UK Election 2010

[Democratic Hawk]

The Tory M.P for Croydon Central (Andrew Pelling) has been arrested for wife-beating.

And in what is now a notionally marginal Labour seat, as a result of boundary changes

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

What constitutes a landslide?

With that poll suggesting a Labour majority of over 100, the term "landslide" is being used in some quarters, but I would like to know in a 650 member House, what would count as a landslide?

While Labour would hold its majority if it went to the country now, a majority of over 100 is way off (like those 200+ majorities predicted between 2002 and 2005 by people who can't read polls to save themselves) It may even improve on it's notional 40 something majority, but not by more than a dozen.

Part of my would like to see Labour returned on an increase in the popular vote (and, overall, vote share) but with a slightly reduced majority, which could strenghthen 'legitimacy'. It's difficult to conceive to see Labour not losing ground

That said were Labour to make a net gain of seats, thereby, increasing it's majority I won't exactly be crying in my cornflakes

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, the rumours of an October election do seem to be growing again. And the counter-rumours continue to circulate also.
I suspect we'll know more soon-ish.

[Harry Hayfield]

The suggestion is of a timescale along these lines:

Sunday September 23rd - Thursday September 27th 2007: Labour Party Conference
either Friday September 28th or more likely Monday October 1st: Brown visits the Queen and seeks a dissolution of Parliament for a general election
Sunday September 30th - Thursday October 4th 2007: Conservative Party Conference (either cancelled or postponed)
Thursday October 25th 2007: General Election

[Hash]

An election campaign in the UK in October and an also likely-ish campaign in Canada for general election would be interesting.

[afleitch]

To call it before the Conservative conference is mean spirited; costing the party money, their supporters money, catering staff, hotels and the whole town money from the party and media circus. But I have grown to expect that of Brown; he has to go to the country before the new parliamentary session, as that is where he got off to a shaky start before the summer break  and where his ability to get legislation through parliament would be tested. The unions should give him a bit of a tough ride over closing down half of the Remploy factories for the disabled and the failure to secure equal pay for low paid female workers. But, again I expect them to roll over and let their bellies be tickled.

The sooner the unions disaffiliate (and I'm saying this as a union man myself) and stand on their own two feet, the better it will be for workers.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Was re-reading my copy of the Grauniad today and I noticed something in the last paragraph from Brown's article in it:

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[Silent Hunter]

My 1p:

Now's as good a time as any. Wait to the Tory conference is done (for fairness' sake) then go to the Queen.

I bet Cameron's regretting calling for Brown to go to the country.

[SPQR]

What's the last relevant poll?

[Democratic Hawk]

What's the last relevant poll?

ICM/Sunday Mirror, completed 21 Sep (changes on ICM/The Guardian, 16 Sep):

LAB 39% (-1) / CON 33% (+1) / LDEM 19% (-1)

Most recent YouGov/Daily Telegraph, completed 21 Sep (changes on YouGov, The Sunday Times, 14 Sep):

LAB 39% (n/c) / CON 33% (-1) / LDEM 16% (+1)

Dave

[SPQR]

What's the last relevant poll?

ICM/Sunday Mirror, completed 21 Sep (changes on ICM/The Guardian, 16 Sep):

LAB 39% (-1) / CON 33% (+1) / LDEM 19% (-1)

Most recent YouGov/Daily Telegraph, completed 21 Sep (changes on YouGov, The Sunday Times, 14 Sep):

LAB 39% (n/c) / CON 33% (-1) / LDEM 16% (+1)

Dave

Wow...the last poll I saw had the conservatives with a 6/7and that was in April or so...looks like Brown won't be staying just for 5 months then.

[Democratic Hawk]

Wait to the Tory conference is done (for fairness' sake) then go to the Queen.

I agree

Could it be a blood-letting Conservative Party Conference? Lets face it Labour had to go through enough of them for the party to become 'fit for purpose'. It's only fair that Conservatives do too

Of course, it's not the Conservatives who are the challengers to Labour in Durham. I'm hoping the Tory candidate, whoever he or she may be, actually puts a bit of effort into it. Their candidate in 2005, Ben Rogers, seemed a good bloke. There was some common ground there

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

What's the last relevant poll?

ICM/Sunday Mirror, completed 21 Sep (changes on ICM/The Guardian, 16 Sep):

LAB 39% (-1) / CON 33% (+1) / LDEM 19% (-1)

Most recent YouGov/Daily Telegraph, completed 21 Sep (changes on YouGov, The Sunday Times, 14 Sep):

LAB 39% (n/c) / CON 33% (-1) / LDEM 16% (+1)

Dave

Wow...the last poll I saw had the conservatives with a 6/7and that was in April or so...looks like Brown won't be staying just for 5 months then.

