Virginia 2009 Megathread

[Mr. Morden]

Intrade:

Deeds 90.0
McAuliffe 10.0
Moran 3.0

McAuliffe was at about 20 just ~24 hours ago.

[Eraserhead]

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/06/08/mcauliffe_goes_after_deeds.html

Too late.

[Sam Spade]

Looking at the polling, it looks like a consolidation last-minute move in favor of Deeds that sometimes happens in primaries, but when backed up by a couple of polls (especially the one I trust in primaries - SUSA) means it is probably occurring.

Although it is nearly impossible to predict primaries, I would be surprised if Deeds lost this one.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Desperate last-minute slime from Terry and his blogger pals:

http://virginiademocrat.blogspot.com/2009/06/brief-personal-comment-on-attack.html

Whatever happened to "negative attacks won't create JOBS!!!!!111", Terry?

[Meeker]

I should mention I do have a vague gut feeling Terry will still win this... so if it happens then I can quote this. Still sticking with my prediction in the other thread though.

[Lunar]

THUNDERSTORMS IN DEEDS COUNTRY RIGHT NOW


"The Capital Weather Gang expects a humid morning followed by afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the state tomorrow, with the storms being more intense in the Eastern portions of the state, including the D.C. region."

[Landslide Lyndon]

THUNDERSTORMS IN DEEDS COUNTRY RIGHT NOW


"The Capital Weather Gang expects a humid morning followed by afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the state tomorrow, with the storms being more intense in the Eastern portions of the state, including the D.C. region."

I thought that Deeds was from western Virginia.

[Lunar]

well, they go from west to east

or something, the thunderstorms were mostly in Deed's area just in the early morning

[Lunar]

thunder is going to hit the DC burbs hard 4ish

[Keystone Phil]

thunder is going to hit the DC burbs hard 4ish

That hurts Moran and Deeds (because of the WaPo endorsement), right?

[Lief 🗽]

Exciting turnout pictures from the Wonkette:

[Lunar]

thunder is going to hit the DC burbs hard 4ish

That hurts Moran and Deeds (because of the WaPo endorsement), right?

Eh, I don't expect a decreased NoVa turnout to hurt Deeds

Turnout has been very poor in some African-American neighborhoods I hear too.

[Rowan]

Here is an e-mail Terry is circulating:

We conducted a poll over the last three nights - with 200 interviews a night. We never base decisions on one night’s worth of interviews because the sample is too small. But throughout this campaign our night-by-night numbers have been reliable and have picked up trends such as the recent increase in support for Deeds. I am encouraged that last night’s interviews have us tied with Deeds.

McAuliffe: 33
Deeds: 33
Moran: 21

While this is not definitive, last night’s trend shows this is a competitive race and we need to make sure that every vote counts and we need to make every effort to turn out our voters today.

Mark my words: we can win this thing tonight.

[Keystone Phil]

It's over. Releasing a "poll" on the day of the primary showing you at exactly the same amount as the guy who is leading you by double digits in every real poll is just so sad.

[Lunar]

Here is an e-mail Terry is circulating:

We conducted a poll over the last three nights - with 200 interviews a night. We never base decisions on one night’s worth of interviews because the sample is too small. But throughout this campaign our night-by-night numbers have been reliable and have picked up trends such as the recent increase in support for Deeds. I am encouraged that last night’s interviews have us tied with Deeds.

McAuliffe: 33
Deeds: 33
Moran: 21

While this is not definitive, last night’s trend shows this is a competitive race and we need to make sure that every vote counts and we need to make every effort to turn out our voters today.

Mark my words: we can win this thing tonight.

An internal poll of 200 people?  Awesome.

[Keystone Phil]

An internal poll of 200 people?  Awesome.

LOL yeah. That, too.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It's been storming here in hampton roads since about 3. Not good for terry, he needs the african-american vote (of which there is plenty in the area) to win.

[Lunar]

Arlington:

At 4:30 p.m., Linda Lindberg, head of Arlington County's election office, said that they think they are running at about 10-12 percent turnout in Arlington. The afternoon has been a little slow, she said, though the percentage could go up if voters swayed by the morning storm make it to the polls in the evening.

Alexandria:

By 1:45 p.m., 344 people had voted at City Hall -- 60 absentee ballots were cast -- out of 2,892 registered voters.

About 6,000 voters across Alexandria had cast ballots by noon, according to a survey taken by election officials.

"Frankly, that's more than I expected," said Alexandria Registrar Tom Parkins, who has accurately predicted voter turnout in the last two elections. "But honestly, I didn't have a lot to go on. The last Democratic gubernatorial primary was 30 years ago."

Typically, turnout in primary elections in Alexandria can hover around 5 or 6 percent. Barring any more of the thunderstorms that might have kept some voters from the polls early, Parkins said he would expect as many as 12,000 voters -- about 15 percent of registered voters -- to cast ballots by the time polls close at 7 p.m.

Bath County:

At 3 p.m., 429 of 2,690 registered voters, or 16 percent, had cast ballots.

Fairfax County:

At Brookfield Elementary in Chantilly, where voting took place in a tiny classroom, 105 out of 3,988 voted by 3:15 p.m.

Loudoun County:

At Seldens Landing Elementary, 24 out of 4,109 had voted as of 2:30 p.m.

Prince William County:

As of 1 p.m., about 3,757 voters had voted out of 222,000, Registrar Betty Weimer said.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics/2009/06/early_turnout_numbers.html

[Kaine for Senate '18]

The storms are absurd in Arlington.  I'm posting from my synagogue; my house lost internet around 6 AM.  All day, though, it was beautiful, so I don't expect turnout to be down too much here from what it otherwise would have been.

[Saxwsylvania]

What does she mean when they say there hasn't been a Democratic gubernatorial primary in thirty years?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

What does she mean when they say there hasn't been a Democratic gubernatorial primary in thirty years?

Competitive, most likely.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It means there hasn't been a primary since 1977. There has either been an unopposed candidate or a nominating convention.

[exopolitician]

I just voted. I was the only one there pretty much...about 5 seconds after I voted another guy came in though. I'm sure it's been that slow all day.

[War on Want]

I am guessing that my prediction of Moran coming in second is going to be way off now, with his strongest area having huge storms.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Results thread is yonder:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=97207.0