UK Election 2010

[Harry Hayfield]

Past August Average Polls (compared to GE result)
August 1987: Con 46.5% Lab 36% Lib Dem 16% Oth 2%
August 1988: Con 47.5% Lab 37.5% Lib Dem 12.5% Oth 4%
August 1989: Con 37% Lab 44% Lib Dem 9.5% Oth 9.5%
August 1990: Con 35.75% Lab 49% Lib Dem 10.25% Oth 5.5%
August 1991: Con 39% Lab 42% Lib Dem 15.5% Oth 4%
1992: Con 42% Lab 34% Lib Dem 18% Oth 6%
August 1992: Con 39.5% Lab 44% Lib Dem 13.5% Oth 3%
August 1993: Con 29% Lab 39% Lib Dem 26% Oth 6%
August 1994: Con 25.5% Lab 52.25% Lib Dem 18% Oth 3.75%
August 1995: Con 27.5% Lab 52.5% Lib Dem 16% Oth 4%
August 1996: Con 29% Lab 52% Lib Dem 15% Oth 4.5%
1997: Con 31% Lab 44% Lib Dem 18% Oth 7%
August 1997: Con 26.5% Lab 56% Lib Dem 13.5% Oth 4%
August 1998: Con 29.5% Lab 50% Lib Dem 15% Oth 5.5%
August 1999: Con 29.5% Lab 49.5% Lib Dem 14.5% Oth 6.5%
August 2000: Con 31.5% Lab 47.5% Lib Dem 14.5% Oth 6%
2001: Con 32% Lab 41% Lib Dem 18% Oth 9%
August 2001: Con 27.5% Lab 49.5% Lib Dem 16.5% Oth 6.5%
August 2002: Con 33% Lab 40% Lib Dem 20.5% Oth 6.5%
August 2003: Con 35% Lab 35.5% Lib Dem 22.5% Oth 8%
August 2004: Con 32.5% Lab 34% Lib Dem 22.5% Oth 10.5%
2005: Con 33% Lab 36% Lib Dem 23% Oth 8%
August 2005: Con 32% Lab 39% Lib Dem 22% Oth 7.5%
August 2006: Con 39% Lab 31% Lib Dem 20% Oth 10%
August 2007: Con 33% Lab 40% Lib Dem 16% Oth 11%

[Ben.]

Past August Average Polls (compared to GE result)
August 1987: Con 46.5% Lab 36% Lib Dem 16% Oth 2%
August 1988: Con 47.5% Lab 37.5% Lib Dem 12.5% Oth 4%
August 1989: Con 37% Lab 44% Lib Dem 9.5% Oth 9.5%
August 1990: Con 35.75% Lab 49% Lib Dem 10.25% Oth 5.5%
August 1991: Con 39% Lab 42% Lib Dem 15.5% Oth 4%
1992: Con 42% Lab 34% Lib Dem 18% Oth 6%
August 1992: Con 39.5% Lab 44% Lib Dem 13.5% Oth 3%
August 1993: Con 29% Lab 39% Lib Dem 26% Oth 6%
August 1994: Con 25.5% Lab 52.25% Lib Dem 18% Oth 3.75%
August 1995: Con 27.5% Lab 52.5% Lib Dem 16% Oth 4%
August 1996: Con 29% Lab 52% Lib Dem 15% Oth 4.5%
1997: Con 31% Lab 44% Lib Dem 18% Oth 7%
August 1997: Con 26.5% Lab 56% Lib Dem 13.5% Oth 4%
August 1998: Con 29.5% Lab 50% Lib Dem 15% Oth 5.5%
August 1999: Con 29.5% Lab 49.5% Lib Dem 14.5% Oth 6.5%
August 2000: Con 31.5% Lab 47.5% Lib Dem 14.5% Oth 6%
2001: Con 32% Lab 41% Lib Dem 18% Oth 9%
August 2001: Con 27.5% Lab 49.5% Lib Dem 16.5% Oth 6.5%
August 2002: Con 33% Lab 40% Lib Dem 20.5% Oth 6.5%
August 2003: Con 35% Lab 35.5% Lib Dem 22.5% Oth 8%
August 2004: Con 32.5% Lab 34% Lib Dem 22.5% Oth 10.5%
2005: Con 33% Lab 36% Lib Dem 23% Oth 8%
August 2005: Con 32% Lab 39% Lib Dem 22% Oth 7.5%
August 2006: Con 39% Lab 31% Lib Dem 20% Oth 10%
August 2007: Con 33% Lab 40% Lib Dem 16% Oth 11%

Worth bearing in mind that historically there are very few polls conducted in August anyway. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Worth bearing in mind that historically there are very few polls conducted in August anyway. 

