Pennsylvania 2010 - The Official Thread

[Eraserhead]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0409/NRSC_recruiting_Gerlach.html

!!

This is gonna get ugly, folks.

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.thecrimson.com/article.aspx?ref=527836

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0409/NRSC_recruiting_Gerlach.html

!!

This is to be expected.

As I said before, I'm not too upset because I like Gerlach though prefer Toomey and don't want to see an ugly race. If he does get in, it will get bad. I'm not looking forward to it.

[Lunar]

1996 memo
http://www.scribd.com/doc/14804306/The-Arlen-Specter-Memo

[Marokai Backbeat]

1996 memo
http://www.scribd.com/doc/14804306/The-Arlen-Specter-Memo

This sort of stuff seriously does tempt me to writing a timeline.

[Lunar]

1996 memo
http://www.scribd.com/doc/14804306/The-Arlen-Specter-Memo

This sort of stuff seriously does tempt me to writing a timeline.

maybe this company could help you write it

[Lunar]

OMG EVERYONE GO HERE
http://www.politico.com/blogs/anneschroeder/0409/Specter_not_a_hand_washer.html


Sen. Arlen Specter (nowD-Pa.) has been all over the news lately, you may have read he switched parties.

And today in typical Specter style, he caused some double takes.

He was seen going to the bathroom and the problem was, he didn't wash his hands.

[Lunar]

Cillizza, who broke the Arlen switching story, is pointing towards a Republican strategy of attempting to screw over Michael Forbes (R/D NY-01), who switched from GOP to Dem for the election in 2000.  He was promised the support of Gephardt and then-President Clinton.  The GOP ran ads and messaging that talked about how conservative Forbes was (oh he opposed the AWB, and so on) just to make Forbes lose to a little-known pipsqueak candidate that the GOP then crushed in the general election.  Said pipsqueak candidate then lost to another pipsqueak candidate (D) who now leads the D+0 district, so you can see how minor Forbe's challenger must truly have been.




It's been done before... just as a heads up yo.

[Smash255]

Cillizza, who broke the Arlen switching story, is pointing towards a Republican strategy of attempting to screw over Michael Forbes (R/D NY-01), who switched from GOP to Dem for the election in 2000.  He was promised the support of Gephardt and then-President Clinton.  The GOP ran ads and messaging that talked about how conservative Forbes was (oh he opposed the AWP, and so on) just to make Forbes lose to a little-known pipsqueak candidate that the GOP then crushed in the general election.  Said pipsqueak candidate then lost to another pipsqueak candidate (D) who now leads the D+0 district, so you can see how minor Forbe's challenger must truly have been.




It's been done before... just as a heads up yo.

I was in NY-1 at the time of the 2000 election (Freshman year of college).  It was 71 year old Regina Seltzer who knocked off Forbes by 35 votes in the Primary.  Forbes remained on the ballot as the Working Families Party candidate and got 2.6% of the vote.  Grucci  who was the Town of Brookhaven Supervisor defeated Seltzer 55.5-40.6.

Grucci then lost running 50.2-48.6 for re-election after he ran an extremely negative campaign against Southampton College Provost Tim Bishop who is now in his 4th term.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0409/NRSC_recruiting_Gerlach.html

!!

This is gonna get ugly, folks.

I actually think that Toomey would be a better candidate for the seat than Gerlach.  You can't beat Specter with Specter-lite.  (Seriously.)

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0409/NRSC_recruiting_Gerlach.html

!!

This is gonna get ugly, folks.

I actually think that Toomey would be a better candidate for the seat than Gerlach.  You can't beat Specter with Specter-lite.  (Seriously.)

I kind of agree. First of all, Gerlach isn't like Specter but the point remains that he doesn't rally the base like Toomey does. Not even close.

[Torie]

Doesn't it depend in the end on how fast on their feet, and how are articulate they seem to be, and their  mastery of the issues, and ability to seem cognizant that their are competing considerations to wrestle with, and maybe it is time to think a bit out of the box? Or  is PA just too different from my state, and all of that  seems more frightening than stimulating to a state whose polity  in some ways remains in a political time warp more than most states; e.g. it still has  strong unions, a lot of social conservatives, with seculars kind of thin on the ground, and where the tendency is to think pork is one's favorite meat?

[Keystone Phil]

Doesn't it depend in the end on how fast on their feet, and how are articulate they seem to be, and their  mastery of the issues, and ability to seem cognizant that their are competing considerations to wrestle with, and maybe it is time to think a bit out of the box?

Sure, it does and Toomey is strong in all of those areas. And that's ignored. All the time.

it still has  strong unions, a lot of social conservatives, with seculars kind of thin on the ground, and where the tendency is to think pork is one's favorite meat?

Hey, that's the case here, too. We're a real mixed bag, my friend.

By the way, I don't like how you say that seculars are "thin on the ground," as if their scarcity means that other groups (like social conservatives) make up all of the "dumb voters."

[Lunar]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0409/NRSC_recruiting_Gerlach.html

!!

This is gonna get ugly, folks.

I actually think that Toomey would be a better candidate for the seat than Gerlach.  You can't beat Specter with Specter-lite.  (Seriously.)

I kind of agree.

National Republican senatorial strategists who's career it is to figure out who's the most electable disagree... for what it's worth (although they can't be that talented considering the last four years).  Thus Hatch's recent comments, among other things.  Not saying they're better or worse than us on the forum, but that's one conservative view that's going to influence national donors and stuff


Traditionally, a moderate who emerges from a serious primary challenge from the left/right emerges stronger than he would have without that primary challenge.  However, the reverse is obviously not true.

