Pennsylvania 2010 - The Official Thread

[Lunar]

I'm not channeling Don, I'm answering a question, I'm sorry if it means the thread being ruined, I don't think it will.  Pat does love getting rid of RINOs by all means possible though, that's pretty much what CfG does and damn/bless the consequences depending on whether it's a moderate/conservative district respectively. 

But I'm not interested in CfG here, just explaining that Toomey probably loves the fact that he got Arlen to "show his true colors" [when in fact he doesn't have any]



In PA news, Specter did vote against Obama's budget.  Obama doesn't care though, he only needs Specter's vote on certain issues..

[Lunar]

Wouldn't it be hilarious if he lost the Democratic primary because he tacked too far to the right?

[Ronnie]

Wouldn't it be hilarious if he lost the Democratic primary because he tacked too far to the right?

Well, he won't lose, so that speculation is pointless.

[Keystone Phil]

Wouldn't it be hilarious if he lost the Democratic primary because he tacked too far to the right?

That's what I've been saying. I'm still unsure which I'd love to see more - Toomey beating him in the General or someone beating Specter in the primary.

I'd love to see the look in his face if he was informed that he lost the primary. Just the shock...the confusion...the sickness...

Wouldn't it be hilarious if he lost the Democratic primary because he tacked too far to the right?

Well, he won't lose, so that speculation is pointless.

It could happen. Let's wait and see.

[Lunar]

Wouldn't it be hilarious if he lost the Democratic primary because he tacked too far to the right?

Well, he won't lose, so that speculation is pointless.

If he votes down some critical bills that he promised Obama, Reid, Biden, and crew, it's not pointless whatsoever.  If he somehow were to be the critical vote on a compromised version of EFCA and rejected it, he could even be favored to lose.


Like I said, I'd bet a lot that he promised that he'd have Obama's back whenever the 59/60 or 49/50 vote was critical in exchange for support.

The first test is that Dawn Johnson (sp) nominee that Specter opposed...dum dum dum.. but not necessarily the cloture vote!  It's that sort of technicality stuff, opposing stuff but not the cloture vote, that Biden demanded for his support.  I think it was truly smart for Obama to use Biden as his operative here because Biden's been in the Senate for so long.

[Keystone Phil]

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2009/04/29/gop-using-specters-own-campaign-ads-against-him/

[Keystone Phil]

I just want the NRSC to run this over and over and over...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T2q7hei3T3E


The same thing that saved him in 2004 primary would be what dooms him in the 2010 primary.

[Lunar]

I posted that video in one of these threads a while back...

Reid, Menendez, and Obama, are not the type of people who enter into these agreements casually, nor are they the type of people who can't follow through with their promises to carry him through in his primary.

If Specter does Obama's bidding, as he's presumably agreed to on votes that matter to the Senate leadership and the White House, he's probably in the clear in the primary... supposing Reid & Menendez & Barack follow through with their own promises to aggressively push Arlen through the Democratic primary.... *shrug*  The White House is jaded enough to realize that they don't want or need 80 votes on every bill, Rahm's smart enough to know what he needs and when.  As I said, we need to watch the Dawn nomination, which could come down to a single vote and Specter said he opposes...   if he opposes her in this sceario but allows the up-or-down vote [rejects the cloture] it will mean I'm right.

However, Arlen has made a few missteps lately and who knows if he'll make one again, he's not used to being a Democrat for a few decades.  I'm 90% sure he wishes he could take his stimulus vote back, and that was a no-brainer.

[TeePee4Prez]

Wouldn't it be hilarious if he lost the Democratic primary because he tacked too far to the right?

Well, he won't lose, so that speculation is pointless.

I can tell you my vote for Arlen isn't guaranteed in the primary.

[Lunar]

Wouldn't it be hilarious if he lost the Democratic primary because he tacked too far to the right?

Well, he won't lose, so that speculation is pointless.

I can tell you my vote for Arlen isn't guaranteed in the primary.

I wouldn't vote for him if I were you.  He'll support Obama's agenda for two years but you have no idea what he'll do afterwards.  No one does.  Obama is reasonably banking that he'll gain enough Senate seats in 2010 to not have to care.  As long as the Democrats have an electable candidate who does't ride on a campaign of being out of the mainstream, they're probably better off without him 2011 onwards.

It's tough to see Arlen serving out too many more six-year turns ...

[Keystone Phil]

Wagner staying away is the most non-shocking news out of all of this but Sestak continuing to take shots at Specter's switch (on national TV no less) is a bit surprising. I really hope he gets in.

[Lunar]

If it doesn't work out for him, maybe he should switch back to becoming a Republican and compete in that primary

[Keystone Phil]

If it doesn't work out for him, maybe he should switch back to becoming a Republican and compete in that primary

Yeah, maybe.

What are we thinking he'd get? 20%? 25%?

[Keystone Phil]

Facebook Fan Page update...

Arlen Specter - 4,049

Pat Toomey - 3,956

[Lunar]

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/04/sestak-specter-better-shape-up.php

My predicted threats will continue for a while

[Keystone Phil]

Basically saying, "People want me in the Senate race" - http://grassrootspa.com/?p=29403

[Lief 🗽]

Facebook Fan Page update...