And with good reason; August polls tend to be even more worthless than normal polls.

[afleitch]

Worth bearing in mind that historically there are very few polls conducted in August anyway. 

And with good reason; August polls tend to be even more worthless than normal polls.

I prefer to put my faith in the polls conducted over the weekend of 1st-2nd of September

In other news David 'Lurch to the Right' Cameron has been accused of doing the...well complete opposite; of abandoning core-Tory/Thatcher (interchangable here) values. For those like me who believe true conservatism suffered a punch in the gut after Thatcher's first term it's a welcome indictment.

Mr Ancram was not the only politician to praise Thatcher today. Gordon Brown showered praise on her at todays press conference. He also refused a debate with Cameron should there be an election despite being on the record as demanding a debate between Thatcher and Kinnock twenty years ago.

[Hash]

Could anybody tell me how the seat distribution would have been with the August 1997 poll average (Lab 56%, Con 26.5%, LD 13.5%, Other 4%)?

[Democratic Hawk]

Mr Ancram was not the only politician to praise Thatcher today. Gordon Brown showered praise on her at todays press conference.

My understanding was that Brown was praising Thatcher as a 'conviction' politician rather than praising her convictions. That's my take on it anyway. And, in all fairness to the Baroness, there can be no denying that the old witch wasn't that

Ancram, nevertheless, generated a rather heated 'debate' on the Torygraph between 'progressives' (left-of-centre to centre-right) and reactionaries (right-wing nutjobs/anti-EU whackadoos). I don't know what the wider effect, if any, of this will be but coming from a former Deputy Leader

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Could anybody tell me how the seat distribution would have been with the August 1997 poll average (Lab 56%, Con 26.5%, LD 13.5%, Other 4%)?

1931 in reverse

[Harry Hayfield]

Could anybody tell me how the seat distribution would have been with the August 1997 poll average (Lab 56%, Con 26.5%, LD 13.5%, Other 4%)?

With pleasure. In a nutshell, a super Lab landslide (and the first government to poll more than 50% of all votes cast since the Second World War).

Labour 514 seats (+94 seats), Conservatives 96 seats (-66 seats), Lib Dems 28 seats (-19) Others 21 seats (-8). Labour majority of 369.

[afleitch]

Of course bear in mind Labour were polling so highly because of their landslide and first few months in government. Considering the 1997 election could not have been held any later than it was and I doubt Blair would go to the country so soon (though in retrospect, knowning Blair...) after his election I think the polls then were more than a tad inflated

[Ben.]

Could anybody tell me how the seat distribution would have been with the August 1997 poll average (Lab 56%, Con 26.5%, LD 13.5%, Other 4%)?

With pleasure. In a nutshell, a super Lab landslide (and the first government to poll more than 50% of all votes cast since the Second World War).

Labour 514 seats (+94 seats), Conservatives 96 seats (-66 seats), Lib Dems 28 seats (-19) Others 21 seats (-8). Labour majority of 369.

Makes you wonder which MPs of note would be left amongst the Conservatives.

[Harry Hayfield]

I am taking as "of note" to mean ministers in the 1992 - 1997 Conservative Cabinet.

Oliver Letwin (Dorset West) Con 39% Lib Dem 32% Lab 27% UKIP 2% NLP 0%
Michael Mates (Hampshire East) Con 46% Lab 26% Lib Dem 24% UKIP 4% Green 1%
Sir George Young (Hampshire North West) Con 41% Lab 34% Lib Dem 20% Green 2% UKIP 2% Ind 1%
Michael Portillo (Kensington and Chelsea) Con 47% Lab 39% Lib Dem 12% UKIP 1% Oth 1%
Ann Widdecombe (Maidstone and the Weald) Con 40% Lab 38% Lib Dem 18% UKIP 3% Green 2% Oth 1%
David Maclean (Penrith and the Border) Con 44% Lab 32% Lib Dem 22% UKIP 3%
William Hague (Richmond, Yorks) Con 43% Lab 39% Lib Dem 15% UKIP 3%
Virginia Bottomley (Surrey South West) Con 45% Lib Dem 36% Lab 15% UKIP 4% Oth 0%

[minionofmidas]

Portillo didn't represent Kensington & Chelsea in 1997.