All being well he will , should he go for an Autumn poll because should the Good Ship UK sail into stormy seas then we need a steady hand at the wheel to see us through into calmer waters

Of course, I sincerely hope we'll continue to enjoy uninterrupted quarters of economic growth

Dave

[Harry Hayfield]

Polling Data since April 2007 (as that was the last poll you saw)
Number   Polling Company   Date   Con   Lab   Lib Dem   Others   Lead
130   YouGov   April 8, 2007   39   31   16   14   -8
131   Populus   April 17, 2007   37   29   20   14   -8
132   Communicate Research   April 24, 2007   36   27   22   15   -9
133   ICM   April 25, 2007   37   30   21   12   -7
134   YouGov   April 27, 2007   37   32   18   13   -5
135   YouGov   May 8, 2007   37   32   16   15   -5
136   YouGov   May 13, 2007   38   34   15   13   -4
137   Populus   May 15, 2007   37   33   17   13   -4
138   ICM   May 24, 2007   34   32   21   13   -2
139   YouGov   May 26, 2007   39   33   15   13   -6
140   Communicate Research   May 30, 2007   35   31   19   15   -4
141   Ipsos-MORI   May 31, 2007   37   35   18   10   -2
142   ICM   June 3, 2007   37   32   21   10   -5
143   Populus   June 5, 2007   36   33   17   14   -3
144   YouGov   June 17, 2007   37   35   14   14   -2
145   Ipsos-MORI   June 24, 2007   36   39   15   10   3
146   Communicate Research   June 26, 2007   37   32   18   13   -5
147   YouGov   June 27, 2007   37   36   12   15   -1
148   ICM   June 29, 2007   35   39   18   8   4
149   YouGov   June 30, 2007   35   38   15   12   3
150   Populus   July 3, 2007   34   37   18   11   3
151   ICM   July 8, 2007   35   37   17   11   2
152   ICM   July 14, 2007   33   40   19   8   7
153   YouGov   July 21, 2007   33   40   15   12   7
154   Ipsos-MORI   July 22, 2007   35   41   15   9   6
155   ICM   July 25, 2007   32   38   20   10   6
156   YouGov   July 27, 2007   32   41   16   11   9
157   Populus   July 30, 2007   33   39   15   13   6
158   Communicate Research   July 31, 2007   34   37   16   13   3
159   Ipsos-MORI   August 11, 2007   33   38   15   14   5
160   YouGov   August 12, 2007   32   42   14   12   10
161   ICM   August 13, 2007   33   39   18   10   6
162   ICM   August 27, 2007   34   39   18   9   5
163   YouGov   August 31, 2007   33   41   14   12   8
164   Ipsos-MORI   September 1, 2007   36   41   16   7   5
165   YouGov   September 2, 2007   35   38   15   12   3
165   Communicate Research   September 3, 2007   36   36   15   13   0
166   Populus   September 4, 2007   36   37   18   9   1
167   YouGov   September 15, 2007   36   39   15   10   3
168   YouGov   September 16, 2007   34   39   15   12   5
169   Communicate Research   September 17, 2007   34   37   15   14   3
169   ICM   September 19, 2007   32   40   20   8   8
170   YouGov   September 22, 2007   33   39   16   12   6
171   ICM   September 23, 2007   33   39   19   9   6

(A negative lead indicates a Con lead, a postive lead indicates a Lab lead. Lab won the last election with a lead of 3)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There is some speculation that there might be a November election.

[SPQR]

Polling Data since April 2007 (as that was the last poll you saw)
Number   Polling Company   Date   Con   Lab   Lib Dem   Others   Lead
130   YouGov   April 8, 2007   39   31   16   14   -8
131   Populus   April 17, 2007   37   29   20   14   -8
132   Communicate Research   April 24, 2007   36   27   22   15   -9
133   ICM   April 25, 2007   37   30   21   12   -7
134   YouGov   April 27, 2007   37   32   18   13   -5
135   YouGov   May 8, 2007   37   32   16   15   -5
136   YouGov   May 13, 2007   38   34   15   13   -4
137   Populus   May 15, 2007   37   33   17   13   -4
138   ICM   May 24, 2007   34   32   21   13   -2
139   YouGov   May 26, 2007   39   33   15   13   -6
140   Communicate Research   May 30, 2007   35   31   19   15   -4
141   Ipsos-MORI   May 31, 2007   37   35   18   10   -2
142   ICM   June 3, 2007   37   32   21   10   -5
143   Populus   June 5, 2007   36   33   17   14   -3
144   YouGov   June 17, 2007   37   35   14   14   -2
145   Ipsos-MORI   June 24, 2007   36   39   15   10   3
146   Communicate Research   June 26, 2007   37   32   18   13   -5
147   YouGov   June 27, 2007   37   36   12   15   -1
148   ICM   June 29, 2007   35   39   18   8   4
149   YouGov   June 30, 2007   35   38   15   12   3
150   Populus   July 3, 2007   34   37   18   11   3
151   ICM   July 8, 2007   35   37   17   11   2
152   ICM   July 14, 2007   33   40   19   8   7
153   YouGov   July 21, 2007   33   40   15   12   7
154   Ipsos-MORI   July 22, 2007   35   41   15   9   6
155   ICM   July 25, 2007   32   38   20   10   6
156   YouGov   July 27, 2007   32   41   16   11   9
157   Populus   July 30, 2007   33   39   15   13   6
158   Communicate Research   July 31, 2007   34   37   16   13   3
159   Ipsos-MORI   August 11, 2007   33   38   15   14   5
160   YouGov   August 12, 2007   32   42   14   12   10
161   ICM   August 13, 2007   33   39   18   10   6
162   ICM   August 27, 2007   34   39   18   9   5
163   YouGov   August 31, 2007   33   41   14   12   8
164   Ipsos-MORI   September 1, 2007   36   41   16   7   5
165   YouGov   September 2, 2007   35   38   15   12   3
165   Communicate Research   September 3, 2007   36   36   15   13   0
166   Populus   September 4, 2007   36   37   18   9   1
167   YouGov   September 15, 2007   36   39   15   10   3
168   YouGov   September 16, 2007   34   39   15   12   5
169   Communicate Research   September 17, 2007   34   37   15   14   3
169   ICM   September 19, 2007   32   40   20   8   8
170   YouGov   September 22, 2007   33   39   16   12   6
171   ICM   September 23, 2007   33   39   19   9   6

