerlach is to the right of Specter, but he isn't well to the right of Specter such as Toomey or Santorum.  I would see Gerlach as more of a possibility to run if Specter decided to retire, not to Priamry him.

Gerlach is in the middle of a Gubernatorial campaign that he just can't win. He's in a position to make some deals and have a great shot at becoming a U.S. Senator. That's not something you just turn down.

I heard from someone who used to help run Gerlach's House campaigns that we're probably running Meakem. Now I could be reading too far into this but the way he worded it was odd. He didn't mention Gerlach in his response and he gave me a one sentence response to a fairly detailed message. Again, this is coming from someone who was on the Gerlach campaigns.

[Lunar]

http://community.post-gazette.com/blogs/earlyreturns/archive/2009/02/10/meakem-for-senate.aspx

[Keystone Phil]

http://community.post-gazette.com/blogs/earlyreturns/archive/2009/02/10/meakem-for-senate.aspx

I posted this yesterday. 

[Keystone Phil]

Specter starting to take heat from PA GOP leaders - http://grassrootspa.com/?p=21876#more-21876