[Verily]

And, if the Tories were to do that badly, there'd definitely be anti-Tory tactical voting in favor of the LDs in Dorset West and in favor of Labour in Maidstone and the Weald and Richmond, Yorks, enough to oust Letwin, Widdecombe, and Hague.

[Harry Hayfield]

Portillo didn't represent Kensington & Chelsea in 1997.

True, but he was a member of the 1992 - 1997 Cabinet. Although he was defeated as Defence Minister in Enfield, Southgate in 1997, he was elected to Kensington and Chelsea in 1999.

[StateBoiler]

Brown stops rumors he may call snap election due to Northern Rock Crisis.

http://business.guardian.co.uk/markets/story/0,,2170868,00.html

[Peter]

Bob Wareing deselected in Liverpool West Derby - replaced by Stephen Twigg

They found him a safe seat then.

[Democratic Hawk]

Meanwhile, a new ICM poll in The Guardian , largely carried out after the news of the Northern Rock crisis broke, (Sep 13 - 16)

The swing against Cameron

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/libdems/story/0,,2172188,00.html

. ICM reveal him as least popular leader
. Labour lead up despite bank crisis

LAB 40% (+1); CON 32% (-2); LDEM 20% (+2)

Net approvals:

Brown: +32 (all voters) / +73 (Lab voters)

Cameron: -8 (all voters) / + 25 (Con voters)

Campbell: - 5 (all voters) / +48 (LD voters)

More on this poll here:

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/conservatives/story/0,,2172112,00.html

This poll respresents Labour's biggest lead over the Conservatives since a 9-point lead back in September 2005, when it was LAB 40%; CON 31%; LDEM 21% and biggest since Cameron was elected leader of the Conservative Party in December 2005

Only two ICM polls, both March 2006, had Labour leading the Conservatives in the period between Cameron being elected leader and Blair standing down

http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/voting-intention/icm

Dave

[Peter]

Ultimately I think you can put this sort of poll down to the fact that if faced with a crunch decision - i.e. economy about to hit choppier water because of global economic factors, voters go with those who have proven themselves to be able to weather choppy waters before.

[Harry Hayfield]

What constitutes a landslide?

With that poll suggesting a Labour majority of over 100, the term "landslide" is being used in some quarters, but I would like to know in a 650 member House, what would count as a landslide?

[Verily]

400 seats or more.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Tory M.P for Croydon Central (Andrew Pelling) has been arrested for wife-beating.

[minionofmidas]

The Tory M.P for Croydon Central (Andrew Pelling) has been arrested for wife-beating.

That's a marginal.

[afleitch]

The Tory M.P for Croydon Central (Andrew Pelling) has been arrested for wife-beating.

It's technically called 'domestic abuse' - sorry to sound pedantic, but wife beating as a term just bugs me (particularly if the victim isn't married, is a man or part of a same sex couple)

[afleitch]

What constitutes a landslide?

With that poll suggesting a Labour majority of over 100, the term "landslide" is being used in some quarters, but I would like to know in a 650 member House, what would count as a landslide?

While Labour would hold its majority if it went to the country now, a majority of over 100 is way off (like those 200+ majorities predicted between 2002 and 2005 by people who can't read polls to save themselves) It may even improve on it's notional 40 something majority, but not by more than a dozen.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Tory M.P for Croydon Central (Andrew Pelling) has been arrested for wife-beating.

It's technically called 'domestic abuse' - sorry to sound pedantic, but wife beating as a term just bugs me (particularly if the victim isn't married, is a man or part of a same sex couple)

Pedant!!!!11

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Btw, just a reminder to everyone, but it's innocent until proven guilty, as always. Posts that indicate otherwise will, of course, have to be edited.