(A negative lead indicates a Con lead, a postive lead indicates a Lab lead. Lab won the last election with a lead of 3)

Thanks a lot.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Indications are now that there won't be an announcement on the election this week.

Also note; animal diseases again.

[Democratic Hawk]

There is some speculation that there might be a November election.

Well, that would allow the Conservatives, in the interest of fairness , to hold an uninterrupted conference

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Indications are now that there won't be an announcement on the election this week.

Also note; animal diseases again.

Problem is, compared with F&M, Bluetongue seems more difficult to contain. Frickin' midges

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Indications are now that there won't be an announcement on the election this week.

Also note; animal diseases again.

Problem is, compared with F&M, Bluetongue seems more difficult to contain. Frickin' midges

Dave

Note that we're heading into winter, slowly, but surely. Foot and Mouth likes winter. It might take off.

[Democratic Hawk]

Indications are now that there won't be an announcement on the election this week.

Also note; animal diseases again.

Problem is, compared with F&M, Bluetongue seems more difficult to contain. Frickin' midges

Dave

Note that we're heading into winter, slowly, but surely. Foot and Mouth likes winter. It might take off.

And it would seem Bluetongue thrives in Autumn

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Ipsos-MORI/The Sun (fieldwork not known as yet):

LAB 42% (+1) ; CON 34% (2); LDEM 14% (-2)

Apparently, it also contains a variant on the voting intention question asking how people would vote if Gordon Brown offered a referendum on the EU Treaty which gives LAB 49% / CON 32% [I don't know yet whether this was framed in the context of a straight two-party choice]

It’s all fanciful stuff really . Typing LAB 49%, CON 32%, LD 14% into the electoral calculus, would see, for example, Labour winning 5 of the 6 seats in Cornwall! The Lib Dems wouldn’t win a single seat anywhere

Yes, we can all safefully take this with a pinch of salt

I wonder if Murdoch wants to back Labour, with the aim of ‘persuading’ Brown into holding a referendum, to ensure that he can

Ipsos-MORI seems to fluctuate rather wildly compared with other pollsters

Dave

[Harry Hayfield]

Whilst all of these polls look very encouraging indeed, there is something we should remember. On average comparing the start of the campaign with the final result, we find that the following happens:

Conservatives No change Labour -5% Liberal Democrats +4% Others +1%

This means that if we average all the polls for September and apply those changes we get the following general election forecast:

Labour 33.82% -2.39% on 2005
Conservatives 32.45% -0.78% on 2005
Liberal Democrats 22.18% -0.45% on 2005
Others 11.55% (+3.62% on 2005)
Labour lead of 1.37%
Swing from Lab to Con of 0.81%

Forecast Con gains:
Gillingham and Rainham, Crawley, Harlow, Croydon Central, Portsmouth North, Battersea, Hove

[Democratic Hawk]

Apparenly, if Brown rules out a referendum on the EU Treaty then Labour’s lead slips to 1%.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2004240000-2007440338,00.html

Now, Murdoch’s aim is, surely, to ‘force’ Brown into holding one. The Sun may very well want to endorse Labour again and is concerned that no pledge to hold a referendum would make it untenable for it to do so.

So, we have a 1% lead if a referendum ruled-out and a 17% lead if a referendum is to be held. Where does that leave the 8% headline Labour lead?

Interesting that 38% would vote against and 32% in favour, with 15% undecided, while 15% say they wouldn’t vote. Where are these 80% who’d vote against?

Nevertheless, the campaign for a referendum is fast becoming a ‘big tent’ movement. It is imperative Brown takes heed since Labour’s electoral success, to a great degree, is dependent on it being a ‘big tent’ party.

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nick Robinson is claiming that he was been told that there is no chance of an election on the 25th of October.