What is Gerlach moderate on, Phil?  I'm too lazy to look up the issues and figure you'll know.  It's not exclusively temperament, I assume.

[Keystone Phil]

National Republican senatorial strategists who's career it is to figure out who's the most electable disagree...

I said I kind of agree but I worry that too many people are focused on just being able to play with the moderates (not even necessarily winning them).


Traditionally, a moderate who emerges from a serious primary challenge from the left/right emerges stronger than he would have without that primary challenge.  However, the reverse is obviously not true.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I think it mainly is temperament. I've always argued that Gerlach is more center right, not actually moderate. He boasts about being a fiscal conservative so it's mainly social issues where he finds himself closer to the middle.

[Lunar]

Like how?  Civil unions?

[Keystone Phil]

Like how?  Civil unions?

Oh, I'm sure but, again, is that something that makes people "center right." If so, I'm center right. Granted, I'm definitely more center right than I am extreme (a point clearly ignored on this forum) but I'm not suddenly actually center right because I believe in civil unions.

I'm pretty sure that Gerlach is very much in favor of stem cell research and is very serious about environmental issues (and more so than someone like myself. I think he's a big drilling skeptic).

[Lunar]

as a side note, are there any analytical posters on the forum that oppose civil unions?


Fair enough, I'm interested in Gerlach for how his positions will "develop" if he does run in opposition to Toomey.  Will he advertise himself as the true conservative, or the electable anti-Wall Street conservative or something else?  The national establishment supporting Gerlach would clearly be a key factor in his candidacy for a machine state like Pennsylvania, I presume.

[Keystone Phil]

Fair enough, I'm interested in Gerlach for how his positions will "develop" if he does run in opposition to Toomey.  Will he advertise himself as the true conservative, or the electable anti-Wall Street conservative or something else?  The national establishment supporting Gerlach would clearly be a key factor in his candidacy for a machine state like Pennsylvania, I presume.

Gerlach is certainly conservative enough. Sure, some of my friends on the right will complain about certain issues with Gerlach but, honestly, he's a good fit. I really like the guy. That being said, the problem is that he's not as known, respected and trusted as Toomey. He doesn't have the statewide organization. Gerlach can have that national money and even some big name backers and an acceptable voting record (he'd brand himself as a conservative in the primary. Funny enough, Toomey is running as the Main Street, not Wall Street, candidate. Gerlach would try to steal that and probably label himself as a "common sense conservative" - like myself) but that's not necessarily enough. Gerlach doesn't get people excited, Pat Toomey does.

This is the key problem for Gerlach: he's not getting people that want Toomey to drop their support and run his way. Too many of us find ourselves really invested in Pat. We might like Gerlach but it's just not enough. I'll gladly vote and work my ass off for Gerlach if he got to the General but he lacks the star power to get there.

I don't doubt for a second that it would be a close primary though. Let me make that very clear.

[Lunar]

Ok, I'd agree with all of that.  I think everyone needs to take a chill pill and wait to see who declared over the next couple weeks before we overspeculate on this and that.  Hell, Gerlach NEEDS to see what Specter's current popularity ratings are among both the general electorate and Democratic primary electorate before he even begins to take serious steps into this race.  The polling will be coming out this weekend (and a lot of private polling won't be coming out publicly about the same time).

How do you think the machine bosses would respond, though?  I'd guess that the'd tend to back Gerlach and that would be significant.

[Aizen]

why does pennsylvania always get all the attention all the time. ugh.

[Lunar]

why does pennsylvania always get all the attention all the time. ugh.

posters from PA are disproportionately represented and heavily involved in politics, and elections there are usually competitive

I post a lot on lesser known states, such as Kentucky, Florida, Colorado, etc... how come you haven't visited those threads SIR?! I'm thinking about getting into Missouri.

[Keystone Phil]

How do you think the machine bosses would respond, though?  I'd guess that the'd tend to back Gerlach and that would be significant.

Well, a lot of leaders are already getting behind Toomey (Allegheny chair just endorsed him) but the machine (in my area of the state especially)...well...let's put it this way: they'll dislike my even more than they did before if I stick with Toomey over Gerlach. The machine is most areas will back Gerlach more strongly than they ever backed Arlen.

That's the problem I have with a Gerlach vs. Toomey race. We've been over where my allegiances lie but I'm going to hate watching that fight. I'm going to hate having to battle with certain people, promoting my candidate over someone else I really like. Check my Facebook Fan pages. I'm not a fan of many people. I'm a fan of both Pat and Jim. I just really hope that this doesn't happen.

[Lunar]

PRESS: If you believe that Arlen Specter is the strongest candidate, will you support him in the Democratic primary?

CASEY: I'll support him and it doesn't mean that he doesn't have some work to do to go around the state and to listen to people in our party and go through the process. In the end, if my goal, which has to be my goal, is to make sure that we have two Democrats in the Senate in 2011, its important that I support him, I believe.

PRESS: You'll support him no matter who runs against him?

CASEY: Yes.

[Lunar]

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/05/republicans-running-anti--and-pro-specter-robocalls-in-pa.php

[Lunar]

http://community.post-gazette.com/blogs/earlyreturns/archive/2009/04/30/roddey-endorses-toomey.aspx

Pittsburgh's county chair endorses Toomey, that's a shot across Gerlach's bow



and Pat has an op-ed:
http://www.philly.com/philly/opinion/20090430_The_Specterquake__The_senator_s_betrayal.html?cmpid=16339736