Arlen Specter - 4,049

Pat Toomey - 3,956

A lot of my friends that are big into College Democrats have become Facebook fans of his (Specter's) in recent days. It's really gross.

[Keystone Phil]

By the way, Hatch and Graham need to shut the hell up with this "Toomey can't win...go find someone that can win in PA" nonsense. Let's try acting mature, guys, and try being somewhat supportive of the actual Republican in the race instead of saying he's a sure loss against Specter.

[Lunar]

By the way, Hatch and Graham need to shut the hell up with this "Toomey can't win...go find someone that can win in PA" nonsense. Let's try acting mature, guys, and try being somewhat supportive of the actual Republican in the race instead of saying he's a sure loss against Specter.

indeed, lamenting about CfG is one thing, but they shouldn't trash the frontrunner for the GOP nomination and decrease his funding.

maybe they have a hostile relationship with him for reasons outside of his electability

I mean, Carly Fiorina can't beat Boxer, but what's the point in talking that up?

[Keystone Phil]

maybe they have a hostile relationship with him for reasons outside of his electability

Oh, I know Graham does and I'm sure Hatch equates Toomey's actions as President of the Club to that of someone who murders his friends.

That's ok though. Let the GOP Washington establishment trash Toomey and have him appear as more of an outsider. 

[Badger]

Specter is simply not going to get a serious primary challenge. Torsella is apparently dropping out soon (close Rendell ties noted, thanks Phil), and I can't imagine Sestak giving up a basically safe house seat to take a Hail Mary pass against the entire party organization. These are just noises being made to make sure Arlen jumps a couple steps leftward in his voting.
Any primary challenge Specter gets will be similar to his pre-2004 GOP challengers: a no-name ideologue without money or party organization who rides protest votes to a 25-35% showing (and even that's assuming Specter doesn't even spend more than an absolute minimum of time and resources for the primary).
No, we don't know what the conditions will be like in Nov 2010, but if Obama's approval rating is better than 40% Toomey will lose; 35% or less and Specter loses. Yes, that bar is incredibly low, but then so are Toomey's chances. He wouldn't need such crappy numbers from Obama against another Democrat other than Wagner or Rendell to pull it off, but Specter's incumbency, independence and relatively moderate views remove any chance of turning the race into a generic "conservative republican vs. liberal democrat" contest.

[Lunar]

Hatch's job is to maximize the number of Republicans elected, as he's aiming to be NRSC chairman after Cornyn I presume.  He'll take Crist over Rubio any day.

[Lunar]

Specter is simply not going to get a serious primary challenge. Torsella is apparently dropping out soon (close Rendell ties noted, thanks Phil), and I can't imagine Sestak giving up a basically safe house seat to take a Hail Mary pass against the entire party organization. These are just noises being made to make sure Arlen jumps a couple steps leftward in his voting.
Any primary challenge Specter gets will be similar to his pre-2004 GOP challengers: a no-name ideologue without money or party organization who rides protest votes to a 25-35% showing (and even that's assuming Specter doesn't even spend more than an absolute minimum of time and resources for the primary).
No, we don't know what the conditions will be like in Nov 2010, but if Obama's approval rating is better than 40% Toomey will lose; 35% or less and Specter loses. Yes, that bar is incredibly low, but then so are Toomey's chances. He wouldn't need such crappy numbers from Obama against another Democrat other than Wagner or Rendell to pull it off, but Specter's incumbency, independence and relatively moderate views remove any chance of turning the race into a generic "conservative republican vs. liberal democrat" contest.

The Demcratic Establishment's support is conditional on Specter delivering certain critical votes.  It's not a blank check.

[Badger]

Specter is simply not going to get a serious primary challenge. Torsella is apparently dropping out soon (close Rendell ties noted, thanks Phil), and I can't imagine Sestak giving up a basically safe house seat to take a Hail Mary pass against the entire party organization. These are just noises being made to make sure Arlen jumps a couple steps leftward in his voting.
Any primary challenge Specter gets will be similar to his pre-2004 GOP challengers: a no-name ideologue without money or party organization who rides protest votes to a 25-35% showing (and even that's assuming Specter doesn't even spend more than an absolute minimum of time and resources for the primary).
No, we don't know what the conditions will be like in Nov 2010, but if Obama's approval rating is better than 40% Toomey will lose; 35% or less and Specter loses. Yes, that bar is incredibly low, but then so are Toomey's chances. He wouldn't need such crappy numbers from Obama against another Democrat other than Wagner or Rendell to pull it off, but Specter's incumbency, independence and relatively moderate views remove any chance of turning the race into a generic "conservative republican vs. liberal democrat" contest.

The Demcratic Establishment's support is conditional on Specter delivering certain critical votes.  It's not a blank check.

Absolutely correct. And Specter, being Specter--always practical and never very conservative (outside gun control)--will deliver.

[Lunar]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0409/NRSC_recruiting_Gerlach.html

!!